Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 170004
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
804 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AND
BEGIN GRADUALLY DISSIPATING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER SATURDAY. EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST MONDAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. FAIR
WEATHER EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CROSSING THE MIDLANDS
AND CSRA THROUGH TONIGHT.

WEDGE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. ALL MODELS INDICATE SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. COULD SEE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN INCREASING FROM THE WEST
TOWARD SUNRISE FRIDAY AS A SHORT WAVE CROSSING GA GETS CLOSER TO
THE CSRA.

LATE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO
UPPER 50S SOUTH WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVERNIGHT. KEPT LOWS NEAR
CONSENSUS...RANGING FROM NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRENDING SLOWER WITH PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS
AFFECTING OUR REGION. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER THE W
CONUS...FOUR CORNERS/FRONT RANGE REGION...THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW REMAINING WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS CANADA. LATEST
MODEL RUNS INDICATE UPPER SHORT WAVE TO TRAVERSE OUR REGION
FRIDAY...WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS NOT SHIFTING EAST INTO OUR REGION
UNTIL SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL TRY TO GRADUALLY ERODE FRIDAY.
MODELS INDICATE WEDGE ERODING DURING THE MORNING...BUT MODELS TEND
TO ERODE WEDGES TOO QUICKLY. HOWEVER...WEDGE MAY INDEED ERODE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WITH UPPER SHORT WAVE...DIURNAL HEATING...AND
APPEARANCE OF SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION...BUMPED UP POPS FOR FRIDAY. SATURDAY NOW APPEARS WILL BE
GENERALLY FAIR...WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER
THE REGION...THOUGH DIURNAL HEATING AND SEA BREEZE COULD LEAD TO
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM MAINLY SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT RANGE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY OPEN AND SHIFT EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS SAT NT AND SUN IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER ENERGY DIGGING SE FROM W CANADA/PAC NW INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/N PLAINS. UPPER HIGH AXIS WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST OFFSHORE
SAT NT. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER IMPULSES WILL
MOVE NE FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GULF
COAST REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TRACKING NE INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION...WHILE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SE INTO NEW ENGLAND. AN
INCREASING SE LOW LEVEL FLOW SATURDAY...BECOMING SW SUNDAY...WILL
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR REGION. WITH MODELS SLOWING
PROGRESSIONS OF SYSTEMS DOWN SOME...IT NOW APPEARS AXIS OF HIGH
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLY HEAVY
RAIN...SUNDAY AFTERNOON THRU SUN NT TIME FRAME. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT WITH MUCH HIGHER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MODELS SHIFT THE AXIS OF HIGHEST MOISTURE TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWER AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA. DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE
FRONT APPEARS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER FOR OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

COOL WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA. IFR CIGS START THE FORECAST BUT LIKELY WILL
FALL INTO LIFR BY 03Z-04Z ALL TERMINALS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
NIGHT BEFORE CIGS SLOWLY RISE AFTER 14Z FRIDAY. NOT CONFIDENT THAT
CIGS WILL INCREASE TO VFR BUT DO RAISE CIGS TO AROUND 2000 FT BY
LATE AFTERNOON 20Z-21Z. VSBYS ARE A TOUGHER FORECAST AS AREAS OF
DRIZZLE THT MOVE OVER TERMINALS WILL RESULT IN LOWERED VSBYS TO
IFR AT TIMES BUT EXPECT PREVAILING VSBYS TO BE MVFR/VFR.

UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHING THE AREA ON FRIDAY COULD SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CSRA AND HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY
SHOWERS AT AGS/DNL AFTER 16Z. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





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