Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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329
FXUS62 KCAE 172344
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
744 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO CROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
HOLDS ACROSS THE REGION AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 60S...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY WARMER ON THE AREA
LAKES. WATER TEMPERATURES AT LAKE MURRAY IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION WILL BEGIN BREAKING DOWN
MONDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSING THE TN
VALLEY AND WESTERN GULF STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH PWAT VALUES MONDAY AFTERNOON
AROUND 1.75 INCHES WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH A STRONG
TRIGGER WILL NOT BE IN PLACE CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS COULD TAP
INTO SOME REMAINING MID-LEVEL DRY AIR RESULTING IN GUSTY OUTFLOWS
AND GENESIS OF NEW CELLS. CONTINUE TO EXPECT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST AREAS WITH LOW POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS
GUSTS. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET WITH CLOUDS LINGERING
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO EASTERN TN AND THE
CENTRAL GULF STATES BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE DECREASED
MOISTURE SLIGHTLY WITH THE LATEST RUN WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND
1.5 INCHES. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/TUESDAY EVENING AND...ALTHOUGH WEAK...WILL BE ENOUGH TO
COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO IGNITE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT TUESDAY WILL REMAIN LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY. WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING
IN PLACE AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION THE CHANCE OF
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE UNDER THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION MAY HELP SUPPORT STRATUS
AND FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS
LIMITED AND THE NAM INDICATES SOME MIXING SHOULD OCCUR ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET. MOST OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS. THE SREF GUIDANCE RESTRICTION PROBABILITIES ARE LOW.
FORECASTED VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG AT AGS
AND OGB AROUND SUNRISE BASED ON THE ADDED MOISTURE AND COOLING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIVER VALLEYS. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD
DISSIPATE ANY FOG LATER IN THE MORNING. HEATING...A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE RIDGE SHOULD
HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCATTERED
COVERAGE WITH THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
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