Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 200217
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1017 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE
JUST THIN HIGH CLOUDINESS. STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR.
THE MAV AND MET MOS HAVE LOWS NEAR 40. THE IN-HOUSE RADIATION
SCHEME INDICATES SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND THIS GUIDANCE
APPEARS ON TRACK BASED ON TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS DURING
THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY WILL
SLIDE OFFSHORE BY AFTERNOON. A DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...THOUGH WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING SOUTHWEST...
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 70S.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A DEEP CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL AMPLIFICATION
OCCURS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH
LITTLE IMPACT GIVEN A DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
COUNTER WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION...SO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH 75 TO 80 TUESDAY.

THERE WILL BE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN UNDER SUNNY SKIES AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 40S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY RIDGES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. COOL
AND DRY AIR WILL LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. NO
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ONLY CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED
CIRRUS MOVING THROUGH. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.
BUFKIT TIME SECTIONS DO SHOW A WEAK LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH A DRY AIR MASS SHOULD HELP
TO INHIBIT ANY FOG FORMATION TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EAST
OF THE REGION MONDAY...AND WINDS SHOULD SHIFT MORE OUT OF THE
SOUTH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. WITH MOISTURE INCREASING
SLIGHTLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...EXPECT ONLY A FEW CU TO DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





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