Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
FXUS62 KCAE 191515
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1115 AM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016
An upper-level ridge across the area will weaken allowing an
upper-level trough to cross the region Friday through Saturday.
Surface high pressure will be in control of the region through
tonight. A cold front with will move across the area Friday.
Cooler and drier air will move in behind the front for the
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today will be partly cloudy and unseasonably warm. Surface high
pressure and a ridge axis overhead will allow for high
temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Temperatures will be in
the upper 80s across the forecast area. Columbia may approach its
record of 90 degrees, but most likely will stay a degree or two
Tonight, drier low levels will inhibit fog formation over the
majority of the area. Scattered low clouds may develop early
Thursday morning. Overnight lows will be around 60 degrees.
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday: A dry airmass and surface high pressure will remain in
place. Hot and dry conditions will prevail. Temperatures remain
well above normal for this time of the year. Afternoon highs in
the middle 80s.
Thursday night through Friday: Models in relatively good agreement
for this period. Two systems will approach the region. One is a
potential tropical low over the eastern Atlantic. The other is a
cold front that will begin approaching the region late Thursday
night, with the front passing through the cwa during the day on
Friday. This front and associated upper trough digging towards the
east coast, will keep the tropical system well off the Carolina
coast. Along the front there may be a few showers, but moisture
will still be limited. Best chance for rainfall may be across the
northern third of the cwa during the late morning and early
afternoon. Do not expect much rainfall across the southern
Midlands and CSRA. Winds associated with the front will become
rather gusty on Friday, with gusts 20 to 25 mph possible.
Friday night through Saturday night: Cooler and even drier air
will make its way back into the region. Deep upper trough will
move into and through the area through this period. Temperatures
will be noticeably cooler with the surface high as it settles
into the region. Lows both Friday night and Saturday night will
fall into the 40s. Afternoon highs on Saturday will be in the
middle 60s north, to around 70 in the southern CSRA. It will
definitely begin to feel more like Fall.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Dry weather, along with more seasonable temperatures, will remain
over the region through the longer term. Another front may
approach the region Monday into Tuesday, with with moisture
limited, this front may pass through with little to no rainfall.
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dry weather will continue today with surface high pressure and an
upper ridge axis overhead. Winds will be light through the period
generally around 5 knots or less and may shift from W to S this
Drier low levels tonight suggest a lower fog threat. Cannot rule
out some MVFR/IFR fog or low stratus at fog prone AGS/OGB. Model
guidance may be too pessimistic.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible in scattered