Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 260400
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1200 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE MICHIGAN WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND OVER NRN PA/WRN NY STATE ON
TUESDAY. IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND
TO THE SOUTH OF THE COMMONWEALTH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
NICE CELL W/THUNDER AND PERHAPS A WIND GUST TO 30-35MPH IN IT
ROLLING THRU ELK CO. THIS MAY BE THE MCV OF THE CURRENT CLUSTER OF
SH/TSRA AS IT SEEMS TO HAVE A VERY BROAD ROTATION TO IT. FORECAST
IS ROLLING ALONG NICELY...TOO. EXPECT THINGS TO MAINTAIN OR WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AS THEY MAY START TO FEED MORE OFF OF THE VERY DRY LLVL
AIR OVER CENTRAL PA RATHER THAN THE UPSTREAM /SW/ VALUES WHICH ARE
INTO THE 50S. SHOWERS DO STRETCH BACK INTO NRN OH AS EXPECTED AND
WILL PLAY SOME CHC POPS ACROSS THE NRN TIER FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN VERY MILD OVERNIGHT.

PREV...
A FEW CLOUD FLASHES AND CGS INSIDE THE CONVECTION OVER CRAWFORD
CO...SO FEEL SAFE LEAVING MENTIONS OF THUNDER IN FOR THE NIGHT.
GOOD INFLOW FROM THE SW TO THESE SHOWERS - BUT THE DEWPOINTS ARE
ONLY 45-50F OVER SRN OH/SWRN PA. WITH THE QUICK MOTION AND LOW
MOISTURE - THESE SHOULD NOT EVEN MAKE HEAVY RAIN FOR MORE THAN A
MINUTE AT ANY LOCATION. HOWEVER...REPEATED CELLS PASSING OVERHEAD
COULD TAKE QPF INTO THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH ACROSS THE NRN TIER
BY MORNING. HRR AND RAP PROPAGATE THE FIRST BATCH OF PRECIP TO
THE EAST STEADILY. A SECOND AND PERHAPS  THIRD WAVE OF
SHOWERS/TSTORMS IS FCST TO DEVELOP OVER NRN OH AND CROSS THE STATE
- MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 - LIKELY SKIRTING DRY/HAPPY
VALLEY.

PREV...
TRANSLUCENT MID LEVEL DECK INCREASING OVER CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE AND OPAQUE CLOUDINESS RESIDE
NORTH OF THE PA/NY BORDER...AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
SUNNY THROUGH THE THINK MID/HIGH CLOUD DECK. TEMPS QUITE WARM AND
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S THROUGH THE 70S ELSEWHERE.

HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN GLAKS. POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC LL JET WILL BRING
A GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. STILL TIMING BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
BETWEEN 02Z TO 10Z TIMEFRAME. DIMINISHING CHC OF SHOWERS LINGERS
AFTERWARDS AS FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH.

NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS MAY SEE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A THIRD
OF AN INCH OF RAIN...OUTLIERS NEAR ONE HALF...WHICH IS MUCH NEEDED
GIVEN RECENT DRYNESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SFC FRONTAL WAVE TRACKS ALONG THE PA/NY BORDER TUESDAY MORNING...
BEFORE SAGGING SOUTHWARD AS COLD FRONT SETTLES ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH. EXTREME SOUTHERN TIER REMAINS IN SPC MRGL OUTLOOK
WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH CAPE TO PRODUCE A STRONG STORM OR TWO BEFORE
THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE TUE AFTERNOON.
MODELS SHOWING LOCAL PREFRONTAL 1000 J/KG CAPES IN THIS ALONG THE
MASON DIXON LINE TUE MORNING/AFTN.

COOL AIR REACHES THE NORTHWEST EARLY TUE...WITH HIGHS THERE ONLY
REACHING NEAR 60F. FARTHER SOUTH ANOTHER WARM DAY WILL BE SEEN
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR ONE MORE DAY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THIS PART OF THIS PACKAGE.

STILL LOOKS DRY ON WED...AS A NE FLOW OF DRY AIR BUILDS SOUTHWARD
FROM A LARGE HIGH OVER WESTERN HUDSON BAY.

A SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THU WILL BRING SOME RAIN
AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.

A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA OUT OF WV MAY
BRING SOME SHOWERS STILL ON FRIDAY. LEFT POPS IN.

STILL SOME HINTS OF A JET MAX DROPPING SE ON SAT...BUT REALLY
NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THUS STILL EXPECT THE DAY TO BE DRY.

MID SHIFT HAD SOME SHOWERS IN FOR LATER ON SUNDAY. YESTERDAY THE
EC WAS TOO FAST...STILL THAT WAY TODAY. LEFT POPS IN BUT DID LOWER
SOME FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT..DID EDGE TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE.

LOOKS WET AND COOL FOR MONDAY. DID NOT GO QUITE AS HIGH AS
THE SUPERBLEND WITH THE POPS.

CLEARING OUT LATER MONDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL A PATTERN THAT FAVORS WETTER AND COOLER WEATHER
THAN WE HAVE HAD LATELY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD...HOWEVER THE
STORMS CONTINUE TO FADE AS THEY REACH THE DRIER AIR TO THE EAST.
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER PERIOD OF STORMS OVERNIGHT TOWARDS THE
MORNING...ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AROUND 09Z. THAT LINE WILL BRING
MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR CIGS TO BFD...JST...UNV AND AOO. WITH MVFR
POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE TAF SITES. THOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL BE
DRIER AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN TAF SITES. THERE STILL
REMAINS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN PA TUE
AFTERNOON. THE OTHER AVIATION CONCERN IS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OUT
AHEAD OF THE LINE...AND HAVE PUT LLWS FOR AOO...JST...BFD AND UNV
BETWEEN 09Z TO 14Z.

OUTLOOK...

WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

THU-FRI...MVFR WITH SHRA LIKELY.

SAT...FAIR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/CERU



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