Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 192315
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
715 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING
AS MUCH DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE COMMONWEALTH BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT CLEARING THE EASTERN PA BORDER PRESENTLY. UPDATED EARLY TO
REMOVE POPS OVER THE EAST.

VISIBLE LOOP INDICATES EXTENSIVE STRATUS CROSSING THE EASTERN
GLAKS AND INTO NORTHWEST PA. EXPECT SCT-BKN SKIES NORTHWEST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. LOWS CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS THE EVENING WEARS ON...BUT SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY...WHILE
THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS CLEAR.

CLOUDS IN THE NW WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS UP IN THE U30S ON THE NW
PLATEAU AND OTHER AREAS WILL FALL TO THE 40S AND L50S. URBAN AREAS
IN THE SE MAY HOLD NEAR 55F DESPITE THE CLEAR SKY DUE TO THE WINDS
STAYING UP FOR MOST/ALL OF THE NIGHT AND KEEPING THE BLYR WELL-
MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
PRESSURE RISES AND SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN FROM THE NW BUT WINDS WILL
STILL BE NW AND RATHER GUSTY DURING THE DAY ON WED AS CENTER OF
SFC HIGH STAYS WELL TO THE WEST. MIXING SHOULD ALLOW GUSTS INTO
THE 20S OR EVEN NEAR 30 MPH. MAXES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN
TUES...BUT THE MID/LATE MAY SUN/HEATING WILL ALLOW US TO MIX WELL
ABOVE 8H TEMPS. SO EVEN THOUGH MORNING 8H TEMPS WILL BE -2C IN THE
NRN TIER AND ONLY +2C IN THE SRN TIER...WE SHOULD STILL GET BACK
TO THE M50S N AND NEAR 70F IN THE SERN CITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY ESEWD FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC STATES THU-FRI WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THU. A WEAK SFC LOW IS FCST TO EMERGE OFF THE
CAROLINAS INTO FRIDAY WITH SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...OWING TO
VARIABILITY IN THE HANDLING OF THE PARENT SHORTWAVE. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR. CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE
FOR FROST THU MORNING IN THE NORTH AS THE PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK
FAVORABLE OR CONDUCIVE.

CONFIDENCE IN FROST POTENTIAL IS MUCH HIGHER ON SATURDAY MORNING
OVER THE NORTH-CNTRL ZONES WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
FCST TO SETTLE OVER CENTRAL PA. MAINTAINED FROST WORDING IN SOME
NORTHERN ZONES. DRY WX SHOULD HOLD ON UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN OVER THE ERN U.S.

AN E-W FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BECOME A FOCUS FOR PCPN MON-TUE
AS IT PIVOTS AND LIFTS NWD IN A SIMILAR FASHION TO THIS PAST
WEEKEND. ALL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH EVEN MILDER AND MORE MUGGY CONDITIONS STARTING
MEMORIAL DAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED MY EASTERN ZONES LEAVING MOST SITES VFR
AND WITH AND A GUSTY WNW WIND. A SHIELD OF MVFR CEILINGS HAS MOVED
INTO THE NW MOUNTAINS...AND WILL KEEP CEILINGS IN THE 1500-4000`
RANGE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. THE LOWER CEILINGS MAY
CREEP AS FAR SOUTH AS JOHNSTOWN...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
SHOULD STAY VFR.

THE GUSTY WIND IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 15-25 KT ABATE ONLY SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN WED TO 15-25 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...NO SIG WX.

SUN...MAINLY VFR...MVFR POSS IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE



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