000
FXUS63 KBIS 170037
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
737 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 737 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

MID LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER EARLY THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA WITH THE MEAN FLOW OF THE TROUGH. MUCAPE OF 500 J/KG OVER
MY NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL SO WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN GO DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

NEAR TERM HR MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH AN AREA OF LOW
STRATUS PUSHING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA LATER THIS EVENING...SPREADING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT.
INCREASED SKY COVER AND ALSO WILL MENTION FOG WITH DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS NEARING ZERO. BEST CHANCES FOR FOG WILL BE OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

REMNANTS OF UPPER LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE
REGION KEEPING SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL
THIS EVENING AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE EXPECT THE WINDS TO
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. WITH THE SURFACE LOW POSITIONED TO
THE EAST ON MONDAY...SOME PRESSURE GRADIENT LEFT IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY...ENOUGH FOR 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS ACROSS THE VALLEY
MONDAY. LOWS TONIGHT 50 TO 55. HIGHS MONDAY UPPER 60S NORTH TO MID
70S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM SUN JUN 16 2013

NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED WITH A
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY ESTABLISHING
ITSELF WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR MOST FIELDS. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A POTENTIAL SHIFT OF THE AXIS TO THE EAST THURSDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH WOULD YIELD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SUPPORTS NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH THE FORECAST TRANSITION TO FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES POTENTIALLY EJECTING OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL LOW. WHILE IT IS STILL EARLY...SEVERE
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS GULF MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO BE TRANSPORTED INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 737 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

MAIN HAZARDS TO AVIATION INCLUDE MVFR CEILINGS...ISOLATED EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS. WINDS SHOULD TAPER OFF BY 03Z THIS
EVENING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN SOUTHWEST MANITOBA IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA SUNDAY EVENING. BECAUSE TSRA WILL BE ISOLATED...LEFT OUT OF
THE TAF AND JUST MENTIONED VCSH. CLOUDS FROM REGINA TO ESTEVAN
SASKATCHEWAN CURRENTLY SHOWING UP AROUND 1500-2000 AGL...SO
TRACKED MVFR CEILINGS TO KMOT THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP FROM KMOT-KJMS OVERNIGHT...AND PERHAPS KISN AND KBIS.
PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE NORTH MAINLY FOR KMOT. VFR EXPECTED
FOR KDIK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...NH