Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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647
FXUS64 KCRP 261517 AAB
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1017 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Cut back POPs this morning across the northeast. Should see
redevelopment heading into the afternoon with additional heating
as moisture remains suffient across the area. No other changes
made.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 625 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...

See aviation discussion below for the 12Z TAFs.

AVIATION...

Increasing moisture into S TX will lead to isold/sct shra/tsras
today through Sat. Brief MVFR...possibly IFR...conditions will be
possible in and around the convection, mainly across the eastern
portions of S TX. There may also be a brief period during the
early morning when MVFR cigs dvlp. Otherwise a majority of the
TAF period will be VFR, especially for LRD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 419 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...

Rain chances will be on the increase today and Saturday as moisture
deepens across the region. A mid/upper level high pressure system is
progged to remain quasi-stationary across the SE U.S. with a mid
level trough developing across east and southern texas and an upper
level weak low at 250mb developing to the south of the CWA. This
will provide weak upper support for convection across mainly the
eastern CWA and marine zones through the short term. The deepest
moisture, best lift and CAPE will generally remain across the
eastern CWA and over the marine areas, as well. In addition, a weak
sfc trough is forecast to dvlp along the coast providing low level
convergence along the coast during the early morning hours. A weak
easterly flow is progged across a majority of the area by the
afternoon. Am expecting mainly early morning convection over the
marine zones and coastal areas then shifting inland through this
afternoon, with a repeat tonight and Sat.

LONG TERM (Saturday night through Thursday)...

The mid level low that forms near the upper Texas coast Saturday
will move slowly southwest toward the region Saturday night. This
low will move into Coastal Bend on Sunday and drift to the southwest
into the interior portions of Deep South Texas Monday. The GFS and
ECMWF even show a very weak surface low pressure area movingdown the
coast associated with this mid level low Sunday and Monday. High
moisture will accompany this system with precipitable water values
increasing to around 2.25 inches Sunday into Monday. Chance PoPs
will be in the forecast for the coastal plains/waters Sunday into
Sunday night. With the mid level low position to the southwest
interacting with deep moisture, went with likely PoPs for Monday for
the Coastal Bend into the eastern portions of the Brush Country. The
mid level low will weaken as it moves westward into Mexico on
Tuesday but adequate moisture will remain over the region to produce
scattered convection. Moisture will decrease a bit by mid week but
could still see isolated to scattered diurnal convection.

As for Invest 99L, the tropical wave looks very disorganized on
satellite imagery this morning. The GFS and ECMWF continue to be in
disagreement with each other and with previous runs on whether
system will organize and whether it will move into the Gulf of
Mexico. Model consensus still keeps the area of low pressure over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico through week. Still quite a bit of
uncertainty regarding this system.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    93  76  92  76  92  /  20  20  40  20  40
Victoria          91  75  90  73  88  /  40  40  50  40  50
Laredo            98  76  98  76  97  /  10  10  10  10  10
Alice             96  75  94  73  94  /  20  10  40  20  30
Rockport          91  78  90  77  88  /  30  30  40  30  50
Cotulla           96  76  95  75  93  /  10  10  20  10  20
Kingsville        95  75  94  74  93  /  20  10  30  20  30
Navy Corpus       91  79  89  78  90  /  20  20  40  30  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM



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