Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 300938
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
338 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS CLOUDS ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY
AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

EARLY THIS MORNING AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND PUSH NORTH. THE HRRR IS
DOING A REASONABLE JOB DEPICTING THE CURRENT AREA OF STRATUS IN
THE 925MB MOISTURE FIELD. THE HRRR HAS THE AREA OF STRATUS
LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND 8 AM.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE PROGRESSION OF
THE WARM AND COLD FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
HAVE THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY ABOUT 11 AM. WINDS THEN SHIFT
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THE COLD FRONT DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE FAVORED FOR
A NICE QUICK WARM UP BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WEST DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND A WARM FRONT
NEARBY THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE LOW
50S. THE NORTH SHOULD REMAIN COOLER AS THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
EARLIER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKE HOLD.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS ARE COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK WITH A NUMBER OF LIGHT SNOW EVENTS. THEN POSSIBLY A
RETURN TO MORE MILD CONDITIONS AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN PERIOD
AND USED A MODEL BLEND WITH WPC QPF FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

WITH THE SATURDAY SYSTEM...00 UTC FRIDAY MODELS HAVE FLIPPED A BIT
FROM 24 HOURS AGO. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW FARTHER NORTH AND EAST
WHILE THE GEM HAS SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH THE HIGHEST QPF.
HOWEVER A BLEND STILL YIELDS A REASONABLE ESTIMATE...CLOSE TO WPC
FORECAST AND SIMILAR TO OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST. SYNOPTIC SCALE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA SATURDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A 120KT UPPER LEVEL JET DROPPING
INTO MONTANA FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH A LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THIS SAME AREA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE
EXPANDED CATEGORICAL POPS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE
THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO EXPAND CHANCE POPS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH.
FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY 1 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT TAPERING QUICKLY TO LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION FROM AROUND SHERWOOD TO RUGBY AND CARRINGTON.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY. THERE ARE DETERMINISTIC MODEL DIFFERENCES...BUT IN GENERAL
IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WIDESPREAD AREA OF SNOW...BUT WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS OF AN INCH AND A HALF OR LESS. THIS SYSTEM IS QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MORE VIGOROUS SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE ROCKIES WHICH INDUCES SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MONDAY REGION TUESDAY. AGAIN...WIDESPREAD
SNOWS SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY SUB ADVISORY
CATEGORY SNOW. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER WOULD
RECEIVE THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT THIS FAR OUT THINGS CAN
CERTAINLY CHANGE. THIS SYSTEM HAS ALREADY TRENDED FARTHER NORTH AS
PREVIOUS RUNS SUPPRESSED PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM.

BEYOND THE TUESDAY SYSTEM...THE GFS/GEM SUPPRESS ADDITIONAL SNOWS
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF HOWEVER KEEPS A QUASI ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE REGION LONG ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER IMPULSE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...GIVING US
ONE LAST SHOT OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWS BEFORE COLD HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT WE MIGHT BREAK THE COLD AND ACTIVE PATTERN AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND BEGINS TO PUSH
INTO THE PLAINS.

WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR THINGS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
GENERALLY NEAR TO BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWS WITH EACH SYSTEM BUT
SNOW AMOUNTS COULD BEGIN TO ADD UP. WILL ISSUE A SPS TO HIGHLIGHT
THE FIRST SYSTEM AND INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL SNOWS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KISN/KMOT/KDIK/KBIS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. KJMS WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AJ





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