Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 040242
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1042 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS RAIN OVERSPREADING CENTRAL PA IN REGION
OF WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. NEAR TERM
MDL DATA AND RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT RAISING POPS TO NR 100 PCT
OVERNIGHT OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA...AS MUCH HIGHER PWATS SURGE
NORTHWARD ALONG SOUTHERLY LL JET IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE.

MAIN FCST CONCERN OVERNIGHT/EARLY SAT IS POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...WHERE MDLS PLACE THE
HIGHEST PWATS ALONG AXIS OF INVERTED SFC TROUGH.
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MDLS INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HVY
RAINFALL WITH SPOT AMTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. ALTHOUGH NO TSRA
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF PA AT 02Z...STILL SUSPECT THERE COULD BE
SOME EMBEDDED TSRA ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES TOWARD DAWN AS LG SCALE
FORCING MAXES OUT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE AND MDLS SHOW SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY.

GIVEN THE WET GROUND...WILL ADD MENTION OF POSSIBLE FLOODING
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE HWO AND MONITOR CLOSELY FOR
POSSIBLE FFA. MDL BLENDED COUNTY-WIDE AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD
RANGE FROM CLOSE TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES...TO ARND 0.25
INCHES ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. BLEND OF SREF/GEFS OUTPUT SUPPORTS
OVERNIGHT POPS RANGING FROM NR 100 PCT ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU/CENTRAL MTNS...TO ARND 70 PCT EAST OF THE SUSQ RIVER.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE TYPICAL FOR EARLY JULY...RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S N MTNS TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW HAS IT
MOVING OFF THE NJ COAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. WHILE
THIS BODES WELL FOR THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF AND CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY BE HARD TO SCOUR OUT...KEEPING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE MAINLY
CLOUDY AND COOL. MDLS DO INDICATE SOME BRIGHTENING IS LIKELY
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES BY AFTN. HEATING/DESTABILIZTION IN
THIS REGION COULD SUPPORT A FEW PM TSRA ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES AND
SC MTNS.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS...WITH LITTLE
CHC OF ANY RAIN BY SUNSET.

HIGHS ON THE 4TH WILL BE COOL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WILL AVERAGE SOME 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR EAST BY SAT NIGHT...WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING TO OUR SOUTH. THAT WILL KEEP JUST VERY LOW POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILL BE NEAR NORMALS WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND...WHILE MORE SUN
IN THE NORTH WILL ALLOW MAXS TO PEAK A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY CEDE TO A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF PA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC
FOR RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT CONVECTION RETURNS MON-TUE AS WEAK RETURN
FLOW KICKS IN. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY THIS WEEK.

LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE WESTERLY FLOW WITH TOUGH TO TIME SHORTWAVES
SLIDING ACROSS KEEPING MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES ONGOING. TEMPS SLIP
BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME MINOR CHANGES MADE TO 00Z TAFS...MAINLY AT BFD AND JST.
JST HAS MVFR CIGS ALREADY.

LOOKED BACK ON LAST NIGHT. MAIN SITES THAT HAD FOG AND LOW
CIGS WERE AOO AND JST. SOME AT TIMES AT LNS.

THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
REDUCED CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING INTO AT LEAST EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATER
SATURDAY...BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD HANG TOUGH KEEPING
CEILINGS MVFR OR LOWER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE IMPROVEMENT BEGINS TO
DEVELOP.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...DID BRING IN SOME IMPROVEMENT IN BY LATE AFT.
THIS BASED ON TIME OF DAY AND STRONG JULY SUN. HOWEVER...SOMETHING
TO WATCH. CONDITIONS COULD GO BACK DOWNHILL AGAIN AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...BECOMING VFR. NO SIG WX.

MON-TUE...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDER. MAINLY
SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

WED...MAINLY VFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN


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