Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 301157 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
557 AM MDT Tue May 30 2017

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
A small cluster of -TSRA east of KROW may bring a brief wind shift
from the east and a brief cloud deck near 040 thru 15Z. Otherwise
all terminals VFR with just a few high clouds. Expect another active
day with -SHRA/TSRA developing around the high terrain around 20Z.
Storms will drift southeast into nearby highlands/valleys thru 22Z.
Any storms will be capable of erratic, gusty outflow winds and brief
moderate to heavy rainfall. Favored areas today will stretch along
the Sangre de Cristo Mts and the Cont Dvd. -SHRA/TSRA has potential
to persist all night south of I-40 as an upper wave approaches from
northern Mexico. Low cigs/vsbys possible with RA at KROW aft 06Z.

Guyer

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...345 AM MDT Tue May 30 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread showers are expected to develop over much of the state
again this afternoon as a weather system begins to move into New
Mexico from the west late tonight. The best chances for precipitation
today will be over the Southwest Mountains and along the Central
Mountain Chain. Rainfall coverage will increase on Wednesday as this
system moves eastward into Texas. Temperatures will cool slightly on
Wednesday but are expected to return to more seasonal levels by
Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Again the issue for this package is the coverage and timing of PoPs
over the forecast area. Models are in decent agreement on the
progression and development of the shortwave (currently located off
the Baja Peninsula) as it moves inland and through New Mexico. The
wave should move into SW New Mexico late tonight and eventually form
a short-lived closed low over the state, which will provide the focus
for convection through the Land of Enchantment.

Today, the primary focus for precipitation will be the Southwest
Mountains and the Central Mountain Chain as southerly flow from the
Gulf of Mexico begins to surge northward into southern and eastern
NM. Precipitable water values are expected to surge up to 1.0" today
over the southeast quarter of the state as the flow ahead of the
shortwave gradually strengthens and starts to become southerly. At
this time the best instability looks to be over the SE corner of New
Mexico with generally marginal CAPE values elsewhere. Some
thunderstorms may again be strong today but widespread severe storms
are not expected.

As the shortwave moves into the state and the closed low forms, PWat
values will again surge into the region as the flow becomes southerly
throughout the column. This will create a predominately south-north
storm motion, which could allow for some training of cells. While QPF
values aren`t overall that impressive at this time, this could lead
to some areas over the Eastern Plains (mainly south of I-40) seeing
repeated rounds of rainfall. At this time, there is only a marginal
risk of exceeding flash flood guidance over the eastern third of the
state, so this will have to be monitored as the situation develops.
Again, the best CAPE and instability will be over the southeastern
corner of New Mexico.

The question for both Tuesday and Wednesday will be how much of the
moisture pushes west of the Central Mountains and into the RGV. Right
now, models are hinting that indeed some moisture may surge up the
Rio Grande Valley and into the Albuquerque Metro Area today and
Wednesday. If this does happen, the PoP forecast could be too low in
the Metro area.

The wave will push out of the region on Thursday with temperatures
starting to rebound to seasonal levels by Friday. Models are in a
fair bit of disagreement from the weekend onward, and most of this
part of the forecast will depend on how features develop over the
next 48 hours. Confidence in the location of precipitation and QPF
is on the lower end due to how the models are handling the
development of the shortwave which is currently in an area with few
meteorological observations.

54/Fontenot

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The coverage of showers and storms with wetting rainfall increased
along and east of the Cont Dvd Monday. Humidity recoveries early this
morning are excellent across eastern NM and very good within the Rio
Grande Valley. Moisture will continue increasing today as southerly
flow strengthens ahead of an upper wave approaching from northwest
Mexico. The coverage of showers and storms with wetting rainfall and
gusty, erratic outflow winds will increase again today. A couple
storms within the Sangre de Cristos, the West Central Highlands, and
the South Central Highlands may even produce some locally heavy
precip amounts. Showers and storms will linger later into tonight,
and perhaps persist all night along and south of the Highway 60
corridor.

Wednesday is expected to be the coolest and wettest day of the week
with widespread showers and storms likely. The heaviest precip will
focus along and south of I-40, particularly the east slopes of the
central mt chain where half inch to one inch amounts are likely.
This focus area corresponds to where current soil moisture values
are the lowest. The upper wave will lift northeast across eastern NM
Wednesday night where additional showers will focus through much of
the night.

A transition to drier conditions will begin over western NM Thursday
as a dry intrusion mixes into the area from Arizona. Humidity will
trend much lower west of the Cont Dvd and temps will rebound closer
to normal. Showers and storms will continue along and east of the
central mt chain. Confidence is increasing that drier air will make
even farther eastward progress Friday. Moisture recycling over the
Sangre de Cristos will still help force a few showers and storms.
Haines values trend back to 6 for much of western NM with deeper
mixing and high temps closer to normal.

Saturday into early next week still looks muddled with no strong
agreement on surface and upper level features from various models.
At this time the overall trend looks to favor warming temps closer
to normal with much drier conditions from the Rio Grande Valley
westward. The east may see daily sloshing of low level moisture with
continued chances of showers and storms.

Guyer

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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