Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 301629
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1129 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
TODAY AND SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NW WINDS CONTINUING BEHIND A COLD FRONT...WITH WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH...BRINGING IN DRIER AIR. COOL ADVECTION BEING
OFFSET SOME BY SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW. TWEAKED MAX TEMP TODAY
UP JUST A TAD. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE REQUIRED TO ONGOING
FORECAST FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION INTO
SATURDAY. TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH READINGS A LITTLE
BELOW CLIMO. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
MOVING TOWARDS THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE
CONTINUED THE TREND OF SLOWING THIS SYSTEM DOWN SLIGHTLY. EXPECT
THE DAY ON SUNDAY TO START OFF DRY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THE MAIN UPPER SUPPORT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
NOT MOVE INTO THE REGION UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
AND MONDAY MORNING. WITH WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SETTING UP SUNDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP MUCH AND MAY ACTUALLY RISE
SLIGHTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PRECIP MOVES THROUGH.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION RAPIDLY DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY...TAKING THE PRECIP ALONG WITH IT. BRIEF RETURN TO
DRY WEATHER SHOULD OCCUR FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT. THEN THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE POISED TO PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA. AT THIS TIME THE MODELS DO DIFFER WITH THE STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING AND
TRACKING THE SURFACE LOW FROM THE GULF NORTHEASTWARD MUCH FASTER
THAN THE ECMWF DOES. THE GFS ALSO HAS MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY
UPPER FLOW PATTERN EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF DOES...WHICH WOULD
ACCOUNT FOR THE FASTER SPEED OF THE SURFACE FEATURES. WITH THE
FASTER SPEED...THE GFS BRINGS THE PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS DRIER ON WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY. WENT GENERALLY WITH A BLEND OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE LATEST 00Z HPC GUIDANCE FOR NOW. STILL
MUCH UNCERTAINTY THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD.

NW WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT BRINGING IN DRIER AIR. WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 25 KT EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
LATE TONIGHT...BUT NO FOG EXPECTED DUE TO DRY AIR. VFR CONTINUING
SATURDAY...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
OVER THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOCALIZED GROUND FOG AT
FOG PRONE AGS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





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