Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 022149
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
549 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGIONAL
WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SEVERAL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE RADAR. BEEN
ADJUSTING THE FCST AS NEEDED.

A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL TRACK ACROSS WV THIS AFT.
HIRES ENSEMBLES SHOW ISOLATED NON-SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE WARM/HUMID AIRMASS OVER WRN PA /NEAR THE SPINE OF THE
ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL HIGHLANDS SWD INTO THE WV-MD PANHANDLES/
PARTICULARLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS AFTN. HIGHEST POPS ARE
OVER SW PA COUNTIES PER MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. ANY PCPN SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DISORGANIZED AND WANE/DISSIPATE INTO TONIGHT WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING.

NOTHING SEVERE...STRONGER STORMS SOUTH OF PA AS OF 2 PM.
DID ISSUE A SPS...VIL STILL BELOW 60.

EXPECT ACTION TO DIE OFF BY 22-23Z...GIVEN VERY WARM AIR ALOFT.

MORE FOG LKLY OVERNIGHT WITH NIGHTTIME MINS A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER ON THE WHOLE.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS TONIGHT. DID UP TEMPS A
DEGREE...AND EXTEND FOG OUT PAST 12Z THU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD FROM NEW YORK INTO PA ON THURSDAY
SHOULD INITIATE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION PER MODEL CONSENSUS AS
IT ENCOUNTERS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC.
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER IS LOW AS THERE IS STILL SOME
SPREAD NOTED IN QPF DETAILS WHICH APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED VORTICITY MAXIMA LOCATED UPSTREAM. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 20-30 POPS DURING THE DAY AND DROP MENTION
OVERNIGHT. WE ARE IN THE CLIMO FAVORED FOG SEASON /AUG-SEP/ SO
WITH LGT/VRB WINDS...CLEARING AND RELATIVELY HIGH BLYR MSTR WOULD
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF FOG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THIS PERIOD. VERY MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
PA/MD LINE ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO S-CENTRAL PA
BASED ON A BLEND OF SHORT TERM MDL DATA.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL SINK SWD THRU NRN NEW ENGLAND
LATER FRIDAY AND TAKE CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN A BIT TO END THE WEEK BUT
STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WX
PATTERN OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
CONTINUATION OF WARMER-THAN-AVG TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE STABLE RIDGING PATTERN IN THE EAST MAY
BREAK DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LEAD COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES NEXT TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

SCATTERED CONVECTION POPPING UP RANDOMLY OVER THE SWRN HALF OF THE
FLYING AREA WILL DIE OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. UNTIL THEN ANY
TERMINAL THAT GETS AFFECTED BY THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD SEE A BRIEF
BUT RAPID DROP TO IFR...AND AN EQUALLY RAPID IMPROVEMENT BACK TO
VFR ONCE THE STORM PASSES BY.

EXPECT MORE FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THU...GIVEN THE AIRMASS IN
PLACE.

NO REAL CHANGE SEEN IN THE LATE SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT
WEEK.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-MON...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH A
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN SPOTS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN


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