Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
866
UXUS97 KBOU 150009
SRGBOU
Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder, Colorado
1808 MDT Tuesday, May 14, 2024
This forecast is for Wednesday, May 15, 2024:
If the trigger temperature of 58.1 F/14.5 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Good
Maximum rate of lift........................ 509 ft/min (2.6 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 14064 ft MSL (8777 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 67.0 F/19.9 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 0930 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ 1200 MDT
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Broken/overcast thin middle
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 10574 ft MSL (5287 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Thursday 05/16..... Excellent
Wave Soaring Index............................. Poor
Wave Soaring Index trend (to 1800 MDT)......... No change
Height of stable layer (12-18K ft MSL)......... None
Weak PVA/NVA (through 1800 MDT)................ Weak PVA
Potential height of wave....................... 26967 ft MSL (21680 ft AGL)
Wave soaring outlook for Thursday 05/16........ Poor
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 05:43:59 / 20:07:44 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 14 hr 23 min 45 sec (863 min 45 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:55:51 MDT... 69.33 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 05/15/2024 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 10843 ft MSL (5556 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 9463 ft MSL (4176 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 11396 ft MSL (6109 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... -2.9
K index......................... +17.9
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -53.9 -65.0 240 25 13 1.7 0.9 M M M M M
45000 -51.8 -61.2 245 25 13 -2.6 -1.4 M M M M M
40000 -55.2 -67.4 240 33 17 -2.3 -1.3 M M M M M
38000 -55.1 -67.2 240 38 20 2.0 1.1 M M M M M
36000 -53.9 -65.0 240 45 23 2.0 1.1 M M M M M
34000 -51.9 -61.4 240 50 26 8.1 4.4 M M M M M
32000 -46.5 -51.7 245 51 26 8.1 4.4 M M M M M
30000 -41.6 -42.9 245 50 26 8.3 4.6 34.2 93.5 11.1 M M
29000 -39.1 -38.4 245 49 25 8.3 4.6 33.5 92.3 10.7 M M
28000 -36.6 -33.9 245 48 25 8.3 4.6 33.0 91.5 10.5 M M
27000 -34.1 -29.4 245 47 24 7.5 4.1 32.5 90.6 10.2 M M
26000 -31.9 -25.4 245 44 23 7.5 4.1 31.6 88.8 9.6 M M
25000 -29.6 -21.3 250 42 21 7.5 4.1 30.7 87.3 9.0 M M
24000 -27.4 -17.3 255 40 20 8.0 4.4 30.0 86.0 8.6 M M
23000 -24.9 -12.8 255 38 19 8.3 4.6 29.4 84.9 8.2 M M
