Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 231752
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
152 PM EDT Tue May 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring dry weather and a mix of sun and clouds
to NY and PA through Wednesday. Low pressure will spread
showers and cooler weather back to our region for Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
130 PM update...
High pressure will yield a mostly clear and seasonable night.
Temperatures will drop to near 50 degrees Wednesday morning,
with enough moisture in the boundary layer to support fog or
low stratus formation. We are leaning toward fog at this
juncture due to the light wind flow. Crossover temperatures are
2 to 4 degrees below Wednesday morning`s projected minimums, but
that may be misleading as dew points are projected to rise a
few degrees overnight.

Brief ridging in southwest flow ahead of hte approaching stacked
system will push 925mb temperatures into the mid-teens on
Wednesday. Surface highs will push into the mid-70s as a
result.

1130 AM update...
Temperatures are rebounding after a very cool start to the
morning. Our grids depicted temperatures a little too warm
through noon, so we imported new mesoscale data to better fit
today`s diurnal curve.

Otherwise, no changes were necesssary. A mix of sun and clouds
is forecast with temperatures peaking in the lower to middle-
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
230 pm update...
By later Wednesday night and Thursday, it looks more likely
that rain will spread into the region. Confidence in the
aforementioned upper trough/upper low evolution is high, but
confidence in the exact precipitation structure and amounts are
lower. One scenario points toward heavier rain axes both well to
our east along the coast and also to our west through western
NY/PA, while another brings a more consolidated shot of rain
through CNY/NEPA. These details may not be hashed out for
another day or two, so for now, we`ll simply advertise likely
probabilities for rain.

Highs Thursday should be limited to the 60s, with clouds and
precipitation anticipated.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
240 pm update... The above mentioned upper low will be slow to
depart Friday, so thus showers, or even a period of steadier
rain, is likely to persist.

It still looks like we`ll see improvement for at least the start
of the holiday weekend, as the upper trough lifts out into the
north Atlantic, and the flow becomes more zonal aloft. From this
early vantage point, Saturday and Sunday look mostly rain-free,
with temperatures moderating back into the upper 60s and 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A quiet 24 hour period is forecast with high pressure fixed over
the region. VFR conditions and light winds will prevail. The
exception will be the early morning hours of Wednesday when fog
or low stratus is likely to form at KELM, and possibly at KITH
and KBGM.

Outlook...

Late Wednesday night through Friday night...Rain/showers with
associated restrictions likely due to low pressure system.

Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...DJP


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