Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KBGM 240704
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
304 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY BUT STEADILY EASTWARD TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ON SUNDAY
WITH FAIR AND BREEZY WEATHER EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPR LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLND CST WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AS NEXT S/WV MOVS INTO THE CNTRL GTLAKES TDA.
CLDS THIS MRNG WITH SOME -RA OR DZ ACRS ERN ZONES. CLEARING XPCTD
TO PROGRESS STEADLILY BUT SLOWLY EWD TDA. ATTM THINK THE WRN EDGE
OF THE CLDS WILL BE NEAR THE RT 81 CORRIDOR IN THE 16-18Z TIME
FRAME. WRN CATKILLS PRBLY WON`T SEE BREAKS UNTIL LATE TDA. MAXES
IN THE U50S TO NEAR 60 WRN ZONES WHERE MORE SS WILL OCCUR...L50S
ACRS PORTIONS OF THE SRN CATSKILLS WHERE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST
LONGEST. NW WINDS GNRLY 10-20 KTS.

WE`LL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES TNGT BEFORE CLDS INCREASE
IN ADVANCE OF THE NXT S/WV LATE TNGT DUE TO WAA AND WEAK ISEN
LIFT. MINS GNRLY FROM THE U30 TO L40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
VARYING AMTS OF CLDS ON SATURDAY DUE TO MRNG WAA...THEN SOME
IMPRVMNT PSBL IN THE AFTN BEFORE MORE CLDS ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY
AS THE CDFNT APRCHS. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FNT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE L60S ACRS MANY AREAS. CHC POPS LATE IN DAY FOR
-SHRA FROM STEUBEN INTO ONEIDA COUNTY...WITH CHC POPS MIGRATING
SEWD ON SAT EVNG TO COVER MUCH OF CNTRL NY. GOOD DYNAMICS WITH
THIS SYSTEM BUT NOT ALOT OF MSTR. WEAK LAKE INFLUENCE COMBINED
WITH ANOTHER S/WV KEEPS CHC POPS ACRS FAR NRN ZONES ON SUNDAY INTO
SUN EVNG WHERE CLDS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT...WITH PC SKIES AND DRY
WEATHER ELSEWHERE. BLUSTERY NW WINDS XPCTD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
315 PM EDT UPDATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND
IT`S ATTENDANT SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL TO THE
NORTH OF NEW YORK. SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FROPA...
HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN CWA. THIS IS DUE TO CAA AND THE FETCH OVER THE LAKE
RESULTING IN LAKE EFFECT ENHANCED SHOWERS.

THE WEATHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE QUIET AS WEAK RIDDING
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RISING INTO
THE MID TO UPPR 60S. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE
SEASONAL NORM WHICH WILL AID TO THE NICE FALL WE HAVE HAD SO FAR.
WEDNESDAY FALL WEATHER WILL RETURN AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. THE NICE WEATHER MAY EXTEND FURTHER
INTO THE WEEK AS EACH GUIDANCE RUN HINTS THAT THE OVERALL SYSTEM WILL
PROPAGATE EAST SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NOW JUST EAST OF CAPE COD AND LOSING
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. WE ARE ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF CLOUD
COVER CURRENTLY...WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS...BUT THOSE WILL ACTUALLY
IMPROVE BETWEEN 06Z-10Z AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND ERODES IT. BY
10Z KBGM-KITH SHOULD BE DONE WITH IFR...KAVP-KELM SHOULD BE ABOVE
FUEL ALT REQ LEVEL...AND KSYR-KRME CIG SHOULD IMPROVE FROM MVFR
TO VFR. REMAINDER OF CLOUDS WILL BE QUICK TO SCATTER OUT THIS
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS VERY DRY AIR MASS AND HIGH PRESSURE
TAKE OVER. NW WINDS 7-10 KTS WITH GUSTS 15-19 KTS
/MAINLY DAYTIME/...WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT-SUN...SPOTTY -SHRA WITH SAT EVE FRONT...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIAL POST FRONTAL MVFR CIG INTO SUNDAY FOR NY TERMINALS.

SUN NGT THROUGH TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...MDP






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.