Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 041906
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
206 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A DRASTIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE
BACK TO THE REGION AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL PROVIDE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING FARTHER
OFFSHORE SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURN POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...THE WEDGE HAS FINALLY BROKEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA. SOME LOWER CUMULUS CLOUDS HANGING ON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
IN THE WARMER AIRMASS. STRONG SW WINDS HAVE MIXED DOWN AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RISING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE LATE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 70S
NORTH...AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH FREQUENT WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. SOME RC WINDS
MESONET SITES HAVE REPORTED GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH. HELD OFF ON LAKE
WIND ADVISORY DUE TO LESS MIXING OVER THE COOLER LAKE
WATERS...LAKE MURRAY WATER TEMP 47. CRITERIA FOR A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY IS AT LEAST 21 KTS SUSTAINED AN/OR FREQUENT GUSTS GREATER
THAN 25 KTS. THINK WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE AREA LAKES WILL
REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT IT STILL
WILL BE BREEZY ON THE AREA LAKES AND OVER THE LAND AREAS.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NW STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN MS
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN VA WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
REGION. EXPECT BY 12Z THAT THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE
UPSTATE. THIS TIMING IS IN PRETTY AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS.
WITH A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 35 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND MILD SW
WINDS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN UNSEASONABLY MILD OVERNIGHT.
ACTUALLY CLOSER TO THE NORMALS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY
MARCH. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS IN THE LOWER 60S AND WILL STAY
CLOSE TO CONSENSUS OVERNIGHT. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...POPS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE NW. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW
CHANCE POP BY LATE TONIGHT TOWARD EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CWA TO START OFF THE DAY. THIS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON WHEN THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL LIKELY OCCUR BEFORE
NOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 60S BEFORE FALLING
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE MIDLANDS...HIGH WILL OCCUR
SHORTLY AFTER NOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE 60S TO
LOWER 70S...THEN BEGINNING TO FALL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE COUNTIES ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL EXPERIENCE PEAK HEATING
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING BACK INTO
THE MIDDLE 70S BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALONG WITH THE
FRONT...THE REGION CAN EXPECT A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH. WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
GUSTY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA.
DRASTIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS AS IF THE PRECIP WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE CWA BY THE TIME ANY TEMPERATURES REACH FREEZING.
HOWEVER IF THE TIMING IS OFF ON EITHER THE PRECIP OR TEMPERATURES...A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME
NORTHEASTERN AREAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

FRIDAY MORNING WILL START OFF COLD...WITH READINGS IN THE 30S.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WILL NOT ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB MUCH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN
EAST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY...CLOSER TO THE COAST.  THE
COLDEST AIR WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AND CLOSER TO THE
COAST. AREAS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 30S THROUGH THE
DAY...WHILE CENTRAL AND WESTERN COUNTIES MAY REACH THE LOWER 40S.
NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH
COLDER.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF SHORE.
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT DO
EXPECT TO SEE A SLOW MODERATING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLIMB BACK UP
TO AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM IN REGARDS TO POPS.
MODELS STILL NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO FOR THE
MOST PART HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF LATEST FORECAST AND
NEWEST HPC GUIDANCE. THIS GENERALLY KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK ONWARD.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDGE HAS BROKEN DOWN ACROSS THE AREA AS STRONG SW WINDS HAVE
ERODED ANY COOL AIR. SKIES HAVE BECOME VFR WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN FROM THE SW AT AROUND 15 TO 20
MPH WITH GUSTS FROM 25 TO 30 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 30 TO 35 KNOTS WILL HELP KEEP WINDS UP
OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS AGAIN THIS EVENING WITH
CIGS EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO LIFR AFTER 03Z AGS/DNL AND BY 07Z
CAE/CUB/OGB...ALTHOUGH THINK VSBYS MAY NOT BE AS LOW DUE TO STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS STAYING UP. COULD SEE MORE STRATUS AND
LESS LOWER VSBYS. BY 13Z...AS COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER EXPECT WIND
TO PICK UP ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER 18Z...TAF PERIOD...EXPECT
WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE N AND NORTHEAST AND BECOME BREEZY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION. ALSO EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$






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