Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 200632
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
132 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

STILL SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS EAST...ALONG WITH A FEW OBSERVING
SITES REPORTING LIGHT RAIN OR UNKNOWN PRECIP. THUS OPTED TO
MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW THROUGH 12Z. LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MY
EAST SLOWLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST...ALTHOUGH A REINFORCED AREA
OF LOW CLOUDS MOVING QUICKLY SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
AND SHOULD PROCEED INTO CENTRAL ND ALONG TO EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
THROUGH 10-14Z BEFORE QUICKLY ERODING WEST TO EAST.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND CONTINUE TO
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. UPDATED SKY
COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS. DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS
UNDER CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS PROBABLY
WONT DROP OFF COMPLETELY BUT SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL. NOT
SURE IF CLOUDS WILL COMPLETELY CLEAR THE EASTERN CWA SO NO
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CHANGES HERE. RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

MAIN UPDATE EARLY THIS EVENING WAS TO BUMP UP SKY COVER TO BROKEN
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN VFR LAYER AROUND 7-9KFT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND DIMINISHING TO A SCATTERED LAYER ACROSS
THE WEST. RAP/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LITTLE INVERSION
HERE WITH MOISTURE UNDERNEATH AND IS SUPPORTED BY 00Z SOUNDING.
HAVE SLOWED THE CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIS EVENING. SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AND HAVE LIMITED SHOWER MENTION TO ISOLATED
FROM THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR EASTWARD AND DISSIPATING FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 502 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

QUICK UPDATED THIS AFTERNOON TO REMOVE MENTION OF SHOWERS WEST AND
THUNDER CENTRAL AND WEST. SHOWERS HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED ACROSS
THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA WITH DIMINISHING CLOUDS EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED IN
INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE CENTRAL WITH NO LIGHTNING CG STRIKES
INDICATED YET. WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON THE WANE...WILL REMOVE
THUNDER CENTRAL AND GO WITH JUST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.

OTHERWISE NO CHANGES EXCEPT TO UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER
ELEMENTS. WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY TO WINDY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IN WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS MINNESOTA. HAVE HAD MANY
REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL UP TO PEA SIZE WITH THESE SHOWERS...AND HAVE
MAINTAINED AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION WITH LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION IN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW A DIURNAL PATTERN OF FADING WITH THE
APPROACH OF SUNSET. REGARDING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY...SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF US.
HOWEVER...NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CURVED JET
AND BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS COULD SPARK SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY. QUIET AND COOL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT. VFR CEILINGS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT
WITH MAINLY SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND HIGH RES MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LOBE OF MOISTURE
DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS AND THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER
TONIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS. WILL MENTION AT KMOT-KJMS. WINDS WILL
PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS WEST AND POSSIBLY
OVER 35 KNOTS CENTRAL AND EAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

DESPITE COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...A DRY AND
WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA MONDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WEST OF NORTH DAKOTA HIGHWAY 3
WILL FALL TO AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35
MPH. TO THE EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA HIGHWAY 3 ACROSS THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS NEAR 30 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED...WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH. GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT GREEN UP OF
VEGETATION...RAPID FIRE SPREAD IS EXPECTED WITH ANY FIRE START.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 10 PM CDT /9
PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-
040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...NH
FIRE WEATHER...AYD





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