Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 280612
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
212 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
PRODUCING CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. THE FRONT
WILL BE AN EXTENSION OF A DEEP STORM SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...ONE THAT WILL HELP TO CIRCULATE RECORD WARMTH ACROSS OUR
REGION ON TUESDAY. THE WARM WEATHER WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED THOUGH
AS A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING COLD FRONT WILL PLOW ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...WITH NOTABLY COLDER WEATHER
FOLLOWING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME POSSIBLE ISOLATED
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE AREA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT THAT IS IN THE PROCESS
OF LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MOST CONCENTRATED
ACTIVITY IS FOUND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN FINGER
LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WHILE ACTIVITY IS MUCH MORE SCATTERED
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...WITH THE SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS IT DOES SO...THOUGH SCATTERED
ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY HANG ON INTO THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. OTHERWISE...THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN STEADILY WARMING TEMPS...WITH READINGS
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...TO THE
MID AND UPPER 50S ACROSS FINGER LAKES...INTO THE 60S ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN NEW YORK...AND EVEN TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE LAKE ERIE
SHORELINE.

TUESDAY... TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR RECORD VALUES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...AS WE WILL BE POSITIONED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY SEEN OVER THE MID-WEST. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY SURGE TO AROUND +12C TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND COUPLED WITH A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO A
VERY WARM DAY. IN FACT...LOCATIONS NEAR ROCHESTER MAY EVEN SURGE
INTO THE UPPER 70S BRIEFLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE WIND DIRECTION
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE TERRAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR TO TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BUT IT APPEAR THERE WILL SEVERAL HOURS OF ONLY HIGH CLOUDS
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

MODELS ARE FORECASTING AN AREA OF MODEST CAPE ALONG THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO
SEE A LINE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
SUITE IS SUGGESTING THAT LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ON BUFFALO/S DOORSTEP BY AROUND 21Z...AND ADVANCE QUICKLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH ROUGHLY 02Z. OF COURSE WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS LINE...AS MODELS MAY
YET TREND FASTER OR SLOWER. IF THERE IS ANY MAIN THREAT WITH THIS
CONVECTIVE LINE...IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN THE FIRST TRUE
TASTE OF WINTER FOR THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN TUESDAY AS A MATURE LOW
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LIFTS INTO QUEBEC. A STRONG COLD
FRONT TRAILING THIS LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING WESTERN
NEW YORK AS WE OPEN THE PERIOD TUESDAY EVENING. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
FORCING SUPPORTING THIS FRONT ALONG WITH STRONG UNI-DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR SUGGEST A STRONG LIKELIHOOD OF A CONVECTIVE LINE OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY EVENING...IN SPITE
OF A LACK OF CONVECTIVE BUOYANCY. SHOULD THIS LINE DEVELOP...THERE
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF 40-50KTS.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...LOOK FOR A PERIOD OF CLEARING
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED DRY SLOT MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. THE CLEARING WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 40S THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND LAKE
EFFECT CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS EAST OF THE LAKES. IN SPITE OF THE COLD
AIR ALOFT AND BRISK WESTERLY FLOW OFF OF THE LAKES...THE LIKELIHOOD
FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LOW THANKS TO AN ABUNDANCE
OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR THAT WILL KEEP THE INVERSION AROUND 5KFT.
NONETHELESS...THIS PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD
AS COOL AIR AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS THE AREA WILL
REMAIN IN THE BASE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 40S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S NEAR THE LAKE SHORES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE TRUE TASTE OF WINTER WILL COME THIS WEEKEND AS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY.
MODELS ARE COMING INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT ON THIS SHARP INTRUSION OF
ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO
OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW AND THE
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM`S ARRIVAL...DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...SUGGEST
THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN IN THE FORM OF
RAIN...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR WET SNOW TO DEVELOP ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS TEMPERATURES DROP
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE COLD NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY AS HIGHS WILL ONLY RUN IN THE
30S. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FOCUS ACTIVITY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER...HOWEVER ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE STRONGLY LIMITED BY A LACK OF
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH ITS ATTENDANT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALSO
RECEDING NORTHEASTWARD AND TENDING TO DIMINISH OVER TIME. CIGS WILL
LARGELY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MID LEVELS AND IN THE VFR RANGE.
MEANWHILE...THE PRESENCE OF A 35-40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET OVER FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK AND MUCH LIGHTER WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS FROM ROUGHLY
KROC-KDSV WESTWARD.

AFTER THE WARM FRONT CLEARS OUR AREA TUESDAY MORNING...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS UNDER SCATTERED-BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS TO DOMINATE FROM LATE
TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
INCREASINGLY BREEZY TO WINDY SURFACE CONDITIONS AS DAYTIME HEATING
HELPS TO MIX DOWN STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT TO THE SURFACE.

LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION ACCOMPANIED BY A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THIS REMAINS
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS PARTICULAR TIME. THIS
STATED...ANY STORM OF STRONGER SHOWER WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN...AND SHOULD
LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD IN MOST AREAS AS STRONG
DRY SLOTTING/SUBSIDENCE AND COOLER AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THE
ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE...
WHERE SOME LIMITED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP
VERY LATE IN THE NIGHT. OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR...WITH SOME
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY...THEN MIXING
WITH AND/OR CHANGING OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...
SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY WINDS ON BOTH LAKES WILL INCREASE SOME
ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...THOUGH THE RESULTING HIGHER WAVES
WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO CANADIAN WATERS.

ON TUESDAY...A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL TAKE AIM ON THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL CROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO BETWEEN
21-03Z...LIKELY PRODUCING SOME GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PROCESS.
OTHERWISE...A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT WILL FRESHEN TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON LAKE ERIE
AND LAKE ONTARIO AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FRESH
SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL PERSIST ACROSS ALL OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE STRONG WESTERLIES BECOME
ESTABLISHED ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
         THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/JJR
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/CHURCH/JJR
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...CHURCH/JJR







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