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000
FXUS65 KABQ 252210
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
310 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE DRIFTING PACIFIC STORM OFF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO WILL SWING SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO
TO START THE WORK WEEK...WITH SKIES CLEARING THROUGH THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD. THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM ARRIVING IN NORTHWEST MEXICO
THURSDAY WILL PUSH WIDE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS ALL OF
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...AS A SOLID COLD FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES
INVADES EASTERN NEW MEXICO. EARLY WEEKEND STORMS ACROSS NEW MEXICO
WILL TAPER OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...BROAD NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE ACROSS NEW MEXICO SEPARATING
MUSCULAR TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TO EAST TEXAS...AND
CLOSED LOW ON THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE SURFACE PICTURE...WITH DOME CENTER OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND COMPANION CENTER OVER FAR EASTERN NEW
MEXICO ALONG INTERSTATE 40. TEMPERATURES TODAY RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF LATE JANUARY NORMALS...WITH A FEW DEGREES
COOLER EAST AND SOUTH...AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER WEST AND NORTH.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK
AND WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. SOME
SMALL DIFFERENCES IN FEATURE PLACEMENT EMERGING HEADING INTO TUESDAY.
GOOD START TODAY KEEPS NEW MEXICO BETWEEN TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC
SYSTEM OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH RIDGE OVER THE STATE
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MEXICO ACROSS NEW MEXICO TO THE INLAND
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS OF TONIGHT. RIDGE CORE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT
EASTWARD BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING UPSTREAM FLOW OVER
NEW MEXICO TO BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND THEN RUN CLOSER TO ZONAL
BY MIDWEEK...AS EAST PACIFIC CLOSED LOW REMAINS STATIONARY.
TROUGH WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN ARIZONA BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...BUT WILL RUN STATIONARY
ONCE AGAIN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND LEAVING NEW MEXICO UNDER THE
NORTHBOUND MOISTURE PULL ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE STORM CORE. THIS
STORM WILL STAY ABSOLUTELY PARKED THROUGH MONDAY OF THE NEXT
WEEK...WITH SOME EUROPEAN ECMWF HINT OF OPENING THE TROUGH INTO A
WAVE AND STARTING SOME EASTWARD DRIFT AS THE WEEK GETS STARTED.
DOMESTIC GFS KEEPS EVERYTHING WEST OF NEW MEXICO...PARKED...OVER
SONORA AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND OFFERS LITTLE BASIS FOR ANY CHANGE
IN THE BROADER WEATHER PATTERN.

OVERNIGHT...LITTLE FLOW ALOFT UNDER THE HEART OF THE RIDGE...WITH
SURFACE HIGH DOME EXTENDING FROM WESTERN COLORADO TO SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES RUNNING ON THE WARM SIDE...3 TO 8
DEGREE WARM DEPARTURES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE JANUARY.

FOR MONDAY...RIDGE ALOFT REMAINING IN PLACE FROM WEST TEXAS ACROSS
ALL OF NEW MEXICO TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF UTAH...AS SURFACE DOME
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NEW MEXICO UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ALOFT.
MORE WARMING OF DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...WITH 8 TO 15 DEGREE WARM
DEPARTURES ON HAND FOR ALL BUT THE COOLER SOUTH...WHERE 3 TO 8
DEGREE WARM DEPARTURES WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE MOVING OUT OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO WILL CROSS THE BOOT
HEEL AND AND MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO BY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT IN THE WEST GRADUALLY
INCREASING TO SCATTERED COVERAGE BETWEEN THE ARIZONA LINE AND THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN...WITH VERY MODEST
SNOWFALL ON TAP FOR THE CHUSKAS AND THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AREAS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY...QUICK BLIP SYSTEM WILL RISE NORTHWARD...MOVING STORM
COVERAGE OUT OF ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. ANOTHER
DAY FOR VERY MODEST RAINFALL COVERAGE OVER THE WEST...WITH SOME
EVENING HIGH COUNTRY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OVER THE JEMEZ
MOUNTAINS...THE SANGRE DE CRISTO HIGH PEAKS...AND THE SAN JUAN AND
TUSAS MOUNTAINS ACROSS EASTERN RIO ARRIBA COUNTY. SURFACE TROUGH
TAKING SHAPE FROM THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE SOUTHWARD TO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL SUPPORT SOME RETURN TO BREEZINESS FOR WEST TO
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON WINDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NEW
MEXICO. BREEZES WILL REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. CONTINUING
WARMTH FOR TUESDAY...WITH 10 TO 20 DEGREE WARM DEPARTURES OVER THE
EAST..AND 6 TO 12 DEGREE WARM DEPARTURES OVER THE WEST.

FOR WEDNESDAY...FLOW ALOFT VEERING TO WESTERLY AS EASTERLY SURFACE
LOW SHIFT EASTWARD TO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY. CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES...WITH THE EAST 8 TO 12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL..AND 5 TO 10 DEGREE WARM DEPARTURES ON HAND
FOR THE WEST. WITH WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...A FEW QUICK HIT
DISTURBANCES MAY CROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
SPAWN SOME ISOLATED SNOW COVERAGE OVER SPOTS IN THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS...BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WIND
DIRECTIONS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
SET UP ACROSS THE SUMMITS AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...AND OVER THE ADJACENT EASTERN
SLOPES AND PLAINS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PACIFIC STORM WILL DRAW
CLOSER TO NORTHWEST MEXICO ON THURSDAY...BECOME CLOUDY AND RAINY
IN WIDE CIRCULATION OF CORE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA
ON FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLAMS WESTWARD
ACROSS NEW MEXICO...AND THEN REMAIN PRETTY MUCH IN PLACE OVER
NORTHWEST MEXICO AS SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIPS PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE SOUTH AND WEST DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. BIG COOLING
TREND IN PLAY...AS TEMPERATURES DROP BACK TO NORMAL AND BELOW ON
THURSDAY...AND THEN STEADY REDUCTION THROUGH SATURDAY TO 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE HEART OF THE WEEKEND. BREEZY
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND SNOW WILL SET UP LATE WEEK...EARLY WEEKEND...AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW AS THE STORM MOVES THROUGH...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 40.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

