Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 181742

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1242 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2018

High pressure will build east of the area tonight. An anomalous
upper level ridge will build off the east coast next week,
bringing a mild flow of air to the state. A dying cold front
pushes into the state on Wednesday, then returns north as a
warm front late in the week.


Lots of melting going on as temperatures warm through the 30s
and into the lower 40s from north to south this afternoon.
Sfc high traverses the commonwealth this afternoon and pushes
east of the region tonight. As the high passes off the Mid
Atlantic coast tonight, and a warm front approaches from the
Ohio Valley, southerly breeze will develop and prevent temps
from dropping off much over the west. Across the east some
decoupling and deeper snowpakc will allow readings to dip lower
than guidance with lows 25-30 over my eastern counties.


Rapid increase in deep layer moisture takes place Monday as
channeled southwest flow advects higher rh into the region.
Embedded southwest 850 mb jet and advancing warm front will
focus best chance of rain over western sections, but eastern
areas will be cloudy with spits of rain and drizzle developing

Wedge of cooler air remains trapped east of the Appalachians.
Highest POPS of 90 pct are painted across the northwest
mountains, where best isentropic lift indicated at nose of low
level jet. Southern portions of the Laurels and South Central
Mountains may see late day improvement as the front lifts
northward, but ageostrophic easterly flow likely to keep clouds
in place. Western and southern areas will warm to near 50F
Monday afternoon, while the east/northeast will remain mired in
the low to mid 40s for highs.


All medium range guidance continues to show a building anomalous
upper ridge along the east coast next week, with central Pa
breaking into the warm sector Tue and Wed. Record high temps
appear quite possible Tue/Wed, when ensemble mean 850 temps
jump to around 12C. Even conservatively mixing to just 925mb
would support max temps between 70-75F over much of the area.

Both 00Z ECENS and NAEFS indicate a dying cold front will push
through the region Wed PM, accompanied by a chance of showers.
This boundary will likely stall just south of Pa before
returning north as a warm front late in the week with a renewed
chance of rain. Med range models do indicate there could be just
enough low level cold air for the potential of some fzra Thu
night or early Friday across northern Pa.


High pressure will build east across Pennsylvania later today.
Primarily VFR flying conditions expected through late tonight.
Winds will be below 8 mph through tonight.

High pressure will pass off the Mid Atlantic coast tonight as a
warm front approaches from the Ohio Valley. A developing
southerly breeze will bring LLWS in late, especially over the
western portion. This will also aid in spreading stratocu
restrictions in from the SW predawn Monday, with light rain and
more widespread restrictions prevailing during the day Monday.


Mon...Restrictions return in light rain, especially northern

Tue...Restrictions early east. Scattered rain showers and
restrictions NW.

Wed...Restrictions likely in rain showers, mainly NW half.

Thu...Restrictions probable in rain showers.




LONG TERM...Fitzgerald
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