Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 251352
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
852 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 850 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Added a slight chance of snow southwest where Bowman radar shows
some potential for the light precipitation to move into Bowman
and Adams counties. Also added some flurries south central.

UPDATE Issued at 649 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

We increased forecast wind speeds through the day with this update
based on early-day observational trends, bias-corrected MOS output
and forecast soundings from the 06 UTC NAM/GFS and more recent RAP
and HRRR iterations. Those forecast soundings show northeast winds
averaging near 20 kt in the well-mixed surface layer across much
of central ND today. The rest of the forecast remains on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Tuesday will be another cool and cloudy day. Breezy northeast
winds will make it feel rather chilly today with wind chills in
the teens and 20s. An upper level wave will move across South
Dakota this evening. The latest short-term models indicate precipitation
associated with this wave should remain south and east...with
only far southeastern North Dakota seeing any rain/snow. Tonight
will be cold with temperatures falling into the low 20s across
western North Dakota.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Northwest flow continues through the week. This will keep us in a
cool and dry pattern as flow aloft is rather week and the jet
stream remains well south of us. Temperatures will remain well
below normal through the week with readings mainly in the 40s and
low 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 649 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings will prevail today across most of
western and central ND as north to northeast low-level flow stays
in place. Drier air will begin to move into the north during the
day, which will eventually allow ceilings to lift into the VFR
category at KISN and KMOT by this afternoon or evening.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...CJS



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