Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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930
FXUS61 KCTP 240333
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1133 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A mainly dry cold front will pass through overnight. Fair weather
with seasonably cooler temperatures is expected over the weekend.
Another cold front will push through early in the new week and
could make some rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A very weak and moisture starved cold front extends east-west
just south of a line from Wellsboro to Bradford and westward. The
front will continue south through the region overnight with just
a small chance of a shower, mainly over the area north of I-80.

Overnight lows will drop into the mid 40s over the northern
mountains, and range to about 60 along the Mason-Dixon line.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Model data pushes cold front all the way through central PA
tonight. But, without upper level support or even moderate
moisture, we expect a mainly dry fropa for much of the area.
Although cooler air will begin flowing in on a northerly breeze,
that band of clouds along and just behind the front will keep
things mild tonight - especially over the south - with mins
between u40s in the northern mtns to around 60F in the south. If
winds drop off to near calm across the north, could see some late
night valley fog, while an active northerly breeze precludes fog
issues elsewhere. Will not mention fog for tonight quite yet.

The clouds should dissipate/slide southward Saturday morning and
leave a mostly sunny day. Maxes will be about 10F cooler than
Friday - right about normal to very slightly above normal. Sunday
morning looks almost certain for fog in the valleys as temps drop
another 10F from Sat AM and the air will be calm. Only the dryness
of the airmass could preclude fog, but am fairly certain of fog.
Sunday is another wonderful but dry day. The maxes may be a few
degs cooler than Sat in the south, and may actually turn out sub-
normal there. But similar and normal maxes will occur elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure north of area will bring clear skies and seasonable
temperatures Saturday night and Sunday. Clouds increase Monday
ahead of significant cold front headed our way. This front will
bring much needed rainfall Monday night and the first part of
Tuesday. After front pushes through on Tuesday dry weather returns
again with temperatures staying close to seasonal norms with a
slow warming trend each day.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low cigs cover the northern Mtns of Pa at 03Z, the result of
abundant low level moisture combined with upslope northerly flow
behind this evening`s cold front. Model soundings and upstream obs suggest
IFR/LIFR cigs remain likely at KBFD until at least 07Z, after
which the arrival of some drier air will likely result in some
modest improvement to the cigs. Further south, the risk of
significant reductions diminishes, but can`t rule out a brief
period of IFR cigs at KJST around dawn.

Arrival of high pressure and associated dry air mass should ensure
widespread VFR conds by Saturday afternoon. However, lingering cig
reductions appear likely across southern Pa, esp at KJST.

Outlook...

Sun...Patchy AM fog possible.

Mon...PM showers/cigs reductions possible.

Tue-Wed...No sig wx expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte/Gartner
NEAR TERM...La Corte/Gartner
SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Gartner
LONG TERM...Ross
AVIATION...Fitzgerald



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