851
FXUS65 KABQ 140714
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
114 AM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 100 AM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025

- There is a high risk of flash flooding in the Ruidoso area again
  today, with a low chance of off-scar flooding along and west of
  the central mountain chain.

- Storm coverage trends up mid to late week, increasing the threat
  of flash flooding with daily rounds of numerous showers and
  storms.

- Gusty outflow winds, small hail, and dangerous lightning could
  accompany storms each day around the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 100 AM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Light northeast flow aloft prevails overhead on Monday afternoon,
taking storms that develop over the high terrain off to the
southeast. Recent model trends have backed off the overall
convective coverage, likely a result of the lack of instability.
Storms are most likely over the southwest mountains and Continental
Divide where LIs in the -2 to -5C range will be sufficient for
updrafts to develop. If storms develop along the central mountain
chain, they will get carried into the Rio Grande Valley, but recent
hi-res models are showing little to no storms in this area. A Flash
Flood Watch remains in effect for the Ruidoso area from 11AM until
9PM, with the highest threat during the early portion of that window
when slow-moving storms develop along the crest of the Sacramento
mountains. 50th percentile QPF remains quite low over the burn scars
(<0.25"), but high-end amounts upwards of 1" remain a low
possibility (<10% chance). Storms will be quite diurnally driven
today as most models are showing very few if any storms persisting
after 9PM.

The ridge over the desert southwest will elongate over New Mexico on
Tuesday. The result will be slower storm motions due to weaker flow
aloft. Storms will develop over the high terrain and become outflow
dominant very quickly as the move off into the lower elevations.
Boundary collisions will keep storms around into the evening hours,
particularly along and west of the Rio Grande Valley. Precipitation
chances across the southwest mountains will be the highest they`ve
been in days and it could finally bring widespread wetting rainfall
to the most drought stricken portion of the state.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 100 AM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Slow and erratic storm motion is expected on Wednesday as the
monsoon ridge centers itself over north-central NM. Coverage will be
similar to the previous two days, but localized heavy rainfall will
be of greater concern given the slow storm motions. A more defined
monsoon moisture plume will set-up Thursday, marking the start of a
more active pattern. Numerous showers and storms are likely each
afternoon/evening Thursday through Saturday, with the potential for
storms to persist into the overnight hours each day, especially in
central NM. The good news for flash flooding is that storm motions
will trend slightly faster late week (south to north), but more
efficient rainfall rates and the high potential for rounds of storms
will counteract the faster storm motions.

Wetting rainfall is likely for most locations around the state
during the Wednesday through Sunday time period, with 50th
percentile three-day accumulations exceeding 1" over much of the
high terrain. NBM QPF is hinting at quite a bit of rainfall over the
eastern plains on Saturday, likely developing as clusters of storms
move off the high terrain as the monsoonal moisture plume tilts to
the east. With the center of the ridge off to the east, a continuous
source of moisture will remain in place, keeping rounds of showers
and storms going though the weekend into the early part of the
following week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1117 PM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Storms have mostly ended around the region, except a few models
are showing storms regenerating between 06Z and 09Z in the
southeast plains. Other than that it should be a quiet night with
VFR conditions prevailing. Storms will develop over the high
terrain of central and northern NM around 18Z tomorrow, moving
slowly to the SW through the afternoon. Overall coverage will be
slightly lower than the past couple of days, but gusty outflow
wind gusts will continue to be the main concern at most terminals.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 100 AM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through the next 7
days. Scattered to numerous storms are likely each afternoon and
evening, generally favoring the high terrain of central and northern
NM. Storms will trend up in coverage Thursday through Saturday as a
moisture plume sets up over New Mexico. Northeast to southwest storm
motion today will become more slow and erratic Tuesday and
Wednesday, before becoming south to north late week. Widespread
wetting rainfall is likely by the end of the week, with localized
areas of 3"+ over the high terrain and in eastern NM. Outside of
gusty outflow winds near storms, winds will generally be light the
next several days.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  96  61  97  63 /  10  20  10  20
Dulce...........................  90  46  91  47 /  60  40  40  20
Cuba............................  86  56  90  57 /  50  50  30  20
Gallup..........................  92  52  93  55 /  40  40  30  40
El Morro........................  87  54  87  55 /  50  60  50  50
Grants..........................  89  54  91  56 /  50  60  40  40
Quemado.........................  88  56  89  58 /  60  60  60  60
Magdalena.......................  85  61  88  63 /  50  40  50  30
Datil...........................  84  55  86  57 /  50  40  60  40
Reserve.........................  89  53  91  54 /  70  50  70  50
Glenwood........................  91  58  94  59 /  70  50  70  40
Chama...........................  83  47  84  48 /  60  40  50  20
Los Alamos......................  84  61  86  61 /  40  40  50  20
Pecos...........................  83  57  86  57 /  30  30  50  20
Cerro/Questa....................  82  54  85  55 /  60  40  60  20
Red River.......................  73  46  76  46 /  70  40  60  20
Angel Fire......................  76  41  78  40 /  40  30  60  20
Taos............................  85  51  88  52 /  50  40  40  20
Mora............................  79  51  83  51 /  30  30  50  20
Espanola........................  91  59  94  60 /  40  30  30  20
Santa Fe........................  84  61  87  62 /  40  30  40  20
Santa Fe Airport................  88  59  91  59 /  30  30  30  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  90  68  93  68 /  30  30  30  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  91  67  94  67 /  20  30  20  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  94  66  97  66 /  20  30  20  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  92  67  95  67 /  20  30  20  20
Belen...........................  93  63  96  63 /  20  20  20  30
Bernalillo......................  93  65  96  66 /  30  30  20  20
Bosque Farms....................  93  63  96  63 /  20  20  20  30
Corrales........................  93  67  96  67 /  30  30  20  20
Los Lunas.......................  93  64  96  64 /  20  20  20  30
Placitas........................  89  65  92  65 /  30  30  30  20
Rio Rancho......................  92  66  95  67 /  30  30  20  20
Socorro.........................  94  67  96  68 /  30  30  20  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  84  59  87  60 /  30  30  30  20
Tijeras.........................  86  61  89  61 /  30  30  30  30
Edgewood........................  86  56  89  55 /  30  30  30  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  86  54  90  53 /  30  20  30  20
Clines Corners..................  81  56  85  57 /  20  20  30  20
Mountainair.....................  84  58  87  58 /  40  20  30  20
Gran Quivira....................  83  57  86  59 /  40  20  30  20
Carrizozo.......................  84  63  88  65 /  40  20  30  20
Ruidoso.........................  76  56  80  59 /  60  20  40  10
Capulin.........................  81  55  85  54 /  10  20  20  20
Raton...........................  86  54  90  53 /  20  20  30  20
Springer........................  88  55  91  54 /  20  20  30  20
Las Vegas.......................  82  54  86  54 /  20  20  40  20
Clayton.........................  87  63  92  64 /   5  10  10  10
Roy.............................  84  59  89  58 /  10  10  10  20
Conchas.........................  91  65  96  65 /  10  10  10  20
Santa Rosa......................  88  63  93  63 /  10  10  10  20
Tucumcari.......................  89  63  94  63 /   5  10   5  10
Clovis..........................  89  64  92  65 /  10  10   5  10
Portales........................  89  65  92  66 /  10  10   5   5
Fort Sumner.....................  89  65  93  66 /  10  10   5  10
Roswell.........................  92  68  95  69 /  10  10   5   5
Picacho.........................  85  61  89  62 /  30  10  10   5
Elk.............................  81  58  85  60 /  50  10  20   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 11 AM MDT this morning through this evening for
NMZ226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16