Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 221102

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
702 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Rain continues to affect the forecast area through much of today
as a slow moving low pressure system moves through. The system
will finally depart tonight. This weekend will be cool and gusty.


7 am update...
no change.

4 AM update...

Rain continues over the CWA. Much lighter than yesterday. Amounts
will not be an issue. The heaviest amounts of an inch or less will
be across the east where there hasn`t been much yet. Rain moving
in from the south across the eastern counties. Radar bright
banding with ice in the clouds showing rates higher than observed.

Area under a slow moving upper level trough. The front and surface
low are well east off the east coast. Drier air will slowly move
in from the southwest behind the trough. This air will have a hard
time with cold northwest low level flow getting the lake effect
going. This already seen in the banding across central NY. Here
the precipitation is very light though. Either way clouds and rain
will be slow to end. Ending from Elmira to Scranton late today
then Binghamton tonight and far east toward morning. Some weak
lake effect showers could continue across the far north on a WNW
flow Sunday. Temperatures mostly in the low and mid 40s now with
cloudy skies today and caa. Highs will remain in the 40s. late
today low levels cold enough for rain to mix with snow at the
higher elevations. Tonight even colder as temps fall into the 30s.
Rain and snow could mix to the valley floor but by this time only
the ne half of cwa. Snow accumulations will be light and only at
higher elevations. Ground will be warm and wet. Showers will be
light so little qpf left. Snow amounts maybe up to an inch in the
Tug and Catskills. Sunday temperatures recover into the 50s as the
cold core with the trough moves east.

Winds late today will increase to 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts
as the gradient tightens. The surface low well to the east is
bombing. The nw winds will be deep with 40 to 50 mph low level
jet. Put out a wind advisory for Otsego, Delaware, and Sullivan
Counties. At the higher elevations wind gusts will be in the 40s.
With the wet ground a few trees could fall. This wind continues
into late Sunday before dropping rapidly Sunday evening.


4 am update...

Sunday night...A fast moving mid level wave and associated weak
surface low will move along the New York/Pennsylvania border.
System is lacking moisture and significant lift therefore will
keep pops in the chance category for rain showers with highest
pops in northeast Pennsylvania.

Monday and Monday night...A cold northwest flow will develop
behind this system with T85 dropping enough on Monday for lake
effect rain showers under 300 flow. Will cap pops at high chance
then drop them into the slight chance category Monday night as
flow becomes more northwest shortening the fetch along with a
drier airmass. Any activity Monday night will be mixed rain/snow
showers as boundary layer cools enough to support snow. Areas not
located southeast of lake Ontario will remain dry during this
period. Highs on Monday will range in the upper 40s to lower 50s
with lows Monday night in the 30s.


4 am update...

On Tuesday, lingering lake effect mixed rain/snow showers will
continue into Tuesday morning under primarily 300 flow. Rest of
area will remain dry under partly sunny skies. Surface high
pressure over eastern Canada will keep area dry but cool through
at least Wednesday night with temperatures running around 5 to 10
degrees below normal. GFS/ECMWF have significant differences late
in the period with the GFS keeping the area dry as low pressure
moving out of the mid west cuts off and drops into the gulf
states. The ECMWF shows this system moving from the mid west into
the eastern Great Lakes. Leaned toward the ECMWF solution and used
the superblend pops which gives the region chance pops for rain
showers Thursday through Friday night. A lot of uncertainty during
this portion of the extended forecast. Temperatures will rise back
into the seasonal range.


7 am update...

Wet weather with restrictions will continue this morning then
slowly improve this afternoon and tonight from the southwest.

IFR at ITH/BGM/SYR and fuel alternate MVFR rest of sites. RME
will fall to IFR by 15z.

AVP is at fuel alternate MVFR this morning then rise to upper end
MVFR this afternoon and VFR by evening. ELM is similar.

Other sites remain lower longer with rain ending ITH/BGM late
today and an improvement to high end MVFR this evening and VFR
late tonight.

SYR and RME IFR into this evening. SYR and RME improve to MVFR
tonight. RME may remain fuel alternate MVFR due to a mix of rain
and snow.

N/NW winds will remain 10 kts with some gusts to start with.
Increase to sustained 15 to 20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts this
afternoon into tonight. Wind direction shifts to nw then w.


Sunday...VFR most but RME improving to VFR.

Sunday night - Monday...Restrictions possible as weak system
moves through.

Tuesday - Wednesday...Mainly VFR.


NY...Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT Sunday for


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