Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FXUS61 KCTP 282323
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
723 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL PA
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL CARVE OUT A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS AS IT DIVES ACROSS THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...REPLACED BY A RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
40 DEWPOINTS IN KCLE AND KDAY NOW...SO THAT MUST BE BEHIND THE
FRONT. WHAT LIGHTNING WAS OCCURRING EARLIER HAS DIMINISHED TO JUST
A STRAY POSITIVE BOLT OR TWO. PRECIP CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE
NWRN COS...BUT HAS NOT MADE TOO MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS YET. EXPECT
THIS TO CHANGE AS A LITTLE WAVE SEEMS TO BE FORMING BETWEEN KUCP
AND KFKL. GUSTS ARE MUCH LOWER NOW...VS WHEN WE HAD FULL MIXING.
GUSTS IN THE 20S-L30S STILL OCCURRING JUST A LITTLE IN ADVANCE OF
THE SHOWERS. RAINFALL IS NOTHING TO FRET OVER - GENERALLY A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR SO. THE LITTLE ENHANCEMENT/CONVECTION OVER
PBZ/S NRN AREA COULD MAKE A LITTLE STRIPE OF 0.5IN AS IT SLIDES
OVER THE NWRN MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO GET PAST BLUE MTN UNTIL AFETR SUNRISE ON
WED. MOST/ALL OF THE LIGHTNING SHOULD BE OVER EARLY IN THE
OVERNIGHT. LARGER WAVE OVER THE TN VALLEY IS ON TRACK TO SLOW THE
FRONT DOWN A BIT. BUT THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT
LANCASTER CO BY EARLY AFTN.

MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A TRAILING CIRRUS DECK WILL KEEP SKIES
MCLDY WED. OVER THE NW MTNS LAKE EFFECT STRATOCU WILL ALSO BE
FORMING...AS CHILLY AIR FLOWS OVR THE STILL WARM LK ERIE. THE
CLOUD COVER AND CAA SHOULD TRANSLATE TO LITTLE WARMING FROM EARLY
AM LOWS WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL ON TRACK FOR A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEM DROPPING FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA LATE FRIDAY. THIS WILL
DELIVER A POTENT SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA. CERTAINLY SOME STRENGTH AND TIMING
ISSUES NEED TO BE RESOLVED WITH THE SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES. HOWEVER
THE LATEST EC AND THE GFS SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL
BE LATE FRIDAY THRU EARLY SATURDAY. THE NEXT QUESTION IS WILL THE
PRECIPITATION BE RAIN OR SNOW. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE A MIX OF
BOTH. THE COLDER AIR ON THE BACKSIDE WILL LIKELY CHANGE THE SHRA
TO A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WEST
AND NORTH...FOLLOWED BY BLUSTERY AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVR
THE NW MTNS. LATEST 850 MB TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A BIT TO -4C
TO -8C. SO DEPENDING IF THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES THAT SHOULD
DETERMINE HOW MUCH...IF ANY...SNOW FALLS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
EC AND GFS DIVERGE LATE THIS COMING WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS TAKING
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC BEFORE MOVING IT
NORTH...WHERE THE EC DRAGS THE LOW ALONG THE COAST. GIVEN THE
CLEAR SKIES...HOWEVER SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE COLD. EITHER
WAY...DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A WARMING
TREND WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
21Z TAFS SENT.

WATCHING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NW PA. DID SEE AN INDICATION
OF HAIL ON RADAR EARLIER.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUD CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUSTY
WINDS FROM 220 DEGREES LOCALLY 25-30KTS. COLD FRONT WITH SCT SHRA
AND ISOLD TSRA MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN PA 00Z WED. VCNTY TSTORM
IMPACTS AT KBFD.

FRONT PUSHES EAST OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MAIN PERIOD OF RAIN
SHOULD BE FROM 00-12Z WITH SHOWERS ENDING IN THE EAST BY THE AFTN.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND WX ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT.

POST FRONTAL LOW CIGS AND LAKE EFFECT SHWRS APPEAR LIKELY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER WESTERN TAFS BFD AND JST.

OUTLOOK...
THUR...MVFR CIGS WEST/VFR EAST.

FRI...VFR/MVFR EARLY WITH SHOWERS POSS WEST...BCMG MVFR/IFR FRI
NGT WITH NW WIND GUSTS 20-30 MPH AND RA/SN SHOWERS.

SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEST. VARYING VFR-
MVFR CONDS CENTRAL/EAST WITH OCNL -SHSN AND FLURRIES. NW WIND
GUSTS 25-35 MPH.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...ROSS/GARTNER/MARTIN/STEINBUGL



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