22000 -22.4 -8.3 260 36 19 8.3 4.6 28.9 84.0 7.9 M M
21000 -19.9 -3.8 260 34 18 6.9 3.8 28.3 83.0 7.5 M M
20000 -17.9 -0.2 260 31 16 6.8 3.7 27.2 81.0 6.6 M M
19500 -16.9 1.6 260 30 15 6.8 3.7 26.7 80.1 6.2 M M
19000 -15.9 3.4 260 29 15 6.8 3.8 26.2 79.2 5.8 M M
18500 -14.8 5.4 255 27 14 6.6 3.6 25.8 78.4 5.5 M M
18000 -13.9 7.0 255 26 14 6.5 3.6 25.2 77.3 5.0 M M
17500 -12.9 8.8 255 25 13 6.5 3.6 24.6 76.4 4.5 M M
17000 -12.0 10.4 255 24 13 5.7 3.1 24.0 75.2 3.9 M M
16500 -11.2 11.8 255 23 12 5.9 3.2 23.3 74.0 3.3 M M
16000 -10.1 13.8 255 21 11 4.8 2.6 22.2 72.0 2.3 M M
15500 -9.4 15.1 260 20 10 4.7 2.6 21.4 70.5 1.5 M M
15000 -8.6 16.5 265 19 10 7.0 3.8 20.7 69.3 0.9 M M
14500 -7.6 18.3 270 18 9 6.9 3.8 20.2 68.4 0.3 M M
14000 -6.7 19.9 275 18 9 7.0 3.8 19.8 67.6 -0.2 695 3.5
13500 -5.7 21.7 280 18 9 7.0 3.8 19.3 66.8 -0.6 651 3.3
13000 -4.7 23.5 280 18 9 7.5 4.1 18.9 66.0 -1.1 606 3.1
12500 -3.6 25.5 285 18 9 7.7 4.2 18.5 65.4 -1.5 558 2.8
12000 -2.5 27.5 290 19 10 7.8 4.3 18.2 64.8 -1.8 510 2.6
11500 -1.3 29.7 290 18 9 7.8 4.3 17.9 64.2 -2.1 461 2.3
11000 -0.2 31.6 290 18 9 6.6 3.6 17.6 63.7 -2.5 412 2.1
10500 0.6 33.1 295 17 9 6.1 3.4 16.9 62.5 -3.2 373 1.9
10250 1.0 33.8 295 16 8 4.2 2.3 16.6 61.9 -3.5 353 1.8
10000 1.3 34.3 295 16 8 4.7 2.6 16.1 61.0 -4.0 338 1.7
9750 1.8 35.2 295 14 7 7.0 3.8 15.9 60.6 -4.2 316 1.6
9500 2.2 36.0 300 13 7 6.5 3.6 15.6 60.1 -4.5 295 1.5
9250 2.7 36.9 300 12 6 6.1 3.4 15.4 59.7 -4.8 274 1.4
9000 3.1 37.6 305 11 5 5.5 3.0 15.1 59.1 -5.1 254 1.3
8750 3.5 38.3 310 9 5 6.1 3.4 14.7 58.5 -5.5 235 1.2
8500 4.0 39.2 315 8 4 6.5 3.6 14.5 58.1 -5.8 214 1.1
8250 4.4 39.9 325 8 4 6.0 3.3 14.2 57.6 -6.1 193 1.0
8000 4.8 40.6 335 7 3 5.6 3.1 13.9 57.0 -6.4 174 0.9
7750 5.2 41.4 350 6 3 6.4 3.5 13.6 56.5 -6.8 155 0.8
7500 5.6 42.1 360 6 3 6.9 3.8 13.4 56.1 -7.1 134 0.7
7250 6.1 43.0 015 6 3 6.6 3.6 13.2 55.7 -7.4 113 0.6
7000 6.6 43.9 025 5 3 6.8 3.7 12.9 55.3 -7.6 92 0.5
6750 7.0 44.6 040 5 3 5.7 3.1 12.7 54.8 -7.9 71 0.4
6500 7.4 45.3 045 5 3 5.7 3.1 12.3 54.2 -8.3 53 0.3
6250 7.8 46.0 045 4 2 7.1 3.9 12.1 53.8 -8.6 31 0.2
6000 8.3 46.9 050 3 2 7.2 4.0 11.9 53.4 -8.9 8 0.0
5750 8.9 48.0 055 2 1 6.6 3.6 11.7 53.1 -9.1 M M
5500 9.2 48.6 065 1 0 2.7 1.5 11.3 52.4 -9.5 M M
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
05/15/2024 at 0900 MDT | 05/15/2024 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... +383.2 LI... -0.9 | CAPE... +252.8 LI... -0.4
CINH... -8.8 K Index... +13.0 | CINH... -3.7 K Index... +21.2
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -54.3 -65.7 250 25 13 1.2 0.7 | -54.1 -65.4 250 26 13 1.0 0.5
