Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FXUS61 KCTP 201931
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
231 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

An extended period of mild weather with well above normal
temperatures is expected through the end of the week. A weak
cool front will push through the state late Tuesday and Tuesday
night. A stronger cold front is expected for Friday into
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Other than a few thin high clouds floating by, we have another
bright-sunny late winter`s day in progress with temperatures
more reminiscent of early April.

High pressure at the surface building to our north will help
cooler air ooze down into the region, so while we will remain
much warmer than normal, we will be a tad cooler than the last
couple of days.

It will remain fair and dry overnight with lows dropping back
into the 20s and 30s. But still some 10-15 deg above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...

A weakening front and the associated shearing upper shortwave
will bring increasing clouds to the area Tuesday. Should the
cloud cover not be as widespread or thick as expected, highs
could easily be several deg warmer than current projections.
Otherwise it will not be a bad day overall. Showers will be slow
to move east, leaving a dry day for the bulk of the region. The
exception is the far NW where it could rain toward dusk.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Gradually milder temperatures will return for the extended
period as no genuine cold air push is in sight. High
temperatures in general will be 10 to 20 degrees above normal
with min temperatures mainly above freezing.

Upper ridge axis is forecast to be located east of the state
Tuesday night. The weak cold frontal boundary will produce a
brief period or two of showers for late Tuesday (Northwest) and
over the Central and Eastern parts of PA Tuesday night into the
mid morning hours of Wednesday.

Clouds associated with this weak frontal boundary will help to
suppress temps a bit (but they`ll still remain well above
average).

The flow turns back to the SW by Wednesday causing temps to
rebound.

The overall, large-scale pattern becomes more amplified late in
the week as a system over the central plains deepens and lifts
into the Great Lakes. Clouds will increase Thursday and Friday
with warm front lifting through, and bringing increasing rain
chances heading into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Widespread VFR will continue into Tuesday with surface winds
generally 10kt or less, generally out of the NW for the rest of
today, becoming light and variable overnight.

A weakening cold front could bring rain showers and reduced
conditions to NW PA by nightfall Tuesday, otherwise VFR and
a light wind will continue.

Outlook...

Wed...A.M. sub-VFR possible NW 1/3; otherwise VFR/no Sig Wx.

Thu...Sub-VFR possible with chance rain showers.

Fri...Sub-VFR possible with rain showers likely Friday night.
LLWS probable.

Sat...strong cold to bring Sub-VFR and possible thunderstorms.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Summary of record highs from 2/18 and 2/19...

Harrisburg: Record high of 69 degrees on 2/19. Previous record
high was 66 degrees set back in 1997.

Williamsport: Record high of 69 degrees on 2/19. Previous
record high was 60 degrees set back in 1997

Altoona: Record highs of 64 degrees on 2/19 and 66 degrees on
2/18 (tie). Previous record highs were 61 in 1994 (2/19) and 66
in 1981 (2/18).

Bradford: Record high of 62 degrees on 2/18. Previous record
high was 56 degrees set back in 1994.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte
SHORT TERM...La Corte
LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner
AVIATION...La Corte
CLIMATE...



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