Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 120852
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
452 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SUNSHINE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS. THIS FRONT WILL USHER
IN THE WARMEST AIR OF THE SPRING SO FAR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES SOARING WELL INTO THE 70S. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INITIALLY. THE RAIN MAY END AS
A PERIOD OF WET SNOW ON TUESDAY AS MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A STRONG YET MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE NORTH COUNTRY
AROUND DAYBREAK WITH A FEW PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUD MOVING AWAY
FROM THE REGION. THIS FEATURE PRODUCED A FEW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN
LAKE ONTARIO EARLIER...BUT THESE HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED AS DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO WIN OUT.

11-3.9 MICRON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD FOG
SPREADING NORTH OUT OF PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS MAY CONTINUE TO CREEP NORTHWARD FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS AND ENVELOPE MUCH OF CHAU/CATT/ALLEG COUNTIES. WITH
THIS IN MIND...WILL RUN A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA THROUGH
MID MORNING. THIS IS RADIATIONAL FOG AND DIURNAL IN NATURE...SO IT
WILL BURN OFF WITH THE ONSET OF DAYTIME MIXING.

THE OTHER POTENTIAL FOG AREA WILL BE OVER AND JUST EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE. AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS THIS MORNING...
MODESTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
LAKE ERIE ICE COVER AND MAY PRODUCE A PLUME OF FOG OVER THE LAKE. IF
THIS DEVELOPS...THE WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW WOULD BRING IT INTO THE ERIE
COUNTY SHORELINE AND EVENTUALLY THE CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY SHORELINE
LATER TODAY. THE AIRMASS IS DRIER THAN YESTERDAY MORNING...SO
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT GREAT. THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE
PICKING UP ON THIS POSSIBILITY HOWEVER...DEVELOPING AN AREA OF LOW
CIGS AND VSBY OVER AND JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE. WITH THIS IN
MIND...HAVE ADDED AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE FOR
TODAY...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

OTHER THAN THE FOG...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC TODAY BUT STILL HAVE ENOUGH CONTROL ACROSS OUR REGION TO
PROVIDE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE DAY. A BATCH OF
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL ENTER WESTERN NY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
THEN THIN AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. THICKER MID
LEVEL CLOUD WILL ARRIVE AT THE END OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TO THE NORTH COUNTRY AS MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RAPIDLY INCREASES.

850MB TEMPS RISE TO AROUND +7C ACROSS THE WEST AND +4C ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHS OF 55 TO 60
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. LAKE BREEZES WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND KEEP
ALL THE LAKESHORE AREAS COOLER. THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE BREEZE IS
FORECAST TO SPREAD FAR INLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY RESULT
IN A DROP IN TEMPERATURES ALL THE WAY SOUTH TO THE NYS THRUWAY LATE
IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A DIGGING TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL FORCE WARM ADVECTION TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. A WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
OUR REGION...WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ENHANCED BY A 50+ KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THE LOWEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
NEAR THE PA STATE LINE...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES OVER LAKE ONTARIO
AND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
ARE MAXIMIZED. SOME MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP WITH MUCAPE OF AROUND 300-500J/KG...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING AN
ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORM.

THE DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE...WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN MANY AREAS FROM
SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY WESTWARD...WITH LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THESE LOWS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING LATE. SOME AREAS FROM THE LAKE ERIE SHORE AND
NIAGARA FRONTIER EAST TO ROCHESTER MAY REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S BY
8AM SUNDAY AIDED BY INCREASING SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN STORY DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND THE SHOT OF
ACCOMPANYING ARCTIC AIR. AS WE OPEN THE PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING AN
ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM TEXAS TO ONTARIO WILL BE
FOUND ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SHARPENING BAROCLINIC GRADIENT. A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ASSOCIATED
WITH SATURDAY NIGHT/S WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY STILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF LIFTING OUT OF THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT
OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE A DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY FOR THE BULK
OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK AS THE AREA WILL BE FIRMLY
PLANTED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. WITH
850MB TEMPS SURGING TO +12C AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ALLOWING FOR A
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...MID 70S SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINABLE FOR
MOST AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN ERIE AND JEFFERSON
COUNTY SHORELINES WHERE THE CHILLY LAKE WATERS WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY. ON THE OTHER HAND...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS GUSTING UPWARDS OF 30KTS BY THE AFTERNOON THANKS TO THAT
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...DOWNSLOPING COULD PUSH READINGS INTO THE
UPPER 70S ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTH OF THE FINGER LAKES.

THIS VERY WARM AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 50S AND LOWS ONLY DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER 50S...IT WILL FEEL VERY MUCH LIKE SUMMER OUTSIDE.
THIS WARMTH WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN
CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 70S BY EARLY AFTERNOON EVEN AS THE STRONG
COLD FRONT MARKING THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THIS WARM MOIST AIRMASS AND
THE ARCTIC AIR OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST APPROACHES THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THE FRONT WILL BE ON OUR
DOORSTEP. WHILE THE AREA WILL BE INCREASINGLY WARM AND UNSTABLE
THROUGH THE DAY...A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE A RESTRICTING
FACTOR ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY CONVECTION UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF
DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY EVENING PWATS ACROSS
WESTERN NY SHOULD SURGE ABOVE AN INCH LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN NY. WITH
DECENT DYNAMICS AND WIND FIELDS ALOFT...SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
FEATURE STRONG WINDS MONDAY EVENING.

THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG WITH THE
ADDED ENHANCEMENT OF A SERIES OF SURFACE WAVES RIPPLING NORTHWARD
ALONG THE RELATIVELY SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SOLID ONE-
HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE. THE COMBINATION OF THIS
RAINFALL AND THE CONSIDERABLE WARMING/THAWING BEFOREHAND ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WILL GENERATE THE FLOODING RISK ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HYDROLOGICAL PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
BELOW...BUT THAT`S NOT ALL. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TAKE ON ANAFRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS
AS WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT RIDES UP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PROPER...AND WITH SUCH COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF SNOWFALL AS THE BACK EDGE OF
THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ONWARDS. A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS ARCTIC AIR
SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE 30S ON
TUESDAY. READINGS WILL TUMBLE EVEN LOWER...INTO THE LOWER 20S WITH
UPPER TEENS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE
NORTH COUNTRY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER AN UNSETTLED WEEKEND AND START TO THE WEEK...MUCH QUIETER
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE COMING WEEK AS A
BROAD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ARCTIC
AIR WILL HAVE THE UPPER HAND ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY`S
STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST AREAS.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OUT INTO THE GULF OF
SAINT LAWRENCE AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGGING OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEGINS TO CARVE OUT A TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND EVENTUALLY THE NATION`S MID-SECTION. WHILE THERE IS STILL
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS
TROUGH...EITHER WAY THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL END UP UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF DOWNSTREAM RIDGING WITH MERIDIONAL FLOW THAT WILL
GRADUALLY ADVECT WARMER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE 40S THURSDAY AND THE 50S FRIDAY.
THIS RIDGING WILL ALSO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY THROUGH FRIDAY...HOWEVER THAT WILL DEPEND ON THE
SPEED WITH WHICH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
MOVES EASTWARD...AN ISSUE STILL IN CONTENTION AMONG THE MODELS AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA FOR THE 06Z TAF
CYCLE. A STRONG YET MOISTURE STARVED MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
CROSS THE REGION QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH ABOUT 10Z AND MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES OVER AND NEAR LAKE ONTARIO OUT OF A MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK. OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA JUST EXPECT
SOME PATCHY CIRRUS.

WIDESPREAD FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND THE CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SLOWLY NORTHWARD
INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WITH WIDESPREAD IFR...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE PA STATE LINE. THIS FOG SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING SATURDAY.
FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVER LAKE ERIE LATE TONIGHT...THEN SPREAD
TOWARDS KBUF AND KIAG FOR A FEW HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. THE AIRMASS
IS DRIER THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY MORNING...SO CONFIDENCE IS ONLY
MODERATE AT BEST THAT THIS WILL OCCUR. FOR NOW WILL JUST INCLUDE A
BRIEF TEMPO GROUP WITH IFR UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE APPARENT. IF THIS
DOES DEVELOP...IT MAY PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY BEFORE MIXING OUT.

OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF SATURDAY EXPECT VFR WITH PASSING THIN
CIRRUS. STRONGER WARM ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS A
LOW LEVEL JET CROSSES THE LOWER LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
MONDAY...DETERIORATION TO MVFR LATE WITH RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING FROM WEST
TO EAST.
WEDNESDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH A CHANCE FOR LOCAL IFR FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING. THE WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE GRADIENT
AND STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TODAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE ALONG ALL
THE LAKESHORES. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES TONIGHT WITH EASTERLY WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING
LATE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS GROWING FOR AREAS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION WHERE A SNOWPACK REMAINS IN PLACE. SOME OF THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS STILL HAVE A SNOW PACK OF OVER A FOOT. WATER LEVELS
HAVE STEADILY RISEN WITH EVEN SOME OF THE LARGER MAIN STEM RIVERS
IN OR APPROACHING ACTION STAGE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE SNOW
MELTING PROCESS AND CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.
ANY FLOODING ISSUES THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE ONLY MINOR AND CONFINED
TO THE SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS. THIS WOULD BE MORE LIKELY
SUNDAY WHEN DEWPOINTS RISE AND INCREASE THE RATE OF SNOWMELT.

BIGGER HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY TO MID PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM WORKS ACROSS THE REGION. A DEEP
MOISTURE PLUME RUNNING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF AN INCH. THIS RAINFALL
COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW MELT WILL BRING A MORE SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING POTENTIAL NOT ONLY ON THE SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS...
BUT THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AS WELL. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE
BLACK RIVER TO REACH MINOR TO MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY.

A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL...PRIMARILY
FOR STREAMS AND RIVERS WHICH HAVE SOURCE REGIONS ON THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU AND THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     FOR NYZ006>008.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ019>021.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
HYDROLOGY...TMA/HITCHCOCK





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