45000 -52.6 -62.7 250 27 14 -0.8 -0.4 | -52.7 -62.9 245 30 15 -0.4 -0.2
40000 -53.5 -64.3 250 36 19 -0.6 -0.4 | -53.0 -63.4 250 34 18 -0.2 -0.1
38000 -53.9 -65.0 250 42 21 -0.7 -0.4 | -53.3 -63.9 250 38 20 -0.8 -0.4
36000 -54.3 -65.7 250 48 25 -0.7 -0.4 | -53.8 -64.8 250 44 23 -0.8 -0.4
34000 -53.7 -64.7 245 53 27 8.6 4.7 | -53.4 -64.1 250 49 25 7.9 4.3
32000 -48.2 -54.8 245 52 27 8.2 4.5 | -48.4 -55.1 250 47 24 7.4 4.0
30000 -43.3 -45.9 245 49 25 8.1 4.4 | -43.8 -46.8 250 44 22 8.3 4.5
29000 -40.9 -41.6 245 47 24 8.1 4.4 | -41.3 -42.3 250 41 21 8.3 4.5
28000 -38.4 -37.1 250 44 23 8.1 4.4 | -38.8 -37.8 255 38 19 8.3 4.5
27000 -36.0 -32.8 250 41 21 8.2 4.5 | -36.4 -33.5 255 35 18 8.2 4.5
26000 -33.5 -28.3 250 39 20 8.2 4.5 | -33.9 -29.0 260 33 17 8.2 4.5
25000 -31.1 -24.0 255 37 19 8.2 4.5 | -31.4 -24.5 260 31 16 8.2 4.5
24000 -28.6 -19.5 255 35 18 8.4 4.6 | -29.0 -20.2 260 30 15 8.4 4.6
23000 -26.1 -15.0 260 34 17 8.6 4.7 | -26.4 -15.5 260 29 15 8.5 4.7
22000 -23.5 -10.3 260 33 17 8.6 4.7 | -23.9 -11.0 265 28 14 8.5 4.7
21000 -21.0 -5.8 260 31 16 7.3 4.0 | -21.4 -6.5 265 27 14 7.5 4.1
20000 -18.8 -1.8 265 29 15 7.3 4.0 | -19.1 -2.4 260 26 13 7.5 4.1
19500 -17.7 0.1 265 27 14 7.3 4.0 | -18.0 -0.4 260 25 13 7.5 4.1
19000 -16.6 2.1 265 26 14 7.3 4.0 | -16.9 1.6 260 25 13 7.6 4.2
18500 -15.5 4.1 265 25 13 6.5 3.6 | -15.8 3.6 260 24 13 6.3 3.5
18000 -14.6 5.7 270 24 12 6.2 3.4 | -15.0 5.0 260 24 12 5.9 3.2
17500 -13.7 7.3 270 22 11 6.2 3.4 | -14.1 6.6 260 23 12 5.8 3.2
17000 -12.4 9.7 270 21 11 6.4 3.5 | -12.9 8.8 265 21 11 5.7 3.1
16500 -11.4 11.5 275 20 10 6.4 3.5 | -12.1 10.2 265 20 10 6.3 3.4
16000 -10.5 13.1 275 19 10 6.6 3.6 | -11.0 12.2 265 20 10 7.9 4.3
15500 -9.5 14.9 280 19 10 6.5 3.6 | -9.9 14.2 270 19 10 7.9 4.3
15000 -8.5 16.7 280 19 10 7.1 3.9 | -8.8 16.2 275 19 10 7.2 4.0
14500 -7.5 18.5 285 19 10 7.1 3.9 | -7.7 18.1 280 19 10 7.3 4.0
14000 -6.5 20.3 285 19 10 6.9 3.8 | -6.7 19.9 285 19 10 7.1 3.9
13500 -5.5 22.1 290 20 10 6.9 3.8 | -5.7 21.7 290 19 10 7.1 3.9
13000 -4.5 23.9 290 20 10 6.7 3.7 | -4.6 23.7 295 19 10 7.3 4.0
12500 -3.5 25.7 295 20 11 6.7 3.7 | -3.6 25.5 300 18 9 7.3 4.0
12000 -2.6 27.3 295 20 11 6.8 3.8 | -2.5 27.5 300 18 9 7.8 4.3
11500 -1.6 29.1 295 20 10 6.9 3.8 | -1.3 29.7 305 17 9 8.0 4.4
11000 -0.6 30.9 295 19 10 7.3 4.0 | -0.2 31.6 310 17 9 6.8 3.8
10500 0.5 32.9 295 18 9 8.5 4.7 | 0.8 33.4 310 16 8 5.3 2.9
10250 1.0 33.8 295 18 9 3.3 1.8 | 1.2 34.2 310 16 8 10.7 5.9
10000 1.1 34.0 295 19 10 3.9 2.1 | 2.2 36.0 315 14 7 11.4 6.2
9750 1.7 35.1 295 17 9 9.5 5.2 | 2.7 36.9 315 13 7 6.4 3.5
9500 2.3 36.1 300 16 8 8.6 4.7 | 3.3 37.9 320 11 6 8.1 4.4
