Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 280405

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1005 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017


Issued at 1005 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Forecast through tonight mainly on track. A few areas where the
sky is clear and low level humidity is low have dropped
temperature wise to below forecast trends, and this was adjusted.
Sky cover remains tricky but overall still expect an increase in
clouds northwest and eventually into some areas of the north

Issued at 630 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Embedded S/WV impulse within west-southwesterly flow continues to
move out of central ND and more into northern MN. Associated light
snow will thus gradually end now through 03Z as forcing
dissipates. Mainly dry for the rest of this evening.

Sky cover will be tricky with clearing northwest pushing south and
east into central ND right now. Models do not depict this well.
With time as our low level flow becomes more southeasterly over my
western counties, expect low clouds to move back into the west as
winds undergo this transition. Already seeing this occur. Sky
cover north central will be more uncertain.

Temperatures dropping below guidance/forecast so adjusted those
as well based on latest observations, then trended through 12Z
with the latest CONSSHORT/HRRR guidance. This resulting in
lowering a few degrees some areas.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Departing shortwave and resultant weakening forcing/large scale
ascent across portions of north central ND will result in the
ongoing steady light snow to wane the rest of the afternoon.
Additional snowfall accumulations will remain at less than one
inch. Mostly cloudy and dry elsewhere.

Latest water vapor imagery shows our next shortwave trough now
ejecting out of southwest Idaho. This shortwave is forecast to
reach northern South Dakota 12z-18z Tuesday. Strongest forcing
remains in South Dakota, with fringes of it scooting into far
southwest and also into the southern James River Valley per SREF
and ECMWF. Gridded forecast has a slight chance/chc of snow and
will continue with this idea.

Another shortwave which is currently located along the British
Columbia coast will quickly arrive into northeast by 18z Tuesday.
This will support a surface low pressure and associated clipper
type cold front, spreading another chance of light snow mainly
northwest through north central Tuesday afternoon, then into south
central ND Tuesday evening/night. Expect up to one inch of
snowfall as the clipper slides through. Highs Tuesday will range
from 15F in the Turtle Mountains to around 30F southwest.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 251 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

The aforementioned clipper exits the southern James River Valley
Tuesday morning. Brisk westerly winds with gusts to 30 mph
develops across the southwest Wednesday afternoon. The active
northwest upper flow will continue with the next clipper and an
associated 100kt jet streak enhancing lift, will provide for
another round of light snow west Wednesday afternoon, then into
central ND Wednesday night. Another half to one inch will be
possible with this clipper. A chance of snow continues in the
southern James River Valley Thursday morning before ending as the
clipper departs. A brief break Thursday afternoon as the upper
level flow transitions from northwesterly to zonal. The zonal flow
will allow for a moderating trend, as high temperatures warm
through the 30s and into the mid 40s across western/central ND
Friday through Monday. It remains active through the rest of the
extended period. Another quick moving shortwave slides through
Friday with a slight chance of pops mainly north. Additional
shortwaves move through Sunday and Monday resulting in a chance of
snow and rain. Saturday right now looks dry.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)

Issued at 630 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

MVFR ceilings remain over southern terminals (KDIK-KBIS-KJMS)
with momentarily clearing northwest and north central (KISN-KMOT).
With time northern terminals will see low clouds return with
widespread MVFR-IFR cigs by 12Z. KMOT is more uncertain versus
KISN. Afterwards, a slow improvement is forecast central and
east later Tuesday morning. Areas of low clouds may persist
through much of Tuesday west.




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