Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 122337
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
637 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MAKE BRIEF SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE FRONT WILL BRING
IN BITTERLY COLD AIR WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL DIVE WELL BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT.
AFTER SOME WARMING MONDAY...A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
IMPACT OUR REGION LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY ON THE STORM TRACK...PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS OFF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO WELL NORTH AND WEST OF CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THERE WAS A WIDE AREA OF
LIGHT ECHOES COVERING MOST OF PA INTO SOUTHERN NY AT THIS TIME
ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL SHORT WAVE RIPPLING NORTHEAST ACROSS PA
AND NY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MOST OF THESE ECHOES WERE VIRGA
SINCE IT WAS SO DRY BELOW. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR SOME FLURRIES MAINLY TO NORTHEAST PA AND THE CATSKILLS EARLY
THIS EVENING WELL AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT WHICH IS PROJECTED TO
REACH THE FINGER LAKES TO UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY BY 3-5Z AND FROM
COOPERSTOWN-BINGHAMTON AND TOWANDA BY 6-7Z AND ACROSS AVP-MSV BY
8-9Z. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SNOW SQUALL TIED
TO THIS FRONT INITIALLY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL TAP INTO
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE FROM LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.
HOWEVER AS THIS SNOW SQUALL MOVES AWAY FROM THE LAKES IT IS
PROJECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE LOW-LEVELS BECOME LESS UNSTABLE AWAY
FROM LAKE MOISTURE. HENCE WE SEE A SNOW SQUALL REACHING ROUGHLY
FROM SYR-PEO BY ABOUT 3-5Z...UCA- ELM BY 4-6Z AND THE COOPERSTOWN
TO BGM AND TOWANDA BY 6-8Z OR SO. BY THIS TIME IT SHOULD WEAKEN
AND NOT BE SIGNIFICANT AS IT TRAVELS FARTHER S AND E. AFTER THIS
SQUALL PASSES, LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL FILL
INTO DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ON A 300 DEGREE FLOW PATTERN. ALL
THE CLOUDS WILL BE COLDER THAN THE MAXIMUM GROWTH REGIME FOR ICE
CRYSTALS AND THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE VERY DRY. THIS WILL PRECLUDE A
MAJOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT FOR ONONDAGA...SOUTHERN
CAYUGA...MADISON...CHENANGO AND CORTLAND COUNTIES. WE SEE MAYBE 2
TO 6 INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM LATER THIS EVENING TO
SATURDAY EVENING. HENCE NO LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY NEEDED. WITH
THE WINDS WE DO ALSO HAVING BLOWING SNOW IN GRIDS THROUGH SAT.

COLD AIR PLUNGES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 850
MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO THE MINUS 20S C SATURDAY AND BOTTOMING
OUT AROUND -29C OR SO BY 6Z SUNDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO RANGE FROM 15
TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS LOCALLY TO 45 MPH AT TIMES. WIND CHILLS
PLUMMET INTO THE DANGEROUS CATEGORY WITH SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
SEEING CHILLS DOWN BELOW MINUS 40 SAT NGT/EARLY SUN. HENCE KEPT
WIND CHILL WARNINGS GOING ALL ZONES. THIS COLD AIR MASS COULD
RIVAL SOME OF THE COLDEST ONES LAST YEAR FOR THE UPPER MOHAWK TO
THE CATSKILLS. FARTHER WEST A 300 DEGREE L0W-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL
WARM THE SURFACE LATER SOME FROM LAKE ONTARIO. SO WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING SUCH EXTREME COLD FARTHER WEST INTO THE FINGER LAKES,
SOUTHERN TIER AND NE PA. IT STILL WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN THESE
AREAS AND LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 5 TO 15 BELOW LOCALLY BY
SUNDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 15 BELOW TO 35 BELOW
WITH THE COLDEST VALUES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THESE AREAS.
IN FACT THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THIS
ARCTIC OUTBREAK SINCE THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE WELL MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND COVERS THE REGION BY SUN
PM. THIS WILL DROP THE WIND SPEEDS AND WITH SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE
THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL MIGRATE
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND CLOUDS WILL
STREAM IN AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS. IT LOOKS LIKE THICKER
CLOUD COVER REACHES ROUGHLY FROM BUF-MSV BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS CLOUD
COVER AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP MUCH OF NE PA AND
SC NY/FINGER LAKES FROM RADIATING TO BELOW ZERO SUN NGT. WE SEE
BELOW ZERO READINGS...POSSIBLY TO BELOW 10 BELOW ZERO FROM THE
UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY TO THE DEEPER VALLEYS IN DELAWARE AND
OTSEGO/MADISON AND CHENANGO COUNTIES BY MONDAY AM.

FOR MONDAY WE WILL SEE A SHOT OF WAA LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS
THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN BELOW 0C. SINCE THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE
VERY DRY AND THIS FIRST WAVE DOES NOT HAVE THAT MUCH MOISTURE
REACHING OUR AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY WE ONLY SEE LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. MODEL QPF IS BELOW .1 INCHES MONDAY SO NOT SEEING
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT BEFORE 00Z TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
330 PM THU UPDATE...
LARGE SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE IN MOST MODELS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY...INCLUDING A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT THERE IS A HUGE QUESTION MARK FOR STORM TRACK
AND THUS PRECIPITATION TYPES.

12Z ECMWF HAS THE STRONGEST CYCLOGENESIS...AS WELL AS THE
WESTERNMOST WARM AIR ADVECTION DUE TO ITS SURFACE LOW TRACK
STAYING INLAND AND HEADING DIRECTLY THROUGH OUR REGION. THIS
SCENARIO WOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION FROM LIGHT SNOW...TO WINTRY
MIX/ICE...TO PLAIN RAIN AND POTENTIALLY A LOT OF IT. BEING
PRECEDED BY OUR ARCTIC WEEKEND WITH FROZEN GROUND...ANY RAIN WOULD
DIRECTLY RUN OFF INTO STREAMS AND COULD CAUSE ISSUES IF THIS CAME
TO PASS. 12Z GFS IS FURTHER EAST WITH ITS TRACK...AND QUITE A BIT
COLDER THAN ECMWF WITH ITS INLAND TEMPERATURES. THIS WOULD POSE
BOTH A HEAVY SNOW THREAT /ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-81/ AND A
POTENTIAL WINTRY MIX TO SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOWARDS POCONOS-
CATSKILLS. AND FINALLY...12Z GEM GLOBAL AND 18Z GFS MODELS HAVE
LESS PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS...AND THUS A
WEAKER FASTER SURFACE LOW WITH FURTHER EAST TRACK /LONG ISLAND/.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD GIVE US MAINLY SNOW...HEAVIEST SOUTHEAST AND
PERHAPS LEAVING MUCH OF OUR AREA WITH ONLY A LITTLE SNOW...THAT
IS...MOSTLY MISSING THE REGION. ALSO THE 18Z GFS...BEING WEAKER
WITH THE MON NGT-TUE LOW...GIVES ENERGY TO A CLIPPER SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD BRING SNOW THEN. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY
QUIETER BUT A WARM FRONT COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE AT
PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY AS WELL AS MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

KEY POINTS AT THIS JUNCTURE ARE THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM OF SOME FORM LATE MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY...AND THE FORECAST BEARS CLOSE MONITORING AS THE DETAILS
BECOME CLEARER IN COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SNOW SQUALLS THROUGH THE NY TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT, BRINGING TEMPORARY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS OF 1 MILE OR
LESS. THEREAFTER, A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WILL SET UP NEAR
SYR/RME/ITH. THE SNOW WILL KEEP MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN THE
TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS, WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35
KNOTS, ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE BLOWING SNOW, FURTHER
RESTRICTING VISIBILITIES.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT INTO SUN...RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AT KSYR
AND KITH, WITH OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT KELM AND KBGM.
KRME AND KAVP SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR.

MON...VFR.

MON NGT-TUE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION.

WED...ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/MDP
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DJP


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