Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 021755
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
155 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE EAST
COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VERY PLEASANT MID SPRING DAY IN PROGRESS WITH SCATTERED SHALLOW
DIURNAL CU BUILDING ABOVE THE RIDGES. A BRIGHT SUNNY AFTERNOON WILL
BE ENJOYED BY ALL. SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE GLAKS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THEY SHOULD DO LITTLE TO MAR AN OTHERWISE
FINE MID SPRING DAY. HAVE CONTINUED TO INCLUDE A VERY LOW CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OVER THE FAR SE IN WHAT IS LEFT OF A LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ZONE...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS PRETTY LOW.

HIGHS WILL MAKE TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70 TO MAKE
FOR A GREAT START TO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MAY.

SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S WILL BE CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE THE BOOKEND NICE DAY TO COMPLETE THE WEEKEND.
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AS WELL AS THE SREF AND GEFS HAVE A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY...BUT I`M HAVING A HARD TIME
JUSTIFYING THAT GIVEN THE EXPECTATIONS OF RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. I CHOSE TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE
OPERATIONAL NAM AND ECMWF WHICH KEEP IT DRY.

HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE AT LEAST AS WARM AS TODAY...PROBABLY A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER AS INDICATED BY THE GEFS/SREF MEANS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVES TRACKING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TO NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES WILL HELP PUSH A BACKDOOR-STYLE SFC COLD FRONT INTO
CENTRAL PA BY EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
ENSEMBLE DATA SHOWS ABOVE NORMAL PWS ALONG THE E-W FRONTAL ZONE
WHICH IS USUALLY A GOOD INDICATOR OF AT LEAST CLIMO OR BETTER
POPS BUT DUE TO THE N-S MDL QPF DIFFERENCES WILL UTILIZE A BLEND
AND CAP POPS AROUND THE HIGH CHC LEVEL /40-50 PCT/ FOR DAYS 3-4.

FROM THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK...THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST
BY FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE WRN PORTION OF THE E-W FRONTAL
ZONE TO BE LIFT NWD THROUGH THE OH VLY WHILE THE ERN SEGMENT
WEAKENS AND WAVERS JUST WEST/SOUTH OF THE PA AND OH/WV/MD BORDERS.
IN GENERAL THE PCPN PATTERN SHOULD BE MORE SUMMER-LIKE WITH
WEAK FORCING UNDER HIGH HEIGHTS ALOFT AND SCT DIURNAL SHOWER/ISOLD
TSTM ACTIVITY NEAR THE BNDRY AND PERHAPS INITIATING OVER THE WRN
HIGH TERRAIN. THEREFORE KEPT POPS IN THE SCHC TO LOW CHC RANGE
WED-FRI WITH GRADUAL INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE PLAINS
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT SCT CU OVER THE RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE TIME.

THERE COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLD POP SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS THIS
AFTN OVER THE LOWER SUSQ AIRFIELDS AND PERHAPS SUNDAY...BUT LEFT
THEM OUT OF THE FCST. THE MAIN CHANCE IS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS IN THE NORTH
ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...GENERALLY VFR.
TUE...VFR...WITH SHRA IN THE NORTH.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DEVOIR/MARTIN



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