Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 012327
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
627 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEAKENING AND MOVING
TO THE WEST...HAVE REMOVED MENTION FROM EASTERN TAFS...BUT
INCLUDED VCSH FOR LRD FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THESE SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY APPROACH THE AREA BEFORE DISSIPATING COMPLETELY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE PRE-DAWN TO SUNRISE HOURS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SHOULD SCATTER OUR DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS
AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY. COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATER MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/GFS AND NAM STREAMLINES DEPICT THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AT
THE COAST WITH SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR WEST OF THE
AXIS. EXPECT THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY YET
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE COAST (BASED ON THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.)
GFS/NAM DETERMINISTIC MAINTAIN HIGH PWAT VALUES OVER THE MSA. THE
PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH AXIS/MSTR SUGGEST ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION
OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA DRG THE PERIOD. YET THE DETERMINISTIC NWP
MODELS PREDICT WEAK 700-300MB Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE OVER THE REGION
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. NEVERTHELESS...WL MAINTAIN LOW POPS OVER THE
ERN CWA/SLIGHTLY GREATER OVER THE MSA DRG THE PERIOD...CONVECTION
MAINLY OVER THE MSA TNGT/EARLY WEDNESDAY (NIL DETERMINISTIC CIN
OVER THE MSA) WITH CONVECTION OVER THE ERN CWA OCCURRING MAINLY
DRG THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS PROG UPPER LEVEL TROF
AXIS TO BE EAST OF THE CWA DRAPED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF ON THU.
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS BEING OVER THE GULF
WATERS. HOWEVER...PWATS ARE PROGD TO BE AROUND 1.8 INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA WHICH COMBINED WITH MOD INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...IS SUFFICIENT FOR SCT CONVECTION. THE BETTER CHC OF
CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE WATERS AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES THU
MORNING THEN SHIFTING INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE THU AFTERNOON.
LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVG
W ACROSS THE FAR S PART OF TX AND NE MEX ON FRI WITH THE UPPER HIGH
SLIDING E ACROSS NRN TX PER THE GFS. THE ECMWF HAS THE CTR OF THE
HIGH MEANDERING ACROSS N AND W TX. AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH UPPER
SUPPORT...BUT BASED ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...AM
EXPECTING A REPEAT OF SCT CONVECTION ACROSS THE E ON FRI AND AGAIN
SAT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF PROG THE UPPER HIGH TO BE MORE IN
CONTROL BY SUNDAY MAKING THE POP FCST A BIT MORE TRICKY. FOR NOW
KEPT A CHC ACROSS THE E DUE TO AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS PERSIST MON/TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  90  76  91  77  /  20  20  20  30  20
VICTORIA          73  89  73  90  74  /  20  30  20  40  20
LAREDO            76  96  76  99  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             74  93  73  94  74  /  20  30  10  40  10
ROCKPORT          79  87  77  89  78  /  20  20  20  30  30
COTULLA           75  95  75  97  74  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        75  93  75  93  76  /  20  30  20  40  20
NAVY CORPUS       78  87  78  88  79  /  20  20  20  30  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION



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