Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 252056
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
356 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...INSTABILITY RESIDES
ACROSS THE AREA BUT WITH SOUTHERLY-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING
JUST OFF THE SURFACE...CAPPING IS INHIBITING A LOT OF DEVELOPMENT.
BEST DYNAMICS REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.
HOWEVER THAT IS NOT TO SAY THAT THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES TOWARD
VICTORIA COULD NOT SEE FURTHER SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE SQUALL
LINE. THE CAP IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES AND ANY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING FARTHER SOUTH MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THAT BEING SAID...ANY STORMS MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO THE CONTINUATION OF THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. FARTHER WEST...WITH THE LACK OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY...HAVE
CANCELLED THE WATCH. AS A RECAP...THE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
GOLIAD...VICTORIA...CALHOUN...REFUGIO AND ARANSAS COUNTIES. WITH
THE MIDLEVEL LOW PULLING TO THE NORTHEAST...DRY WARM AIR WILL
WRAP AROUND FROM BEHIND WHICH SHOULD QUICKLY END CONVECTION
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...FOR THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ARE SETTING UP. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE UNDERNEATH THE CAP IN THE
MORNING...BUT THE WARM LAYER SHOULD KEEP NICE CONDITIONS. GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
BEFORE FINALLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
WARM SIDE...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
EAST...TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A WK MID/UPR RDG AXIS WL
BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE CWA ON WED AND PROVIDE FOR A MOSTLY DRY AND
WARMER FCST.  A BROAD WK MID/UPR TROUGH AXIS ANCHORED TO OUR WEST IS
THEN EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITSELF FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL FORCING WL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS TROUGH
AXES...BLV THERE WL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE DEPTH AND SVRL WK
EMBEDDED S/WVS THAT WL CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE OVERALL BEST RAIN
CHANCES WL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND NORTHERN
COASTAL BEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BEGINS TO
CHANGE AGAIN AS THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS FINALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE
AREA...ALLOWING A STRENGTHENING MID/UPR RDG AXIS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST.  THIS SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH THE MOISTURE DEPTH
AS SUBSIDENCE SLOWLY TAKES HOLD.  KEPT TEMPS ABV CLIMO FOR A CHANGE
ON WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE RDG AXIS BUILDING IN ALOFT.  TRENDED TEMPS
DOWNWARD TO EITHER CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO THEREAFTER GIVEN
THE INCREASED CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  88  76  88  78  /  30  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          72  88  76  88  75  /  40  10  10  20  10
LAREDO            75  97  76  95  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             74  92  76  92  77  /  30  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          76  85  78  86  80  /  40  10  10  20  10
COTULLA           73  93  74  92  75  /  10  10  10  20  10
KINGSVILLE        76  90  76  90  77  /  30  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       77  86  78  86  79  /  30  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...REFUGIO...VICTORIA.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN
     PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
MB/80...LONG TERM



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