Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 312024
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
424 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
DEEP MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS
SHOW H5 RIDGING BUILDING TONIGHT. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE WEAK. WE WILL HAVE LIGHT WIND WITH HIGH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST WITH MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND STRONGER INSTABILITY REMAINS MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA.
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO MAY TRIGGER CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGHER CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH ATLANTIC. UPPER TROUGH
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING
IN THE MIDWEST. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTH DURING THE
PERIOD. DEEPER MOISTURE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND AS NORTHEAST/EAST
LOW-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. ENSEMBLE POPS INDICATE RISING POPS.
EXPECT A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER ATMOSPHERE MOVING SOUTH INTO REGION HELPING TO ERODE CLOUDS
OVER THE MIDLANDS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE CSRA. MVFR CIGS WILL
LIFT TO VFR AFT 20Z MOST AREAS AND BECOME VFR EVERYWHERE BY 22Z.
SOME FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK WILL PRODUCE MVFR VSBYS WITH BRIEF IFR
VSBYS AT AGS BETWEEN 10Z-12Z. WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROF OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MID WEEK WE CAN EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
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