Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KBIS 300303
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1003 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

MAIN UPDATE ISSUES WERE TO ADDRESS THE INCREASED SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN FIRES. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK ON
TRACK FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT UNTIL THEN EXPECT
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A MILE OR TWO ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. SURFACE FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY TONIGHT SO WE ARE
UNSURE OF HOW FAR SOUTH THE SMOKE WILL TRAVEL. DID ADD SOME HAZE
TO THE SOUTH OF THE SMOKE AND DID ISSUE AN SPS TO HEIGHTEN
AWARENESS OF THE SMOKE. REPORTS FROM SOUTHERN CANANDA AND GLASGOW
SAID THAT YOU COULD SMELL THE SMOKE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER FAR SOUTHERN DUNN AND EASTERN STARK
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST. STILL VERY UNSTABLE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST WITH 2-3 THOUSAND JOULES OF CAPE...BUT NOTHING GET
THINGS STARTED. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THIS PORTION OF THE
SOUTHWEST...AND INTO GRANT COUNTY THROUGH 9 PM. ALSO KEPT HAZE IN
THE EAST THROUGH SUNSET. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST
BETWEEN BOWMAN AND HETTINGER. SOME CONVECTION TRYING TO GET GOING
HERE BUT HAVING A HARD TIME. DID SEE ONE CELL PRODUCE A LITTLE
LIGHTNING...AND ANOTHER MAY YET FORM. ALSO BUMPED UP POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH THROUGH DICKINSON AND DUNN COUNTY WHERE CU IS
A LITTLE MORE CONGESTED. ADDED SOME HAZE IN THE FAR EAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH OVER
HUDSON BAY WAS PRODUCING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA.
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES WAS EVIDENT ON SAT PICS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL SMOKE APPEARED
TO BE OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON...KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AS OF EARLY
AFTERNOON. FARTHER WEST...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...EVEN A FEW LOWER 90S REPORTED.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROUND THE APEX IN SOUTHWESTERN CANADA AND
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. THE FIRST ROUND OF UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES IS FORECAST TO REACH NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...SPREADING/EXPANDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE ELEVATED WITH THIS
WAVE OF IMPULSES...CAPE IS WEAK.

TUESDAY MORNING...THE LARGE AREA ENCOMPASSED BY THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BULK SHEAR STILL ELEVATED BUT CAPE VALUES NOT
OF A CONCERN FOR ANY KIND OF SEVERE STORMS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE BACK EDGE OF THE FIRST ROUND OF
IMPULSES/SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WITH
A BIT OF CLEARING IN THE WEST AHEAD OF THE SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN. DURING THE AFTERNOON A SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. CAPE
VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE BULK
SHEAR STILL ELEVATED AT 35-50 KNOTS. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH
DAKOTA...SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG...POSSIBLY SEVERE.
WILL NOT YET MENTION SEVERE WORDING...AS STORM PREDICTION CENTER
KEEPS A MARGINAL CATEGORY FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE AFTERNOON.

COOLER TUESDAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE 70S CENTRAL TO 80S WEST WITH THE
TEMPORARY AFTERNOON CLEARING BEFORE THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD BEGIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE LONG TERM COULD START OUT RATHER STORMY. A SURFACE TROUGH AND
UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING AND WARM MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...CAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG ARE LIKELY ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND VERY STRONG SHEAR (50-60 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR) COULD
SPARK SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND.

AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES OVERNIGHT A TRANSITION TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUDS
DISSIPATE AND ALLOW AFTERNOON HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN NEARBY THURSDAY BEFORE THE
TROUGH EXITS THE REGION FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

AT THIS TIME...INDEPENDENCE DAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY...HOWEVER THE
LONG TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOMETIME SATURDAY EVENING. A MINOR CHANGE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON 4TH OF JULY PLANS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

SMOKE FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. VSBYS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 6SM FOR
ALL TAF SITES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF ADDITIONAL SMOKE OVER
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THAT WILL DROP INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ALSO A LOT OF CLOUD COVER
SO HARD TO TELL HOW EXTENSIVE THE SMOKE WILL BE. THERE ARE SOME
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY OVER SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN AND WILL NEED
TO MONITOR...

UPDATE...SMOKE HAS MADE IT INTO WILLISTON...DOWN TO 2 MILES. HAVE
AMMENDED AND WILL NEED TO VISIT OTHER TAFS.

SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. COVERED THIS WITH MAINLY VCSH THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING...THEN -SHRA INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY LOOKS
LIMITED SO NO MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. THE EXCEPTION BEING
KISN WHICH MIGHT MISS OUT ON THE MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDS DURING THE
DAY...THUS ALLOWING MORE HEATING AND A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ADDED A VCTS FOR KDIK 21-24 UTC
TUESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.