Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 192105
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
305 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
PERSISTENT FOG ACROSS THE NORTH WITH CURRENT SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWING
THE  STRATUS IS EXPANDING SOUTH INTO THE JAMES NORTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE A SOLID STRATUS AND FOG LOW LEVEL
SOUNDING FROM WILLISTON THROUGH MINOT WHILE THE GFS MIXES IT OUT
THIS EVENING. WILL LEAN TO THE NAM AND KEEP FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
THOUGH THE NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL TONIGHT. FURTHER ISSUES INVOLVE
VSBYS AS LOW AS ONE QUARTER MILE NEAR TIOGA TO STANLEY. DO NOT
SEE MUCH IMPROVEMENT THERE AND SHOULD SEE LOWER VSBYS IN MINOT
LATER TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET. WILL GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM
TIOGA TO STANLEY THROUGH 9 PM THEN EXPAND IT EAST THROUGH MINOT
AND TO BOTTINEAU AND MCHENRY COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THE FOG WILL ALSO INSULATE A BIT SO HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES FOR
OVERNIGHT NIGHT LOWS.

ON SATURDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING LIGHT AND SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION. EXPECT A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SOME SLEET AND
SNOW BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS ON THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PAST RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE LATEST 12 UTC RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BACKED THE SYSTEM
UP A BIT...DEVELOPING A CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA
MONDAY WHICH SLOWLY PROPAGATES EAST INTO TUESDAY. THESE SOLUTIONS
BOTH SHOW MORE QPF OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.

VERTICAL PROFILES ALSO LOOK TO BE BETTER MIXED AFTER THE WEAK
SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BEFORE THE FRONT
PASSES A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...RAIN...AND SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR. STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT THE SOUTHWEST MAY
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW...HOWEVER FOR THE REST OF
THE STATE ALL SNOW IS ANTICIPATED. MONDAY AND TUESDAY PRECIPITATION
IS FORECAST AS ALL SNOW AS WELL FOR ALL OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH THAT SAID IF MODEL SOLUTIONS PROGRESS THE TROUGH ALONG
QUICKER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...PROFILES ALOFT COULD BE TO DRY FOR
ICE CRYSTALS AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA COULD ONCE AGAIN
SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE.

EARLY ESTIMATES ON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY RANGE
FROM AROUND 2 INCHES WEST TO AN INCH ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

WILL LET PERSISTENCE DICTATE THE FORECAST WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF FOG REMAIN TODAY. KEPT LOW IFR FROM KMOT-KJMS WHERE
SHALLOW COOL AIR WILL REMAIN. KISN-KBIS WILL REMAIN ON THE EDGE
WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXTENT OF CLOUDS AND FOG THAT
RETURN AFTER DARK. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF BROAD SCALE WINDS SEE
SHALLOW COOL BOUNDARY LAYER CONTRIBUTING TO STRATUS AND FOG. KDIK
PROBABLY THE ONLY ONE IN THE CLEAR WITH VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY
FOR NDZ003-004-011-012.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR NDZ002-010.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...WAA








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