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000
FXUS61 KCTP 101708
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
108 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL TRACK RAPIDLY THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK
AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY. A LATE WINTER
STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COLD
AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS FOR END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TEMPS STILL STRUGGLING A BIT BUT STILL WARMING AND SHOULD APPROACH
FORECASTED HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S NORTH TO MID-UPPER 50S SOUTH
BY 20Z WITH WAA SW FLOW AND GOOD DEAL OF MARCH SUNSHINE. WEAK
CLIPPER LOW WILL SLIDE BY HARMLESSLY TO OUR NORTH.

OTHER THAN A STRAY SPRINKLE OR FLURRY OVER THE NORTH...IT WILL
REMAIN DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD THROUGH TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 30S WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY 10 DEGREES OR SO IN MOST
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
TUESDAY SHOULD BE A VIRTUAL REPEAT OF TODAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK
ABOUT BEFORE A RETURN TO WINTRY WEATHER OCCURS FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS NOW IN THE PROJECTED
EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT STORM THAT SHOULD MOVE IN LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY.

THE SURFACE LOW IS MADE TO TRACK EAST THROUGH NRN VA TO THE NJ
COAST. THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG UPPER JET IS FCST TO SLIDE
EAST OVER NY STATE...HELPING SUPPORT A ZONE OF VIGOROUS
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...LASTING INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. INITIALLY THE COLD AIR IS STACKED UP OVER NWRN
PA...BUT IT GETS DRAWN SOUTHWARD ON THE LOWER BRANCH OF THE
TRANSVERSE AGEOSTROPHIC JET CIRCULATION UNDER THE JET STREAK
ENTRANCE REGION AS THE STORM DEEPENS AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD. AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST BET FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL BE
OVER THE AREA MAINLY NORTH OF I-80...BUT WITH THE RAIN-SNOW LINE
TRANSITIONING SOUTHWARD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. BEING THAT THE BULK
OF THE STORM SHOULD BE WHAT IS CONSIDERED MY 5TH PERIOD...HAVE
OPTED TO NOT HOIST ANY HEADLINES AS YET SINCE THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE SIG SNOW IS STILL RATHER UNCERTAIN. CONCERNS FOR THE STORM ARE
BEING ADDRESSED HERE AND IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ANOTHER ASPECT OF THE UPCOMING STORM THAT COULD CAUSE CONCERN WOULD
BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING ON SOME OF OUR SMALLER STREAMS
AND CREEKS. ICE COVER IS IMMENSE THIS YEAR AND A MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN COUPLED WITH A WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS. AT THIS POINT THE
RAIN/SNOW-MELT AND ICE BREAK UP DO NOT APPEAR SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO
AFFECT LARGER RIVERS...BUT AREAS WHERE THEY HAVE ALREADY HAD ICE
JAM ISSUES NEED TO STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST UPDATES SINCE ICE
JAM FLOODING IS VIRTUALLY UNPREDICTABLE.

AFTER THE STORM...QUITE COLD AIR...AROUND -20C AT 850MB...GETS
DRIVEN INTO THE REGION ON A GUSTY NW WIND WED NIGHT INTO
THU...WITH BY FAR THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK IN STORE THURSDAY.
AS IF WE NEED MORE...TEMPS WILL AGAIN FALL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS BELOW FREEZING IN THE SOUTHEAST...AND STRUGGLING TO
APPROACH 20F ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN.
COMBINED WITH A STIFF BREEZE...WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO WILL BE
LIKELY ACROSS NW HALF OF CWA FOR A DECENT PORTION OF THE DAY.

THE WELL-BELOW NORMAL COLD WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH...AS TEMPS
REBOUND DECENTLY FRI INTO SAT...BOUNCING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS. HOWEVER THIS WINTER`S DEFINING FEATURE...THE PERSISTENT
WEST COAST RIDGE...IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER AIR TO FILTER
BACK INTO THE REGION IN PERSISTENT NW FLOW OVER PA...KEEPING TEMPS
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND PREVENTING ANY KIND OF
SIGNIFICANT WARM UP.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SW FLOW WILL BRING WARM ADVECTION THAT WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SCT
MID AND HIGH CLDS TODAY. WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10-15KT RANGE IN THE
WEST...WHILE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS IN THE EAST.

A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL PA TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. LOOKING MAINLY DRY ALONG THE FRONT.

CIG/VSBY REDUCTIONS LIKELY IN STORMY CONDITIONS ON WED. WED
MORNING SHOULD SEE MAINLY RAIN SOUTH AND SNOW IN THE N MTNS...WITH
SURGE OF COLDER AIR EDGING THE AREA OF SNOW SOUTH OF I-80 IN THE
AFTERNOON. MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL BETWEEN 12Z
WED AND 00Z THU.

STRONG NW FLOW ON THU WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS AS FAST MOVING
DEEP LOW OFF THE COAST MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. MVFR CIGS LIKELY
NW.

OUTLOOK...
TUE...AM LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS. OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD VFR.
WED...MVFR-IFR RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN AND/OR SNOW. WINDY LATE.
THU...STRONG/GUSTY NNW WINDS POSSIBLE. MVFR CIGS POSS NW.
FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SAT...REDUCTIONS POSS NW IN SCT SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY MIDWEEK RAINFALL EXPECT MODERATE
RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
STILL ENOUGH ICE IN SPOTS TO BRING ICE JAMS...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT
DECAY HAS OCCURRED AT MANY LOCATIONS. ANY ICE JAMS WILL BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE. ALL PERSONS SHOULD MONITOR WATER LEVELS
CLOSELY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...RXR
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN/RXR
HYDROLOGY...ROSS