Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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915
FXUS63 KBIS 282120
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
320 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 309 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

Current surface analysis places low over central and eastern
Montana with weak ridge over central and eastern North Dakota.
Upper level analysis places weak trough sliding through
central/eastern Montana with some light snow starting to develop.

For the rest of this afternoon into tonight...aforementioned
light snow over Montana will slide over the area from west to
east. Most snow should remain mainly over the northern 2/3rds of
the area with accumulations of possibly an inch or two.

On Wednesday...aforementioned snow will exit the area by mid-day,
though the next short wave will be right behind, pushing into far
western areas in the afternoon, into central areas in the evening.
Again, accumulations of an inch or two are possible, primarily
over central portions of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 309 PM CST Tue
Feb 28 2017

Train of perpetual short waves continue into the area on Thursday,
with another wave sliding through Thursday night into early
Friday bringing snow chances. Changes do come to the area, though,
on Friday as a ridge starts building into the area bringing a
warming in temperatures. This will remain into the weekend, though
locations over north central North Dakota may not warm quite as much
where a denser snowpack remains. A few weak waves move through
during the weekend into early next week bringing an occasional
chance for rain or snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 309 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

IFR ceilings at KDIK expected to become VFR before 00z...then return
to MVFR and IFR ceilings after 06z. MVFR ceilings at KISN expected
to remain MVFR through the TAF period, with some -SN mainly from 00z-
06z. MVFR at KMOT/KBIS should improve to VFR later this afternoon,
then return to MVFR this evening, with IFR at KMOT in ceilings and
visibility with SN- and fog. VFR at KJMS to become MVFR ceilings
around 03z and IFR around 10z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JV



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