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000
FXUS61 KCTP 300343
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1043 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER/ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A NEW
STORM IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MID LVL SHORTWAVE LIFTING THRU CENTRAL PA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA AS OF 03Z. BACK EDGE OF THE
DEEP MOISTURE/SIG PRECIP W/THIS FEATURE IS PUSHING INTO THE
CENTRAL MTNS AT 03Z AND NEAR TERM MDLS INDICATE IT WILL BE EXITING
THE EASTERN COUNTIES ARND 06Z. HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WINT WX
ADVISORY ACROSS THE SC MTNS/LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE LATEST HRRR
AND 4KM NAM SOUNDINGS NOW LOOK TOO COLD TO SUPPORT FZRA. WILL
MENTION ONLY SCT -SHSN IN THIS AREA OVERNIGHT IN ASSOC WITH COLD
FRONT PASSAGE.

ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...LGT SNOW IS LIKELY TO LAST THRU
LATE MORNING...AIDED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD
OF SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVING SE FROM THE GRT LKS. MDL-BLENDED QPF
SUPPORTS ADDITIONAL ACCUMS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU BTWN
03Z-12Z OF ARND 1 INCH. DOWNSLOPING FLOW EAST OF THE MTNS SHOULD
RESULT IN LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUM BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD PUSH THRU THE CENTRAL MTNS BTWN 04Z-05Z AND
EXIT THE EASTERN COUNTIES BTWN 07Z-08Z.

HAVE TWEAKED SNOWFALL TOTALS IN OUR GRIDDED FORECASTS...BASED ON
SFC REPORTS AND LATEST GUIDANCE. LOOKS LIKE ARND 4 INCHES ACROSS
THE NW MTNS...TO LESS THAN AN INCH FROM HARRISBURG SOUTHWARD.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE WRN
MTNS...TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FRIDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND COLD DAY AS ARCTIC AIR PAYS A
RETURN VISIT. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE USUAL WESTERN
AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN WITH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
PROBABLY SEEING LITTLE MORE THAN SOME STRAY FLURRIES.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY PEAK EARLY AND EITHER STAY STEADY OR FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
OVER WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY AS WINDS BECOME
GUSTY BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TOOK OUT MENTION OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT...FLOW TOO NORTHERLY.

WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL PA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL AROUND
14Z. STILL MAINLY 3RD PERIOD...WILL HOLD OFF AN ADVISORY
FOR NOW.

SATURDAY LOOKS SUNNY BUT ON THE COLD SIDE.

SOME CHC OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING SE. HAVE
LOW CHC IN EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE FAR WEST.

MODELS STILL SHOW POTENTIAL FOR A LOW MOVING JUST SOUTH
OF PA LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THUS LEFT SNOW IN
THE FCST. DID SOME MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS. MAIN THING WAS
TO CUT BACK POPS ACROSS THE NW EARLY MONDAY. NOT SEEING
A LOT OF POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT LATE MONDAY...FLOW TOO
NORTHERLY. THUS MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS MONDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS.

MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER LOW TRACKING NEAR THE AREA ON WED.
HAVE LOW END POPS FOR SNOW. MORE COLD AIR BEHIND THAT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AS SNOW OVERSPREADS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST.

SNOW WILL BEGIN SHORTLY IN BRADFORD. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP RAPIDLY WITH THE SNOW...SPREADING EAST 18-00Z. SOUTHERN
TIER TERMINALS FROM JST-AOO EAST INTO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET AS THE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS.

REDUCED CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT...AROUND 03Z FRIDAY OVER THE WEST. MORE LIKE
06-09Z OVER THE SERN AREAS. THE CONDITIONS AT BFD AND JST WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SUN...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STORM MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.

MON...REDUCED CONDS EARLY IN SNOW SHOWERS. IMPROVING FROM WEST TO
EAST AFTERNOON ONWARD.

TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010-011-017-024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER