Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 221511
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1011 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S ACCOMPANIED
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TODAY MAY BE THE DAY WE MAY SEE A FEW
BREAKS CLOUDS. BUT... A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN
MIDWEST IN COMBINATION WITH A LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
MIXING WITH SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM EST UPDATE...
LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN CATSKILLS
AND THE FAR NORTHERN TIPS OF THE POCONOS THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS ARE
SCATTERED LIKE IN NATURE AND ARE PRODUCING VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS ARE EXPECTED. UPDATED THE POPS TO
CAPTURE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.

AND IT IS STILL CLOUDY OUTSIDE. IT IS THE STORY OF THE LAST 14
DAYS. IT LOOKS IKE THERE ARE SOME SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BUT
WITH CIRRUS MOVING INTO THE REGION IT IS STILL QUESTIONABLE ON HOW
MUCH SUN WE WILL ACTUALLY SEE. SO... DECIDED TO BE MORE
PESSIMISTIC AND KEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST IN FORECAST. TEMPS
UNDER DENSE CLOUD DECK IS RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. ONLY
EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE A FEW DEGREES TODAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION
PLEASE READ PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
4 AM UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY ERODED OVER WESTERN PA AND WEST CENTRAL
PA. WHILE HIGH CLOUDS MAY FILTER THE SUNSHINE FROM TIME TO TIME,
TODAY WILL MARK THE BEST CHANCE FOR SUNSHINE THAT WE HAVE SEEN IN
2 WEEKS. SUNSHINE CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST WEST OF I-81, DECREASING
POINTS EAST. LATE IN THE DAY CLOUDS THICKEN UP AGAIN AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

TRICKY CALL TONIGHT IN TERMS OF MIXED PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.
ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE BETWEEN 23Z AND 03Z, NORTHEAST
PA/SULLIVAN COUNTY NY, 03Z TO 06Z SOUTHERN TIER OF NY, AFTER 06Z
ELSEWHERE.

THROUGH 03Z, A MIXED BAG IS EXPECTED OVER NEPA AND SULLIVAN
COUNTY. IN THE HIGHER POPULATED AREAS OF THE WYOMING VALLEY
(WILKES-BARRE/SCRANTON) A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED AT THE START
BUT WITH SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AND WARMING ALOFT, A
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN WILL QUICKLY HAPPEN WITH NO ICE OR SNOW
AMOUNTS EXPECTED. A 1 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS BUT EVEN HERE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING
FAIRLY QUICKLY AND IT WOULD TAKE AN EARLY ONSET OF PRECIP TO CAUSE
ANY PROBLEMS. AFTER COORDINATION WITH PHILLY AND NYC, DECIDED
AGAINST A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HERE GIVEN SUCH AN EXPECTED SHORT
DURATION. THIS MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE LACK OF ICE IN WPC
GUIDANCE.

AFTER 03Z, MOST AREAS AGAIN MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WET SNOW OR
SLEET AT THE ONSET MIXED WITH RAIN BEFORE QUICKLY CHANGING TO
RAIN. HOWEVER WHERE THE COLDER AIR IS KNOWN TO HANG TOUGH, AT
LEAST A FEW HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FROM NORTH CENTRAL
WAYNE COUNTY PA NORTHEAST THROUGH SULLIVAN, DELAWARE AND OTSEGO
COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST HERE WE WILL EVENTUALLY NEED A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY GIVEN CLIMATOLOGY MATCHING CURRENT MODEL
OUTPUT. BASED ON COLLABORATION WITH ALBANY WILL LET THE DAY-SHIFT
TAKE ONE MORE LOOK AT THINGS WITH PRECIPITATION HERE ARRIVING NEAR
OR AFTER 03Z TONIGHT. EVEN HERE A CHANGE TO ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED
AFTER 08Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
340 AM UPDATE...
WET PERIOD AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA...WITH
GUSTY WINDS AS WELL BY CHRISTMAS DAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN AND
MIXES LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WITH SNOW SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S TUESDAY...WITH ANY
LINGERING THREAT OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE CATSKILLS QUICKLY
ENDING AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAWN. SW TO SSW FLOW WILL HAVE
MULTIPLE WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN IT...BUT FOR TUESDAY MOISTURE WILL
BE VERY LIMITED. RAIN CHANCES HIGHER TOWARDS POCONOS-
CATSKILLS...BUT ALL RAIN TUESDAY WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL BY LATE WEDNESDAY. WAVES WILL BE ABLE TO HARNESS THE
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF BATCHES OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN.
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN PARTICULAR CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE A BROAD FEW
TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. SPEED OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
AT THIS POINT THOUGH APPEARS UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE ENOUGH RAINFALL
FOR WATER PROBLEMS.

