Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 310558 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1258 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE PAST HOUR ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY SOUTHEAST TO EAST
OF SAN ANTONIO. HI-RES MODELS AND 00Z NAM/GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS THIS LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ZONE MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION LIKELY
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE AREA WITH THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP BY 11-13Z WITH SCATTERED SHRA OR TSRA
PROVIDING MVFR VSBYS THROUGH 16-17Z. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER
OVER THE COASTAL BEND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AND BRUSH COUNTRY UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR AND CLEAR SKIES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLIER THIS
EVENING HAVE DISSIPATED. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
DID BUMP UP POPS TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTH AS HIGH RES MODELS
SUGGEST SHOWERS/STORMS MAY IMPACT THE NORTHERN ZONES BEFORE 12Z.
ALSO...LIGHT WINDS PRIOR TO THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
BRUSH COUNTRY AND COASTAL PLAINS. UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT AND NO
ADDITIONAL CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.


&&


.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION





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