Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 160227
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1027 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
IT WILL BE CLEAR AND DRY BUT COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S
AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 60S
THURSDAY. NORMAL LOWS ARE AROUND 50 AND NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN HAS SHIFTED WELL EAST OF THE AREA
AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CLOUDS BEGINNING
TO FINALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
STREAKING NORTHEAST FROM THE NE GULF OF MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN
GA...BUT AS MID/UPPER FLOW BECOME MORE WEST/NORTHWEST...EXPECT
THESE CLOUDS TO REMAIN SOUTH/EAST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE
MIDDLE/UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN/WESTERN MIDLANDS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 30S AS OF 10 PM. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S LATE
TONIGHT IN MANY LOCATIONS BUT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD STAY UP JUST A
BIT. AS A RESULT...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
NEAR FREEZING AND WINDS WILL PREVENT ANY FROST FORMATION.
THEREFORE...A FROST ADVISORY FOR FREEZE WARNING IS NOT EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IT
WILL BE CLEAR...DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
RUNNING AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND DAYTIME HIGHS RUNNING
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. EXPECTED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE 30S AND MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S
WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 60 THURSDAY. THE COLDEST PERIOD WILL BE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
INDICATING THAT MANY PLACES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THURSDAY MORNING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE SOME OF THE TYPICALLY COLDER/MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS..SUCH
AS CEDAR CREEK...PELION...AUGUSTA BUSH FIELD AND JOHNSTON FALL TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES...MAYBE EVEN UPPER 20S. MODELS ARE INDICATING A
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING TOMORROW NIGHT OF 25 TO 30 KTS. THIS WILL
AFFECT WHETHER OR NOT TEMPERATURES FALL THAT LOW. A FROST ADVISORY
OR FREEZE WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY. STAY TUNED FOR LATER FORECAST
UPDATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND BE OVER THE AREA BY DAYS END ON FRIDAY.
THE MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY
BUT FAR ENOUGH EAST SO THAT THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. ON
FRIDAY WILL HAVE POPS 10 TO 15 PERCENT IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE
CWA AND 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE IN THE EASTERN PART. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE THE SYSTEM OFF THE
COAST WITH THE GFS LIFTING IT NORTHEAST AND THE ECMWF CUTTING IT
OFF AND KEEPING IT OFF THE COAST. AT THIS POINT WILL KEEP A 15 TO
25 PERCENT POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THEN BUILD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FOR THE EASTER WEEKEND.
THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER POTENTIAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA FOR
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BUT THERE ARE SUBSTANTIAL TIMING
DIFFERENCES. I WILL GO WITH HPC GUIDANCE AND PUT 20 TO 30 POPS IN
FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE AND RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE
NEAR NORMAL INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED EAST OF
THE TERMINALS WITH MAINLY LOW VFR CEILINGS IMPACTING CAE/CUB/OGB
WITH THE COLD ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
MODERATE TO STRONG THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING A BIT
LATE TONIGHT AS WIND DIRECTION VEERS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BY
MORNING. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AFTER 06Z ALL TERMINALS WITH NO
CHANCES OF FOG DUE TO WIND AND LOW LEVEL DRYING. WINDS WILL PICK
UP BRIEFLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH GUSTS
TO 15-20 MPH POSSIBLE BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT RAIN.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
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