Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 171441
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
941 AM EST Fri Feb 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the southeastern states today.
An upper level disturbance will cross the region Saturday into
early Sunday bringing the next chance for showers. High pressure
and dry weather will return for Sunday night into early
Wednesday with unsettled weather for Wednesday onward. High
temperatures are forecast to be well above normal for the end of
the week into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
This afternoon: Dry conditions under mostly sunny skies. High
temperatures will likely be warmer than the models, as they were
yesterday, which will put this afternoon into the low to mid
70s. Winds will be southwest around 10 mph.

Tonight: Dry conditions continue.  High pressure will push off
the southeastern coast tonight, allowing a weak return flow to
return to the region. Upper level pattern becomes more out of
the southwest as the upper ridge axis shifts east of the area.
Some high cloudiness may be possible through the night. Lows
tonight moderate slightly, with readings in the lower 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level low crossing the Southern Plains will open up
while moving east into the southeastern states Saturday night.
Precipitable water is forecast to increase to around an inch
Saturday afternoon. We continued with slight chance to low
chance pops Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Rainfall
amounts will be light...less than one quarter of an inch.

Highs Saturday in the upper 50s and lower 70s. temperatures
should be a bit milder Saturday night given clouds and boundary
layer mixing.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Models are in good agreement through the middle of next
week...with differences in location and intensity for late Wednesday
and Thursday. Upper level disturbance will push away from the
area Sunday afternoon with high pressure and drier air once
again overtaking the region. With high pressure building in at
the surface a substantial upper level ridge will also build over
the eastern US. This combination will remain in control of the
region through Tuesday with upper level cloudiness ahead of the
next low pressure system overspreading the region Tuesday night.
The low will track through the northern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday
and Thursday pushing increasing moisture into the forecast area.
Models continue to differ on the intensity and timing of this
system with significant changes over the past couple of model
runs. With confidence in models currently low have made few
changes for Wednesday onward. Temperatures through the long term
will be above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions will persist. A few high clouds will pass over
CAE and CUB, but skies will otherwise be clear through the day.
High clouds will increase after 18/00Z in advance of the next
weather system. Winds will be out of the southwest with gusts 15
to 20 kts in the afternoon.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....Showers and associated restrictions
late Saturday through early Sunday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$



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