Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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205
FXUS62 KCAE 062234
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
534 PM EST Tue Dec 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Complex low pressure extending from the Ohio River Valley to
Southeast Coast will move northeast and be mainly off the Mid-
Atlantic Coast late tonight. Dry high pressure will briefly build
across the forecast area for Wednesday. Another cold front will
cross the region Thursday bringing much colder air for the end of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
The complex low pressure system extending from the Ohio River
Valley to Southeast Coast will move northeast and be mainly off
the Mid-Atlantic Coast late tonight. The models show a weak
pressure gradient in the forecast area. Expect continued high low-
level moisture and with the dry air aloft and nocturnal cooling
significant fog will likely develop as indicated by most of the
NAM and GFS MOS and a significant number of SREF members. A dense
fog advisory may be needed. Followed the guidance consensus for
the temperature forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Expect lingering fog and low cloudiness in the morning Wednesday.
Visibilities gradually improving, but some concern over lingering
cloud cover near an inverted trough setting up near the CSRA.
Otherwise, expect dry conditions Wednesday. Weak isentropic lift
near the boundary ahead of an approaching front could promote some
continued cloud cover Wednesday night, but no precipitation
expected.

Upper trough will swing from the central CONUS to the E CONUS
Thursday, ahead and south of which an upper impulse will ride
across the southern tier of states and across our region. A cold
front will move through our region Thursday. Models indicating
limited moisture with the system, with the most recent guidance
blend confining slight chance pop to the N FA. Behind the front,
cold dry polar high pressure will shift into the SE CONUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The center of the polar high is expected to shift across the Ohio
Valley and towards the Central/Southern Appalachians Friday
night/Saturday morning. Some uncertainty as to how ideal the
radiational cooling conditions can get over our FA as the high
center may remain just to our north. However, if the high center
can get close enough, this air mass is cold and dry enough to
support undercutting guidance min temps for early Sat morning.
Will maintain min temps 20-25 across the FA. Daily record low for
Columbia for Dec 10th is 20, and for Augusta is 16. Latest GFS and
EC continue to indicate a front coming through Monday/Monday
night, with some weak isentropic lift light precip possibly
developing ahead of it Sunday/Sunday night. Some uncertainty with
the next system that could affect our region late Tuesday into
Wednesday. Used guidance blend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The complex low pressure system extending from the Ohio River
Valley to Southeast Coast will move northeast and be mainly off
the Mid-Atlantic Coast late tonight. The models show a weak
pressure gradient in the forecast area. Expect continued high low-
level moisture and with the dry air aloft and nocturnal cooling
IFR ceilings and fog will likely continue or redevelop tonight as
indicated by most of the NAM and GFS MOS and a significant number
of SREF members. Wind should remain light Wednesday with a
lingering inversion. Improving ceilings and visibilities
associated with some heating may be slow to occur Wednesday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
A cold front with little moisture will move through the area
Thursday. Breezy conditions may be associated with the front.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$



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