National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS61 KBUF 160249
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1049 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
THE REGION WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST INTO TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER WEATHER
RETURN BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH ONLY AN INCREASE IN MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS...ALREADY SEEN SPREADING ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO EVOLVE UPSTREAM
EARLY TONIGHT AND PROPAGATE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED
ADVECTION OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR WILL SUPPORT A FAIR AMOUNT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. WIND PROFILES ALOFT ARE ALSO MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE TRENDS EARLY TONIGHT BUT SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES IN OUR AREA APPEAR LOW.

IN ANY EVENT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE PASSING MID LEVEL WAVE WILL SPAWN SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA. LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING TO 40 PLUS KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEARING 1.75 INCHES...SOME 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. THE COMBINATION OF GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD MORNING AND THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
SUNDAY.

HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PRECIP TOTALS ACROSS WESTERN NY DURING
THE MORNING. 00Z QPF FROM NAM/GFS/HRRR ETC SHOWING MORE NORTHWARD
TRACK OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE NEARLY
DUE EASTWARD TRACK OF THE UPSTREAM PRECIP. AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST
ACROSS WESTERN NY RANGING FROM ABOUT A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER TO SIX TENTHS TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
IN THE NORTHERN NIAGARA FRONTIER. NOT CONCERNED WITH RENEWED HYDRO
ISSUES WITH THESE AMOUNTS WITH CREEKS AND STREAMS ON THEIR WAY DOWN
AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO ACCOMMODATE THIS RAINFALL. HYDRO CONCERNS
WOULD LIKELY ARISE IF AMOUNTS WERE TO EXCEED AN INCH WHICH DOES NOT
LOOK LIKELY UNLESS MORE ELEVATED CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY NIGHT...ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
LINGERING BEHIND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE SHOULD WIND DOWN DURING THE
EVENING...LEADING TO A GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET SECOND HALF OF THE
NIGHT. WITH INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER IN PLACE
FROM SUNDAY`S CONVECTION AND LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE OF OUR
AIRMASS EXPECTED...WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE RELATIVELY MILD LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER
AND NORTH COUNTRY TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE RETURN OF DIURNAL
HEATING AND THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
SAGGING IN OUR DIRECTION FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. HAVE THUS
CONTINUED WITH BROADBRUSH CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WITH
THE CONVECTION THEN EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. A FEW LEFTOVER
SHOWERS COULD LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO TUESDAY GIVEN THE
CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THIS AREA TO THE FRONT AND ONE FINAL WEAK WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLING EAST ALONG IT...OTHERWISE TUESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER LAKES.
THIS HIGH WILL THEN CONTINUE TO RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND BENIGN WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT
THE PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT MONDAY TO BE A SEASONABLY WARM DAY AS
PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND 850 MB T`S OF +10C TO +13C LEAD TO FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH A FEW OF OUR NORMAL
WARM SPOTS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES POSSIBLY REACHING
OR BREAKING THE 80 DEGREE MARK. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...A TREND BACK TOWARD COOLER WEATHER WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR
THE REST OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK TO WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF 70 FOR TUESDAY...AND LOWS FALLING OFF TO THE MID-UPPER
40S INLAND/LOWER 50S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...LINGERING BROAD/RELATIVELY FLAT TROUGHING
ALOFT WILL GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS OUR
REGION...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TO A POSITION OFF THE EAST
COAST BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...THIS
EVOLUTION IN THE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY MODERATING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY
THURSDAY...THEN TO AT LEAST A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MORE SPECIFICALLY...DAYTIME HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
70 ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM BACK TO AT LEAST THE LOWER 80S IN MOST
PLACES BY SATURDAY...AND POSSIBLY EVEN WARMER THAN THAT SHOULD THE
THE GFS/ECMWF-ADVERTISED 850 MB TEMPS OF +15C TO +18C ACTUALLY COME
TO FRUITION.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES...EXPECT THE WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY
TIME FRAME TO BE MAINLY DRY COURTESY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
RIDGE...THOUGH A WEAK SYSTEM DROPPING THROUGH CENTRAL ONTARIO/QUEBEC
IN THE STILL-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY/NORTH COUNTRY. BY
SATURDAY...INCREASING RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE
SHOULD PUMP SOMEWHAT MORE HUMID AIR BACK INTO OUR REGION...AND THIS
COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE GENERAL CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
ONLY AREAS OF CIRRUS ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A STORM SYSTEM
CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
WESTERN NEW YORK ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND MVFR CIGS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST FROM 09Z ONWARDS...WITH
THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM 12Z TO 20Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF CONVECTION...FROM 20Z ONWARD.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT MAY APPROACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES BRINGING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA/WCH
MARINE...TMA