Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 201732
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1232 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND
WITH DRY WEATHER LASTING INTO MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. A STRONG AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND
PRODUCE RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WINDS
AND A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING EXTENSIVE STRATUS
HANGING VERY TOUGH IN MOST AREAS FROM LAKE ONTARIO SOUTHWARD TO THE
PA STATE LINE. A FEW HOLES CONTINUE AROUND THE BUF METRO AREA AND
WITH SUNSHINE JUST UPSTREAM ACROSS THE NIAGARA PENINSULA...THERE MAY
BE SOME TREND TOWARDS MORE SUNSHINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NIAGARA AND NORTHERN ERIE COUNTIES. OTHERWISE EXPECT STRATUS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY
WITH A DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW OUT OF QUEBEC HELPING TO KEEP STRATUS AT
BAY THERE. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF
WESTERN NY WITH MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
FROM QUEBEC INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ABOVE
THE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL STRATUS LAYER SO EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO CROSS
THE AREA DRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY LITTLE ADVECTIVE PUSH
WILL DO LITTLE TO HELP CLEAN OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH WILL
REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WITH THIS IN
MIND EXPECT MOST AREAS TO KEEP THE STRATUS AND GRAY SKIES TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL START OFF CLEAR THIS
EVENING BUT A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY PUSH STRATUS NORTHWARD LATER
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH MID 20S ON THE
LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY AND LOWER 20S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH
TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING BEFORE STRATUS INCREASES THERE.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 30S AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN NY
WITH STILL SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE FARTHER TO THE EAST
ON MONDAY AND THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
DEEPEN. THIS BRING A RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH AND AN INCREASE IN
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING MONDAY
BUT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BRING A WARMING WITH HIGH TEMPS
ON MONDAY IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE LOWER
40S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE RISK OF PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF
MONDAY NIGHT AS A NARROW AND SHALLOW SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND KEEPS THE
CHANCE OF PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL EYES THEN FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A TRAVEL DISRUPTING WINTER
STORM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES LEADING UP TO
AND FOLLOWING THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY. THE OVERALL THEME WILL BE A
COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT SHIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY...MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES. ON CHRISTMAS EVE
WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING RAIN
WITH MILD TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS IS LIKELY ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT
THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AS TEMPERATURES COOL ALONG WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE.

FINER DETAILS...ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE 40S THEN REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR RISE TUESDAY NIGHT
REACHING NEAR 50 DEGREES BY CHRISTMAS EVE. 90 PERCENT OF NAEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE ABOVE CLIMO PWATS SO THERE COULD BE SOME
PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL DURING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET OUT IN FRONT MAY BRING
SOME STRONG CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN WINDS BUT THERE IS ALSO A DOWNSLOPE
WIND THREAT AS WINDS FORCED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND TUG HILL DESCEND DOWN TO THE LAKE SHORES. FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE IN THE WEST THE SOURCE REGION OF
THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC BASED AND NOT ARCTIC BASED SO THIS
LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING A REDUCED THREAT OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS DEVELOPING AS 850MB TEMPS SHOULD ONLY DROP TO
AROUND -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH HOWEVER FOR AN OVERALL
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW WITH A LAKE ENHANCEMENT PENDING AVAILABLE
POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS IS POSSIBLE ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITHIN
THE COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HELPING TO MIX 850MB WINDS OF 40-50KTS DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS LOW LEVEL JET
SHOWING 50-60KTS. THERE IS STILL LACK OF FINER DETAILS IN EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE WEATHER IMPACTS DURING THE WEEK OF
CHRISTMAS. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUALLY BE UPDATED AS WE GET CLOSER
AND THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS WILL WANT TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
THESE FORECAST UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. FURTHER OUT WE WILL BE WATCHING NEXT WEEKEND FOR
ANOTHER POSSIBLE GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERSISTENT STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE
18Z TAF CYCLE. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED
BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS FROM LAKE ONTARIO SOUTHWARD TO THE PA STATE
LINE. SOME CLEARING WILL TRY TO WORK INTO KBUF-KIAG FOR A FEW HOURS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT THIS SHOULD FILL
IN AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL BE MAINLY MVFR IN THE STRATUS
WITH A FEW AREAS OF IFR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER. IFR MAY BE MORE FAVORED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE CLEAR
SKIES WILL DOMINATE TODAY. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW LOW STRATUS
TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION TONIGHT AND TOWARDS KART
ON SUNDAY WITH MVFR CIGS BECOMING MORE COMMON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH VERY LIGHT
WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
SOME ON MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TUESDAY WHEN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE FURTHER.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON BOTH LAKES...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS
COOLER AIR PUSHES BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK





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