Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 222318
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
618 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for VFR conditions to continue tonight and tomorrow. Another
weak cold front will move, from north to south, into West Central
Texas Monday afternoon; thus, expect surface winds from the west
or northwest, at the Abilene and San Angelo terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 346 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

Last night`s frontal passage has resulted in a very pleasant
afternoon across west central Texas...with abundant sunshine and
temperatures near seasonal normals in the mid to upper 70s. The
combination of clear skies and light winds will allow for
temperatures to drop into the mid to upper 40s across much of the
area tonight. A few readings in the lower 40s will be possible
across the northwestern Hill Country and Northern Edwards Plateau
where surface high pressure will be centered. Expect abundant
sunshine and warmer temperatures on Monday...with highs generally in
the lower 80s. Another cold front will move across the Big Country
by the late afternoon reinforcing the very dry airmass in place.

42

LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Thursday)

A mostly sunny weather pattern with fluctuating highs and lows should
continue Tuesday through Friday. Friday through Sunday morning,
models diverge on rain or no rain and agree it will likely turn
colder.

A reinforcing ridge of high pressure at the surface will continue to
build into West Central Texas Monday night.  This should result in
temperatures lowering to near 50 areawide. Highs on Tuesday should
climb in to the lower to mid 70s beneath the cool surface high and
sunny sky. With clear skies and good radiational cooling, look
for morning lows on Wednesday to dip into the 40s. Some readings
could be a few degrees colder in the river valley and low lying
areas.

Afternoon highs should warm into the mid and upper 70s on
Wednesday and into the mid 80s by Thursday. Temperatures will
increase by Thursday as the surface high moves east and a surface
trough extending across the South Plains results in a dry and warm
southwest surface wind.

(Thursday Night through Sunday Morning)

Both models agree that a strong cold front should arrive Thursday
night, bringing colder afternoon highs in the upper 50s and lower
60s for Friday and Saturday. Nighttime lows this Friday and
Saturday night could drop into the upper 30s to near 40.

However, the ECMWF and the GFS still disagree on the exact placement
of the upper trough by Friday. The ECMWF is a little slower and
deeper, while the GFS is faster and less deep with the development
of the upper trough across the middle of the country by this
Friday.

Very difficult to know this far out as models have to resolve 160
knots plus of upper level jet stream energy flowing around the
East Pacific upper ridge into the U.S.  The National Weather
Prediction Center forecasters have split the difference between
the two models on today`s runs. If the ECMWF is correct, then we
could get a little light rain Friday night. If the GFS is right,
then we stay dry. For now, will continue a 20 percent chance of
cold light rain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  46  80  50  71 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  45  83  50  73 /   0   0   0   0
Junction  41  82  49  74 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood  42  81  49  72 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  49  79  50  70 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       42  81  50  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



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