Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 231649 AAB
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1049 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Adjusted gridded moisture grids to fall more in line with current
observations. Did not mess with the high temperatures today. Quick
calculation showing 850mb temperature of 21.7C this afternoon
results in about a 34C air temperature at CRP (assuming dry
adiabat), so that we are in the ballpark.

Main issue in the evening package and aviation discussion will be
the fog tonight. Will take a look at that now. The needed gridded
products are updated (PFM, AFM, PFW)...since today`s highs (and
remainder of forecast) was not changed, did not need to update the
ZFP or SFT products at this time.


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 557 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Updated for 12z aviation.

AVIATION...

Poor flight conditions will continue for a few hours at ALI/CRP/VCT
as patchy dense fog will impact the terminals Vsbys may be reduced
to a quarter of a mile or less at times. Fog is expected to mix
out by 14z/15z with improving conditions thereafter. Southeast
winds will increase around 18z with gusts between 20 and 25 knots
during the afternoon at ALI/CRP/VCT. Fog may be possible again
tonight, likely after 06z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 402 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...

Patchy fog exists this morning across the Victoria Crossroads into
the northern Coastal Bend. Some of this fog could be dense at
times, but at this time is not widespread enough to warrant a
dense fog advisory.

Upper trough moves out of the Four Corners region today, with
upper ridge shifting to the east. At the surface, trough/dryline
feature should be able to mix into at least the Brush Country.
This will result in very warm conditions today, especially across
western parts of the area where much drier air will reside.
Temperatures over the Rio Grande should be able to top 100 degrees
with 90s extending across the Brush Country into the Coastal
Plains.

Another round of fog may be possible late tonight across the Victoria
Crossroads as winds become light. Otherwise, temperatures will be
in the upper 50s to lower 60s tonight.

Upper trough continues to move eastward on Friday with the
associated cold front moving through the area. Despite the front
moving through, temperatures will be in the 80s for most locations
tomorrow. Across the southern Coastal Bend, temps could reach the
lower 90s. No rainfall is expected with this front.

LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...

As one cold front pushes offshore Friday night, a second weaker cold
front pushes south into the area. This second front will bring
breezy northeast winds on Saturday along with briefly cooler
temperatures. High pressure then quickly builds later Saturday into
Saturday night shifting winds to the southeast across the region.
This is where models are changing a bit from earlier runs. All
guidance options are pretty well in agreement on moisture return a
bit more robust than previous runs had been indicating, with a
ribbon of moisture tracking up the eastern Mexico coast and into
portions of South Texas as a surface low develops over the Texas
panhandle. Previous model runs had kept much drier air over most of
South Texas. Have added in a 20 pop for portions of the area on
Sunday though confidence is not very high yet due to the relatively
significant changes in guidance. GFS model brings a col front
through the area as the aforementioned surface low exits the region,
but other models are stalling the front at this point.

Toward the middle of the week things get a little more active and
complicated. An upper level trough will be moving through the
central part of the country with a surface low through the upper
midwest. This is expected to bring another cold front through Texas
with a bit more moisture to work with, thus have slight chance to
chance pops in the forecast. Some indications of an even wetter
pattern developing late in the week.

Expect cooler temperatures on Saturday with highs back into the
70s...still a few degrees above normal for the area. Will then see a
warming trend through Tuesday as the warm/moist southeasterly flow
increases. Highs on Tuesday could be back around 90 degrees for much
of the area. Temperatures Wednesday should be a bit cooler with more
clouds and rain chances.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    92  63  88  52  75  /   0   0   0   0   0
Victoria          88  62  84  45  72  /   0   0   0   0   0
Laredo           102  60  88  51  79  /   0   0   0   0   0
Alice             96  62  90  49  78  /   0   0   0   0   0
Rockport          83  65  84  55  72  /   0   0   0   0   0
Cotulla          100  57  88  44  76  /   0   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        99  63  91  50  77  /   0   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       79  66  83  58  73  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM


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