Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 220928
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
528 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be very comfortable for much of the upcoming week. The
next chance for rain won`t be until Thursday or Friday when a
rather weak cold front slides southeast across the state.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Showers are gone from earlier push of dry air. Just a few speckles
on radar over LE and ne OH. The shra there seem to be connected
somewhat to LSC (Lake St Clair). I find it fascinating/interesting
to see some lake-induced/enhanced showers at this point in the
year. Instability must have been high there at that point, and it
has only gotten colder over the lake since then. 8H temps in the
upper single digits over nw PA, and this makes about a 30+F
difference in the lowest 5kft. Lake- induced CAAPEs are calculated
by BUFKIT above 2000 Joules! Saw pictures of waterspouts on the
lake shore from two different sources yesterday, and these
numbers are in line with making other `spouts. KCLE has statements
up to that effect for today as well. The latest near term guid
still lingers a few showers in the NW and perhaps into the Laurels
early this morning as the moisture and upslope flow combine to
increase clouds there. The sky should clear up almost entirely
before noon as the subsidence takes over and mixing clears things
up. No fog right now, as the temps are chasing the dewpoints down
the hole. Still, there may be a little around sunrise in the river
valleys where water temps are running in the m60s-m70s. Max temps
today will be cooler than recently at about 3-5F lower than
yesterday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
Clear sky tonight with the giant high pressure system over the
entire eastern CONUS. Temps will be dropping into the 40s in the
north and mainly 50s in the rest of the area. Rural spots in the
SE may be near 50F as well. Fog is almost a given, but the wind
could stay up just a little all night which may hinder fog
formation. Will keep going with the fog and low cloud cover in the
valleys with the climatological peak of valley fog season nearing.
The big high will be right overhead for Tuesday morning but could
be off to the east just enough to bring in return flow and help
temps go back up about 10F higher than Monday in the NW. SErn
sections will stay very close to Monday temps, but will have a
25-30F diurnal swing.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Have adjusted the timing of the bell-curve of higher POPs a
little nearer in time as most guidance now places the front over
the area on Thursday/Night instead of Friday as it did 24 hours
ago.

Prev...
Cooler, drier air will advect into the region bringing a long
period of precipitation-free weather through most of next week.
The next period of active weather will come as an upper level
trough moves into the region Thursday night into Friday. A front
with +1 to 2 STD/anomalous PWATS progress through Friday. That
should correspond with a passing but possibly weakening/shearing
cold front. Dry air under high pressure is expected for next
weekend.

The week will start off cooler due to the northwesterly flow but
will gradually warm as the week continues with temperatures
slightly above normal through the second half of the week. What
will also make this week feel cooler is the lack of humidity as
dewpoints will be in the 50s through most of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Widespread VFR conds early this morning will give way to
MVFR cigs over parts of the region as moisture from the Great
Lakes will spreads south into the region overnight. Model
soundings even suggest IFR cigs are possible early Monday morning
at KJST, where northwest flow is forced to ascend the higher
terrain of the Laurel Highlands. At KBFD, a diminishing wind and
partial clearing could potentially result in a period of fog btwn
09Z-12Z.

Any lower cigs/fig across Western Pa will mix out shortly after
12Z and there is a high confidence of VFR across the entire region
for the rest of Monday, as high pressure builds over the state.

Outlook...

Tue-Wed...Patchy AM fog possible, esp KBFD/KIPT.

Thu...Isold pm tsra impacts possible w mtns.

Fri...AM low cigs possible w mtns.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KCCX radar was activated in order to monitor the active
weather on Sunday. Radome painting is not yet complete.
Therefore, the radar will likely be taken off line during the
expected benign weather stretch today+ to allow the work to be
completed. The work will likely be completed in a day or two.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Dangelo/Ceru
AVIATION...Fitzgerald/Gartner
EQUIPMENT...



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