Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 192121
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
321 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

For the middle of February, it seems an awful lot like early April
across West Central Texas today. A few light showers moved across
the area late this morning and into the early afternoon hours.
Clouds broke up enough to allow better insolation and better
instability, and showers have managed to grow into thunderstorms
this afternoon. Best coverage has been across the east and northeast
counties in the Heartland and Big Country.

Better lift approaches this evening as the main upper level trough
approaches. Air mass further west into the Concho Valley and Edwards
Plateau has been capped so far today, but this will weaken this
evening as the lift arrives. Convection should begin to blossom
across the Concho Valley and Edwards Plateau this evening and then
shift east. Best rain chances will be across the Heartland and Hill
Country counties, with smaller chances further west. Rain in the
east may continue into the morning hours on Monday across the
extreme Northwest Hill Country, but should quickly shift east and
out of the area. Warm again tomorrow with highs in the low to mid
70s.

07

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)

.Dry and Unseasonably Warm...

The long term forecast remains dry, with temperatures remaining
well above seasonal normals through Thursday. The upper trough
that will pass over the forecast area tomorrow will form a closed
low which will move southeastward over the Gulf of Mexico by
Tuesday. Drier air will dominate West Central Texas through the
coming week with afternoon highs well above seasonal norms through
Thursday. Highs on Tuesday will be in the 70s and highs Wednesday
and Thursday will be in the 80s. The next cold front will move
through the area on Friday and will lower afternoon highs on
Friday and Saturday close to seasonal norms in the mid 60s.
Morning lows on Saturday will be around seasonal norms in the
upper 30s, but morning lows will warm back into the 40s on Sunday
and Monday. Sunday and Monday afternoons highs will warm back
into the 70s.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  53  72  46  74 /  40  10   0   0
San Angelo  51  76  44  77 /  40  10   0   0
Junction  52  76  44  77 /  60  20   5   0
Brownwood  54  74  45  76 /  80  10   5   0
Sweetwater  51  72  47  75 /  30   5   0   0
Ozona       49  72  41  76 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



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