Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 202036
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
436 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER EASTWARD TONIGHT. A
WEAK TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED. THE PRESSURE RIDGE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR IS
IN PLACE. SOME STRATOCUMULUS OVER PART OF THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT
SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDINESS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT. IT WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION HAS OCCURRED WITH WARMING IN THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND DEVELOPING TROUGH. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO
AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER ENERGY WILL DIVE DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY...WITH
AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY IN PLACE...IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR
THAT MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED FOR OUR
REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
ALL OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS WITH POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
RIDGES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED
COOL AND DRY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A FEW
STRATOCUMULUS AND A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT
STRATOCUMULUS TO FADE WITH SUNSET...MAKING WAY FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW THIN HIGH CLOUDS REMAINING. LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT AND PICK UP OUT OF
THE WEST AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT FLUCTUATING
RESTRICTIONS AT FOG PRONE AGS...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
APPEARS QUITE LIMITED. CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION FOR TUESDAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





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