Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 101144
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
544 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016


.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Light southwest winds will increase to 10-14 KTS midday...with
wind gusts of 18-22 KTS at KABI and KSJT during the afternoon.
South to southwest winds of 10 to 14 KTs are expected to continue
overnight at KABI.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Surface low pressure will be developing in Kansas and Oklahoma
today, ahead of a cold front that will be moving into West Central
Texas Thursday. The strongest pressure gradient and winds today
will be in the Big Country. Downslope compressional southwest
winds will allow temperatures to rise to highs in the mid and
upper 70s.

The main weather impact will be elevated fire danger this
afternoon, particularly in the Big Country, as above normal
temperatures combine with dry fuels and gusty southwest winds.

It will be warmer in the 40s tonight in the Big Country, as a
surface trough ahead of cold front brings stronger winds and
mixing. Southern sections, along the I-10 corridor, will see
lighter winds and cooler temperatures in the mid 30s.

04

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)

No significant changes were needed from the previous forecast.
Northwest flow will remain in place throughout most of the next
week with a large persistent trough over the eastern CONUS, and
persistent upper level ridging across the western U. S. Periodic
disturbances will move through the trough, sending cold fronts
into Texas. No precipitation is expected in our area with any of
these fronts.

The first of these will be a weak front Thursday that will stall
near the southern border of our CWA. Although the wind shift
should make it to the I-10 corridor, the influence of the front
will mostly be felt across the Big Country where highs will be in
the mid to upper 60s as opposed to the mid to upper 70s for the
rest of the area. Another front, with a little stronger surface
high behind it will move in Saturday, cooling temperatures across
the entire CWA.

Over the weekend, an upper level trough will break the western
ridge down. This will cause warmer temperatures, and south winds
to increase in our area on Sunday as low pressure deepens across
the central and northern plains. As this upper level trough moves
east, the strongest of our cold fronts will move into the area
Monday, resulting in highs mainly in the 60s Monday.

20

FIRE WEATHER...
..Elevated Fire Weather Conditions this afternoon...

With a combination of very dry air and vegetation, along with
above normal temperatures and gusty southwest winds, fire weather
conditions will be elevated this afternoon. The strongest 20 foot
southwest winds, around 15 mph, will along and north of I-20.

A cold front will move into the Big Country along the I-20
corridor mid to late morning Thursday, then south along a San
Angelo to Brownwood line in the afternoon. The front will
dissipate Thursday night, with south winds returning Friday.

Low level moisture is expected to increase during the weekend.
The increased humidity will keep fire weather conditions from
becoming critical Sunday as breezy south winds develop.

04

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  77  45  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  79  40  79  35 /   0   0   0   0
Junction  77  36  79  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/04


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