Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 011619
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1119 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...

A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS THIS MORNING TO LOWER POPS THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON EVERYWHERE EXCEPT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. 12Z CRP
SOUNDING SHOWS A DECENT LOW-LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE AROUND 900MB
TOWARDS 850MB WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ALOFT. THE BIGGEST
ISSUE...AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...WHAT IS THE FOCUS. WEAK
CONVERGENCE LINE NORTHEAST OF PORT ARANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME THE BETTER CAPPING WE HAVE IN PLACE...ALREADY SEEING
SCATTERED SHOWERS POPPING AROUND THE BAY CITY AND WHARTON.

WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT...NEARLY STATIONARY...IS DRAPED ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES COULD ALSO BE ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER FOR ACTIVITY
AS PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE UPWARDS OF 1.75 INCHES BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AGAIN GREAT INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. HI-RES
GUIDANCE SHOWS AN INCREASED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WEST LATE THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT SLIDES A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE RADAR TRENDS TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA
IS EXPECTED TO OPEN INTO A WAVE AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. THE POLAR JET WILL BE MOVING OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING TO THE OZARKS TONIGHT WHILE A
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL MOVE OUT OF CENTRAL MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS.

VERY WEAK BOUNDARY HAS REACHED THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA BUT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH DURING
THE DAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS NEAR THIS BOUNDARY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. CAP WILL BE STRONG AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA BUT ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE SUBTROPICAL JET
COULD LEAD TO STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND
INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS THIS AFTERNOON. FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SURGING SOUTH THROUGH WEST TEXAS
WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO AREA TONIGHT. AIR MASS WILL BE
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS DEPICT
STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN MEXICO
AND MOVING SOUTHEAST WITH THE FRONT. WILL SHOW HIGHEST POPS TO
THE NORTHWEST FOR THIS EVENING WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING TOWARD
THE COAST WITH THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT NORTHWARD ABOVE THE FRONT MONDAY MORNING FOR POSSIBLE
ELEVATED CONVECTION BUT LOWERED POPS BACK TO 50 PERCENT. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE MONDAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 70S.

TIDES...TIDE LEVELS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT REMAIN ABOUT A
FOOT ABOVE EXPECTED. THIS WILL KEEP THE TIDE LEVELS FROM REACHING
THE 2 FEET MEAN SEA LEVEL CRITERIA AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE
THIS AFTERNOON. CANCELLED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. SWELLS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 8 SECONDS TODAY...SO WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY. SWELLS DIMINISH AND
OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...SO EXPECT RIP CURRENT RISK
WILL FALL TO MODERATE.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...COLD FRONT WILL BE
EXITING THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  SCT SHOWERS AND PSBLY A STORM
OR TWO WILL LINGER NEAR THE COAST INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE DRIER
AIR WINS OUT.  SCA CONDS LIKELY FOR A PERIOD BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS MODEST CAA PERSISTS.  UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPS
A BIT AS AIRMASS LOOKS QUITE COOL AND MODELS LIKELY DON`T HV A GOOD
HANDLE.

ENJOY THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BECAUSE IT
WILL NOT HANG AROUND LONG.  DEEP RIDGING ENSUES LATE IN THE WEEK
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE.  COULD
SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION FRI OR SAT...ESPLY CLOSE TO THE RIO
GRANDE...BUT NOT ENOUGH CVRG EXPECTED TO CARRY MENTION AT THIS TIME.


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    89  73  79  65  78  /  20  40  50  30  10
VICTORIA          86  70  77  61  77  /  40  50  50  30  10
LAREDO            94  71  76  64  79  /  10  50  50  20  10
ALICE             90  72  77  62  79  /  20  40  50  30  10
ROCKPORT          86  74  78  66  77  /  20  50  50  30  10
COTULLA           88  68  74  62  80  /  20  50  40  10  10
KINGSVILLE        90  73  79  64  79  /  20  30  50  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       87  75  79  67  78  /  10  40  50  30  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GH/77...SHORT TERM


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