Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
FXUS62 KCAE 252250 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Columbia SC
650 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016
High pressure over the region will keep above normal temperatures
in the forecast through the end of the week. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are possible each afternoon and evening. Moisture
and instability will increase for the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Isolated afternoon convection generally waning early this evening
across the forecast area as the upper ridge remains strong
overhead. Clouds also diminishing across the area with little
evidence of an inland pushing sea breeze remaining on the latest
visible image. Expect mostly clear skies for much of the night and
do not think fog will be an issue with a forecast 25 knot low
level jet. Overnight lows again in the mid 70s.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure ridge dominates the SE US through mid week with no
airmass exchange for the next several days. Warm temperatures and
mainly dry conditions persist with isolated convection mainly
diurnally driven. PW values around 1.5 in the midlands to 2.0 in
the CSRA will provide moisture for the few thunderstorms that do
break through the capping. Temperatures will remain above normal
with afternoon highs in the mid 90s to near 100 degrees and lows
in the 70s. Heat indices will range from 100 to around 106
degrees each afternoon.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF models keep upper level ridge over the SE US through
late week before bringing a shortwave into the mid Mississippi and
Ohio river valleys by Sat 12z. At this time it appears most of the
energy associated with this feature will stay north of SC, however
it may be sufficient to push a cold front through the area Sat and
Sun. The better chances for convection appear to be next weekend
with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity of the
frontal bounday. Thursday and Friday mainly dry with
isolated/widely scattered convection. Temperatures above normal
with a little cooling by the weekend especially with greater cloud
cover. Expect highs in the mid/upper 90s with overnight lows in
the low/mid 70s.
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions to dominate the period.
This afternoon, an upper level ridge overhead and warmer 500 mb
heights suggests afternoon convection will be weak and isolated.
Hi-Res models are favoring the most activity in the CSRA, which a
few showers have already begun to form. Could see an isolated
shower across the CWA through early evening.
Tonight, models indicate drier low levels and some mixing
associated with a 20 to 25 kt LLJ. Fog potential will be
limited. South winds will continue into the evening becoming
variable overnight. On Tuesday...expect very similar conditions as
Monday with some cu developing in the late morning/midday hours.
Winds will be from the southwest around 6 kts.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low confidence in restrictions in
afternoon and evening convection each day. Low potential for brief
periods of early morning fog...mainly at AGS/OGB.