Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 181708
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
108 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will yield plenty of sunshine and mild
temperatures over the next few days. Temperatures will rise into
the 70s this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
100 PM update...
Mid-Atlantic high pressure will keep our weather clear and mild
through Thursday night.

A weak frontal system attached to a Canadian cyclone will track
across Northern NY on Thursday. With dry antecedent conditions
in place, precipitation is not anticipated over our forecast
area with the cold front, which is expected to knock
temperatures down a degree or two for late Thursday.

1025 AM update...
Minor updates were made to the near-term temperature grids.
Otherwise, a sunny and mild afternoon is forecast. New grids
will be published by 10:30.

345 am update...
Very quiet weather continues during the near term, through
Thursday afternoon with the main concerns being warmer
temperatures during the day and the potential for patchy valley
fog during the morning hours.

Weak high pressure in place from the Mid Atlantic to the ern
Great Lakes will slowly shift to the e/se today as a dry and
benign upper s/w move across the region...mainly acting to bring
in a layer of thin high clouds. This trough should have minimal
impact on temperatures with highs topping out in the mid to
upper 60s this afternoon.

Not seeing any valley fog form as of 4 am this morning across
central NY or ne PA, due to the amt of mixing in the boundary
layer and the very dry air in place. There is some indication on
satellite of fog to the sw in nw PA, so cannot rule out
completely a few hours of fog in isolated locations this
morning. Similar conditions will unfold tonight and Thursday
morning with modest mixing from a layer of winds aloft and dry
air in place.

Lows tonight will drop into the lower to mid 40s again before a
return to the mid and upper 60s, close to 70 on Thursday
afternoon...under mostly sunny skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

The passage of a weak cold front will knock high temperatures
back a few degrees on Friday, but highs are still expected to
climb into the low- mid 60s, which is above average. High
pressure will become re- established over the region on Friday
night, then gradually drift to the east. Lack of moisture over
the area will mean a dry frontal passage and just some passing
high clouds at times.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A thermal ridge will envelop the area this weekend with 850 mb
temperatures approaching +14C. Surface temperatures will top
out in the mid 70s both Saturday and Sunday. This is
considerably above normal, but there have been times in the past
where days in October have been even warmer. Record
temperatures this weekend are in the lower 80s, and right now
this upcoming warmth looks to fall short of record territory.
Look for plenty of sunshine through the weekend with it
becoming a bit breezy on Sunday.

Clouds will increase late Sunday night in advance of a stronger
frontal system. Showers are forecast from Monday through Tuesday as
the cold front swings through. This will be followed by a turn
back toward more normally cool and wet conditions as an upper
level low begins to settle in for the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions and light winds are forecast through Thursday
afternoon. Boundary layer mixing and low dew points should
preclude fog formation at KELM Thursday morning.

Outlook...

Thursday afternoon to Sunday...Mostly VFR. Possible early
morning restrictions in fog at KELM each day.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DGM/JAB
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DJP


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