Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 160906
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
506 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS. A STRING OF MAINLY DRY
SUNNY DAYS...AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY...CHILLY NIGHTS WILL
FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE. &&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK...1016 MB SFC LOW WAS CENTERED INVOF KIPT AT 08Z WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD THROUGH THE KPIT AREA. UPPER DYNAMICS
LIFTING NE OF THE REGION AND MOISTURE-CHALLENGED LLVLS WERE HELPING
TO CHEW UP THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WILL BE
LOWERING POPS AND QPF IN ALL AREAS THIS MORNING...AND PAINT A
QUICKER...STAGE RIGHT EXIT TO THE SHOWERS.

AS LLVL WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE NW LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...EXPECT A QUICK IMPROVING TREND IN MOST LOCATIONS.
UPSLOPE STRATUS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE LATE MORNING ACRS THE
LAURELS AND NW MTNS...MAINLY TO THE WEST OF ROUTE 219. THE BULK OF
THE FCST AREA - SE OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WILL SEE A STEADY
EROSION OF THE CLOUDS WITH MSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED AFTER 16Z.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY RANGING FROM THE L-M 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO THE L-M 70S IN THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY WILL BE ABOUT 2-3 DEG F BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FROST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY /AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW
LOCATIONS WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING/ ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS.

LATEST...00Z MAV NUMBERS AND 08Z GFS LAMP GUIDANCE REMAIN AT THE
COLDER END OF ALL GUIDANCE...AND HAVE BFD RIGHT AROUND 32. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...ALONG WITH HIGH HEIGHTS AND LOW
DEWPOINTS /WITH PWS AOB 0.50 INCH/ WILL BE THE MAIN CULPRITS
LEADING TO THE POSSIBLE FROST UP NORTH.

ELSEWHERE...TEMPS WILL BE CHILLY...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
SEE TEMPS SETTLE INTO THE U30S AND 40S BY SUNRISE WED.

AN EAST/WEST RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION AND OHIO VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...LIGHT WIND...AND AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS OVER QUEBEC WED NIGHT/THU...PUSHING A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARD PA ON THU. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS IT EDGES SOUTHWARD...BUT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE
OVERHEAD FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
COVER ALONG WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A SPRINKLE. NORTHERN PA WILL
GET A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO A 1030MB
HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND BY FRI...BRINGING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S ARE
LIKELY THU NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY /ESPECIALLY IF SKIES CLEAR OUT AS
ANTICIPATED/.

00Z GEFS AND 03Z SREF TEMP PLUMES SUGGEST THAT THE SCATTERED
FROST THREAT MAY EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEYS...AND EVEN INTO
THE TYPICALLY COLD RURAL LOCATIONS OF SCENT PENN. THE HIGH TEMPS
FRI WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S AS NW FLOW CONTINUES.

RETURN FLOW BEGINS WEAKLY FRI NIGHT...TAKING A LITTLE OF THE BITE
OUT OF OVERNIGHT LOWS /THOUGH STILL CHILLY WITH READINGS MAINLY IN
THE 40S/. BUT THIS WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS SAT INTO SUN WILL BE 5-8F WARMER THAN FRI...WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 80F IN THE SE. LOWS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER AS WELL
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW.

HEADING INTO SUNDAY...DEEPENING LOW CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTH
AS A TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MODELS STILL SHOWING LARGE
DIFFERENCES ON EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH GFS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND ECMWF ACTUALLY BRINGING A SECOND WAVE AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH AND DEVELOPING A STUBBORN CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE REGION. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND HOLD ON TO
MENTION OF SHOWERS INTO MON ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR
AND SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT OVER NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH NW PA. RAIN SHOWERS ARE
HEAVY AT TIMES...PRODUCING IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT BFD. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 09Z. REDUCTIONS ACROSS THE REST
OF THE STATE ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH OUTSIDE OF BFD THEY SHOULD
MVFR. THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THEIR EASTWARD TREK...AND SOME
SHOWER FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER SUSQ BEFORE
SUNRISE. THE WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER 13Z...AND
AFTER THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME VFR. AT THE VERY
LATEST BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS PROBABLE...THOUGH MAX
GUSTS SHOULDN`T EXCEED 20MPH. ANY GUSTY WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE
AROUND SUNSET...WITH MILDER...VFR CONDITIONS SETTLING IN THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG TUESDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER


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