9250 2.9 37.2 300 15 8 6.8 3.7 | 3.8 38.8 320 10 5 6.6 3.6
9000 3.2 37.8 300 15 8 4.6 2.5 | 4.3 39.7 325 9 5 7.5 4.1
8750 3.6 38.5 300 13 7 6.4 3.5 | 4.9 40.8 330 8 4 9.6 5.3
8500 4.1 39.4 300 11 6 7.2 4.0 | 5.6 42.1 330 8 4 9.6 5.3
8250 4.5 40.1 300 9 5 6.3 3.5 | 6.3 43.3 335 7 4 9.2 5.0
8000 4.9 40.8 305 8 4 5.7 3.1 | 6.9 44.4 340 7 4 9.1 5.0
7750 5.3 41.5 305 7 3 6.7 3.7 | 7.7 45.9 345 7 4 10.2 5.6
7500 5.8 42.4 310 5 2 7.1 3.9 | 8.4 47.1 345 7 4 10.3 5.7
7250 6.2 43.2 315 3 2 6.0 3.3 | 9.1 48.4 345 7 4 8.9 4.9
7000 6.6 43.9 310 2 1 4.9 2.7 | 9.8 49.6 345 7 4 8.1 4.4
6750 7.0 44.6 305 2 1 9.3 5.1 | 10.5 50.9 345 7 4 11.4 6.3
6500 7.9 46.2 295 1 0 11.4 6.2 | 11.4 52.5 350 7 3 12.2 6.7
6250 8.6 47.5 000 0 0 9.3 5.1 | 12.2 54.0 350 7 3 10.4 5.7
6000 9.3 48.7 000 0 0 9.0 4.9 | 13.0 55.4 350 7 3 9.8 5.4
5750 9.9 49.8 000 0 0 11.3 6.2 | 13.8 56.8 350 7 3 12.8 7.0
5500 11.1 52.0 000 0 0 19.1 10.5 | 15.1 59.2 350 6 3 24.7 13.5
05/15/2024 at 1500 MDT | 05/15/2024 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +514.4 LI... -2.0 | CAPE... +456.9 LI... -1.7
CINH... 0.0 K Index... +29.5 | CINH... -7.6 K Index... +27.2
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -53.6 -64.5 250 28 15 1.4 0.8 | -53.7 -64.7 260 30 15 1.1 0.6
45000 -51.8 -61.2 250 35 18 -1.8 -1.0 | -52.2 -62.0 260 33 17 -2.6 -1.4
40000 -54.0 -65.2 250 35 18 -1.5 -0.8 | -55.6 -68.1 255 39 20 -2.2 -1.2
38000 -54.1 -65.4 250 37 19 0.7 0.4 | -55.4 -67.7 250 42 21 1.9 1.1
36000 -53.7 -64.7 250 41 21 0.7 0.4 | -54.3 -65.7 245 45 23 1.9 1.1
34000 -52.6 -62.7 250 43 22 7.0 3.8 | -51.9 -61.4 240 48 25 7.1 3.9
32000 -48.0 -54.4 250 42 22 6.8 3.7 | -47.6 -53.7 245 47 24 7.1 3.9
30000 -43.6 -46.5 255 40 21 8.4 4.6 | -43.1 -45.6 245 43 22 8.3 4.5
29000 -41.1 -42.0 255 37 19 8.4 4.6 | -40.7 -41.3 250 40 20 8.3 4.5
28000 -38.5 -37.3 260 35 18 8.4 4.6 | -38.2 -36.8 255 36 19 8.3 4.5
27000 -36.0 -32.8 260 33 17 8.0 4.4 | -35.7 -32.3 255 33 17 8.5 4.7
26000 -33.6 -28.5 260 31 16 8.0 4.4 | -33.1 -27.6 260 30 16 8.5 4.7
25000 -31.2 -24.2 265 30 15 8.0 4.4 | -30.6 -23.1 265 28 14 8.5 4.7
24000 -28.8 -19.8 265 29 15 8.2 4.5 | -28.1 -18.6 265 26 13 8.2 4.5
23000 -26.3 -15.3 265 28 14 8.3 4.6 | -25.7 -14.3 270 25 13 8.0 4.4
22000 -23.8 -10.8 265 27 14 8.3 4.6 | -23.3 -9.9 270 25 13 8.0 4.4
21000 -21.4 -6.5 270 27 14 7.5 4.1 | -20.9 -5.6 270 25 13 7.8 4.3
20000 -19.1 -2.4 265 28 14 7.6 4.2 | -18.6 -1.5 270 25 13 7.8 4.3
19500 -18.0 -0.4 265 28 14 7.7 4.2 | -17.5 0.5 270 25 13 7.8 4.3
19000 -16.9 1.6 265 28 14 7.8 4.3 | -16.3 2.7 265 25 13 7.9 4.3
18500 -15.8 3.6 265 28 15 6.9 3.8 | -15.2 4.6 265 24 13 6.9 3.8
18000 -14.8 5.4 270 28 14 6.7 3.7 | -14.3 6.3 265 24 12 6.6 3.6
17500 -13.9 7.0 270 27 14 6.9 3.8 | -13.3 8.1 265 23 12 6.6 3.6
17000 -12.8 9.0 270 26 14 7.6 4.2 | -11.9 10.6 265 21 11 6.7 3.7
16500 -11.7 10.9 275 25 13 7.6 4.2 | -10.9 12.4 265 20 10 7.4 4.0
16000 -10.6 12.9 275 24 13 7.8 4.3 | -9.7 14.5 265 19 10 8.7 4.8
15500 -9.5 14.9 280 23 12 7.8 4.3 | -8.4 16.9 260 18 10 8.7 4.8
15000 -7.8 18.0 280 21 11 7.8 4.3 | -7.2 19.0 260 17 9 7.5 4.1
14500 -6.7 19.9 285 19 10 7.9 4.3 | -6.1 21.0 255 16 8 7.7 4.2
14000 -5.6 21.9 285 17 9 7.0 3.8 | -5.0 23.0 255 15 8 7.4 4.1
13500 -4.6 23.7 290 14 7 7.1 3.9 | -4.0 24.8 250 14 7 7.5 4.1
13000 -3.6 25.5 300 11 6 6.5 3.5 | -2.9 26.8 250 12 6 5.9 3.3
12500 -2.6 27.3 315 9 4 6.3 3.5 | -2.1 28.2 245 11 6 5.6 3.1
12000 -1.7 28.9 340 7 4 7.5 4.1 | -1.3 29.7 245 9 5 6.1 3.4
11500 -0.5 31.1 355 7 4 7.8 4.3 | -0.4 31.3 255 7 4 6.3 3.5
11000 0.6 33.1 010 8 4 7.8 4.3 | 0.5 32.9 270 5 3 7.1 3.9
10500 1.7 35.1 010 8 4 6.7 3.7 | 1.6 34.9 300 4 2 8.2 4.5
10250 2.3 36.1 010 8 4 12.4 6.8 | 2.1 35.8 320 4 2 3.8 2.1
10000 3.5 38.3 005 8 4 13.7 7.5 | 2.3 36.1 335 4 2 5.1 2.8
9750 4.2 39.6 005 8 4 8.7 4.8 | 2.9 37.2 350 4 2 10.2 5.6
9500 4.9 40.8 005 8 4 10.4 5.7 | 3.6 38.5 360 5 3 9.4 5.2
9250 5.7 42.3 005 8 4 8.6 4.7 | 4.3 39.7 010 6 3 7.6 4.2
9000 6.3 43.3 005 8 4 9.0 5.0 | 4.7 40.5 015 7 4 5.8 3.2
8750 7.1 44.8 005 8 4 10.7 5.9 | 5.2 41.4 015 8 4 7.1 3.9
8500 7.8 46.0 005 8 4 10.4 5.7 | 5.8 42.4 020 10 5 7.5 4.1
8250 8.6 47.5 005 9 4 10.2 5.6 | 6.3 43.3 020 11 6 6.6 3.6
8000 9.4 48.9 005 9 4 10.0 5.5 | 6.8 44.2 025 12 6 5.8 3.2
7750 10.1 50.2 005 9 4 10.4 5.7 | 7.2 45.0 025 13 7 5.8 3.2
7500 10.9 51.6 005 9 4 10.3 5.7 | 7.5 45.5 025 14 7 6.0 3.3
7250 11.7 53.1 005 9 4 9.8 5.4 | 8.0 46.4 025 15 8 8.0 4.4
7000 12.4 54.3 005 9 4 9.5 5.2 | 8.6 47.5 020 15 8 9.2 5.0
6750 13.1 55.6 360 9 4 10.5 5.8 | 9.2 48.6 020 15 7 9.2 5.0
6500 13.9 57.0 360 9 4 11.0 6.0 | 9.9 49.8 020 14 7 10.1 5.6
6250 14.7 58.5 360 9 4 10.9 6.0 | 10.7 51.3 020 14 7 10.8 5.9
6000 15.5 59.9 360 9 4 10.2 5.6 | 11.5 52.7 020 14 7 10.6 5.8
5750 16.3 61.3 360 8 4 12.7 7.0 | 12.3 54.1 020 13 7 11.0 6.0
5500 17.6 63.7 360 8 4 23.4 12.8 | 13.2 55.8 020 13 6 15.0 8.2
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC). It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.
The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near the old Stapleton
Airport site in Denver, Colorado at
North Latitude: 39 deg 46 min 5.016 sec
West Longitude: 104 deg 52 min 9.984 sec
Elevation: 5285 feet (1611 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page. To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
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