Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 191552 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1052 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA. AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH A SERIES OF WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING CHANCES OF
RAIN IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS TEXAS. SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
SOME CONFLUENCE OF THE 500MB FLOW SHOULD YIELD SOME THINNING OF
THE HIGHER CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN MORE DENSE CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP QUICKLY THIS MORNING INTO THE
MID 50S ALREADY AND WILL BUMP UP MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES
WITH SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF SUN BEFORE THICKER CLOUDS ARRIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE MODELS
DISPLAY ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPING IN THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH. THE RAIN CHANCE
SHOULD INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THE SPC WRF HAS RAIN
REACHING THE CSRA DURING THE 400 AM TO 700 AM TIME FRAME. THE SREF
POPS SUPPORT THIS TREND WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST SECTION
BY 700 AM. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING ALL-LIQUID PRECIPITATION.

ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SUPPORTS RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE EARLY
AND IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THE LIFT
APPEARS WEAK AND THE SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE. THE GUIDANCE POPS HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAINLY
AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN. LITTLE TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM.

THE MODELS SHOW HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT BELIEVE
THE RAIN CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF LITTLE OR NO ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS POPS WERE NEAR 10
PERCENT. THE RAIN CHANCE MAY INCREASE SUNDAY BECAUSE OF AN
INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ANOTHER APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS POPS OF 20 TO 30
PERCENT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGH
SUNDAY BECAUSE OF EXPECTED CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GULF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT AND DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT INDICATING A STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY SUPPORTING LIKELY SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. THE GFS AND ECWMF DISPLAY A DRY
WEST FLOW BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR FORECAST PERIOD.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY LATER
TODAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS RE-ENTER THE FORECASTS
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION.  ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH
ANOTHER SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





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