Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 232332
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
732 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Conditions will remain dry and increasingly warm across Western and
North-Central New York through this weekend as high pressure will
dominate the region. A cold front crossing the region Sunday night
into Monday will bring the next chance for rain followed by cooler
temperatures next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Look for extensive clearing tonight behind a shortwave as a deep
dry airmass also sinks south across the lakes and into New York.
This will allow for decent radiational cooling, dropping low
temperatures into the 50s. The clear skies will persist at least
through Friday as high pressure builds overhead the Lower Great
Lakes. 850mb temps rising to around +13C should yield highs in the
upper 70s to lower 80s, with slightly cooler readings in the low
70s along the Lake Ontario shoreline.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Mother Nature has guaranteed us very warm and dry weather for the
bulk of the weekend...as a progressive low amplitude ridge will
cross the region. Sfc high pressure that will be anchored off Nova
Scotia will circulate increasingly warm and humid air northwards
in the process...so that temperatures will reach into the mid to
upper 80s on Saturday and within a degree of so of 90 for Sunday.

By the end of the weekend...the table will be set for some
thunderstorms as an unstable airmass will be lying in wait for an
approaching cold front. This front will cross our region in `pieces`
with the first boundary coming through Sunday night. PWAT values
over the western counties will surge to nearly 2 inches immediately
ahead of this first boundary...so there will be somewhat of a risk
for heavier than normal downpours.

While Monday could be somewhat unsettled with the `real` cold front
moving across the region...the plume of moisture that would have
supported more robust convection the previous night will be exiting
across New England. By the afternoon...there may not even be enough
moisture to support convection over the western counties. Will thus
taper off the chc pops from west to east during the course of the
day.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
After several days of uncomfortably warm weather...it will be much
more pleasant in the wake of the cold front for Tuesday and
Wednesday. H85 temps in the single digits C will only support max
temps in the 70s...which will be close to...if not a couple degrees
below typical late june levels.

While a secondary cold front will present the low probability for a
shower or thunderstorm on Tuesday...the next expansive sfc high
will result in fair weather through mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period with
clearing skies this evening as high pressure builds over the region.
The clear skies will then persist through the balance of the TAF
period.

Outlook...

Friday Night through Sunday...VFR.
Sunday Night through Monday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Tranquil conditions will persist on the lakes through the coming
weekend as high pressure builds overhead the region. Southerly winds
will freshen Sunday night ahead of an approaching cold front,
allowing waves to build to around 3 feet across northeastern
portions of the lake. Winds will veer westerly behind the front
Monday, resulting in a light to moderate chop on the eastern ends of
the lakes next week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA/WOOD
NEAR TERM...TMA/WOOD
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...TMA/WOOD
MARINE...WOOD



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