Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KSJT 221130
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
630 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Patchy light fog will be possible through sunrise across the
southern terminals with visibilities around 5SM, otherwise VFR
conditions will continue at all TAF sites through tonight.
Winds will be light, generally 10 mph or less the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Hot and dry weather will continue for West Central Texas as the
subtropical ridge strengthens a bit more across the southern Rockies
today. Abundant high level clouds from earlier convection across the
Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles is streaming in from the north early
this morning. These clouds will thin during the day but may offset
warming a degree or two across mainly the northern counties today.
Latest MOS guidance is coming in 1 to 2 degrees cooler across this
area as well. Given the strength of the upper high and expected
thinning of the cirrus shield, will keep temperatures slightly above
guidance numbers. Surface winds this afternoon will be light and
will have more of an easterly component compared to yesterday, which
may also be enough to spare us a degree for afternoon highs. Expect
temperatures for the most part to be very similar to yesterday, with
highs this afternoon topping out in the upper 90s to around 100
degrees. Low temperatures tonight will be in the 70s.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)

Above normal temperatures can be expected through this weekend, with
a possible pattern change early next week. An upper level high will
remain centered across New Mexico/Colorado through this weekend,
resulting in highs generally in the 98 to 103 range, with overnight
lows in the mid to upper 70s. The one caveat, is a TUTT that is
forecast to move into South Texas on Thursday, then into northern
Mexico Friday. On this track, this feature would increase moisture
across at least the southern half of the area, and decrease heights.
This would result in slightly cooler temperatures, and temperatures
were tended down a couple degrees, mainly across the southern half
of the area. An isolated shower or thunderstorms cannot be ruled
out, but for now PoPs were left below 15 percent.

Models have come into better agreement in the development of a
potent upper level trough across much of the Great Lakes/Midwest
region, early next week. This helps to displace the upper level
ridge to the west, centering across Arizona. In addition, a weak
cold front is forecast to move into the region on Tuesday. A lot of
uncertainty remains on the evolution of this upper level trough, but
confidence is increasing that at least slightly cooler temperatures
and increased rain chances will be possible next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  98  74  99  73  99 /   0   0   5   5   5
San Angelo  99  74 101  73 100 /   0   0   5   5  10
Junction  98  73  99  71  97 /   0   0   5   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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