Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 012254
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
554 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 543 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.
HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH CIN TO PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FROM CU FIELD THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.
CAPE REMAINS HIGH BUT SHEAR IS DECREASING. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
THUNDER THROUGH 7 PM AS A FEW CU REMAIN OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF DICKEY/LAMOURE COUNTIES.

TO THE NORTHWEST...A LINE OF CU HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BUT DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING...ESPECIALLY
RIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MUCH DRIED DEWPOINTS OVER
THE FAR NORTHWEST AND INTO NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. COULD STILL BE
SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HERE LATER THIS EVENING AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS IS COVERED
IN THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH A MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH CENTRAL...AND INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1920 UTC CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
DEVELOPING CUMULUS FIELD BETWEEN JAMESTOWN...STEELE AND EDGELEY.
THE 13-18 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS HAVE ALL DEPICTED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION FOR THIS AREA BY 21 UTC IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY ML CAPE AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40
KTS. WITH A SHORTWAVE EVIDENT JUST UPSTREAM ON WATER
VAPOR...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS INCREASING ALONG WITH THE THREAT
FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS...AND HAVE THUS ADDED SEVERE WORDING TO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE THREAT TO QUICKLY EXIT INTO
THE GRAND FORKS CWA BY 00 UTC.

LATER THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT WILL PROPAGATE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...YIELDING A COOLER BUT STILL
SEASONABLE SUNDAY FOR EARLY AUGUST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS. DEEP UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SUNDAY WILL PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY COOL IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN MATERIALIZES MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN OUR
FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL ALLOWING SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST INITIALLY...UNTIL LATER IN THE
WEEK WHEN A CLOSED MID LEVEL CROSSES THE ALBERTA ROCKIES AND MOVES
INTO NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES DO NOT RECOVER MUCH FROM
EARLY IN THE WEEK...AND LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY
AUGUST WED-FRI (70S TO LOW 80S).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 543 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH KISN AROUND 00Z...AND THROUGH KMOT
AND KDIK AROUND 04Z SATURDAY EVENING...REACHING KJMS AROUND 09Z.
EXPECT A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY AT ALL TAF SITES BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH


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