LIGHT BREEZES AND POOR VENTILATION WILL REMAIN THE CASE ACROSS ALL
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL NM INTO MON NIGHT AS WINDS ALOFT REMAIN PRETTY
LIGHT AS WELL. SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM INTO MON NIGHT
FURTHER ERODING THE SNOW PACK. THE LATTER WILL CONTINUE TO ADD A
BOOST TO DEW POINTS AND RH...WITH SOMEWHAT GREATER THAN USUAL DIURNAL
SWINGS FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO. TONIGHT`S RH RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD TO
EXCELLENT IN MOST AREAS. LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN A LITTLE
WEST OF THE BAJA CA REGION...BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO ADVECT SOME
MOISTURE AND SOME MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY RAIN...INTO THE
WESTERN ZONES LATER MON NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE BAJA LOW WILL HAVE SHIFTED NORTH
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN AREA WITH MOST PRECIP DISAPPEARING FROM
THE STATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SW TO NE
TUE AND STRENGTHENS SOME WHICH WILL...ALONG WITH AN INCREASED SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT...GENERATE BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG AND TO THE LEE
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. THIS WILL IMPROVE VENTILATION RATES
SOME...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR AND ALSO
A FEW POCKETS OUT WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES IN
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY...MEANING ALL ZONES WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE BY 5 TO 15 DEGREES. WED WILL BE PRETTY SIMILAR WITH SOMEWHAT
GREATER COVERAGE OF FAIR TO GOOD VENTILATION RATES EAST HALF AND
PERHAPS SLIGHT REDUCTION OF SAME OUT WEST.

BETWEEN WED NIGHT AND THU A COLD FRONT WILL BACK INTO EAST NM
AND SPILL WESTWARD BEYOND THE RIO GRANDE TOWARD THE AZ BORDER. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE DRAMATICALLY COLDER...THEY WILL BE DROPPING
BACK BELOW NORMAL SLIGHTLY THU BUT MORE SO FRI ACROSS THE SE THREE
QUARTERS OF FCST AREA. FCST MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
THAN WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL DEVELOP AREA WIDE BETWEEN THU NIGHT AND
FRI WHICH MAY LAST INTO SAT OR SAT NIGHT.

43

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NO AVIATION WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  22  53  34  54 /   0   0  10  20
DULCE...........................  19  55  27  49 /   0   0  10  20
CUBA............................  22  53  29  48 /   0   0  10  20
GALLUP..........................  20  56  32  54 /   0   0  30  20
EL MORRO........................  19  54  31  50 /   0   0  40  20
GRANTS..........................  18  53  31  51 /   0   0  30  20
QUEMADO.........................  23  56  33  53 /   0   5  30  20
GLENWOOD........................  31  61  40  59 /   5  10  40  20
CHAMA...........................  15  51  23  45 /   0   0   5  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  27  50  32  48 /   0   0   5  10
PECOS...........................  27  52  33  49 /   0   0   5  10
CERRO/QUESTA....................  14  48  20  47 /   0   0   0  10
RED RIVER.......................  19  45  25  42 /   0   0   0  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  10  49  22  44 /   0   0   0  10
TAOS............................  14  51  22  48 /   0   0   0  10
MORA............................  24  54  31  52 /   0   0   0   5
ESPANOLA........................  25  53  31  52 /   0   0   5  10
SANTA FE........................  28  51  34  49 /   0   0   5  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  23  52  31  52 /   0   0   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  27  55  34  54 /   0   0  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  28  56  35  55 /   0   0  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  24  56  34  56 /   0   0  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  28  55  34  56 /   0   0  10  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  24  56  34  57 /   0   0  10  10
RIO RANCHO......................  27  56  33  55 /   0   0  10  10
SOCORRO.........................  28  56  36  60 /   0   0  20  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  27  54  34  52 /   0   0  10  10
TIJERAS.........................  26  56  33  54 /   0   0  10  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  18  54  28  53 /   0   0   5  10
CLINES CORNERS..................  26  52  32  51 /   0   0   5   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  25  52  32  52 /   0   0  10  10
CARRIZOZO.......................  28  57  34  58 /   0   0  20  10
RUIDOSO.........................  28  57  34  57 /   0   0  20  10
CAPULIN.........................  26  56  32  55 /   0   0   0   0
RATON...........................  22  60  27  60 /   0   0   0   0
SPRINGER........................  22  58  26  59 /   0   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  25  59  32  57 /   0   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  33  65  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
ROY.............................  27  58  33  61 /   0   0   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  28  61  33  66 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  26  62  33  65 /   0   0   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  27  63  33  69 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  29  62  34  65 /   0   0   5   0
PORTALES........................  29  62  34  66 /   0   0   5   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  28  61  34  67 /   0   0   5   5
ROSWELL.........................  25  60  34  67 /   0   0   5   5
PICACHO.........................  27  60  35  64 /   0   0  10   5
ELK.............................  29  58  36  62 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHY