Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 200602
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
202 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW BEHIND
A COLD FRONT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT WILL CLEAR SOME TOMORROW
AND ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A STRETCH
OF FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC POSSIBLY TOUCHING OFF A FEW LIGHT
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
OTHERWISE CONTINUING COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT TEMPS FALLING
FURTHER TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS THE REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN A
COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE...AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT
OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EASTWARD FROM THE
PLAINS BETWEEN THESE TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING MODEST
WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH. TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA AVERAGING
AROUND +2C WILL BRING A BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST BY MODELS TO PASS ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING
MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS AND MOISTURE REMAINING JUST TO OUR SOUTH.
EVEN IF THE MOISTURE DOES MAKE IT UP INTO NEW YORK STATE...IT WILL
ENCOUNTER A VERY DRY AIRMASS. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING JUST AN
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS BUT WITH LITTLE OTHER IMPACT TO THE
REGION. THIS CLOUDINESS COUPLED WITH THE PERSISTENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LIMIT DECOUPLING AND RADIATIONAL COOLING...NEGATING
ANY FROST THREAT IN SPITE OF READINGS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
THE UPPER 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH
COUNTRY...WHILE ELSEWHERE LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S.

THURSDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS
THE LOWER LAKES. STILL LOOKS LIKE A COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY WITH MOST
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

ENERGY CURRENTLY OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST OF GREENLAND WILL
EVENTUALLY DROP INTO QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SUGGESTS IT WILL MOVE
THROUGH DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
POINT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY BEHIND THE
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND A COLD DRY AIRMASS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD FROST AND POSSIBLE FREEZE CONDITIONS...
ESPECIALLY FOR INTERIOR SECTIONS AWAY FROM THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...
KEEPING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER A COLD START TO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH 60S ON SATURDAY GIVING WAY TO 70S SUNDAY AS
THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST...PAVING THE WAY FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT THAT WILL USHER IN A RETURN TO WARMER AND MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERAL MVFR TO LOW VFR CIGS WILL LARGELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE LIFTING AND SCATTERING OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO NEW YORK STATE. THEREAFTER...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALBEIT WITH SOME INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO OUR
SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL INCREASE ON LAKE ONTARIO BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH JUST MOVED ACROSS THE LAKE. ON LAKE ERIE...THE W-NW FLOW
WILL CAUSE WAVES TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES
OUTLINED BELOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES LATER WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
LOW WIND AND WAVE ACTION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS


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