Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 222356
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
756 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the region, tonight into Monday,
to bring rain-free conditions. We also expect moderating
temperatures, with daytime highs back into the sixties on both
days. Our next chance of showers, will come Monday night and
Tuesday, with a weak disturbance moving up the East Coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
800 pm update...
Made some significant adjustments to cloud cover this evening to
account for higher clouds from short wave rippling
northeast across the middle atlantic states. Also kept
isolated rain showers in Oneida County for another 1-2 hours
given radar trends. Low clouds clearing as expected but will
keep more clouds in forecast this evening with more clearing
later tonight after short wave passes by. Made only minor
adjustments to minimum temperatures.

245 pm update... Stratocumulus clouds continue to hold
stubbornly over most of the region as of mid-afternoon.
However, a clearing trend has been developing across southern
Ontario and far western/northern NY. As drier low-level air
pushes in, we expect clearing skies to continue to work towards
the southeast, first developing over the Finger Lakes, Mohawk
Valley, and southern Tug Hill areas later this afternoon,
eventually reaching NY`s southern tier and NEPA during the
course of the evening. Other than some patchy thin cirrus
clouds, later tonight should feature generally clear skies.

Winds will also become light overnight, with a surface high
pressure ridge approaching. The combination of clear skies and
little wind, along with wet ground conditions, and added
evapotranspiration as leaves continue to come out in the river
valleys, should lead to some patchy fog towards daybreak.

Readings will be chilly overnight, ranging from the mid 30s-
lower 40s in most areas by daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
250 pm update... A quiet weather pattern is in store, with a
large high pressure ridge our dominant feature.

Sunday will feature sunny skies, still relatively light winds,
and milder temperatures than we`ve experienced today. Afternoon
highs should range in the 60s. Sunday night will be mainly clear
once again, with overnight lows in the upper 30s and 40s.

Monday should remain generally rain-free, although a developing
east-southeast flow is expected to bring an increase in clouds,
particularly for NEPA and the Western Catskills of NY.
Typically in these types of patterns, our Lake Ontario plain
counties of CNY see the warmest temperatures, while the Pocono
plateau and the Catskills are cooler. This should be the case
again Monday, with afternoon highs ranging from the mid-upper
50s over the higher terrain of the Poconos and Catskills, to the
mid-upper 60s from the central southern tier and Finger Lakes
areas, up towards Syracuse, the Mohawk Valley, and the southern
Tug Hill region.

Although a few light showers or sprinkles can`t be ruled out
late in the day over NEPA and Sullivan county NY, we expect the
vast majority of the rainfall to hold off until after dark.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
330 pm update...
Main concerns in the long term are focused around the potential
for rain showers Monday night and Tuesday, with another shot of
showers and possibly a few storms Wednesday night and
Thursday...and the onset of additional scattered showers and
storms heading into the weekend. Will also highlight the warming
trend that will be felt through the latter half of the week.

A closed low off the coast of South Carolina Monday evening
will lift to the n/ne Tuesday night along the mid-Atlantic
coast, and eventually off the New England coast Wednesday
night. As this large scale system move north, a narrow band of
deep moisture embedded within a short wave ahead of the system
will act to produce a few rain showers across PA/NY Monday
night. The rain will likely be fairly persistent through the day
Tuesday as the main forcing from the upper low rotates newd
along the coast. The best chance for a quarter to half inch of
rain will likely be east of I-81. The drier air to the west will
likely limit the amt of rain to less than a two tenths of an
inch west of I-81.

As soon as the upper low passes to the east, upper level ridging
and large scale suppression will begin, which will act to end
much of the rain Wednesday morning. Will see fairly significant
warm air advection on Wed, but with conditions remaining fairly
dry as the upper ridge remains in place. Much of central NY and
ne PA will see a noticeable warm up, with highs topping out in
the 70s.

The ridge axis begins to shift to the east Wed night and Thur
morning as the next upper low begins to roll ewd through the
Great Lakes. This next system appears to have rather cold air
associated with it...850mb temps -10 to -15 deg C...but the air
mass is not expected to make a direct impact on cntrl NY and ne
PA as the track of the low will remain well to the north. The
cold front extending to the south will only brush the region on
Thursday with a few showers and thunderstorms. The cold front
will transition to a warm/stationary front on Friday and
continue to tap into the warm/humid air mass being drawn up
from the south under a building upper level ridge. The front
will linger into the weekend and allow the active
showery/stormy pattern to persist as well.

Temperatures in the 70s and possibly lower 80s will continue
late in the week, and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
730 pm update...

Stratocumulus clouds at around 3k ft are on the way out to the
southeast now. Another hour or two at most. MVFR cig at BGM
until 01z. VFR rest of tonight and Sunday. Skies will clear
tonight and continue through the day Sunday.

Biggest question will be if valley fog forms late tonight. Trees
starting to leaf out. High pressure will be moving in with clear
skies and calm winds. ELM could have IFR vsbys at times between
09 and 12z.

North winds at 5 to 10 kts this evening become light and
variable late tonight. sunday winds still light but general out
of the west at 4 to 8 kts.

Outlook...

Sunday night to Monday...VFR.

Monday night through Tuesday...Restrictions possible, as showers
move back into the region.

Wednesday...VFR.

Thursday...Restrictions again possible, with at least scattered
showers anticipated.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...TAC


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