Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 250114 CCA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
608 PM MDT SAT SEP 24 2016

...Corrected Aviation Discussion...

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

All TAF sites through the forecast area should remain VFR through
the 00Z TAF cycle. The main forecast challenges for aviation will
be the duration and strength of the winds as the surface high
pushes southward through the Texas Panhandle. Winds should begin
to increase at KABQ/KLVS/KSAF in the 10-12Z time frame with winds
increasing at KAEG/KTCC/KROW in the 14-16Z window. Winds at all of
these locations will become quite gusty with gusts in the 25-40
kt range and are may extend a few hours past the 00Z package. The
pressure gradient is not expected to be as strong over the western
portions of the forecast area, so winds at KFMN and KGUP will be
lighter with some gusts at KGUP.

The second forecast challenge will be precipitation and clouds at
KTCC and KROW. Enough ingredients are in place to likely bring some
precipitation into KROW starting at about 15Z, so VCSH and -SHRA has
been added in the TAF. Guidance is hinting at MVFR conditions for
KROW in the morning, and trends in guidance will be monitored for
the 06Z package. For KTCC, precipitation should remain out of the
area with only some clouds moving in around 14Z.

54/Fontenot

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...346 PM MDT SAT SEP 24 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet weather pattern through at least Sunday night with the
possible exception of southeast and far east central New Mexico
where enough low level moisture will wash back in from the east to
allow for a decent chance for some rain or drizzle. During this
period upper level low pressure will pinch off the main trough and
develop over northwest Mexico and retrograde to a position over
Baja California. As this develops a cold front will drop southward
across the area setting up a much cooler scenario into early next
week. The upper low will eventually open up into a trough as it
heads north during mid week with the best chance of more
widespread rainfall between Wednesday night and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
An overall quiet period weatherwise through Sunday night with the
exception of some patchy rain or drizzle se and far e central NM
late tonight through Sun. Low pressure aloft will peel off of the
main trough then retrograde to Baja CA by Sun night. A cold front
will drop southward across the state during this period and the
aforementioned rain chances will evolve with the help of some
weak overrunning of moisture over the cool post frontal air mass.

As the low retrogrades farther w and sw that will contract the
north end of what precip may develop farther south. Decided to cut
back on POPS somewhat for majority of the previously depicted
areas through the Tue night timeframe, leaving the majority of the
fcst area dry in this time period, though Mon and Mon night wx
grids still show barely more than 50 percent of the fcst area
covered with at least low to moderate precip chances. More of this
period than not will be rain chances with not significant thunder
potential.

The low then heads north into mid week and eventually opens into a
trough bringing the best chance for more widespread showers and at
least a few storms to the area between Wed night and Fri. There
should be at least a little daytime temp boost Tue to Wed then not
much change into the end of the week.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
In the wake of yesterday`s Pacific front, the cooler, drier, and
more stable airmass has kept things quiet today with minimal clouds
this afternoon. Currently a low pressure system is migrating
northeastward over the northern Rockies with a secondary upper level
disturbance diving south over the Four Corners region. Temperatures
are running about 5 to 10 degrees below normal in the central to
western zones and close to average in the east today. Moderate
breezes, have been prevailing in several locales and humidity is
falling to 10 to 30 percent with highest readings found in the north
central to northwestern zones. Ventilation is lower today, but most
areas are staying in the fair to good categories.

While today`s weather has been rather tranquil, a more interesting
and dynamic weather pattern is in the works for tonight and Sunday.
Tonight, the aforementioned disturbance aloft will continue diving
toward the SW corner of NM, dragging in a stout cold front toward
the eastern plains. Moisture has been largely depleted over the
forecast area, and this drier airmass preceding the arrival of the
front will therefore produce little in the way of showers or storms
upon its initial invasion to northeastern NM. During the early
morning hours Sunday, strong winds with occasional gusts to 40-50
mph will be possible immediately along and just behind the front in
the far northeastern plains with little to no precipitation expected
there.

Showers are expected to develop in the plains south of I-40 on
Sunday as the surface boundary arrives and runs into increased low
level moisture. The bulk of this would fall just south of the ABQ
fire weather forecast area, and thus primary concerns for Sunday
will center around the strong winds associated with the initial
frontal passage and also downwind of gaps and canyons within the
central mountain chain where the gusts will be locally accelerated.
Some pockets of poor ventilation will be found in the upper Rio
Grande valley of NM, but elsewhere rates will be higher due to the
winds behind the front. By late Sunday the upper level disturbance
will have deepened into a cut-off low over the upper Gulf of
California, a forecast position that has trended farther south and
west over the past couple days. East and northeast winds will
prevail through Sunday night, staying quite gusty in central areas.

The forecast models keep the cut-off upper low farther west over the
upper Baja Peninsula on Monday. Precipitation would favor areas
south of I-40 where boundary layer moisture and upslope forcing
would be coincident. In fact, the easterly winds could be fairly
strong over the southwestern mountains Monday. Otherwise, the cooler
than average temperature readings will persist with departures from
normal being most pronounced in the southern tier of the forecast
area. Minimum humidity will be in the 25 to 40 percent range.

The low would likely jog northward over the mouth of the Colorado
River into Tuesday with much of the precipitation shifting toward SW
New Mexico and dispersing. The low would then weaken into an open
wave Wednesday as it moves farther inland on a northbound track.
Some subtropical moisture will attempt to come our way from the
south by late next week, but confidence is still not all that high
that it will succeed.

52

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions will prevail across northern and central New Mexico
through the daytime today. Some breezy conditions will develop
into the mid afternoon, but wind gusts should stay at or below 25
kt. Conditions will turn more unsettled late tonight and into
early Saturday as a cold front races southward. Strong wind gusts
of 25 to 40 kt will accompany the front, hitting the plains first,
and spilling west of the central mountain chain shortly after.
Winds will also accelerate through gaps and canyons within the
central mountain chain, leading to gusts of 30 to 40kt downwind at
KSAF and KABQ. Some MVFR ceilings will likely develop in the
southeastern plains Sunday morning behind the front with
precipitation ensuing into the afternoon.

52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

40



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