Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 251821
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
121 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...LESSENING THE SNOW MELT...AND REDUCING THE FLOODING THREAT
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED DRIZZLE OR
FLURRIES EAST OF THE LAKES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A NOR`EASTER WILL
LIFT ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW
WILL RETURN FOR LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WITH A SURFACE REFLECTION IS CROSSING THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY VEER AROUND TO WESTERLY AS THE FEATURE
PASSES THIS EVENING.

SHALLOW MOISTURE NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES IN THE PRESENCE OF
850MB TEMPS OF -6C TO -8C HAS DEVELOPED SOME WEAK LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WHICH RADARS ARE NOW SHOWING OVER AND NORTHEAST OF THE
LAKES THIS EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS
FROM BUFKIT PROFILES OF ABOUT 5KFT WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE BELOW 5KFT
IS WELL DISPLACED BELOW THE PRIME -12C TO -18C DENDRITIC SNOW SO
THIS SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP PRECIP AS EITHER LIGHT DRIZZLE /DUE TO
THE LAKE OF ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION IN THE CLOUD/ OR SNOW FLURRIES.
QPF AND LIFT SUPPORT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

CONCERNING FLOODING...AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE AREA
WHICH SAW LAKE EFFECT SNOW MELT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. SEE
BUFFLWBUF FOR ASSOCIATED IMPACTS. THE TWO CREEKS THAT ARE UNDER
FLOOD WARNINGS ARE THE ELLICOTT AND TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA.
ELLICOTT CREEK IS EXPECTED TO CREST THIS EVENING...WHILE TONAWANDA
CREEK SHOULD CREST JUST ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER ACROSS OUR REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. 850MB TEMPS
WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY COOL WITH MOISTURE REMAINING SHALLOW SO STILL
EXPECTING THE SAME CHANCES OF LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED DRIZZLE/FLURRIES.
WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH LIFTING NORTH OF THE LOWER LAKES. SOME LIMITED FREEZING
DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WITH LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS WARMER
THAN -10C AND SURFACE TEMPS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN FOCUS ACROSS THE REGION AS WE MOVE INTO THE BUSY TRAVEL DAY
BEFORE THANKSGIVING WILL BE ON THE COASTAL LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING
UP THE EAST COAST. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND EASTWARD ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW AND AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK AS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE ON THE VERY FRINGE OF THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
COMBINED WITH MARGINALLY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT OF AROUND -9C
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME FLURRIES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TO
START THE DAY. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THAN
PREVIOUS PACKAGES...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE APPROACHING
LOW...AND THIS SHOULD SERVE TO SEED THE SHALLOW CLOUD LAYER BELOW IN
THE LOW LEVELS...ALLOWING FOR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS OPPOSED
TO THE FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. EVEN WITH THIS
SEEDING...WITH EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS OF 5KFT OR LESS...DO NOT EXPECT
TO SEE MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES OR PERHAPS A LIGHT DUSTING SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION TO SPEAK OF ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK AND THE
BUFFALO METRO. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ON THANKSGIVING DAY
HOLIDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY AND A
WEAK CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
CLIPPER WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF RAISING EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ABOVE
10KFT ON LAKE ERIE AND WESTERLY FLOW WILL FOCUS LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS
ON THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. HOWEVER A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE ABOVE
700MB WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL RATES/TOTALS WITH ONLY 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WITH ONLY A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE AS THE NOMINAL SYNOPTIC LIFT
PROVIDED BY THE CLIPPER WILL BE ACROSS WNY AND LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW ON
LAKE ONTARIO LOOKS TO BE TOO WEAK AND POORLY ALIGNED VERTICALLY TO
POSE MUCH OF A LAKE-EFFECT THREAT AT THIS POINT. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO
RUN WITH A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING
THANKSGIVING DAY WITH LOW TO MID 20S THURSDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER FILTERS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES OF LATE WILL GIVE WAY TO A ZONAL PATTERN AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND. LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
GIVE WAY TO A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS BY SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONGER
CLIPPER. MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES THE LOW TRACK WELL NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA AND ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WE
MAY SEE ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS CHANGE BACK OVER TO SNOW AS
SUB-FREEZING AIR FILTERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A SEASONABLY CHILLY DAY WITH PERHAPS SOME
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ON NORTHERLY FLOW...TAPERING OFF AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 18Z MVFR AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION. A
SOUTHWEST WIND WITHIN COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS DEVELOPED A BAND OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY...WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY THIS EARLY
AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWER. AS THE COLD AIR
DEEPENS AND WINDS VEER TO WEST/NORTHWESTERLY ACTIVITY WILL CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW...AND POSSIBLY FREEZING DRIZZLE. OFF LAKE ERIE THIS
CHANGE SHOULD HAPPEN AFTER THE BAND CROSSES THE KIAG/KBUF
AIRFIELDS...BUT OFF LAKE ONTARIO IT MAY CLIP THE AIRFIELD WITH A
WINTRY MIX BEFORE DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT.

THIS LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATER OVERNIGHT AS WIND
SHEER INCREASES WITH THE NEARING OF A COASTAL STORM ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE. A SHORT-LIVED NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO
LATER OVERNIGHT MAY BRING SOME MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE KROC AIRFIELD
LATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

THIS SYNOPTIC STORM SYSTEM WILL LARGELY REMAIN EAST OF OUR
AREA...WITH POSSIBLY A FEW FLAKES FOUND ACROSS THE KROC/KART
AIRFIELDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR
SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE NOW TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC THIS MORNING. WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HAVE SLACKENED BELOW GALE FORCE SO GALES
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DROPPED. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT
OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND NIAGARA/ST LAWRENCE RIVER TODAY AND
ENDING TONIGHT.

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE
LOWER LAKES WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS A
DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER SHIFTS NORTH ALONG THE COAST. WESTERLIES WILL
FRESHEN ON THE LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THIS
STRONG COASTAL STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...SMITH/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...SMITH







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