Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 271045
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
645 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD TO THE NORTH TODAY WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT
AND ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE MAY AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE: EARLY MORNING STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS
SHOULD LIFT BY MID-MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD
SLIGHTLY EAST BRINGING RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL
WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO FLORIDA. BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...WE WILL SEE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. HAVE INDICATED A DRY
FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT GIVEN LACK OF TRIGGER. AFTERNOON HIGHS
COULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN SUNDAY...WITH READINGS MAINLY
IN THE MID 90S. KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING SOME ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S.
WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TUESDAY. ADDED
IN WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE MID 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WED...UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST...THOUGH WILL
BUILD EAST SOME INTO OUR REGION WITH SOME SLIGHT UPPER HEIGHT
RISES EXPECTED FOR OUR FA WEDNESDAY AS EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST OFFSHORE. IT APPEARS THE SURFACE
TROUGH MAY SLIP A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...WITH
POSSIBILITY OF SOME DRIER AIR TRYING TO BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR N/NE FA ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
DEPARTING SURFACE LOW WELL OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC. AS A
RESULT...GUIDANCE POPS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE SOUTH
AND WEST FA WED.

THU THRU SUN...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO
SHIFT WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL
ALLOW A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION. IN
ADDITION...ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION. AT
THIS TIME..ACCEPTED BLEND OF LATEST HPC GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...WITH POPS RISING TO GOOD CHANCE FRI THRU SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH EARLY MORNING
MVFR/IFR AT AGS/OGB/CUB.

PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE COASTAL AND EASTERN MIDLANDS
ALONG WITH SOME LIFR CEILINGS. EXPECT THE FOG AND STRATUS TO
DISSIPATE BY 12Z AND WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION VFR
CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE EARLY MORNING AND SUNRISE HOURS TUESDAY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE AND TIMING REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
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