Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 230919
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
419 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...

Already starting to see some convective activity along an old
frontal boundary to our south, in BRO`s CWA. This activity extends
offshore into parts of the offshore Middle Texas Coastal waters
which is where it should remain this morning. A bit farther north,
across parts of the Brush Country, an old outflow from last evenings
convection is slipping southward and allowing for some weak showers
to develop. These should continue to move southward through sunrise
before beginning to dissipate.

Even if the aforementioned outflow makes it through the entire
region we should still have plenty of time to refuel/recover for the
potential severe convection later this afternoon/evening across much
of the region. Current thinking is that an initial shot of mid-
afternoon convection develops ahead of the frontal boundary along
parts of the Coastal Bend back into Victoria Crossroads with
possible sea breeze interaction aided by outflows from the
convection to our south. Still the main action is along the cold
front later this afternoon through the evening hours.

MUCAPE is projected to exceed 3000 J/kg across much of the region
this afternoon with surface dewpoints hovering in the upper-60s
north to the low/mid-70s south. Not seeing much of a cap in place
this afternoon/evening, even with the daytime cloud cover. With the
approach of the mid-level trough/cold pool we should be able to see
any cap fizzle and allow the parcels to grow upscale as the better
forcing/ascent arrives along the frontal boundary. The cold pool
will also help to steepen the mid-level lapse rates making for
fatter CAPE within the hail growth zone and therefore larger hail
potential. Hail looks to be our biggest impact with any of the
storms tonight with damaging winds coming in second, especially with
DCAPE values close to 1000 J/kg. By later tonight, closer to
midnight, the convection should be pushing offshore and we begin to
dry out north to south.

Wednesday looks much more pleasant with a fresh airmass in place.
Quite honestly its pretty tough for us to get low/mid-50s dewpoints
across the region in late May and there is a chance this could be it
for quite some time. Just sayin`.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...

Mostly clear skies and cool conditions expected Wednesday night,
then a rapid warming trend and increasing humidity takes place
Thu/Fri as ridge aloft dominates S TX weather and as onshore flow
strengthens. Onshore winds are expected to be breezy across the
Coastal Bend Thu afternoon with advisory conditions expected across
the gulf waters by Thu night in response to deepening low pressure
across the central plains. Breezy onshore winds are progged to
continue Fri and Sat along with warm to hot conditions. Heat indices
may reach 105 to 110 at times from Thursday through Sunday, mainly
across the Rio Grande Plains, Brush Country and inland Coastal Bend.
Not expecting precip until possibly Sun when a long wave trough
swings SE and pushes the ridge southward. Rain chances look better
by Sun night into Mon with deeper moisture in place, a possible cold
front and embedded short waves tracking across the region. This will
also lead to more clouds and slightly cooler temps for Memorial Day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    87  63  86  69  89  /  30  50   0   0   0
Victoria          86  59  86  65  89  /  40  50   0   0   0
Laredo            91  64  88  70  98  /  20  30   0   0   0
Alice             89  62  88  66  93  /  30  50  10   0   0
Rockport          87  66  85  73  86  /  30  50  10   0   0
Cotulla           87  59  88  66  97  /  30  30   0   0   0
Kingsville        89  63  88  67  91  /  30  50  10   0   0
Navy Corpus       87  68  84  73  87  /  30  50  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

GH/77...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM


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