Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 040859
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
459 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A MAINLY FAIR AND WARM DAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTH AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE STATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
FROM THE GR LAKES WILL COMBINE FOR A VERY WARM DAY UNDER A
FRESHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW. AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES BY
AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FLATTEN TODAY...WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MID/HIGHS CLOUDS.

STABILITY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE LATER IN THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE EASTERN GR LAKES WITH THE SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL
MODELS COOKING UP A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE. MY FAR NWRN ZONES
COULD SEE A THUNDERSTORM LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL WITH MARGINAL
SHEAR AND THE WEAK CAPES.

IT SHOULD HEAT UP NICELY BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE LATER TODAY...WITH
HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 70S TO MID 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE
OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A RIBBON OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS WILL BECOME ORIENTED WEST-
EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT...SO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY
HEAVY SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IF ANY KIND OF
SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAN MANAGE TO FORM UPSTREAM THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S WILL BE SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
WITH THE FRONT BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE AREA...TUESDAY
WILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS AS WELL AS A GOOD CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WE`LL SHAVE SEVERAL DEGREES
OFF TODAY`S HIGH TEMPS GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FRONT THAT WILL BE SLOW TO SETTLE THROUGH THE REGION LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BECOME VERY DIFFUSE OR EVEN WASH OUT ALTOGETHER OFF
TO OUR SOUTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER TOP OF IT THROUGH MID
WEEK. THERE COULD BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY...BUT THE TREND FROM MID WEEK ONWARD
WILL BE FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS...AND
BY WEEK`S END TAKES ON THE LOOK OF A REX BLOCK OVER THE EASTERN
US.

INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE MODELS STILL WANT TO DEVELOP A
TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE SERN COAST NEAR THE BAHAMAS LATER IN THE
WEEK. NHC HAS BEEN ISSUING SPECIAL STATEMENTS ON THIS POTENTIAL.

TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AS
WE SEE TO HAVE SUDDENLY TRANSITIONED INTO AN EARLY SUMMER TYPE
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BRING A NEAR
CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA MONDAY EVENING WITH A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION POSSIBLE AT
KBFD.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...AM LOW CIGS/SHRA POSS AT KBFD. SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS SOUTH.

WED...AM LOW CIGS POSS KJST.

THU-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
TODAY. MIN RH`S WILL BE BELOW 30% AND MARGINAL WINDS HAVE LED TO
THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MY EASTERN ZONES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ037-041-042-046-051>053-058-059-066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER...



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