Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 181134
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
628 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
/|12Z TAFS/
MVFR/IFR ceilings expected across most TAF locations through at
least 15-17Z. Some light fog expected mainly over ABI and BBD
airports, as well.  Expect conditions to improve mid to late morning
as drier air mixes into the area. Will see low clouds develop again
toward sunrise Saturday. winds should remain light through the TAF
period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Latest analysis shows a shortwave trough heading eastward across
Oklahoma and east Texas, with an upper low entering the southern
California coast. Weak isentropic lift over shallow cooler air at
the surface across west Texas is resulting in patchy fog and
widespread low clouds this morning across the area. Some light
drizzle may also be possible...but not expecting any measurable
precipitation. Clouds should dissipate by late morning as drier air
mixes down. Expecting afternoon highs to be a few degrees warmer
today than yesterday with a bit of afternoon sunshine and warmer 850
mb temperatures associated with weak ridge aloft. Low clouds should
again move in overnight with strong southeast low level flow,
keeping overnight temperatures mild in the 50s.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible this weekend, with the
best chance occurring Saturday night into Easter Sunday. Dry and
warm weather is expected next week.

A short wave trough will move across the Southern Rockies on
Saturday and into the Central and Southern Plains on Easter Sunday.
The main lift from this system will be affecting the area Saturday
night and Sunday and this is when rain chances will be highest
across West Central Texas. On Saturday, mainly looking at a dry
forecast with partly to mostly cloudy skies. POP`s were scaled back
on Saturday as upper level support will be lacking. Going with a dry
forecast for most areas, with a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms across far western counties, mainly during the
afternoon hours. Expect afternoon highs in the middle and upper
70s.

Large scale ascent will increase across the area Saturday night into
Easter Sunday as the short wave enters the Plains. Scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms should develop to our west during the
evening hours, spreading east across the area after midnight.
Thunderstorms may become more organized across the area on Easter
Sunday as a dryline mixes east to our western border by afternoon.
Models show moderate instability developing east of the dryline
during the afternoon hours (CAPES around 2000 J/KG) as temperatures
warm into the lower 80s, with deep layer shear between 30 and 40 KT.
Not expecting widespread severe weather on Sunday, but a few
supercells capable of producing large hail and damaging winds cannot
be ruled out during the afternoon and early evening hours.

A weak cold front approaches from the north Sunday night. Showers
and thunderstorms will be possible along the front, mainly after
midnight across northern sections and will maintain highest POP`s
(30 percent) across the Big Country. The front is expected to stall
across southeast sections on Monday, before moving south across the
area Monday evening. Models are hinting at possible convection along
the front Monday afternoon but with the trough axis east of the
area, will maintain a dry forecast at this time.

Short wave ridging will develop across the Plain through mid week
as an amplified upper level trough moves into the western CONUS
and across the Rockies. Dry and warmer weather is expected through
Thursday but will need to keep and eye on possible dryline
convection developing by mid week. Due to model differences with
the upper level pattern, will maintain a dry forecast through
Thursday. Expect above normal temperatures through the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  55  77  59  78 /  10   5  10  30  30
San Angelo  76  56  79  59  80 /  10   5  20  40  30
Junction  77  56  78  59  79 /  10   5  10  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

08





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