Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 310904
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
504 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ALONG THE GULF COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THE NORTH WITH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL LIMIT MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
SINKING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. FORECASTED JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
IN THE SOUTH PART TONIGHT WHERE THE NAM AND GFS SHOW SOME MOISTURE
MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE GFS WAS
MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THIS FEATURE AND ITS MOS HAD POPS OF 20 TO 30
PERCENT. IT WILL BE WARM TODAY. THE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT WITH
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. DEEP MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN BREEZY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM
TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTED GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. WIND SHOULD
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND LIMITED
MIXING. THE LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE TONIGHT WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL
DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT SHOULD BE DRY. ALL OF
THE NAM AND GFS MOS HAVE POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE COAST SHOULD CIRCULATE
MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. THIS
MOISTURE ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
SUPPORTS SHOWERS. AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY. THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM HAS A TOTAL TOTALS RISING TO
NEAR 50.

THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MUCH OF THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE LIFTING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE LESS
OF A SHOWER CHANCE.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER CHANCE MAY OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. HEATING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT MAY ALSO HELP CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS HAS COME INTO
BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE ECMWF. THE MODELS ARE NOW CLOSE WITH
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT A
POP NEAR 40 PERCENT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MOS ON BOTH MODELS HAS
TRENDED LOWER WITH THE POP SATURDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS DRY PATTERN.

SHOWERS MAY RETURN MONDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE HIGH OFF THE COAST
MONDAY WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE FORECAST
AREA SUPPORTING CHANCE POPS.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE WARMEST DAY SHOULD BE FRIDAY
JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT POSSIBLE BRIEF
IFR/MVFR VSBYS AT AGS THIS MORNING DUE TO FOG.

COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE TAF SITES. AN INVERSION WILL BRING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS THROUGH 15Z. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AT 7 KNOTS
AROUND 15Z...THEN INCREASE TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 11 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE AT
AGS AND DNL AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER TODAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE SKIES
ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





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