Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 282145
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
545 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO THURSDAY. A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON
THURSDAY. SEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CLOSE OUT
JULY 2015 AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CU RATHER TYPICAL FOR A HOT SUMMER DAY WITH A HALF-WAY DECENT
CAP...MAINLY MDT CU BUT SOME TCU. THESE WILL LIKELY GET CHOKED
OFF BEFORE POKING ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CAP TO THE NORTH OF THE
TURNPIKE. THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE AREA WILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND LESS OF A CAP THAT VERY ISOLD CU MAY GROW TALL ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A SHOWER. WILL LEAVE MINIMAL POP IN THERE THROUGH SUNSET.

ALL CU SHOULD BE DYING AT OR EVEN A LITTLE BEFORE SUNSET. SKY
COVER OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE NIL WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
EVENTUAL VALLEY FOG - MAINLY IN THE NORTH. THE DEWPOINTS MAY BE
LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH LIKE
WE SAW TUES MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BUT DEWPOINTS DO NOT DRY
OUT ALL THAT MUCH FROM TUES. TEMPS WILL BE THE STORY FOR WED...AS
MAXES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 90F IN THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND FAR
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE ELEVATIONS AND MORE-SHALLOW MIXING THERE
SHOULD KEEP THE MAXES BARELY BELOW 90F OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.
THE HIGHEST ELEVS IN THE LAURELS ARE THE PLACE TO GO IN PA TO BEST
AVOID THE HEAT. WITH THE DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE 60S AND U50S WE
SHOULD KEEP FROM GOING INTO HEAT ADVY VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
CROSSING THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SPC HAS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA IN A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK ON
THURSDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND...UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PRODUCE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY GENERATE A FEW SHRA/TSRA ACROSS MAINLY N/W PA ON SATURDAY.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED
FROM FRI-SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATE NORMALS HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WIDESPREAD VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE SOME FOG
BEGINS TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO GO
MVFR...WITH SERN TERMINALS HAVING A BETTER CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR FOR
A BRIEF TIME AROUND SUNRISE.

VFR/SUNNY FOR WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CLOUDS START TO
ADVANCE/LOWER/THICKEN WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPCHS FROM THE
WEST. SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MAY NUDGE INTO BFD BEFORE
SUNRISE THUR. CFROPA STILL ON TRACK FOR A DAYTIME TRAVERSE ACROSS
THE CWA. THUS...SHRA/TSRA MAY NOT BE AROUND ALL DAY IN THE
WEST...AND MORNING STABILITY MAY BE TOO HIGH TO ALLOW FOR TSRA
THERE. TIMING OF EXIT OF FRONT IS LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR 2+ DAYS.

OUTLOOK...

THU...CFROPA W/VERY BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO SH/TSRA.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...DANGELO/LA CORTE


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