Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 301841
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
241 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MORNING STRATOCUMULUS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
AND INSTABILITY DUE TO DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S HAVE THINNED AS MIXING
HAS TAKEN PLACE. SOME EARLIER SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS
HAVE DISSIPATED DUE TO THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR ALOFT AND
WEAKENING INSTABILITY AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS INCREASE. EXPECT
GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE CSRA AND POSSIBLY ALONG A
NORTHWESTWARD ADVANCING SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PWAT VALUES
AND HIGH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND LIKELY
PREVENT ANY THUNDERSTORMS WITH SUCH WARM AIR ALOFT IN PLACE WITH
700MB TEMPS AROUND +9C AND 500MB TEMPS AROUND -4C. TEMPERATURES
WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 90S AND HUMIDITIES WILL BE NOTICEABLY
HIGHER TODAY WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE CSRA SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...EXPECT SOME STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL
HELP LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT STILL HANGS IN STRONG
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW A MOIST LOW LEVEL
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAKENING FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWEST/WEST BY MONDAY. FLOW RETURN TO MORE SOUTH BY MONDAY
NIGHT. GUIDANCE POPS/MODEL SPECTRUM ONLY INDICATING SLIGHT
CHANCE/VERY LOW CHANCES POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE STAYED CLOSE
TO THESE NUMBERS WITH ACTIVITY TO BE MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
ONLY SOME WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM
IN THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 AND EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS S/WS MOVE W TO E IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES AND REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS PW VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES. PW VALUES DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES.
WITH THE PASSING OF EACH S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY HAVE
CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. CHANCES OF RAIN AT
TERMINALS ARE LOW THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG MIXING AND DRY AIR
ALOFT SO WILL NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS
AROUND AGS/DNL WILL WARRANT VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET
OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR STRATUS/FOG
08Z-14Z WHICH WILL LIFT INTO AN MVFR STRATOCUMULUS DECK.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







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