Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 011021
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
621 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE TROUGHS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN US
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH ALSO ACROSS
THE REGION. INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY AND COMBINE WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT TO RESULT IN LOWER
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
RETURNING TO THE WESTERN MIDLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA. HAVE REMAINED WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN
CONCERN BEING THE DRIER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL AGAIN PUT THE CONCERN
ON POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
DEVELOP. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AND LOSS OF
HEATING...HOWEVER WITH THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHING EXPECT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS TO REMAIN OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MOISTURE WILL AGAIN INCREASE OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS THE
AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES WITH
THE AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY. COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE AREA CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BEST INSTABILITY
WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. PWAT VALUES WILL BE 1.7 INCHES OR GREATER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. MAIN SEVER THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AS
FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 14 KFT AND WET BULB ZERO OF 13 KFT OR HIGHER
WILL LIMIT HAIL POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 90S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO FILL OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION THERE WILL BE
A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE. MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS WITH THE GFS AS A
SUBSTANTIAL CHANCE WITH THE LAST RUN TRIES TO DEVELOP A WEAK
SURFACE LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THE REMAINS OF THE FRONTAL
TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH HAVE TRENDED CHANGES FOR SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM TOWARD THE ECMWF.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATUS AROUND THE OGB TERMINAL RESULTING IN IFR
CONDITIONS...EXPECT STRATUS TO MIX OUT AFTER 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE WITH HIGH THIN CLOUDS. SCATTERED CUMULUS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTS
TO AROUND 15 KTS. THUNDERSTORM THREAT APPEARS LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED AT MOST LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY/FORCING. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY DUE TO UPSTREAM
CONVECTION. RESTRICTIONS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...AND PERIODS
OF MORNING FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
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