Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 251035
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
635 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE QUITE A WARM MEMORIAL DAY...AND MAINLY DRY...THOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. WARM WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH MORE HUMIDITY AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM EDT UPDATE...
GRIDS TWEAKED JUST SLIGHTLY TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. RADAR
BARK MUCH WORSE THAN BITE...IN THAT THERE IS THERE APPEARS TO BE A
LOT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT DUE TO DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MUCH OF IT IS
VIRGA. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS BUT MAINLY JUST SPRINKLES EARLY THIS
MORNING...NORTH OF PENN YAN-CORTLAND-NORWICH-COOPERSTOWN...AND
THIS WILL EXIT QUICKLY THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DRY ELSEWHERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WARM AND MAINLY DRY MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY IS TAKING SHAPE FOR
OUR REGION.

SURFACE FRONT IS IN PROCESS OF MOVING SW TO NE THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTING MAINLY IN ONLY VIRGA FROM
THE ONTARIO PENINSULA INTO NORTHWESTERN NY. DESPITE THE APPEARANCE
OF REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY...BECAUSE OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR...I AM NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT EXITS.

WARM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY...WHICH
OVERALL WILL TEND TO INHIBIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EVEN THOUGH
HUMIDITY WILL BE GRADUALLY CLIMBING. A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE MAY
ATTEMPT TO RUN OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH SPOKE OF INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES. BUT WITH ABSENCE OF FORCING OTHER THAN THE WEAK SHORTWAVE
ITSELF...AND WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
LOOK QUITE SMALL. WHAT LITTLE THERE IS WILL BE MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE TWIN TIERS. I ALSO REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER...SINCE
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IN THE MODELS ARE ALMOST NIL /VERY LITTLE
IF ANY CAPE...LIFTED INDICES AND SHOWALTER VALUES ALMOST
EXCLUSIVELY POSITIVE/.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THEN FOR
TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS AND DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN MILD LOWS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HEADING INTO MIDWEEK, PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, AREA WILL BE IN DEEP SW FLOW AS RIDGE AXIS
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. TUESDAY
WILL DAWN DRY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS HOWEVER DO EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE UP BY THE AFTERNOON AS
DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN
FLOW TO TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. NAM AND GFS
INDICATE SB CAPES REACHING 500-1000+ J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
REACHING NEAR 30 KNOTS BY LATE DAY. ALSO, SPC HAS INCLUDED EXTREME
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH STEUBEN COUNTY IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT ABOVE
MENTIONED PARAMETERS ARE AT THE LOWER END THRESHOLD FOR ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, WE STILL CARRY THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IMPULSES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUE TO
RIDE NE IN THE FLOW AND LLJ STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AS
IT PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE NIGHT WILL BE MILD AND MUGGY
WITH BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.

WEDNESDAY STILL SHAPING UP TO BE POTENTIALLY INTERESTING....MAIN UPPER
TROUGH ADVANCES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH GREAT LAKES WITH LEAD
SHORTWAVE PUSHING EAST INTO THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON WITH AREA
STILL IN VERY WARM, MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF SURFACE
FRONT LAGGING BACK OVER LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS SET UP WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
COMPARED TO TUESDAY. PARAMETERS STILL INDICATING THAT HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT. IT`S STILL A BIT EARLY TO BE CONFIDENT
AS FAR AS ANY DETAILS BUT SOME THINGS NOTED IN GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE PWATS OF 1.80+ INCHES, DEEP LAYER NEAR SATURATION,
AND SLOW MBE VECTORS. CURRENTLY, BEST SET UP FOR THESE HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING STORMS LOOKS TO BE OVER NE PA AND FROM AROUND 81
EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL NY.

AS FRONT WILL ONLY BE PUSHING SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND ONLY REACHING
NW BOUNDARY OF CWA BY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT, STILL WILL LIKELY
SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AREA ALSO REMAINS
UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO REAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS STILL
DIFFER REGARDING HOW FAST FRONT PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY SO
KEPT CHANCE POPS IN. IN ANY EVENT, FRONT LOOKS TO WASH OUT NEAR OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKING BACK IN BY
FRIDAY. SO THE UPSHOT IS THAT THERE REALLY DOESN`T LOOK TO BE ANY
DAY THAT SEES A REAL SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPS OR DEW POINTS WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY STAYING IN THE 80S. NEW FRONT APPROACHES FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND WITH A NEW ROUND OF RAIN CHANCES HOWEVER MODELS
ALSO DIFFERING ON SPEED AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
A WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA...WITH CIGS
FOR THE NY TERMINALS LOWERING TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY UNDER 10 KFT
AGL. NON-RESTRICTIVE WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE SKIMMING BY KSYR-
KRME AROUND 12Z...OTHERWISE GENERALLY DRY FOR ALL TERMINALS TODAY.
BY THIS EVENING WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED NON-RESTRICTIVE SHOWERS FOR THE NY TERMINALS. INITIAL VARIABLE
OR LIGHT SE/S WIND EARLY MORNING...WILL BECOME SW LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON 9-12 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 18 KTS...BEFORE DECREASING
TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHRA-SCT TSRA...ESPECIALLY THE
TUE-WED TIME FRAME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...MDP


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