Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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856
FXUS62 KCAE 140640
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
140 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and cool Canadian high pressure will build across the
region through Monday. A cold front will cross the area Tuesday
night into Wednesday with limited moisture, bringing a
reinforcing shot of cooler air. Temperatures will remain below
normal through the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
An upper level trough axis continues to slowly move east across
the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. At the surface, a cold canadian
1040mb high pressure center was located over Illinois and will
continue to build into the area today. Atmosphere remains very
dry with precipitable water values less than a quarter inch.
This will result in mostly clear skies over the forecast area
with no chance for precipitation.

Temperatures will remain below normal today with highs expected
in the 40s, 10-15 degrees below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Fair and cool. Mean upper trough to remain over the E CONUS. Surface
high will continue shifting into the east coast tonight, and
gradually weaken Monday as a front pushes SE into the Ohio and Tenn
valleys Mon/Mon nt.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper trough over the E CONUS to be reinforced by strong embedded
energy digging SE into the region Wednesday. Surface boundary to
push through Tue nt/Wed. Continued appearance of limited
moisture availability. Latest model runs trending down on
moisture/POPs. generally indicating slight chance. Thermal
profiles and local tools continue to indicate if any
precipitation occurs, it could be a combination of rain, snow or
mix thereof at times. Not expecting significant accumulation or
impacts.

Cold dry Canadian surface high pressure will build into the region
behind the front for Wednesday night through Friday. Models
indicating a pair of upper impulses, a northern and a southern
stream system, that could affect our region as early as Fri nt.
Appearance of limited moisture. Latest model guidance indicates
slight chance POPs. A more significant system may affect the
region just beyond the current forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High confidence in VFR conditions through the 24-hr TAF period.

High pressure will reside over the region providing clear and
dry conditions with no aviation concerns. Winds will be out of
the north at 5 to 10 knots through dawn and then become more
northeasterly by 15z with gusts up to 12 to 15 knots. No fog
expected due to the dry airmass in place.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation
expected through Thursday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$



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