Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 280738
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
238 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Stratus across the north and into portions of central North Dakota
this morning, followed by showers and thunderstorms developing
west in the afternoon moving into central ND late afternoon into
the evening highlight the short term period.

The latest fog/stratus loop and surface observations show a wide
swath of stratus north through portions of central North Dakota
early this morning. Where the stratus has lowered enough to reach
ground level, patchy fog is being reported with visibilities
mainly between 3 and 6 miles. Have followed the HRRR and RAP13
for initialization and sky forecast. Low level northeast winds
continue to advect in the lower clouds from southern Canada. A
good proxy for the southern most extent should be near and along a
line from Dickinson into Bismarck and Jamestown. These clouds will
slowly lift through the morning with an overall mostly cloudy sky
dominating.

The water vapor imagery shows our next pair of shortwaves, one
located near Phillips, Montana, and the second scooting through
the Idaho panhandle. These shortwaves and an associated surface
cold front will be the catalyst for shower and thunderstorm
initiation in the west between 18z and 21z today, then shifting
toward central North Dakota between 00z and 06z Sunday. Most
unstable cape across the west this afternoon on the order of
between 500 and 1000 j/kg, and 0-6km bulk shear remains weak
between 20 and 25kt. Cape quickly fades between 03z and 06z as the
precipiation shifts into central North Dakota.

The far southern James River Valley will get clipped by a few
showers or thunderstorms through the morning, which are emanating
around an upper low in northeast Nebraska. Current local and
regional radar shows isolated showers in LaMoure and Dickey
counties.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Main highlight is the severe thunderstorm potential Monday, mainly
over far southwest into portions of south central North Dakota.
SPC continues to advertise a slight risk in this area.

Preceding the potential severe weather will be a dry and pleasant
Sunday with highs in the 70s. A mid level transitory ridge slides
across western and central North Dakota and will keep the area dry
until 00z Monday. Instability increases Sunday night with a chance
of showers and thunderstorms possibly developing on the heels of a
weak to moderate low level southerly jet in southwest and into
south central North Dakota.

Then, a potent closed upper low which is currently over western
British Columbia, advances into northeast Montana Monday
afternoon. A leading shortwave is forecast to produce showers and
thunderstorms Monday afternoon through Monday night. Model
continuity in advertising a high cape and shear environment
results in higher confidence for severe weather.

With the slow movement of the upper low into western North Dakota
Tuesday, another round of showers and thunderstorms, possibly
severe appear to gain momentum again across southern North Dakota.
The upper low finally gets pushed into the southern James River
Valley Tuesday night with drier air nudging from west to east.

Wednesday afternoon through Friday will be under a drier northwest
flow. It is possible that a couple shortwaves embedded within the
flow could create the potential for some showers, but at this
point, areal coverage for any measurable precipitation is scarce.
It looks dry with a warming trend into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Ifr cigs along with intermittent mvfr vsbys in fog at KMOT/KISN
will spread south into KBIS/KJMS between 10z-12z Saturday.
Ceilings are expected to deteriorate to lifr at KMOT by 12z.
Thereafter, improvement to mvfr will occur between 16z and 20z
Saturday. -Shra and vcts expected at KISN/KDIK between 20z and 23Z
Saturday before scooting into the central terminals 00z-06z
Sunday. The showers and thunderstorms are forecast to weaken as
they move into central North Dakota Saturday evening, thus enough
uncertainty at KMOT/KBIS/KJMS to not mention any precipitation at
this time.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...KS



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