Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KCTP 200245
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1045 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS BY JUST SOUTH OF PA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A NEW LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP BREEZY AND WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA INTO WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF CIRRUS AND CIRROSTRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO
COVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS WAS SPREADING ESE ACROSS THE STATE
WELL AHEAD OF A SFC WARM FRONT...LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE/S 300 MB RH SHOWS THE BULK OF THE
HIGH CLOUDS FOCUSED OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENN BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK. THIS AREA OF CLOUDS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY CURB
THE TEMP DROP BY AT LEAST A FEW DEG F LATER TONIGHT...BUT PERHAPS
NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT AREAS OF FROST FROM FORMING VERY EARLY
MONDAY...AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.

NORTHERN PA MAY SEE SOME FROST /AND POCKETS OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AS THE NRN EDGE OF THE HIGH CLOUD SHIELD SHIFTS
SOUTH TWD I-80 AFTER 09Z/. HOWEVER THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED
ACROSS THIS AREA.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL MTNS...TO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE SW ZONES WHERE THE
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE THICKEST AND LAST THE LONGEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SW FLOW AND WAA ON MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE WILL BRING US A
MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY. AFTER A CHILLY START...HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 50S WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. APPROACHING
WAVE/COOL FRONT MAY KICK OFF SOME SCT SHOWERS IN THE NW LATER IN
THE DAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNUSUALLY HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IS LEADING
TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE OVERWHELMINGLY DOMINANT MAIN FEATURE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CUT-OFF...MEANDERING UPPER LOW AND
IT/S REFLECTION/MINI-ME AT THE SFC. THE DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE ON
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SECONDARY LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/COAST. THE SYSTEM WILL ONLY
SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING
IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH FROM TUES INTO
WED...AND PERHAPS THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE
STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE IN THE WRN MTNS
WILL KEEP SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING MID-WEEK. WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND WIND...THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY SNOW ARE DIM. 8H
TEMPS GENERALLY STAY WELL ABOVE ZERO. BUT TUES NIGHT/WED AM MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH OVER THE LAURELS TO HAVE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH THE
SHOWERS ON THE HIGHEST ELEVS. HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE OUT MENTIONS
OF ANY MIX AT THIS POINT. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR IS SHUNTED TO
OUR SOUTH WITH HELP FROM THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH
KEEPS THAT MARITIME AIR WRAPPING IN TO THE AREA.

EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE
COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY PRODUCE WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN
DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING
DIMINISHING WIND AND WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS. NOT CONCERNED ABOUT FOG
TONIGHT...DUE TO HIGH CLOUD SHIELD WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

FOCUS ON MONDAY WILL SHIFT TOWARD COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
GRT LKS. SCT SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE W
MTNS LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS APPEAR LIKELY
TO PERSIST THRU DUSK. DETERIORATING FLYING CONDS /ESP W MTNS/
EXPECTED MON NIGHT...AS SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ019-025>028-
034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.