Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 271836
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
236 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIT AND MISS SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL DOT CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA INTO THIS EVENING...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER...AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. A STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST AND BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS TO OUR REGION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS ISLD SHRA AND SPRINKLES ACROSS SWRN NY INTO NE PA AND
THE CATSKILLS. THIS ACTVY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL PV
LOBE WORKING SOUTH ACRS NY INTO PA. THIS PRECIP SHUD EXIT THESE
AREAS BY EARLY EVENING. AFTER THIS WAVE THERE IS A PERSISTENT
N-NWRLY FLOW OF FAIRLY MOIST AIR ADVECTING S ACRS NY AND NRN PA
THRU TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT THE MODELS INDICATE A
LOW-LEVEL JET AT 850 MB MOVG SOUTH ACRS ERN NY AND ERN PA WITH
ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. EVEN THOUGH ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
THERE WAS SOME SUBSC AT MID-LEVELS...THERE WAS ENUF LIFTG FROM THE
LL CONVERGENCE COMBINED W/ WEAK LL INSTABILITY AND UPSLOPING TO
TRIGGER A FEW MORE SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE
EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT ACVTY SHUD WANE AS JET WEAKENS AND THE
SUBSDC DROPS TO LOWER LEVELS. SKIES SHUD REMAIN CLOUDY ALL NIGHT
THOUGH.

FOR TUESDAY...PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER
AN INVERSION BTWN 850 MB AND 800 MB SO WE EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER WITH MAINLY OVC IN THE MORNING AND BREAKS DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE STRG INSOLATION OF LATE APRIL. HENCE WE HAVE
LOWERED MAXES A TAD FROM GUIDC TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE CLOUDINESS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR TUESDAY NGT...IT LOOKS LIKE SKIES WILL FINALLY CLEAR WITH STRG
SUBSC THAT REACHES DOWN TO 900 MB AS PER NAM...GFS AND SREF MODEL
SOUNDINGS. HENCE HAVE SKIES BECOMING EITHER MO CLR OR PC.

THEN FOR WEDNESDAY...WK RDGING WILL BE ACRS THE REGION WITH FAIR
WEATHER AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A RUN AT 70
DEGREES IN OUR VALLEYS...ESP IN NE PA.

FOR WEDNESDAY NGT...CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS SOUTH ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE VCNTY OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z THU.
THE SREF MEAN KEEPS THIS LOW AS AN UPPER TROUGH FARTHER N OVER
THE ERN LAKES. THE NAM ALSO HAS A CLOSED LOW ACRS THE ERN LAKES BY
12Z THU. THE 12Z EURO AND 12Z GFS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT HAVE THE
LOW FARTHER SOUTH. BASED ON THE EURO AND GFS NO PRECIP REACHES NE
PA OR C NY B4 12Z THU. THE SREF AND NAM WUD SUGGEST MAYBE A FEW
HUNDRETHS INTO NE PA/SC NY. FOR NOW GOING WITH DRY FORECAST LIKE
PREVIOUS SHIFT AND THE 12Z EURO/GFS.

FOR THURSDAY...ALL SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS INDICATE SOME LIGHT QPF
ACRS C NY AND NE PA. THE SREF HAS THE MOST GIVEN THAT THE MEAN
FIELDS DON/T CLOSE OFF THE 500 MB LOW AS FAR S AS THE OTHER
MODELS. THE SREF HAS THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE ERN OH. SO FOR
GRIDS...I HAVE SLGHT CHC IN THE MORNING ON THU IN NE PA/SC NY AND
CHC POPS BY AFTERNOON SAME AREAS WITH SLGHT CHC ALONG THE LAKE
ONTARIO PLAIN FARTHER N IN AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE TRACKING TOO FAR S FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IN ANY OF
OUR FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GFS AND EURO ARE SLOWLY COMING INTO AGREEMENT ON THE CLSD LOW AND
DVLPG CSTL SYSTEM IN THE LONG TERM...WITH THE GFS TRENDING TWRD
THE EURO. LONG WV PTRN IS SIMILAR WITH FLAT RDGG INTO THE UPR MID
WEST. DFRNCS CONT TO STEM FROM THE HANDLING OF A NRN STREAM WV
DROPPING INTO THE EAST CST TROF...AND IT/S INTERACTIONS WITH A
STRONG SRN STREAM SYSTEM. EURO CONTS TO KEEP A SEPARATE AND
DOMINANT SRN STREAM STORM MVG OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST...KEEPING
A WEAK TROF TO THE NORTH...WHILE THE GFS WANTS TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN
THE NRN WV AND CAPTURE THE SRN WV RESULTING IN A DEEP SYSTEM OFF
THE CST AND A CLSD UPR LOW OVER WRN NY. GFS SOLN WLD LIKELY
PRODUCE A COLDER AND WETTER SCENARIO...PERHAPS SOME SNOW...FOR THE
FCST AREA. EURO WLD CONT TO KEEP THE AREA BLO NRML...BUT MUCH LGTR
AND ALL LIQUID ON THE PCPN.

WITH THE GFS/S TENDENCY TO CREATE BOGUS DEEP STORMS IN THE LONG
TERM...WILL CONT TO FOLLOW THE EURO SOLN AND KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS
WITH BLO NRML TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE XTNDD PD. THIS ALSO ALLOWS FOR
A CONTD GRADUAL IMPRVMT IN THE WX INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH SOME LGT PCPN CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH TODAY AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT DROP SOUTHWARD AS WE REMAIN IN
A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WE WILL REMAIN IN A
NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH AROUND 00Z TONIGHT. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD KEEP ALL SITES FOR THE MOST PART AT VFR. THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF PERIOD THIS MORNING THAT SOME SITES MAY SEE HIGH END MVFR
UNTIL MIXING STARTS TO TAKE PLACE. ONCE THIS OCCURS ALL MVFR CIGS
WILL LIFT TO VFR.

TONIGHT THE FLOW PATTERN WILL CHANCE TO A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
THIS PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE FOR KITH AND KBGM TO SEE LOW END MVFR
AND POSSIBLY IFR CIGS.

WINDS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WILL BECOME GUSTY AND REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL FALL BELOW 12 KNOTS
AFTER SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE - THU...MAINLY VFR.

FRI...POSSIBLY MVFR-IFR RESTRICTIONS WITH RAIN AND BR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...KAH


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