Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 240542 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1242 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE FOG CHANNEL SHOWING SCATTERED MVFR/IFR
CLOUDS OVER SOUTH TEXAS. AM EXPECTING CIGS TO FALL TO IFR AROUND
09Z EASTERN TERMINALS...AND MVFR AT KLRD ABOUT 10Z. CIGS IMPROVE
TO MVFR ABOUT 15Z...THEN VFR BEFORE 18Z. SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES
KLRD AROUND NOON...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH. FARTHER
EAST...GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHEAST WITH SEA-BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY
KCRP AND KALI. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT EASTERLY AFTER SUNSET...
MEANING LOW CIGS AND/OR MVFR FOG WILL DEVELOP BEFORE END OF
TERMINAL FORECAST. FOR NOW...WITH WITH MVFR BR AT KALI AND KVCT
WITH MVFR CIGS AT KCRP OCCURRING AOA 25/02Z. 12Z TERMINAL FORECAST
WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THIS MORE ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 828 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS EVENING IS THE THREAT
OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW CWA. IMPRESSIVE SUPERCELL TRACKING
ACROSS MAVERICK COUNTY EAST OF EAGLE PASS ATTM. THIS STORM
DEVELOPED ALONG LOW LVL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS STRETCHED ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE AND IS BEING ENHANCED BY MID LVL S/W AND DIVERGENCE
IN UPR JET STRUCTURE. AS THIS STORM MOVES ESE...IT WILL ENCOUNTER
A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND STRENGTHENING CAP...AND SHOULD
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE. QUESTION IS WHEN/WHERE. EXTRAPOLATION FROM
THE CURRENT STORM MOTION BRINGS THE STORM INTO LASALLE COUNTY
BETWEEN 10-11PM. THE LATEST HRRR/ARW MODELS ALSO SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO AND TIME FRAME. THUS EXTENDED POPS A BIT FURTHER EAST.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY BETWEEN PORT ARANSAS AND
PORT LAVACA WL QUICKLY DEVELOP/SPREAD INLAND THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE COASTAL BEND. ALI...CRP AND VCT TAF LOCATIONS WL BE MVFR BY
02-03Z AND IFR BY 06-08Z. MVFR CEILINGS WL REACH LRD BY 08Z.
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WL RISE TO VFR LVLS BY 15-16Z THURSDAY. ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WEST OF DRT (INITIATED BY THE SIERRA
MADRE) WL MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
NORTH OF LRD BY MIDNIGHT DUE TO A STRENGTHENING CAP.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS HAS SHIFTED TO THE
WEST...WITH THE 85H THETA-E RIDGE AXIS FROM WEST OF RIO GRANDE
INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN COAHUILA. THE LATEST HRRR
HI-RES NMM AND TEXAS TECH WRF HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON
CURRENT CONVECTION GOING ON WEST OF DEL RIO. THE MODELS SHOW
THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND COULD REACH THE
WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE OZARKS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...BUT MODELS ALSO SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE
STRONG WARMING AND DRYING IN THE LAYER FROM 850-500 MB AS WINDS
VEER TO WESTERLY ON THURSDAY. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE STRONGER BUT EXPECT CAP WILL HOLD AND DID NOT
MENTION THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
FARTHER EAST...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND STALL. WEAK EAST WINDS AND HIGH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FOG OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL TRACK ACROSS S TX ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE
FCST ALONG WITH VERY WARM TEMPS. A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL DIG ACROSS
THE ROCKIES SAT WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACKING TOWARD S TX.
MODELS PROG VERY LITTLE PRECIP IN AND AROUND THE CWA ON SAT...AND
WITH A STRONG CAP IN PLACE...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP. DO FEEL
THE WESTERN CWA WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP BASED ON MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...THUS KEPT A SILENT 10 POP ACROSS THE
W FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED A 20 POP ON SUNDAY ACROSS
THE NE CWA DUE TO A DRYLINE MOVG E ACROSS THE AREA AND PROVIDING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...ESPECIALLY IF THE SEA BREEZE IS ACTIVATED. IN
ADDITION...THE MODELS SHOW THE LEAST CIN AND BEST INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE NE ALONG WITH PWAT`S OF 1.6 INCHES. THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS PROGD
TO BE MVG TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS BY SUNDAY AND A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT
WITH THE POLAR JET ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS
DEEP S TX AND MEX...WILL PROVIDE MOD/STRONG UPPER SUPPORT ACROSS S
TX. BEST DYNAMICS SHOULD REMAIN N OF THE AREA...BUT WITH THE
PROXIMITY TO THE NE CWA...FEEL AT LEAST ISOLD TSRA`S WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SUN. ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE AREA LEADING TO HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND BRUSH COUNTRY. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE
TRACKS...WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW HOT THE COASTAL PLAINS WILL GET BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVG INTO THE SRN
PLAINS...SFC WINDS ACROSS S TX WILL BECOME BREEZY ON SAT WITH
ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL
RELAX THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE DRYLINE BDRY MVS E. SURFACE LOW TO MOVE
EAST FROM NORTHEASTERN MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY.
MOISTURE WILL DECREASE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS COOLER AIR MASS
WILL LOWER THE TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN LOWER TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT AND WILL
REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    68  87  70  88  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          66  85  69  87  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            73  96  73  99  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             68  91  70  92  72  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          70  79  71  80  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           68  94  70  94  71  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        68  90  70  92  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       69  80  71  81  73  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION




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