Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 230750

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
350 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

High pressure will provide mainly dry but cool weather through
the weekend.


Surface cold front is moving through northeast Pennsylvania at
3 AM with scattered light showers along the boundary. This
feature will be south of the region by 5 AM ending any
lingering showers. Upper level trough will reside over the
region with a weak surface trough and short wave dropping into
the northern forecast area late today and into the evening.
Included isolated showers during this time period from the
Finger Lakes region into the western Mohawk Valley. Rest of the
area will remain dry with scattered to broken strato cumulus.
Highs will range in the lower to middle 70s with valley areas in
northeast pennsylvania reaching the upper 70s.

Tonight/Thursday...Broad upper level trough will remain over the
area with surface high pressure extending down from the western
Great Lakes. Another weak surface trough will drop south across
the area on Thursday possibly triggering isolated light showers
in central New York. Lows tonight will generally range in the
lower to middle 50s. Highs on Thursday will be in the upper 60s
to lower 70s.


A broad trof remains over the region during this time as high
pressure builds in from the Great Lakes. This will force our
area to be under cool northerly advection and thus marginally
unstable across CNY due to lake temperature differentials and
colder air aloft. Diurnal heating and some weak waves rotating
around the broad trof could trigger widely scattered showers and
sprinkles on Thursday.

Nearly Fall like temps with highs in the 70s and lows in the
50s...possibly even some upper 40s in the colder rural areas.


High pressure builds in for a rather uncharacteristic mainly
rain free extended period of time for these parts. Mainly dry
weather and unseasonably cool conditions should prevail through
the weekend and into early next week within a pattern such as
what is being shown. Several of the medium range models are
trying to float some tropical systems into the Gulf States and
offshore of the SE Atlantic early next week. Although these
appear to be a non-issue for us at this time, the model trends
do bear close monitoring for any changes.


Final surface trough making its way through the terminals early
this morning resulting in occasional MVFR restrictions until
08Z. Rest of TAF period VFR conditions are expected with SCT/BKN
strato-cumulus today around 5K feet diminishing this evening.

Westerly winds 5 to 10 knots increasing during the mid morning
hours to 10-15 knots with gusts 20-25 knots. Light westerly
winds tonight.


Thursday through Sunday...Mainly VFR.




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