Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 301124
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
624 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. West to southwest winds
of 10 to 20 knots today will become southerly at around 10 knots
this evening. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 408 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Quiet and warmer today across west central Texas. The pattern will
continue to be somewhat progressive aloft. Northwest flow behind
the Tuesday night`s upper trough will be replaced by low amplitude
ridging by tonight. At the surface, pressure falls across our area
and to our northwest will result in breezy west/southwest winds.
with downslope effects, dry air, and mainly sunny skies, we can
expect to see temperatures warm up from yesterday`s cooler
readings with highs mainly in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Winds
will turn southerly and remain breezy overnight, resulting in some
moisture increase and warmer overnight lows in the 50s.

LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)

Unseasonably hot temperatures are forecast on Friday as south to
southwest winds increase to 10 to 20 mph ahead the next
approaching upper level system. High temperatures on Friday will
generally be in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees. Overnight lows
will mainly be in the mid to upper 50s.

The next upper level low is forecast to move into the Desert
Southwest Friday, then across North Texas on Sunday. The ECMWF
continues to be slightly slower and farther south with the track of
this aforementioned low. The ECMWF track would be more favorable
for shower and thunderstorm activity across the forecast area,
especially Saturday night into Sunday. For now, PoPs were
generally kept in the chance category, although likely PoPs were
carried in our eastern counties, where showers and thunderstorms
look most likely. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will also
be possible, along with the possibility of locally heavy rainfall.
Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A cold
front will move through the forecast area Sunday, resulting in
northwest winds of 10 to 15 mph. Slightly cooler temperatures are
also anticipated, with highs in the low to mid 70s.

Warmer temperatures are forecast for the start of the work, with
highs both Monday and Tuesday in the upper 70s to mid 80s. The next
upper level trough is then forecast to swing across the Plains
Wednesday, sending a cold front through the region. Cooler
temperatures are expected behind the front on Wednesday with highs
in the 70s.

FIRE WEATHER...
Somewhat elevated fire weather conditions will impact the area
today. Near critical conditions are expected for Friday, as winds
pick up to 10 to 20 mph, temperatures warm to around 90 degrees,
and relative humidity values drop into the 10 to 20 percent range.
Elevated fire weather conditions will affect the area again on
Saturday. Rain chances move into the area Saturday night into
Sunday, easing fire weather issues temporarily. However, drier
and warmer conditions will move back into the area by the middle
of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  77  53  88  58 /   0   0   0   5
San Angelo  81  54  90  58 /   0   0   0  10
Junction  79  52  88  59 /   0   0   0  10
Brownwood  76  50  88  58 /   0   0   0   5
Sweetwater  78  54  87  57 /   0   0   0  10
Ozona       79  52  87  56 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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