Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 110050
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
650 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT INTO
TODAY HAS MOVED WELL SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH
FROM MANITOBA INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA...WHILE A
LEE SIDE TROUGH IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CANADIAN
ROCKIES.

THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT AND
COMBINED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. UNTIL THEN...T/TD SPREAD REMAIN
PRETTY HIGH ACROSS THE WEST WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS OVER ALL BUT
THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE. THUS THINK THE RISK OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS EVENING IS MINIMAL. AS WE HEAD INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN AND DRY LAYERS ALOFT...CONDUCIVE TO DRIZZLE QUICKLY MOISTEN
UP. THUS HAVE ALSO REMOVED THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WILL KEEP A MENTION OF FOG AS SURFACE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS
WE MOVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW/BOUNDARY STRETCHING THROUGH
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA WHILE HIGH
REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
BRINGING FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW
LINGERS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN UPPER JET STREAK WORKS ITS WAY OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY
LINGER OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED JET CONTINUES ON ITS WAY. CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA...WHILE OVER THE SOUTHWEST LATEST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME FOG WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
MAY DEVELOP. LATER TONIGHT BROAD SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION
RESULTING IN AN ELONGATED AREA OF MODEST LIFT OVER WESTERN PARTS
OF NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE...EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP AND
GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTHERLY.

FOR THURSDAY...BROAD AREA OF MODEST LIFT SPREADS EASTERLY INTO
CENTRAL PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SNOW
SPREADING FROM WEST CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
STATE WHERE A BROAD SWATH OF 1 TO 3 INCHES MAY FALL. OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST...WARMER CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO PERIODS OF RAIN
DEVELOPING BY MID-DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING
SEVERAL WAVES ACROSS THE REGION.

THE FIRST WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY. AS THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE SHIFTS WEST...SNOW WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED...GENERALLY AROUND ONE INCH.

THE NEXT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT NORTH DAKOTA BEGINNING FRIDAY
NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO THE REGION THAN PREVIOUS SYSTEMS
AS THIS WAVE WILL HAVE MORE OF A PACIFIC COMPONENT TO IT. WHILE
FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR TOO STRONG WITH THIS WAVE...PERSISTENT
LIGHT SNOW WITH BROAD SCALE LIFT OVER A 36 HOUR PERIOD COULD
BRING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INTO THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE. MODELS ARE JUST
BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM...SO DETAILS WILL BE FURTHER REFINED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AND AMOUNTS/PRECIP TYPE COULD CHANGE QUITE A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

WIDESPREAD MVFR AND SCATTERED IFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST TO
START THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NIGHT...EXPECT
IFR CEILINGS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...INCLUDING AT KISN...KDIK
AND KBIS. THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING (12Z-18Z)
THEN LIFTING TO MVFR AFTER 18Z THURSDAY. MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT MOVE
INTO KISN AND KDIK APPROX 12-18Z THURSDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH


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