Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 051848
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
148 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
REMAIN TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A DRY AIRMASS WILL HOLD SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED TONIGHT GIVEN A VERY DRY
AIRMASS...CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS. LOWS LOCAL RADIATION
TECHNIQUE INDICATED A LOW OF 25F FOR CAE AND 23F FOR AGS. WENT
WITH GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
AROUND 30.

HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY SUNRISE AS THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER POSITIVELY TILTED...HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA AS A CLOSED LOW ON SUNDAY.  THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL INDUCE STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OF A
COASTAL LOW FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THEN THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF REASONABLY CLOSE WITH PLACEMENT OF
SFC LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ALTHOUGH GFS MAY BE JUST A BIT
FARTHER TO THE WEST.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW OVER THE MIDLANDS WITH
ONLY THE EASTERN MIDLANDS SEEING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE
ABOVE 0.25 INCHES TO AS HIGH AS 0.50-0.60 INCHES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ALONG THE
COAST AND EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHWARD...POSSIBLY
IMPACTING MAINLY THE EASTERN MIDLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME COLD AIR ALOFT AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE
AREA MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS MAINTAIN RAIN WOULD BE
DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE...AND THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH OF THAT EVEN IF
THE LOW DEVELOPS A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH
OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ZONAL UPPER FLOW RESUMING OVER
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEEP AND EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND TAKE RESIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART
OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH MID WEEK. SEVERAL WAVES OF VORTICITY MOVING
THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BUT THE STRONGEST OF THEM WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH VERY STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES AS 500MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -25C TO -29C. ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WILL NOT BE OVERLY GREAT BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 0.50 INCHES AND BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT PTYPE TABLE AND
METEOGRAMS INDICATE PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE ALL
RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH CLT BUFKIT SOUNDING
INDICATING POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX. SO IT CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED
OUT THAT THERE COULD BE A POSSIBLE MIX OF SOME SNOW WITH THE RAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS BY MONDAY EVENING AS COOLER AIR
ARRIVES. WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT WITH RAIN AS THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE.

MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AND PROVIDES A
DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT WHICH WOULD INHIBIT PRECIPITATION MAKING IT TO
THE MIDLANDS.  A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND -6C TO -8C BY TUESDAY MORNING.
UPPER FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH PERIODIC DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW BUT HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE QUITE COOL AND WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. TEMPERATURES MODERATE A BIT FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND 30.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD.

DRY AIRMASS OVER THE TAF SITES WITH CLEAR SKIES. NORTHERLY WINDS
10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL DECREASE THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET.
SHOULD SEE INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND SUNRISE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS...
MAINLY AT OGB...SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS...FOLLOWED BY A DRY
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES MON THRU
WED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$


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