Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 062257
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
657 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
NEW YORK TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE...BUT MOST
AREAS WILL SEE ONLY SHORT PERIODS OF RAIN. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM BRINGS MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHRA MOVING NORTHWARD INTO C NY
AND NRN PA IN ADVANCE OF A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS
PRESENTLY CENTERED OVER ERN OHIO/WRN PA. THE ISLD TO SCT SHRA THAT
HAS FORMED OVER C NY AND NRN PA WAS ASSCTD WITH LL MOISTURE ADVTN
IN THE PRESENCE OF THE MAX HEATING OF THE DAY. SPC MESOANALYSIS
WEBSITE HAS MUCH OF C NY/NE PA BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG. GIVEN
THAT LI/S WERE ALSO NEGATIVE A FEW PARCELS CUD GET HIGH ENUF FOR
TSRA SO HAVE ISLD TSRA IN GRIDS ALONG WITH SHRA THRU EARLY
EVENING. AFTER SUNSET...WE EXPECT THIS ACVTY TO WANE SO HAVE POPS
DROPPING OFF FOR A TIME BTWN 0 AND 6Z AS THE BNDRY LAYER
STABILIZES. LATER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS INTO NE
PA/SC NY I EXPECT MORE SHRA TO FLARE UP AGAIN SO INCREASE POPS
AFTER 6Z. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OPENING UP AND THERE WILL
BE SOME UPR LVL PV ADVTN ACRS ERN NY CLIPPING OUR ERN ZONES TUE AM
SO WITH INCREASING HEATING IN THE PRESENCE OF SOME UPPER FORCING
HAVE POPS CLIMBING ACRS OUR ERN ZONES TUE AM. THEN BY AFTERNOON
FORCING IS WEAK AS REGION IS BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL PV MAX AND
NEXT FRNT IS STILL WELL WEST OF REGION. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A
LULL TUE PM BUT STILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS IN COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING WFOS. GIVEN CAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG THERE CUD BE A FEW
TSRA POP UP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER HERE.

THEN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF WORKS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TO QUEBEC AND PUSHES A FRONT SOUTH INTO C NY TUE NGT AND
BY EARLY WED NE PA. SINCE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THIS
FRONT STAYS N OF THE REGION AND THE FRONT COMES THRU DURING THE
NGT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...THERE COULD
BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ESP TUESDAY EVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
WHERE THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND STRG LL MOISTURE
ADVTN. NAM SOUNDINGS FOR KELM TUE EVENING HAVE PWATS OVER 2 INCHES
WITH A 40 KNOTS LOW-LEVEL JET FROM THE SW. THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY
WILL BE WEST OF OUR AREA TUE PM SO THIS CUD LEAD TO BACK-BUILDING
CELLS. SO WILL CONT TO MENTION POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IN HWO TUE
NGT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES WE WILL HAVE HWO FOR WHOLE AREA BUT
IN THE WORDING EMPHASIZE THE WRN AREAS THE HARDEST AND MAINLY IN
THE EVENING. THE PRECIP SHUD WEAKEN AS IT WORKS INTO OUR EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN ZONES LATE TUE NGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD ALLOWING FOR
ABOVE AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE. ALL MODELS SHOWING THE FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...DECREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN
THROUGH THE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PWATS STILL ABOVE 1.5
INCHES SO SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT...WITH THAT SAID THE FRONT WILL
FLATTEN OUR SOME ACROSS PA WITH SOME PRECIP POSSIBLE LINGERING
ACROSS NE PA THROUGH THE EVENING. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ZONAL
AS ANOTHER WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER
SHOT AT PRECIP...SOME MODELS SHOW MOISTURE RECOVERING TO LEVELS
WITH PWATS NEARING 1.75 TO 1.9 INCHES ALLOWING FOR HEAVY RAIN
AGAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS. FLOW BECOMES MORE NW BEHIND THE WAVE AS
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE MS RVR VALLEY...AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
THE AREA. TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
AND JUST MINOR SFC FEATURE DIFFERENCES...PROVIDING BETTER FORECAST
CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH RESPECT TO THE
LONG TERM TRENDS...BUT TODAY THEY SEEM TO BE GRIPPING ONTO A
SOLUTION AND WILL MOVE THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION WITH THE 12Z
RUNS OF THE GFS AND EURO HAVING A VERY SIMILAR LOOK. NW FLOW TO
START THE PERIOD AS RIDGING STARTS TO RETRO FROM THE MS VALLEY INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE CONUS. OVER MOST OF THE WEEKEND
WEAK SFC HIGH WILL KEEP THE TEMPS JUST ABOVE SEASONAL AVGS AND
CONDITIONS DRY...LATE IN THE WEEKEND A TROUGH WILL START TO BUILD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CONUS...POSSIBLY CUTTING OFF BY
NEXT MONDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS CUT OFF LOW WILL LINGER FOR
AWHILE AND PRODUCE A THREAT FOR VERY WET CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK AS
PWATS LOOK TO CLIMB. ITS WELL INTO THE FUTURE...AND THINGS MAY
CHANGE IF THE POSITION OF THE CUT OFF SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGES...BUT
DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO WATCH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXISTS ALL TAF SITES IN C NY AND NE PA AT THIS
TIME. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOT OF CLEARING WITH MID AND
HIGHER CLOUDS POISED TO STREAM IN FROM PA. ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A S TO SE FLOW OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS STREAMING
NORTHWARD INTO C NY AND NE PA OVERNIGHT THRU 12Z. THIS MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO SATURATE OUT TO AN MVFR LAYER ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN
02Z AND 04Z ACRS KAVP-KELM-KBGM AND KITH AND BY 08Z IN OUR NRN
TAFS OF KSYR AND KRME. WE EXPECT OCNL IFR CONDITIONS AT KBGM-KITH-
KELM AND KAVP AFTER 8-9Z THRU 12Z. THIS AIRMASS HAD A LOT OF IFR
THIS MORNING DOWN IN VA AND MD AND TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST THE SAME
AIR MASS WILL BE OVHD TWD 12Z. BY 14-15Z OR SO...A WIND SHIFT TO
THE SW WILL OCCUR IN TANDEM WITH BNDRY LAYER HEATING AND
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR IN SCT CUMULUS BY AFTERNOON ALL
TAF SITES.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS TUE.

.OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...ABS
LONG TERM...ABS
AVIATION...DJN


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