Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 201439
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1039 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...AND WILL ACT AS THE FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MUCH OF THOSE
TWO DAYS WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1430Z...REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A BROAD SURFACE LOW
OVER MICHIGAN...WITH AN ATTENDANT DIFFUSE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE ERIE AND INTO WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...A DECAYING AREA OF
SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST PA IS SLOWLY LIFTING TOWARD THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER...WHILE FURTHER NORTH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE FOUND FROM FAR WESTERN NEW YORK EASTWARD INTO THE FINGER LAKES
REGION.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT A BIT FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NEW YORK...
WHILE A MODEST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLOWLY DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA
ALOFT. IN CONJUNCTION WITH FURTHER MOISTENING OF OUR AIRMASS
/PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES/ AND DAYTIME
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION...THESE FEATURES SHOULD HELP OUR CURRENT
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BECOME CONSIDERABLY MORE
NUMEROUS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
HOURS...WHEN SOME SCATTERED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ALSO FORM
GIVEN PROJECTED SBCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG. WITH TALL SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES AND WEAK WIND FIELDS IN PLACE ALONG WITH THE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM
ANY STORMS OR HEAVIER SHOWERS...WHILE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER
LIKELY REMAIN VERY LOW.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY LEVELS TODAY...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING HIGH TEMPS RANGING
BETWEEN THE MID 70S AND LOWER 80S...AND DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE
MID 60S.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EASTWARD THIS EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT AND
FOCUSING BOUNDARY SHIFTS EASTWARD. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH LATE DAY INSTABILITY...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE LIFT
OF THE NEARING UPPER LEVEL LOW TO BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WNY THIS EVENING. BY LATE OVERNIGHT THE BULK OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE TOWARDS THE EAST IN PROXIMITY TO
THE STALLING WARM FRONT...WITH JUST A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER WNY
UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL PUSH TO NORMAL...OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL
DESPITE THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS BE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR
THE REGION...WITH 80S MOST LIKELY TOWARDS THE FINGER LAKES AND
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE SOME MORNING SUNSHINE WILL BE
FOUND. TONIGHT A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE
60S WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A SPLIT FLOW FEATURING A PSEUDO REX BLOCK OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BREAK DOWN AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG H25
WINDS RACING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND KICK OUT THE DOWNSTREAM CYCLONE. A BURGEONING RIDGE WILL
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERAL IMPROVEMENT
OVER OUR REGION. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...OUR TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL INTO AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH
MODERATELY HIGH HUMIDITY.

THE ILL DEFINED REMNANTS OF AN H5 LOW IN THE VCNTY OF GEORGIAN BAY
THURSDAY MORNING WILL TRACK TO THE EAST ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO DURING
THE COURSE OF THE DAY. MEANWHILE THE ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC REFLECTION
WILL DRAG ONE LAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...
COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL TRANSLATE INTO MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY BEING FOUND
EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY WHERE THE STRONGEST FORCING NEAR THE SFC
FRONT WILL BE FOUND. PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.75 WILL BE A LITTLE
LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...BUT LIGHT STEERING WINDS EAST OF
ROCHESTER WILL PERSIST...SO THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
SOME SLOW MOVING MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WHILE THE ABUNDANCE OF
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN SOMEWHAT...A WARM AIRMASS WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS (C) SHOULD ENABLE MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. THE MODERATELY HUMID AIRMASS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
WARMER AS WELL...ESPECIALLY AFTER OUR RECENT STRETCH OF FALL LIKE
WEATHER.

THE SHORTWAVE AND SUPPORTING H5 TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST-SOUTHEAST AWAY
FROM OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE THE
LEFTOVER SHOWERS TO END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE COURSE OF NIGHT
WHILE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP A FEW
DEGREES LOWER (UP 50S-LOW 60S) THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...AN INTERESTING SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE TO OUR
WEST. AN AMPLIFYING H5 RIDGE WILL BE FOUND OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND THIS WILL OVERLAY AN AREA OF
WEAKNESS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SHARPEN
A THERMAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE ALIGNED FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO
CENTRAL LAKE ERIE. WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FOCUS
IN THE VCNTY OF THIS BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST...OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD
BE MAINLY RAIN FREE. SINCE A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION THOUGH...CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...PARTICULAR IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL THUS
MAINTAIN LOW CHC POPS FROM CONTINUITY.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE H5 RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE A STRONG SFC
HIGH OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN
NEW YORK. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL KEEP A THERMAL BOUNDARY IN
PLACE FROM LAKE HURON TO LAKE ERIE AND WRN PENNSYLVANIA...WHERE IT
WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. THE BULK
OF OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD THUS BE RAIN FREE...PARTICULARLY EAST OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER AS A 593DM H5 RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL EXTEND NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE VCNTY OF CAPE COD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CLOSE TO 80 IN MANY AREAS MONDAY...AND THE LOWER
80S FOR MOST ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 60.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1430Z...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH JUST SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FOUND IN ADVANCE OF
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL LAKE ERIE AND
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT A BIT FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NEW YORK...
WHILE A MODEST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLOWLY DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA
ALOFT. IN CONJUNCTION WITH FURTHER MOISTENING AND HEATING OF OUR
AIRMASS...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR IN
LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL.

TONIGHT WITHIN THE MOIST AIRMASS SOME MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER ALONG WITH LOWERING VISIBILITIES. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME MVFR CIGS ELSEWHERE TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS STILL LOW
AT THIS TIME.

SHOWERS AND ANY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRIMARILY BE EAST OF THE
KROC AIRFIELD BY 00Z AS THE WARM FRONT STALLS NEAR LAKE ONTARIO AND
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ATTENDANT
LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES THIS MORNING TO
NEAR THE WEST END OF LAKE ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING WHERE IT WILL
DISSIPATE IN PLACE. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY
PASS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
AND FLAT WAVE ACTION. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR/THOMAS
MARINE...JJR/THOMAS








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