Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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225
FXUS61 KBGM 241944
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
344 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Summer like weather will be with us all week, with daytime highs
in the upper seventies and eighties. Wednesday afternoon showers
and thunderstorms are possible in central New York. Thursday to
Saturday scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
3 pm update...

Showers have moved out of the cwa. Removed thunder chances with
the instability in the Hudson Valley. Temperatures for much of the
area has risen to around 80. For this reason went close to or
above guidance next 3 days. High temp guidance has had a cold
bias.

Tonight skies will quickly clear as the cumulus field loses
daytime heating and the deeper moisture to the se slowly edges
east. Went close to guidance but valleys could be colder with calm
winds and clear skies. lows mostly in the upper 40s and lower 50s.

Wednesday some showers and maybe a thunderstorm across the north
in the afternoon. A weak front and short wave drop se on the east
side of the broad upper level ridge. Nothing too exciting with
weak shear and instability. Temperatures a little warmer into the
upper 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 pm update...

Thursday showers move in from the sw ahead of weak warm front. At
upper levels a short wave and building heights. This lift
combined with better moisture and diurnal heating will cause some
afternoon thunderstorms again. Showers will continue through
Thursday night into Friday.

With very warm humid air at the surface cape exceed 1k on the GFS
and of course much higher on the NAM. Shear is weak to moderate
but forcing is hard to find. The warm front could still be in the
east with weak convergence. Friday afternoon highs in the 80s and
dewpoints in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upr rdg remains in place thru the long term but back door fnt now
threatens the holiday. Aftn conv psbl Sat but by late
Sun...backdoor fnt starts to drop wwrd into wrn NY dvlpg conv
along the bdry. EURO and GFS both cont the wwrd mvmt into the
Holiday and wld bring cooler air...esp on Mon with an ely flow.
Cool air begins to withdraw by Tue and allows temps to rcvr a bit.
With uncertainty, went with gnrl chance pops thru the pd for conv
and the passage of the fnt. Dropped temps a few degrees with the
arrival of the cooler air.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Old upr low conts to spin off the NJ cst this aftn and will mve
only slowly to near BOX late tmrw. This will keep a nly flow of
cool but very dry air over the taf sites...contg the VFR conds. LL
will decpl tngt but dry air and strong winds just abv the bndry
lyr will keep fog from frmg at ELM.

OUTLOOK...

Thu thru Sun...Gnrl VFR conds thru the pd. Aftn tstms psbl anyday
with brief restrictions but best chance will be Sat and Sun.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM



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