Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 222351
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
751 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST...THE INFLUX
OF INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR WILL LEAD TO A WARM AND MUGGY
NIGHT...THEN TO SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. COOLER AND FAIR WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THIS COLD FRONT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND LOW
PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN A VERY
WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER MUGGY NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS GEORGIAN BAY EARLY THIS
EVENING...WHICH IS A BIT AHEAD OF MOST GUIDANCE...HOWEVER THIS
AREA IS LIKELY TO STAY TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND WEAKEN
BEFORE IT REACHES OUR REGION. OUTFLOW FROM THIS CONVECTION MAY
SPARK SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT...AS
CONVECTION STARTS TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

NAM12 AND RGEM WERE MODELS OF CHOICE FOR TIMING OF THE
PRECIP...MOST OF THE RAINFALL WILL HAVE CROSSED THE FORECAST AREA
BEFORE NOONTIME...FOLLOWED SHORTLY THEREAFTER BY THE COLD FRONT.
HIGH DEWPOINTS AND 8KFT TO 10KFT DEPTH OF MOISTURE WILL YIELD
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.6 TO 1.8 INCH AND THE
GREATEST OMEGA IS WITHIN THE LOWER MOIST LAYER... INDICATING
EXCLUSIVE WARM RAIN PROCESS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DOWNPOURS.
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
MUCH DRIER AIR BY THE END OF THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPS MAY RECOVER A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE MORNING WITH
READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING TO THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH THE LAST FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
TAPERING OFF BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD
IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LINGERING MOISTURE
FROM RAIN EARLIER WEDNESDAY MAY BRING SOME PATCHY FOG LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTY
OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S EXCEPT ALONG THE LAKESHORES
AND IN URBAN AREAS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS NEW YORK
BRINGING VERY COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY A FEW DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE. (HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S) DIURNAL
CUMULUS WILL SPROUT UP THURSDAY AS OVERNIGHT MOISTURE MIXES OUT
ALONG WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE. THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BRING RIVER VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. ON FRIDAY MORE IN THE WAY OF DRYING
WILL KEEP MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SOME HIGH CIRRUS WORKING IN FROM
THE WEST AHEAD OF A CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SYSTEM. OVERALL VERY
PLEASANT WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK AN AMPLIFYING EAST
COAST 500MB TROUGH FORECASTED BY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WILL BRING
BACK A THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHILE KEEPING
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IS PRESENT FOR SATURDAYS FORECAST WITH MODELS NOT IN
ALIGNMENT ON THE INITIAL UPPER LOW DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
THE 12Z GFS IS FASTEST BRINGING IN SHOWERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE OTHER MODELS DELAY THIS. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY ACROSS WNY BUT OVER ALL FEEL THE DAY WILL END UP
BEING DRY.

BETTER AGREEMENT DEVELOPS BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHERE MODELS SHIFT
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WITH EACH OF THESE
BRINGING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE FEATURED THE
HIGHEST POPS ON MONDAY WHERE THE BEST MODEL ALIGNMENT IS FOUND IN
THE 500MB PATTERN WITH THE TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
TUESDAY THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE OVER NEW YORK WITH A
CHANCE OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPS LIMITED TO THE LOW TO MID 70S NEXT WEEK WHERE WE
TYPICALLY WOULD EXPECT NEAR 80.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES GIVING
WAY TO MID-HIGH CLOUDS. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FOG OR HAZE LATE TONIGHT...BUT
WINDS SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL. PRECIPITATION PRECEDING A COLD
FRONT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY RESULT IN MVFR
CEILINGS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER BEHIND
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE NW FLOW...HOWEVER
SOME GUIDANCE IS DRIER SO HAVE LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN CIGS FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...PATCHY MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...SAVE FOR IFR/MVFR
IN PATCHY SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG LATER EACH NIGHT/EARLY EACH
MORNING.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN THE LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE LAKES AND RIVERS THIS EVENING. THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIP EASTWARD AND ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT TONIGHT...AND BECOME S-SW. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON LAKE ERIE LATE TONIGHT IN THE SW
FLOW. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WAVES 2 TO 3 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON BOTH LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. WINDS WILL LESSEN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/WCH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS/WCH







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