Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 270628
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
228 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MUCH COLDER
AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY TODAY WILL BE JUST OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE MODELS INDICATE A BUILDING H5 RIDGE TODAY WITH THE RIDGE
REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. IT WILL BE ANOTHER SUNNY
AND WARM DAY. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND HEATING AHEAD OF THE WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HELPED SUPPORT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
YESTERDAY. THERE SHOULD BE LESS OF A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AND THE
FRONT HAS BECOME MORE DIFFUSE SO IT MAY NOT BE QUITE AS WARM TODAY.
STILL...THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM MOS APPEAR TOO COOL BECAUSE
OF BUILDING H5 HEIGHTS AND YESTERDAY/S MODEL COOL BIAS. WE
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY.

NOCTURNAL COOLING AND LIGHT WIND SHOULD HELP SUPPORT PATCHY FOG
MAINLY NEAR BODIES OF WATER LATE TONIGHT. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE OFF THE COAST WITH A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE. NO PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR
BECAUSE OF GENERAL SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGING. TEMPERATURES
DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND WE USED THE WARMER
HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF RECENT VERIFICATION. THE LOW
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY A TRANSITION IN THE UPPER PATTERN FROM
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY TO AN UPPER
TROUGH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND COOLER.

THE MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT IN THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SLOW DOWN AND POSSIBLY STALL THE FRONT
JUST TO OUR EAST THURSDAY. THE ECMWF MOS INDICATED HIGHER POPS
COMPARED TO THE GFS MOS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE USED THE
LOWER POPS BECAUSE OF THE INITIAL DRY ENVIRONMENT AND THE FORECAST
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE H85 FLOW. BOTH MODELS INDICATE DIMINISHING
MOISTURE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.

THE MODELS HAVE DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS WAS MORE PRONOUNCED WITH LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE COAST AND HAD MOISTURE LINGERING CLOSER TO
THE AREA. THE MODELS WERE CONSISTENT SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS WITH
COLD ADVECTION SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKE REGION. THE RIDGE SHOULD
BE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY WITH COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
GFS...ECWFM...AND EKD MOS HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 30S SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST OF THE
SEASON COULD OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE
AT AGS/OGB.

CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY BACK DOOR INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING IN SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BUT MAINLY NORTH OF
THE TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT.  GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING SOME FOG POTENTIAL AT THE FARTHER SOUTH AND MOST FOG
PRONE SITES...AGS AND OGB. WILL INDICATE TEMPO PERIODS OF IFR VSBYS
AT AGS...AND TEMPO MVFR AT OGB.

HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD IN LATER TODAY. A
GENERALLY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...BUT SOME SLIGHT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE/DEWPOINT RECOVERY POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
BETTER CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING FOG...AND POSSIBLY STRATUS...TUE/WED.
A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WED/WED NT PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD HIGH FOR OCT 26TH OF 87 WAS TIED SUNDAY AT COLUMBIA SC.

DAILY RECORD HIGH FOR OCT 26TH OF 90 WAS ESTABLISHED SUNDAY AT
AUGUSTA GA.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY

CAE...10/27 90/1919
      10/28 90/1984

AGS...10/27 91/1919
      10/28 89/1984

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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