Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 241200
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
700 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

FORECAST HAS ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY WINDS...SOME SPRINKLES AND COOL
NORTH.

GOES WATER VAPOR SHOWING THE LARGER SCALE CYCLONE OVER WRN ONTARIO
WITH NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE VORTEX AT 730Z.
CLOUDY...COOL /40S/ AND SHOWERY MARKS THIS REGION INTO NRN MN.
REGIONAL RADARS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS NRN WI/MN AT
07Z...MOVING SOUTHEAST. KINL RAOB WAS QUITE SATURATED WITH AROUND
1 INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. WITH SHORTWAVE LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES IN THE 8C/KM RANGE...HAVE ADDED SOME SPRINKLES INTO
THE HIGHWAY 29 CORRIDOR AND NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SHOWERS. THIS
LEAD WAVE ALSO BRINGS WITH IT A POCKET OF COLD ADVECTION WHICH
LINGERS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. BELIEVE WITH THE CLOUDS AND COLD
ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES WONT MOVE MUCH TODAY NORTH OF I-94 /BUT
IT HAS ALSO BEEN A WARMER OVERNIGHT THERE/. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
SHOWERS LATER MORNING...MAY HAVE ADD SOME SPRINKLES IN LATER THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDENCE KICKS IN. CLOUDS
WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD A BIT MORE LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
HAVE KEPT THEM MAINLY IN WI.

MAYBE THE MOST NOTICEABLE WEATHER...ANOTHER BREEZY-WINDY DAY
TODAY WITH GUSTS SIMILAR TO SUNDAY IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE. 88D VWP
AT 07Z SHOWING 40-50 KT 1.5-3KFT WINDS FROM MPX-ARX...WHICH IS
TROUBLING IF MIXING WAS PRESENT. SATELLITE CLOUD WINDS AND
RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE SEEMS TO SUGGEST THESE WINDS MAY BE A BIT LOWER
THAN VWP IS SUGGESTING /BIRD MIGRATION ENHANCED?/. AS THE TROUGH
SHIFTS THROUGH NRN WI THIS MORNING THE 35-45 KT WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH SOME AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES INTO THE
AFTERNOON...SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR/RAP WIND PROFILES. SO NOT
EXPECTING WIND ADVISORY GUSTS TO BE MET.

&&

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

THURSDAY MORNING COULD BE A RIVER VALLEY FOG MORNING...BUT HAVE
NOT ADDRESSED THIS IN THE FORECAST AS OF YET. BUT...IT APPEARS
DEEPER LIGHT WINDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE. WILL
MONITOR THIS OVER THE NEXT DAYS.

THIS PERIOD OVERALL IS CATEGORIZED BEST BY RIDGE BUILDING AND
TEMPERATURES MODIFYING TOWARD A WEEKEND NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE.
THERE IS STILL SOME LOOSE CONSENSUS ON A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING
EAST OUT OF THE MONSOON-RICH INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ON FRIDAY...AND
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. PROBABILITIES WOULD FOCUS MORE ON THE
SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA IT SEEMS...BUT THE NORTH HAS SOME RAIN
CHANCE WITH A POSSIBLE NORTHERN FRONT MAKING WAY INTO WISCONSIN.
THE WAVE SEEMS TO HAVE SOME ORIGINS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND BECOMES
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED IN THE MONSOON FLOW BEFORE EJECTING INTO THE
PLAINS. THIS WOULD BE GOOD NEWS FOR THE DROUGHT AREAS OF NERN IA
AND SWRN WI...ESPECIALLY IF IT CARRIES SOME INTENSITY...ENOUGH TO
ELICIT SOME SOUTHERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ON
ITS DOWNSTREAM SIDE. HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN DRYING OUT SATURDAY WITH A NICE WEEKEND OF 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

WHILE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...AVIATION FORECASTS A
BIT CLOUDED ON EXTENT OF CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVES
WRAPPING AROUND UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO. BROKEN LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 WILL LIKELY STAY IN THIS VICINITY
UNTIL WAVES START DRIVING THESE BACK SOUTHWESTWARD ON MONDAY. BASED
ON HEIGHT OF CURRENT CLOUD DECK AND PROJECTED RH FIELDS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...EDGE OF CLOUDS COULD MAKE IT BACK CLOSE TO INTERSTATE 35
SO INTRODUCED SOME CEILINGS AT KRST. WISCONSIN SIDE WILL BECOME
OVERCAST MOST LIKELY.

WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK AS WELL IN GENERAL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...SHEA


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