Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 311805
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
205 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND EACH DAY. COOLER WEATHER WILL
TRANSITION TO MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS AN EVOLVING CUMULUS LAYER WITH THE
DAYTIME INSOLATION. THERE WERE SOME AREAS WHERE THE CUMULUS WAS
CLUMPING AND FORMING ISLD SHRA. ALTHOUGH THE FORCING WAS RATHER
WEAK...MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW CAPE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
DIMINISHES AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS MID-LVL SUBSDC DEVELOPS
A CAP ARND 15-20 KFT LATER TODAY. ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA WILL
CONTINUE TO EVOLVE ERLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH INSOLATION BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTHENING CAP BTWN 15 AND 20 KFT THINK MOST OF THE ACVTY
WILL BE LIMITED IN ITS STRENGTH AND I DON/T SEE A LOT OF TSRA
FORMING. THE EXCEPTION IS IN AREAS WHERE ENUF MESOSCALE LIFTING
FROM TERRAIN AND/OR BOUNDARIES COULD BE ENUF TO PUSH ABV THE CAP
TO HIGH ENUF FOR SOME THUNDER. FOR GRIDS HAVE BASICALLY POPS
PEAKING IN THE 30S LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

AS SUNSET APPROACHES AND PASSES ALL CONVECTIVE ACVTY WILL RAPIDLY
COME TO AN END AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. NEXT WAVE SEEN IN THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WAS MOVG INTO THE TENN AND LWR OH VLLY. THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY SPREAD SOME CIRRUS NORTHWARD TONIGHT REACHING NE PA
LATE TONIGHT. LOCAL FOG CHECKLIST SUGGESTS SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
SO WILL ADD TO GRIDS BTWN 07-13Z AS USUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FOR FRIDAY...ABV MENTIONED SHRT WAVE GETS CAUGHT UP ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THIS PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND INCREASES
CONFLUENCE UPSTREAM. THIS WILL INTENSIFY AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER
NRN ENGLAND WHICH WILL IN TURN SUPPORT LIFTG AND SCT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING WITH THE DAY/S HEATING MAINLY IN NE PA/CATSKILLS.
FARTHER N...THE PERSISTENT SWRLY FLOW AROUND THE NEARLY STATIONARY
SFC HI OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ADVECT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS UP THE
LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO PLAIN FRI. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHER CHC/S FOR
CONVECTION FRI PM WITH INSOLATION. SO HAVE CHC POPS NRN AND SRN
PART OF FORECAST AREA WITH SLGHT CHC IN THE MIDDLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
400 AM UPDATE...

AS THE DAY SHIFT MENTIONED YESTERDAY, A STAGNANT UNSETTLED PATTERN
WILL BE UPON US THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PRONOUNCED TROF IN THE
NORTHEAST NOW WILL STILL BE IN PLACE BUT IT WILL BROADEN OUT A
BIT. THE RESULT WILL BE A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR, WHICH WILL
HELP TO PUSH TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES OR AROUND 80 DURING THE
DAY AND 60 AT NIGHT. THE DOWNSIDE WILL BE VARIOUS WAVES OF ENERGY
WILL MOVE THROUGH HELPING TO BRING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL UPPER PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES THE SEVERAL MONTH
TREND OF A RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND TROUGHING OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. AT THIS POINT THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE DE-AMPLIFIED WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS CROSSING THE AREA. AS A RESULT WE EXPECT
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS NEAR 60.
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...
GENERALLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR SCT-BKN CUMULUS IS CONTINUING TO EVOLVE AND WILL CONT FOR THE
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A FEW ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA AROUND
BUT COVERAGE IS SPARSE ENUF TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. AFTER
SUNSET...SKIES WILL CLR. SOME MID-HI CLOUDS WILL REACH KAVP AFTER 10Z.
HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR BR AT KELM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WE WILL
SEE IFR SO HAVE MVFR FOR NOW. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE.
THIS IS A TOUGH CALL GIVEN THE PERSISTENT SRLY FLOW AND
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR N THE CIRRUS SHIELD MAKES IT WHICH WOULD
CUT OFF NET RADIATIONAL COOLING. OTHERWISE VFR OVRNGT.

FOR FRI AM...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CUMULUS TO DEVELOP. ANY IFR-MVFR
FOG WILL LIFT BY 13-14Z IF INDEED IT FORMS.

WINDS WILL BE W TO SWRLY UNDER 10 KNOTS THRU THE PD. THERE WILL
BE A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG
EARLY EACH MORNING FOR KELM.
TUE...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...DJN





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