Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 231444
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1044 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level ridging will move into the region over the weekend
supporting dry conditions and above normal temperatures through
the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
An upper level trough over the Deep South will shift westward
today. Mid and low level high pressure will build in from the
north producing a capping inversion, inhibiting convective
development. The air mass also appears drier today with
satellite derived PWAT values lower than the past couple of
days. Therefore we expect minimal, if any, shower and
thunderstorm development today. Model guidance supports low
PoPs with values less than 10 percent.

Temperatures will remain above normal today with highs around
90 degrees. Model temperature guidance is likely too cool given
recent verification.

Tonight, models suggest a stronger nocturnal jet and less low
level moisture than last night, indicating a lower threat of
patchy fog. Expect mostly clear skies and temperatures in the
mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper level low retrogrades to the lower Mississippi Valley.
Upper level ridge over the Northeastern and Mid Atlantic coast
extending into the Carolinas. This will keep both Jose and
Maria off the east coast. Surface high pressure centered over
the Ohio River Valley is expected to extend across much of the
eastern half of the country. A north to northeast low level wind
flow will keep a relatively dry air across the region. Dry
weather is foreseen for the weekend with afternoon highs in the
upper 80s and lower 90s. Overnight lows will be in the 60s. So
above normal temperatures for the next few days.

Hurricane Maria will be moving northward well offshore of Florida
and SC through the weekend. Aside from increased waves and swells
along the coast no impacts are expected from Hurricane Maria.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Models remain in good agreement through Wednesday with upper level
ridge dominant across the eastern CONUS and upper level trough over
the western CONUS. Surface high pressure extending from the eastern
Great Lakes to the Gulf of Mexico through Wednesday will weaken for
the end of next week. On Thursday the synoptic situation will begin
changing as the upper level trough digs into the Great Lakes and
central US. This will begin pushing a cold front southward into the
Ohio Valley on Thursday. Models differ on the intensity and timing
of the upper trough. Frontal boundary moving through on Friday
but moisture appears limited. Temperatures through the long
term will be above normal.

Hurricane Maria will also continue moving northward through the
first part of the week and remaining well offshore and moving away
from the region toward the end of next week. See no impacts for our
area.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure ridging into the mid-Atlantic will continue to
push drier air into the region. Drier air and a mid-level
capping inversion will inhibit convective development this
afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are not likely. Generally
expect light NE surface winds at all TAF sites but may become
variable at times.

Tonight, confidence in fog development is low. Models suggest a
stronger low level jet than the previous night and drier low
levels. Mostly clear skies and light winds may still allow for
shallow ground fog to develop at fog prone AGS. Have not
included in TAFS at this time given low confidence.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Late night/early morning
fog/stratus possible each morning...mainly at the fog prone
sites AGS and OGB.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$


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