NEGATIVELY TILTING SHOWERY COLD-OCCLUDED FRONT TO BLAST THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT-EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING. PRIOR TO
THAT...STABLE LOW LEVELS WILL PREVENT MUCH WIND FROM MIXING TO THE
GROUND...BUT AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION MAKES THINGS UNSTABLE. GFS IS MOST BULLISH ON WIND
IN REGARDS TO STRONG PRESSURE RISES THURSDAY...AND STRONG GRADIENT
WINDS CAPABLE OF MIXING DOWN...YET THE ECMWF ALSO EXHIBITS CLASSIC
NEGATIVE TILT TO THE UPPER WAVE WHICH IS ALSO SUGGESTIVE OF GUSTY
WINDS. I HAVE PLACED 30-40 MPH GUSTS IN THE FORECAST...HIGHEST IN
FINGER LAKES TO CENTRAL NEW YORK TO WESTERN CATSKILLS...BUT
ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS /FREQUENT GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH/ ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE ASSESSED FURTHER WITH
UPCOMING MODEL RUNS.

MODEL TREND OF DECREASING MAGNITUDE OF POST FRONTAL COLD AIR MASS
CONTINUES. IN THE LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY /BEST COVERAGE IN
CENTRAL NY WITH LITTLE IF ANY IN NORTHEAST PA/ BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...925-850MB TEMPERATURES ARE NOT AS
COLD AS IN PRIOR RUNS. THUS MANY AREAS ESPECIALLY LOWER ELEVATIONS
MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS CHRISTMAS DAY...GRADUALLY MIXING WITH SNOW
SHOWERS WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION IF ANY INTO CHRISTMAS NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FNT SWINGS THRU FRI NGT AND RETURNS THE AREA TO MORE TYPICAL
EARLY WINTER WX. CONTD CAA WILL GRADUALLY LWR TEMPS THRU THE PD
INCRSG THE CHANCE OF LE SNOW SHWRS. SHEARED FLOW INITIALLY BHD
THE FNT WILL LIMIT THE AMT OF LE...WHILE THE DEEPER COLD AIR AITS
TO JUST BEYOND THE PD LATE SUN AND EARLY MON.

TEMPS WILL AVG NEAR NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TOUGH TAF FORECAST ESPECIALLY KITH/KELM THROUGH KAVP WHERE LOW
CLOUDS ARE NOW ERODING ON A SOUTHEAST FLOW. BEST CHANCE TO IMPROVE
TO VFR WILL BE AT KSYR AND KELM, DUE TO THIS SOUTHEAST FLOW
DOWNSLOPING. ELSEWHERE MVFR CIGS CONTINUE THROUGH END OF TAF
PERIOD.

PRECIPITATION OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS EARLY TONIGHT AS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. SOME ICE PELLETS POSSIBLE NY TERMINALS. FOR NOW I
LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN. SOME OF THIS IS POSSIBLE
MAINLY AT KBGM, BUT TOO LOW CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE JUST YET. AFTER
AN INITITAL WINTRY MIX, MAINLY JUST RAIN EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS.

WINDS LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO EAST 5 TO 10 KTS INCREASING TO 10 KTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE TO THURS...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE- THURS.

FRI...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH/MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...HEDEN









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