Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 291047
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
647 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will reaming over the region through Tuesday night.
This will result in dry weather seasonable temperatures. The next
chance for showers and thunderstorms come with a cold front on
Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
300 AM EDT Update...
Showers have finally dwindled down across the region this
morning and mostly cloudy skies with some spotty fog is present.
Cloud coverage will start to break apart early this morning as
drier and cooler air start to move into the region within NW flow
aloft. Cloud coverage will break up this morning and by mid
afternoon expect mostly sunny skies. The NW flow will bring us a
shot of cooler air. 850MB temps are forecast to fall 4 deg C to
11deg C, this morning, thus we will be almost 10 deg cooler today
than yesterday. Temps will rise into the upper 70s to low 80s. If
clouds are still lingering mid afternoon, they will soon dissipate
near sunset as it lose diurnal heating and subsidence due to an
area of high pressure building over the region. Expect mostly
clear skies to prevail through the night resulting in a chilly
start for Tuesday morning. Temps will fall into the low to mid 50s
Tues morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
300 AM EDT Update...
High pressure will dominate the weather on Tuesday with mostly clear
skies and a welcomed NW winds for much of the day. Cloud coverage
will slowly increase late Tuesday night due to WAA ahead of the
next storm system. A vort max will shift eastward Tues afternoon
from the Great Plains and propagate over NY/PA Wed afternoon. This
wave will help a frontal boundary move through the area, which may
generate showers and thunderstorms. This wave will also bring
another shot of cooler air. The best chance for showers and
thunderstorms will be Wed afternoon and the chances slowly dwindle
through the evening. Guidance hints that PWAT values will be
around 1.5 inches, thus we may see some heavy showers on Wed.

Max temps during the forecast period will range from upper 70s to
low 80s. Min temps Wed will range uppr 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
430 am Monday update...Fairly high confidence continues this
period, as medium range guidance remains reasonably consistent,
and in good agreement overall.

On the large scale, an amplified western North American upper
trough, central CONUS ridge, and eastern Canadian/northeast U.S.
trough pattern late in the week, will shift eastward with time,
allowing ridging to eventually build over the eastern states by
Sunday-Monday. This will bring mainly dry weather to NY/PA. Cool
temperatures Thursday into Saturday, will moderate Sunday and
thereafter, with readings ultimately returning above normal by early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Lingering low clouds through 14-15z will bring occasional MVFR
restrictions. Thereafter, clearing is expected, with VFR
anticipated through this evening.

Late tonight into early Tuesday, valley fog is expected to form,
primarily impacting KELM, with IFR/LIFR restrictions.

Surface winds will be NW today at 8-12 kt. Winds will diminish
this evening (after 00z Tuesday).

OUTLOOK...
Tuesday...Other than potential early morning fog at KELM, VFR is
expected.

Wednesday...Brief restrictions from showers/storms are possible,
but mainly VFR.

Thursday-Friday...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ



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