Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 212039
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
339 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...GOES IMAGERY
INDICATES SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIRMASS PUSHING SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO SE TEXAS AND THE NORTHERN GULF /ALSO EVIDENT BY
ARC CLOUDS ON VIS IMAGERY/. GUIDANCE PROGS THIS DRIER AIRMASS TO
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT WITH PWATS FALLING TO AROUND 1.1
TO 1.3 INCHES. THUS...CLEARING SKIES /AFTER EARLY EVENING SCT
CONVECTION DISSIPATES/ AND SLIGHTLY MORE COMFORTABLE FEELING
CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR TONIGHT. THE DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY
LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...WILL APPROACH OUR NORTHERN
ZONES MONDAY NIGHT WHILE SLOWING ITS PROGRESSION. PRECIP SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO EWX CWA FOR MOST OF MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...BUT A FEW
SHOWERS MAY TRY TO BUILD INTO OUR FAR NE ZONES MONDAY NIGHT. MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW LIGHT PBL WIND FIELD
BECOMES...BUT HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A MET/MAV BLEND. MAX TEMPS
MONDAY ARE ON LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND /DUE
TO HIGHER SOIL MOISTURE VALUES AND EASTERLY FLOW OFF GULF/ AND ON
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE ACROSS NE ZONES. WENT WITH A GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. MON NIGHT MINS
MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TONIGHT GIVEN EXPECTED SLIGHT
INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...LONG TERM BEGINS WITH WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH CWA. GFS/ECM/NAM ALL SUGGESTING
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AS A
TONGUE OF ELEVATED MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND A MID LEVEL HIGH
OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. GFS
ENSEMBLES MEAN RH OUTPUT IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT ON THIS ONE...WHICH
SREF A MAJOR OUTLIER DRYING THINGS OUT WAY MORE THAN ALL OF THE
OTHER MODELS...SO WILL GENERALLY DISREGARD IT.  MAJORLY DRY
MIDLEVELS MAY OR MAY NOT COME INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY...WITH
MODELS GENERALLY SUGGESTING DECENT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION AND VERY LOW MOISTURE VALUES  TO THE
NORTHEAST DUE TO MIDLEVEL RIDGING EXPANDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP DRY AIR INTO TEXAS. THIS SITUATION
APPEARS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY...THOUGH THERE
REALLY SEEMS TO BE NO CONSENSUS EXACTLY WHERE THIS MOISTURE GRADIENT
WILL END UP POSITIONING ITSELF ON ANY GIVEN DAY. SUBTROPICAL JET MAY
MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY...WITH BOTH GFS AND ECM DETERMINISTIC
OUTPUT SUGGESTING THIS...BUT HARD TO TELL WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL BE
UNDER THE CONVERGENT OR DIVERGENT QUADRANT AT THIS POINT DUE TO
DIFFERING POSITIONS OF THE JET AXIS. WEAK RETURN FLOW AT THE SURFACE
MAY DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH RETURN
FLOW DUE TO WEAKNESS OF THE LEE TROUGHING OVER THE ROCKIES
SUPPRESSING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. EITHER WAY...WPC FORECAST KEEPS
STALLED OUT BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...ALBEIT SOUTH OF OUR CWA. THIS MOISTURE PURGATORY WILL
PROBABLY BECOME DECISIVELY MOISTER OVER THE WEEKEND AS A LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND WRAPS AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED
ECONUS HIGH. ECM AND DGEX ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE
DEVELOPING IT INTO A CLOSED LOW...WITH GFS MERELY SUGGESTING AN OPEN
TROUGH. EITHER WAY HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THE WATERS AND NEAR THE
COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE. BY MONDAY
NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PUMP
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AGAIN AND KILL POPS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH...DUE TO THE FINICKY NATURE OF THE DRIER AIR ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT
FOR BAYS AND WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT TO 60 NM.
MODERATE TO AT TIMES STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
IN INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT REMAIN MODERATE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  90  74  89  74  /  10  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          69  93  70  89  68  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            75  95  75  92  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             72  93  72  91  72  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          76  90  76  88  76  /  10  10  10  20  10
COTULLA           72  93  72  91  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        73  92  73  90  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       77  89  77  88  77  /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
IB/90...LONG TERM



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