Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 221843
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
243 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure along the Carolina coast will move slowly
northeast. A few isolated showers are expected across Northeast
South Carolina this afternoon and Monday afternoon...otherwise dry
high pressure will build into the region through midweek.
Temperatures are expected to be at or slightly above normal
through the middle to late week with mainly dry conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Rest of this afternoon...A closed upper level low will continue to
drop south into the Mid-Atlantic region. The first in a series of
short wave disturbances along the periphery of the low will push east
of the area, and should bring at least a temporary end to the
isolated showers over the northeast Midlands by mid-late afternoon
as weak subsidence develops. In addition, the broken mid-level cloud
cover should scatter out some, resulting in more sunshine across the
area. Temperatures should warm to highs in the upper 70s to around
80 across most of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level low along the North Carolina coast Monday. Upper
ridge in the midwest moving slowly east. Another short wave may
trigger weak convection in the North Midlands and Pee Dee Monday
afternoon with Peak heating although subsidence expected. Omega
block breaking down Tuesday and air mass appears to dry out. Upper
level low moves further to the northeast and upper ridge builds
from the Mississippi valley into the Southeastern States/Gulf
Coastal region. Warming trend both days as warm advection develops
and ridge builds aloft. Near normal Tuesday with maximum
temperatures in the mid 80s and overnight minimum temperatures in
the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Models appear to be trending drier through at least mid to late
week...especially the ECMWF...as Bermuda high builds into the
area. Instability and moisture should be limited until the
weekend. Mainly fair and warm with temperatures at or above
normal. Isolated to scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms by
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through 18Z Monday.
Broken clouds, mainly in the 5-8k ft range, will likely persist into
the overnight hours as a series of upper level disturbances cross
the area. There could be isolated showers that accompany these
disturbances as well, but probabilities are too low to include any
mention in the TAFs. Clear skies then expected into midday Monday,
with northerly winds of 5-8 kt.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation
expected through Thursday.


&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$



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