Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 280517
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
117 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure remains in control with above normal
temperatures and modest humidity. A weak cold front moves into
the region Thursday...which may help to fire some isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
730 pm update...
Upped clouds some with mid and high clouds moving into NY. Lowered
min temps slightly closer to guidance which has been very good on
the mins lately. Rest looks good for tonight and Thursday.

previous discussion...
Surface high pressure continues to keep the region dry and the
diurnal cumulus will dissipate quickly close to sunset. Mainly
clear skies and light winds will allow for another night of river
valley fog overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Models in pretty good agreement allowing for strong forecast
confidence for the period. Weak cold front will drop into the
region Thursday and allow for isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the region...should not start to fire up
until early to mid afternoon. The chance of precip will linger
into Friday...with the best chances for more than a tenth to a
quarter inch of rain will be across NE PA. Locally heavier amounts
more likely in NE PA as atmosphere gets pretty juicy down that way
with PWATs well above seasonal levels. The front looks to push
south and east by late Friday afternoon or early evening allowing
for drier and slightly cooler conditions for Friday evening and
Saturday. Though with that being said...the temps will still be
slightly above seasonal averages.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Medium range models are in fair agreement through the extended
forecast. A weak upper level wave combined with surface low
pressure in the mid atlantic region will bring a chance for
showers and thunderstorms late Saturday night through Sunday
night. Monday through Wednesday looks mainly dry as upper level
heights build and surface high pressure remains in the vicinity.

Temperatures will start at seasonal levels over the weekend then
warm back above normal early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Still expecting generally VFR conditions tonight under mostly clear
skies. Have lower confidence in valley fog potential early this
morning at ELM but still maintaining a tempo grp for MVFR vsbys.
Early today will continue to see VFR conditions, however high
level clouds will begin to move in from the NW and SW through the
late morning and afternoon. May see scattered to isolated showers
and thunderstorms after 21Z with brief mvfr conditions possible
at any site that gets a brief shower. Confidence is slightly
higher in the overall potential for precipitation...so added
PROB30 grps to all terminals this late afternoon and evening.

Winds remain light/variable or calm this morning...increasing
from the southwest 5 to 10 kts in the afternoon and becoming
northwest later in the day before light and variable again
tonight.

OUTLOOK...

Thursday night-Friday night...Scattered to isolated showers and
thunderstorms. Mostly VFR but brief restrictions in any
convection.

Saturday...VFR.

Saturday night through Sunday night...Scattered to isolated showers
and thunderstorms. Mostly VFR but brief restrictions in any
convection.

Monday...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABS/TAC
NEAR TERM...ABS/TAC
SHORT TERM...ABS
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...BJT


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