Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 241128 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
628 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...See Aviation section for 12Z TAFs.


.AVIATION...Morning sounding at CRP indicated low level jet
slightly above 50 knots around 3 kft. Satellite imagery shows
stratus deck covering most of the region except for LRD area.
Expect areas of stratus will cover region with MVFR ceilings
during the morning hours. Frontal boundary will be slower to reach
South Texas and allow stronger winds to affect the coastal plains
today. Breezy to near windy conditions should persist today.

Scattered showers/MVFR vsbys expected to develop over the coastal
plains by 14-15Z ahead of the front/dryline moving into the Brush
Country. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible over the
northern Coastal Bend to Victoria Crossroads in the afternoon.
Storms will provide MVFR vsbys and gusty winds. Expect activity
will diminish in 23Z-01Z time frame with VFR conditions prevalent
through the evening hours. Winds will become light and with high
boundary layer moisture, expect areas of fog/IFR vsbys/ceilings
will form over the inland coastal plains by 08Z with dense fog
possible along ALI-BEA-VCT line.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 414 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...

Satellite imagery shows the mid to upper level low over southeast
Colorado. This system is expected to move east-southeast to north
central Oklahoma by 00Z Saturday. The southern extension of the
associated cold front was located east of the Permian Basin to the
Big Bend early this morning. Appears the cold front will be
slower to move into the region and will stall over the coastal
plains this afternoon. This will allow stronger winds/breezy
conditions to continue for the coastal plains today. Strong
inversion will remain in place through the morning hours, so kept
thunder out of the forecast. Low level jet of 50 knots over the
coastal areas early this morning will move to the east and weaken
some with the approach of the boundary. Amount of cloud cover over
the region leads to uncertainty on amount of instability that can
be realized later today. Hi-res models/CAMs are not too excited
on convective potential this afternoon with a weak broken line of
storms pushing through mainly the northeast part of the forecast
area. But latest HRRR/RAP models indicate there could be a window
of opportunity for strong storms to occur this afternoon from the
northern Coastal Bend to the Victoria Crossroads. Mixed layer CAPE
values are forecast to be around 1500 J/kg along with 50 knots of
0-6 km shear. Both models show weakening CIN from Beeville to
Victoria from 20-00Z. Even though SPC moved Marginal risk of
severe to the northeast, will mention possibility of storms with
gusty wind potential for areas northeast of Interstate 37 this
afternoon. Kept PoPs similar to previous forecast with likely PoPs
in the Victoria area for today.

The upper low will move to the Ozarks by Saturday morning. Mid
level subsidence and drying will move across the region tonight
into Saturday. Enough boundary layer moisture will remain over the
coastal plains and eastern Brush Country for fog to develop late
tonight and continue through early Saturday morning. Weak front
pushes through the northern part of the area Saturday morning
before becoming diffuse. Onshore flow will develop by the
afternoon for the coastal plains.

LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...

Active pattern across the lower 48 through the medium range with a
series of fast moving systems rippling across the country.  First
short wave Sunday has little to no moisture to work with so other
than an isolated shower in our northeast areas expect no rain.  Weak
surface boundary trailing this system will wash out over the area
Monday with strong southerly flow returning Tuesday as stronger short
wave digs into the southern Rockies.  This second wave has more
moisture to work with along with better forcing for lift so rain
chances will be better. Highest rain chances, capped at 40% for now,
over the northeast in the deepest moisture.  PoPs then tapered back
to 20 further south.  The Wednesday system has a chance to
overachieve rain-wise if it digs just a little further southeast
which would increase chances of a more solid convective line to
affect the area. Another wave then digs into the southwest late in
the week with another increase in moisture and southerly flow ahead
of it.  As for temperatures it looks like no end in sight to the
unseasonably warm to hot conditions.  WPC temperatures remain in
line with blended guidance and made only minor changes.


With slower movement of the frontal boundary, moderate to strong
onshore flow will persist through the day. Extended SCA for the
bays and nearshore waters through 00Z Saturday, and extended SCA
for offshore waters to 06Z Saturday. Winds will weaken overnight
with seas slowly subsiding. A weak onshore flow will develop by
Saturday afternoon.


Corpus Christi    85  64  86  67  85  /  30  10  10  10  10
Victoria          81  61  83  64  85  /  60  20  10  10  10
Laredo            90  60  92  67  96  /  10   0   0   0  10
Alice             87  60  90  65  91  /  30  10   0   0  10
Rockport          80  69  82  70  81  /  40  20  10  10  10
Cotulla           89  55  89  63  94  /  20   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        86  62  89  66  89  /  30  10  10  10  10
Navy Corpus       80  68  83  69  80  /  30  10  10  10  10


GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening For the
     following zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port
     Aransas...Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas
     out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda
     Ship Channel out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday For the following
     zones: Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60
     NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel
     from 20 to 60 NM.



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