Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 290536
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1236 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED OF 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AND MOVE TOWARD ALI TAF
SITE. CRP SHOULD START SEEING SHOWERS NEARING CRP IN THE NEXT FEW
HORUS. OVERALL...HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY...WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
FOR ALI/CRP...AND FOR MUCH OF THE DAYTIME FOR VCT. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING SOME STORMS COULD DEVELOP AND/OR MOVE AS FAR WEST AS LRD
IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE TEMPO MVFR CIGS FOR DURING THE DAY...NEAR
SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 802 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWED A VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH PWATS OF 2.25 INCHES. MODELS PROG
THE PWATS TO INCREASE TO 2.3-2.4 INCHES BY 12Z FRI. THE SURFACE LOW
LOCATED BETWEEN CRP AND BRO WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN WAVES OF
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRI. MODELS PROG MOD TO STRONG
CONVERGENCE DVLPG OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE
CONVECTION. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH WPC WITH RESPECT TO POSSIBLE
HEAVY RAIN AND GIVEN THE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS...HAVE
UPDATED THE POPS TO EXTEND 60 PERCENT FARTHER INLAND DURING THE
06Z-18Z TIME FRAME AND TO MENTION HVY RAINFALL WITH THE HIGHER
POPS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH 18Z FRI. ALSO BUMPED QPF VALUES UP A
BIT RESULTING IN EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS TONIGHT THROUGH FRI OF
AROUND 1 INCH ALONG THE COAST...MAINLY S OF PORT ARANSAS WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND DUE TO LESS INSTABILITY. DUE TO THE
DEEP MOISTURE AND EXPECTED SLOW MOVG CONVECTION...SOME LOCATIONS
COULD SEE 2-3 INCHES. DUE TO THE DROUGHT AND HIGH FFG VALUES...AM
NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FLOODING...BUT COULD SEE LOCALIZED
FLOODING IN SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND
AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. UPDATES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...RAIN CHANCES STILL
LOOK PRETTY GOOD FOR THE NEXT THREE PERIODS ESPECIALLY OVER THE
AREAS NEAR THE COAST...WHERE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRESIDE AND
MORNING SURFACE FORCING BETWEEN THE GULF AND COAST WILL PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS (GOOD LARGE SCALE LIFT TOO WITH
TROPICAL LOW). THUS...WENT HIGHEST WITH POPS NEAR THE COAST AND
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LOWER
RAIN CHANCES FARTHER WEST AND NORTHWEST. ANY RAINFALL TONIGHT WILL
NOT LIKELY IMPACT TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH (WITH RESPECT TO OVERNIGHT
LOWS)...CONSIDERING LITTLE EVAPORATIVE COOLING AVAILABLE WITH
TROPICAL AIRMASS. AM GOING SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOS NUMBERS FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS...WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM LOW
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING MOST LOCATIONS. SHOULD SEE A BIT COOLER
HIGH TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS ON FRIDAY...GIVEN MORE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION. AFTER COORDINATING WITH BROWNSVILLE...DECIDED TO
EXTEND THE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY...GIVEN THAT
ONSHORE WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS AND SUSTAINED SWELLS OF 2-3 FEET
AND AROUND 8 SECONDS (AND COULD GET HIGHER) PUTS THE AREA IN A
HIGH RISK. AT THIS TIME...LOOKS LIKE COASTAL FLOODING WILL NOT BE
AN ISSUE...AS ALTHOUGH LEVELS ARE FROM 0.5 TO 1.0 FEET ABOVE
PREDICTED...THEY ARE STILL WELL BELOW 2 FEET (AND HAVE BEEN
DECREASING IN THE PAST 24 HOURS). FINALLY...WITH LACK OF RAIN OVER
THE PAST FEW WEEKS...WAY TOO EARLY TO ISSUE A FLOOD OR FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN AREAS AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
MIDNIGHT SHIFT CAN RE-EVALUATE PERTINENT ISSUES FOR FRIDAY MORNING
PACKAGE.

MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW FOR
THE MOST PART WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...MORE NUMEROUS
FARTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE TROPICAL WAVE REMNANT. WINDS AND SEAS
HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
CONTINUES TO BE HANDLING OF POPS...WITH CHANCES OF PRECIP PERSISTING
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL LOW BECOMES
ELONGATED AND TRANSITIONS INTO MORE OF A SHEAR AXIS. WHERE THIS
SHEAR AXIS PLACES ITSELF WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON WHERE GREATEST
CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR. ATTM FEEL THAT AXIS WILL BE DRAPED
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS UP TO VICTORIA ON
SATURDAY...WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LOCATED TO THE
EAST OF THE AXIS. THUS...HAVE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF
CWA FOR SATURDAY WITH CHANCES DECREASING SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING
AND DRIER AIR ALOFT BUILD INTO THE REGION. PWATS ARE PROG TO LOWER
SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO LABOR DAY ALONG WITH FLAT MID
LEVEL RIDGING OCCURRING. THUS...WITH STRONGER SUBSIDENCE AND A DRIER
AIRMASS...HAVE KEPT LABOR DAY DRY AT THIS TIME. A TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
SOUTHERN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DEEPER MOISTURE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO OUR REGION BY MID WEEK. 12Z GUIDANCE SUITES HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH WITH WAVE WITH BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA. AFTERNOON TEMPS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE HOTTEST ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH A MODERATION OF TEMPS BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS DEEP
MOISTURE ARRIVES AND MID LEVEL RIDGING RELAXES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    93  78  94  78  96  /  60  40  30  20  30
VICTORIA          96  77  95  76  98  /  50  30  30  20  30
LAREDO            98  80 100  79 103  /  30  30  20  20  10
ALICE             93  77  95  76  99  /  50  40  30  10  20
ROCKPORT          92  80  92  79  93  /  60  40  30  20  30
COTULLA           97  77  99  76 101  /  30  20  20  20  10
KINGSVILLE        93  78  95  78  98  /  60  40  30  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       91  80  92  80  92  /  60  50  30  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION






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