Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 141814
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
214 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING SPRING STORM SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS OUR
REGION WITH PARTS OF WESTERN NEW YORK ALSO EXPERIENCING GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 40 MPH. THE EXITING STORM WILL DRAG ITS COLD
FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT AND THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
SOAKING RAIN...WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SOME
ACCUMULATING WET SNOW IN ITS WAKE VERY LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE SOME 30 TO 40 DEGREES LOWER THAN
THOSE FROM TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN INITIAL LINE OF PREFRONTAL RAIN IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN NY THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THERE IS ONE THIN LINE OF
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION NEARING EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO NEAR KINGSTON
ON WITH ANOTHER LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT NEAR KCLE. ALL
THREE AREAS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GENERALLY LIGHT
AMOUNTS AS THE MOVE EASTWARD. ANY RAIN WILL PUT AN END TO CLIMBING
TEMPERATURES AS THEY MOVE PAST.

WINDS ARE PEAKING IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE OVER PARTS OF WESTERN
NY...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS NOTED FURTHER UPSTREAM NEAR THE EDGES
OF THE COLD LAKE DOMES AND NEARBY SHOWERS BELOW A LOW LEVEL 60KT
JET.

LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT POSSIBLE LULL IN RAIN THIS EVENING AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO/THROUGH THE REGION. THEN THE UPPER LEVEL JET OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL US WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES PAST WESTERN NY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER TX TOGETHER WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS STATES MERGE...DEVELOPING A SURFACE WAVE
ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST ON
TUESDAY...WITH COLD AIR QUICKLY MOVING IN. INITIALLY...EXPECT SOME
RESIDUAL WARM AIR ALOFT...WITH ANY RAIN CHANGING OVER TO A
POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX FOR A FEW HOURS GENERALLY WEST OF THE GENESEE
VALLEY...THEN OVER TO SNOW. THIS POSES A PROBLEM...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRANGE SETUP...TECHNICALLY FREEZING RAIN OVER
STILL WARM SURFACES RIGHT AROUND THE MORNING COMMUTE. NOT SURE IF
THIS WILL OCCUR OR HAVE ANY IMPACT. ADDED A CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX
INTO THE FORECAST...BUT AM STILL NOT QUITE CONFIDENT TO ISSUE ANY
ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO DISCUSS THIS WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES AND LOCALLY WITHIN...BUT THE FORECAST MAY OR MAY NOT
CHANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

ONCE THE AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW ON TUESDAY...SNOW
AMOUNTS ON STILL LOOK MINIMAL AS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD
MOVES EAST...SO WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST A GENERAL SLOPPY T-INCH
OR SO IN LOWER TERRAIN AND 1-3 HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN EVENT WILL BE OVER TUESDAY NIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL TO THE MID TEENS INLAND AND TO THE LOWER 20S
ALONG THE LAKESHORES AND LAKE PLAINS AS THE SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS
LESSEN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER NEW YORK STATE BY LATE
WEDNESDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE SUNSHINE WILL
STRUGGLE AGAINST THE COLD AIR IN PLACE...WARMING THE REGION TO ONLY
THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CELL WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE STATE BY EVENING AND MOVE TO THE EAST...TURNING
WINDS TO SOUTHEAST AND LIMITING THE FALL OF OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
TO LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTER A STORMY AND SUBSEQUENTLY FRIGID FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...MUCH
QUIETER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A
BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.

THE RIDGE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL ESTABLISH A SOUTHERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WITH A WARM ADVECTIVE PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE SLIGHTLY RIDGED UPPER PATTERN WILL PROTECT
THE REGION FROM AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TO NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN AN UPPER WAVE TRANSVERSING THE
MID CONTINENT WILL DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND BRING AN
OCCLUDED LOW AND WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. 12Z
ECMWF DIRECTS MOST OF THE ENERGY OF THIS TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES AND DEVELOPS A COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS ON
SATURDAY...MOVING UP THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY AND AVOIDING THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE. 12Z GFS CARRIES ON WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF AN OCCLUDED LOW UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE
TRIPLE POINT OF THE FRONTAL OCCLUSION AND WARM AND COLD FRONTS
PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP ON
SATURDAY THEN ONLY A SLIGHT POSTFRONTAL COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY. PREFER
TO FOLLOW THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF THIS AFTERNOON...AS A STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM
TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC. SFC WINDS ARE GUSTING 40 KNOTS OVER
WESTERN NY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS RAIN
COOLED AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.

AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...THE FRONT WILL
EASE ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR...WITH IFR
CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z TUESDAY. ANY RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
AFTER 12Z FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH A BRIEF WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE
WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...MVFR WITH SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TOWARD WESTERN QUEBEC BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE A STRONG
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF TONIGHT WITH WINDS REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR NEARSHORE WATERS AS WELL AS FOR THE IAG AND ST LAWRENCE
RIVERS. BECAUSE OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW... WAVES SHOULD NOT BE AN
ISSUE...BUT EVEN SO...A STABILIZING DOME OF CHILLY AIR OVER THE
CENTER OF THE LAKE WILL KEEP WINDS AND WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS TO
A MINIMUM.

THE WINDS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS WILL SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT WHEN
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WINDS AND WAVES WILL BUILD WITHIN A COLD ADVECTIVE NORTHWEST
FLOW DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES AT THAT TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY USHERING
IN A PERIOD OF TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CONCERNS CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION. THERE IS STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK ON THE TUG
HILL...HOWEVER THIS HAS BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO MELT INTO RUN
OFF RAPIDLY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. SMALLER CREEKS FED BY THE TUG
HILL AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW
NEAR BANKFULL DURING THIS PERIOD. TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...UP TO AN
INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THIS
WILL CAUSE BOTH CREEKS AND MAIN STEM RIVERS TO RISE.

THE BLACK RIVER IS ALREADY AT FLOOD STAGE AT WATERTOWN. SNOW
MELT WILL PUSH THIS GRADUALLY HIGHER...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT RISES
LIKELY FOLLOWING RAINS ON TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS IS LIKELY
TO PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING ON THE BLACK RIVER FROM LOWVILLE TO
WATERTOWN. THE RIVER IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...PROBABLY UNTIL THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ001-002-
     010>012-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...ZAFF
SHORT TERM...FRANKLIN/WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...RSH/ZAFF
MARINE...RSH/ZAFF
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/APFFEL







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