Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 240740

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
140 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017


Issued at 140 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Models have trended slower with peak pressure rises moving into
western North Dakota early this morning. NAM/GFS bring the
stronger pressure rises into northwest ND 10-12Z, then south-
southeast across western and central ND through 18Z. Strongest
winds will definitely be in the morning across my area, and
thinking is the wind advisory should be able to disappear early
to mid afternoon Friday most if not all areas. Thus main update
for this morning was to trend slower on the arrival of the
stronger winds. Will leave wind headlines as is as see no point at
this hour for any changes. Other update was to POPs based on
latest radar imagery.

UPDATE Issued at 929 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Current forecast looks ok. Winds are slowly increasing and the
mixing is maintaining and even helping temperatures to rise a bit
this evening. Overall the minimum temperatures in the 40s to
upper 30s look ok. Wind advisory will begin in the west at 09Z.

UPDATE Issued at 629 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Current forecast trending ok with mainly clear skies this
evening. No significant changes to previous forecast.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 308 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

A windy Friday highlights the short term forecast.

Multiple All-Time Thanksgiving Day records have been broken or
tied today across western and central North Dakota as of 330 pm

Location.....Observed...November 23 Record..Thanksgiving All Time

Dickinson........69...........63 in 1984........65 in 1998
Williston........67...........56 in 2011........56 in 2002
Bismarck.........74...........62 in 2011........62 in 2002
Minot............62...........55 in 1942........57 in 2011
Jamestown........56...........59 in 1942........56 in 2011

A cold front will propagate across western and central North
Dakota tonight. Strong winds will develop behind the front late
tonight and continue into Friday across western and central North
Dakota. The strongest winds are expected in the 10-18 UTC
timeframe when isallobaric forcing is greatest with a 6mb/3hr
pressure rise behind the front. The 12 UTC NAM/GFS Bufr and 19
UTC RAP soundings depict around 45-50kts to mix at 850 mb. Thus,
widespread wind gusts in excess of 40 kts are expected across
western and most of central North Dakota, and a Wind Advisory has
been issued for most areas. Would not be surprised to see a couple
gusts in excess of 50kts immediately behind the cold front.

Scattered rain showers are expected tonight into Friday morning
with the passage of the front. With steep mid level lapse rates
and a warmer overall thermal profile, a thunderstorm or two may be

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 308 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Above normal temperatures highlight the extended forecast.

After a relative cool down for Friday and Saturday in the wake of
the cold front, although temperatures will still be above normal,
another very warm day is possible on Sunday. The 12 UTC NAEFS
850mb mean temperatures climb towards their 99th percentiles once
again on Sunday. Thus, well above normal temperatures in the 50s
and maybe the 60s are possible for much of western and central
North Dakota on Sunday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)

Issued at 1230 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Chances for light rain will spread from west to east across the
state through the early morning hours; dissipating around 15Z for
western and central areas. Also through the early morning hours,
northwest winds will increase and remain strong through the


Wind Advisory from 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ to 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/
Friday for NDZ003-011-012-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-

Wind Advisory from 3 AM CST /2 AM MST/ to 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/
Friday for NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.



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