Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 280611
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
211 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE EARLY THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT AND BRING DRY
WEATHER TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASINGLY HUMID AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE
LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
COLD FRONT NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE...AND AN UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK /100 KTS/ OVER NRN PENN EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL
COMBINE TO BRING A DUAL LAYER OF BKN STRATO CU AND CIRRUS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH DAYBREAK. TEMPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILL SLOWLY DROP THROUGH THE 60S. IT WILL REMAIN
QUITE MUGGY ACROSS THE SE ZONES WHERE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL
LINGER AROUND 70 FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
SAGS SOUTH OF THE AREA.

AN AREA OF BKN STRATO CU NESTLED BELOW THE SHALLOW SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION /AND BASED BETWEEN 3-4 KFT AGL/ WILL ADVECT ESE ACROSS
THE NRN MTNS. MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE LOWER 50S TWD SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
COOL POST-FRONTAL NW FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY OVER
MOST OF THE REGION. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT MIGHT BE THE
APPROACH OF A LOWER CLOUD DECK FROM THE N/NE AS A STRONG PORT MAX
DROPS S ACROSS NY STATE. WILL KEEP POPS UP NEAR ISOLD NUMBERS IN
THE NE...BUT NOT MENTION PRECIP QUITE YET. A SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE
IN THE NE THOUGH. MAXES WILL BE ABOUT 8-10F BELOW WEDNESDAY/S
LOFTY NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE FLOW PATTERN WILL FEATURE TROUGHING IN THE WEST
AND FAIRLY HIGH HEIGHTS FCST TO PREVAIL OVER THE EAST SUPPORTED
BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT SHOULD ANCHOR OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
RIDGE WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO CENTER OVER UPSTATE NY AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON SATURDAY. A LONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN CANADA...AND TO A NEGATIVELY
TILTING TROUGH WHICH SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST. THE
BIGGEST MOISTURE FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO STAY
NORTH OF PA.
 HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE...WITH ENOUGH FORCING
TO WARRANT INCREASING PROBABILITY/OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE SPURRED
ON BY A WARMING TREND WITH MAX TEMPS 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME SHOULD BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS SOME MODEL VARIATION SO EXPECT SOME
MODIFICATIONS AS TIME PROGRESSES. A GFS AND EC IN THE LONG RANGE
ARE ACTUALLY IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...INCLUDING THE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH THAT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS MORE DEFINED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
STATE. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ON NORTHWEST FLOW...WILL CONTINUE
TO WORK SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT.

MOST AREAS ARE CLEAR OF LOWER AND MID LVL CLDS...BUT A PATCH OF
CIRRUS IS ACROSS THE AREA.

VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE NRN VALLEYS AS THE TEMPS DROP OFF
WELL BELOW THE RIVER WATER TEMPS. BUT THERE COULD BE A LITTLE WIND
WHICH COULD IMPEDE FOG FORMATION. WILL KEEP MVFR FOG IN MOST TAFS
AND IFR FOG IN BFD FOR A FEW HRS LATE. ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO 06Z TAFS.

THE NW WINDS PICK UP AFTER SUNRISE BUT SKIES AND VIS SHOULD
QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE DAY. A LOW-
END VFR CLOUD DECK MAY DROP DOWN FROM WRN NY STATE DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HRS. FOR NOW...MOST OF THE CLDS WILL LIKELY BE AT
BFD. MID LVL WARM AIR AND LOW DEWPOINTS WORKING IN WILL LIMIT
CU OTHERWISE.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...EARLY MORNING FOG WITH RESTRICTIONS LIKELY. OTHERWISE VFR.

SAT-MON...MAINLY VFR. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN/RXR


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