Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 300229
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1029 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY MORNING...LASTING THROUGH
THURSDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE AREA. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
EASTERN GULF WILL SHIFT ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS
ONLY A FEW REMAINING ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO END COMPLETELY ONCE THE SHORTWAVE IS EAST OF THE AREA
EARLY TUESDAY. HAVE REDUCED POPS TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BEGIN CLEARING
OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS WORKING INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE
INDICATING FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE IN THE
WESTERN PART OF THE FA WHERE THE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA EARLY TUESDAY. MEANWHILE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING BACK INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA...WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS AGAIN. DO NOT EXPECT AS STRONG OF A WEDGE PATTERN
WITH THIS HIGH...DUE TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL REACH AROUND
80...THEN READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S RETURN. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM UPPER SUPPORT
PERSPECTIVE.  MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT.  RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR RETURNING AROUND MID TO LATE MORNING TUESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
TAF SITES BY 06Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES UNTIL THE DISTURBANCE PASSES TO THE EAST.
EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. LOWERING
CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. ANY CLEARING OF CLOUDS COULD RESULT IN DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HORUS...ESPECIALLY AT
AGS/DNL...GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES 14Z-17Z AS DRIER AIR
OVERTAKES THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





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