Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 161836
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
136 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak cold front now east of the area will continue moving off
shore this evening. High pressure build back into the area
tonight. High pressure will control the region through Saturday
when the next cold front will approach from the northwest. The
front will rapidly cross the region Saturday night with high
pressure returning for Sunday into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A weak cold front is now east of the cwa, and will continue
moving off the coast tonight. High pressure will build back
across the region overnight behind the front. Skies remain
mostly clear, with only some high level clouds moving across the
region through tonight. Lows tonight in the upper 30s to low
40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure along with dry air and mostly clear skies will
remain over the region Friday and Friday night. The synoptic
situation will begin changing Saturday as the upper level ridge
moves into the Atlantic Basin and strong low pressure over the
Great Lakes pushes a cold front into the MS Valley. Saturday
night the cold front will swing eastward and into the forecast
with rain expected to begin around midnight in the western
Midlands and the the early morning hours in the eastern
Midlands. Cold front will rapidly cross the region and with
models indicating weak instability and dynamic lift expect
rainfall amounts to be light with most locations under one
quarter inch. Temperatures Friday afternoon will be in the low
to mid 60s with overnight lows in the upper 30s to low 40s and
on Saturday highs will be in the mid 60s to low 70s with
overnight lows in the mid 40s to around 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper level pattern will remain moderately amplified through the
long term with systems crossing the region every couple days.
Models remain in agreement the cold front will be near the SC
Coast around sunrise Sunday morning with high pressure and dry
air rapidly building into the forecast area Sunday afternoon.
With the pressure gradient and cold air advection Sunday
afternoon expect some strong and gusty winds with winds
diminishing Sunday night as the pressure gradient relaxes. The
high pressure and dry air will remain in control of the region
Monday night with an upper level trough entering the region
Tuesday resulting in weak short waves developing over the
northern Gulf of Mexico and moving toward the Midlands.
On Wednesday the short waves will move just east of the forecast
area with weak high pressure maintaining control of the region.
Temperatures through the long term will be below normal with
Monday well below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the period. Weak cold
front is now east of the area. Mostly clear skies through the
period. Winds remain generally out of the northwest through the
day, then become light and variable overnight and into Friday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Breezy conditions are expected
Saturday and Sunday associated with another passing cold front
with a wind shift from southwest to northwest.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$


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