Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 230424
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1024 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AND UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. ALSO ALLOWED THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO
EXPIRE AS WINDS ARE CURRENTLY OFFSHORE. THE MAIN LINE OF
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ABOUT TO EXIT THE OFFSHORE WATERS. AN
AREA OF LIGHT TO MOD RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED -TSRA`S CONTINUES
BEHIND THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION...BUT SHOULD ALSO END FROM W TO
E OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HRS WITH CLRING SKIES BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED AS MID/UPPER
LEVELS CLR FIRST AND BEFORE THE DRIER NEAR SFC AIRMASS FILTERS
INTO S TX.

ALSO SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 06Z TAF UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...WILL KEEP MENTION OF VCTS IN CRP-VCT TERMINALS THROUGH
07-08Z RESPECTIVELY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVHD.  THEN SKIES
CLEAR OUT AS A DRY SUBSIDENT AIRMASS SETTLES INTO SOUTH TEXAS. COULD
BE SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG IN THE COASTAL BEND TERMINALS BETWEEN
09-13Z SUN DUE TO RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 818 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...HAVE EXTENDED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 557 TO
INCLUDE THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO VCT COUNTY DUE TO A
BAND OF STORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM SAT`S AREA TO MCMULLEN
MOVG E.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE MARINE DISCUSSION FOR LATEST UPDATES.

MARINE...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS UNTIL 12Z
SUNDAY. MODELS WERE PROGING MOD TO STRONG WLY WINDS CONTINUING
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT...THEN DIMINISHING THRU MID
MORNING SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE A TAD SLOWER TO SUBSIDE AND MAY CONT AT
ADVISORY LEVELS BEYOND 12Z FOR AN ADDITIONAL HOUR OR SO.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...CONDITIIONS WILL CONTINUE TO VARY FROM VFR TO IFR DUE
TO ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF S TX THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FROM W TO E AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS S TX AND SHIFTS THE CONVECTION GENERALLY E.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA UNTIL 10 PM. ONCE THE CONVECTION EXITS S TX...A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT PATCHY FOG PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT DUE TO LIGHT W WINDS AND DRYING ALOFT. NEAR SFC MOISTURE
IS FCST TO DECREASE TOWARD SUNRISE...ENDING THE FOG POTENTIAL. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/
STREAMLINE DATA REVEAL AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THE GFS PROG STG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
(700-300MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE) ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE
COMBINATION OF STG FORCING AND ABOVE NORMAL PWAT VALUES OVER
CWA/MSA (CIRA LAYERED PWAT TOTAL) WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST
SCT/NUMEROUS CONVECTION TNGT. A SQUALL LINE IS ANTICIPATED TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD ACRS SOUTH TX TNGT (CONSISTENT WITH LOCAL
WRF-ARW.) IN THE INTERIM...DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE ALSO PSBL
GIVEN ANTICIPATED STG VERTICAL SHEAR/HIGH CAPE/BRN VALUES IN THE
SUPERCELLUAR RANGE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CURRENTLY IN EFFECT
UNTIL 04Z SUNDAY FOR LASALLE...MCMULLEN...WEBB...DUVAL...AND JIM
WELLS COUNTIES. CONCUR WITH THE NAM DETERMINISTC THAT MUCH DRIER
AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FOREGOING UPPER
SYSTEM AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. BRIEF PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/ERN CWA OWING TO NEAR SFC MSTR/DRY
ALOFT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACRS
THE PLAINS AND CONTRIBUTE TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE
CWA/MSA SUNDAY NIGHT. NO PCPN EXPECTED ALONG THIS FRONT OWING TO
DRY CONDITIONS.

MARINE...RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS THIS EVENING BASED ON ONSHORE
WIND/WAVE PERIODS/SWELL HEIGHTS. SCA CONDITIONS REMAIN FOR THE SRN
NEARSHORE/OFFSHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH WIND MIGHT FALL
BELOW 20KT OVER THE NEARSHORE BEFORE 06Z SUNDAY...7FT SEAS ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER PORITONS OF THE SRN NEARSHORE.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...DESPITE A COLD FRONT AND
REINFORCING RIDGE IN THE LONGTERM FORECAST...WILL SEE MAINLY BENIGN
WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIAL COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MOST OF THE
WAY THROUGH THE AREA AT THE ONSET OF LONGTERM PERIOD. WILL SEE
COOLING TEMPERATURES WITH WEAK CAA AT THE SURFACE...HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY AS A REINFORCING RIDGE SETTLES IN. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN WARM INTO THE 50S FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS ALL WEEK IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. WE/LL VERY
SLOWLY BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES LATE
IN THE WEEK AS A SOUTHERLY WIND DEVELOPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  80  52  69  48  /  20   0   0  10   0
VICTORIA          61  78  48  66  41  /  20   0   0  10  10
LAREDO            53  84  51  71  47  /  10   0   0   0   0
ALICE             58  82  51  70  45  /  20   0   0  10   0
ROCKPORT          65  77  54  67  47  /  20   0   0  10  10
COTULLA           53  82  46  68  43  /  10   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        60  81  52  70  46  /  20   0   0  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       64  77  57  69  53  /  20   0   0  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
JM/75...AVIATION





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