Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 230807
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
407 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MORE WARM MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR TODAY...ALONG WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...JUST AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS ENDING BY
LATER THIS EVENING. PLEASANT SUMMER WEATHER...WITH MUCH LOWER
HUMIDITY LEVELS...IS IN STORE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
350 AM WED UPDATE... A WARM MUGGY OVERNIGHT PD HAS
TRANSPIRED...WITH TEMPS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE UPR 60S-UPR 70S
RANGE ACRS CNY/NE PA AS OF ABT 08Z. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR TO PTLY
CLDY ATTM...AND ARE LIKELY TO STAY THAT WAY THROUGH
DAYBREAK...WITH AN UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE LN ONLY GRADUALLY PUSHING
EWD ACRS SRN ONT...AND INTO FAR WRN NY.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOTED TDY WITH REGARDS TO THE
TIMING/PROGRESSION OF A SFC COLD FRNT INTO...AND EVENTUALLY
THROUGH OUR FA. NWP CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS BNDRY MOVES INTO OUR
WRN ZNS (GENERALLY AREAS W OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR) IN THE 18-21Z
TIME FRAME...AND THEN CROSSES OUR SRN AND ERN ZNS FROM ABT 21-00Z.
GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF SOME SUNSHINE/DECENT SFC HEATING AHD OF
THE FRNT THIS MRNG INTO THE EARLY AFTN HRS...AND THE FAIRLY HIGH
THETA-E CONTENT AMS IN PLACE (SFC DEW PTS MAINLY IN THE 65-70F
RANGE)...WE SHOULD DESTABILIZE PRETTY RAPIDLY. PROGGED ML CAPE
VALUES GENERALLY MAX OUT IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE LTR
TDY...WITH LOCALIZED 2000-2500 J/KG POCKETS IN OUR SERN ZNS. GIVEN
THE ABV REFERENCED MOISTURE AND INSTAB...ALG WITH FORCED LIFT FROM
A PASSING S/WV AND THE COLD FRNT ITSELF...SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD
BECOME NUMEROUS BY AFTN.

THE POSSIBILITY REMAINS THAT A FEW STORMS BECOME SVR THIS
AFTN...GIVEN ADEQUATE BUOYANCY...AND MARGINALLY FAVORABLE DEEP-
LYRD SHEAR (0-6 KM VALUES ARND 30 KT). STG WINDS WOULD SEEM TO BE
THE MAIN THREAT...WITH FAIRLY STEEP LOW-LVL LR`S...AND A FAVORABLE
COMBO OF DECENT 0-2 KM SR FLOW AND WEAK EL SR FLOW (LIKELIHOOD OF
TRAILING STRATIFORM TYPE STORMS). THE BEST CHC FOR LOCALIZED SVR
STORMS WILL BE ACRS OUR SRN TUG HILL...WRN MOHAWK VLY...WRN
CATSKILL...AND POCONO ZNS. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH SPC`S SLGT RISK
OUTLOOK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN`T BE RULED OUT EITHER...WITH
FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY WIND PROFILES (SMALL MBE VECTORS AT
TIMES) AND A JUICY AMS (PWATS OF 1.75-2"). STG WINDS AND +RA WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

GIVEN INCREASING CLDS/CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BY AFTN...TEMPS WON`T BE
QUITE AS WARM TDY AS THEY WERE ON TUE (HIGHS RANGING IN THE 80S
AREA-WIDE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM WED UPDATE... THE SFC FRNT IS EXPECTED TO DECELERATE TNT AS
IT HEADS TWDS THE EAST COAST. AS A RESULT...WE CONTINUE TO CARRY
SOME LINGERING SHWRS OVERNIGHT IN OUR SRN AND ERN ZNS...WITH
DIMINISHING POPS AS YOU HEAD FURTHER N AND W.

ON THU...WE SHOULD SEE GRADUAL CLEARING IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY A SUNNIER AFTN...AS THE MAIN UPR-LVL TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH THE SFC
FRNTL ZN FARTHER EWD AND OFF THE COAST. THE MAIN STORY THU WILL BE
COOLER TEMPS AND LWRG HUMIDITY LVLS (HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S).

FRI LOOKS LIKE A REAL WINNER FROM THIS VANTAGE PT...AS SFC RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE W TO BRING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...ALG WITH
COMFORTABLE TEMPS (HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S-LWR 80S)...AND CONTINUED
LOW HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
140 PM UPDATE...
EXTNDD PORTION OF THE FCST WL START OFF WITH SFC HIPRES SHIFTING OFF
THE EAST COAST. RETURN FLOW MAY MAKE A RUN AT CWA DRG THE AFTN HRS
ON SAT, THO MAINLY ACRS THE SW ZONES. MED RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
DISAGREE ON EXACT LOCATION OF LOPRES SYSTEMS/FRONTAL BNDRYS IN BROAD
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. ALL IN ALL, APPEARS TO BE A VRY UNSETTLED PATTERN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. L/WV TROF EVENTUALLY CLOSES OFF INTO UPR LOW
BY 12Z MONDAY AND HV CONTD CHC THUNDER THRU TUE MRNG. MAX TEMPS SHUD
BE IN THE UPR 70S AND MINS SHUD BE IN THE U50S/NR 60, DUE TO CONTD
CLD CVR AND MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.

AFTER A HUMID MORNING, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NY AND PA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG
THE FRONT, PRODUCING BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT THE NY TERMINALS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON, BEFORE MOVING
TOWARD AVP NEAR SUNSET.

DRIER AIR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT/THU...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SHRA/TSRA. FRONT CLEARS THE REGION BY LATE
THURSDAY.

FRI/SAT...VFR.

SUN...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...DJP






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