Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FXUS61 KCTP 040226
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1026 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE MIDWEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A SLOW MOVING FRONT
MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE...

A CLUSTER OF STORMS EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN SUBURBS OF
PITTSBURGH TO JUST WEST OF STATE COLLEGE...AND IS TRACKING EAST AT
A DECENT CLIP. EARLIER TALL CORES HAVE COME DOWN QUITE A
BIT...WITH MOST ACTIVITY LOOKING SUB SEVERE AT THIS HOUR. BIGGEST
QUESTION FOR THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS WILL BE HOW PERSISTENT THE STORMS
WILL BE IN THE FACE OF A STABILIZING LOWER ATMOSPHERE. HRRR
SUGGESTS THE SCATTERED...NOT VERY ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 05-06Z...WHEN ACTIVITY
QUIETS DOWN RAPIDLY REGION-WIDE.

BIGGEST REMAINING THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WITHIN
THE EAST-WEST BAND THAT IS PRETTY MUCH TRACKING DUE EAST. THE
MOVEMENT IS FAIRLY RAPID SO FLOODING THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL UNLESS A
LOCATION MANAGES TO GET HIT SEVERAL TIMES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME.

LOWS EARLY TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NW TO MID
60S OVER THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A RATHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND SECONDARY CFRONT WILL BE DIVING
SE FROM THE UPPER GLAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH THE LLVL ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY NIGHT/S
CFROPA...STG FORCING BENEATH THE L.E. REGION OF A 95 KT JET WILL
LIKELY SPARK AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NRN MTNS.

MAX TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE 70S ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE
CWA...TO THE 80S IN THE SE HALF. CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST AND ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW AS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY HANGS OUT JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE STATE. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY SO WILL KEEP SOME POP IN THE SRN PART OF THE STATE...BUT
MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY UNTIL THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEN A STACKED LOW WILL SLIDE EASTWARD FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MAY MAKE A MORE-OR- LESS CONSTANT RAIN INSTEAD OF
SHOWERY/CONVECTIVE PRECIP. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE
OFF LATE NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL BE A HERALD FOR QUIETER WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK BEFORE WARMING
UP INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AIRSPACE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING/DISSIPATING
AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS. THE SPARSE COVERAGE PRECLUDED
MENTION IN TERMINALS AND WILL AMD AS NECESSARY. JST/AOO SHOULD SEE
THE GREATEST RISK FOR TSTM IMPACTS GIVEN EVOLVING STORMS UPSTREAM
OVER PIT/BTP VCNTY MOVG ESEWD. THE OTHER POTENTIAL AVN CONCERN IS
IFR FOG OR LOW CIGS DEVELOPING DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO FAVOR WRN TAFS GIVEN COMBO OF WEAK UPSLOPE WLY FLOW AND
NARROWING DEWPT DEPRESSIONS. ANY RAINFALL WILL ALSO AID IN POTNL
REDUCED CONDS BY PROVIDING ADDNL LLVL MSTR. CONFIDENCE IN
RESTRICTIONS AFT 06Z IS LOW ATTM BUT SOMETHING TO BE AWARE OF FOR
THE 06Z SCHEDULED ISSUANCE. FOR TUESDAY...LOOK FOR MAINLY VFR WITH
SCT-BKN CIGS 050 AND SFC WIND GUSTS 15-20KTS 16-22Z.

OUTLOOK...

WED...VFR. NO SIG WX.

THU-FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN PSBL AS LOW PRES TRACKS SOUTH OF
CENTRAL PA.

SAT...VFR WITH A LOW CHC OF MVFR IN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DANGELO/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL


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