Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 260230
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1030 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure will set up shop over the western
Atlantic for the next several days bringing warm and increasingly
humid conditions to the region into the holiday weekend.
Cooler and showery weather may arrive for Memorial Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A light southwest breeze will become more southerly by daybreak.
Mid and high level moisture will slowly increase overnight with
the chance of a shower reaching my western zones by daybreak. The
southerly flow and increasing cloudiness will help keep lows on
the mild side, in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A generally thick area of alto cu clouds should move across the
fcst area Thursday morning and linger through the midday hours
across the east before breaking a bit during the several hours of
peak heating. A weak upper shortwave and subtle llvl trough/wind
shift will slide ENE across the region Thursday afternoon and
Evening. The amount...intensity and location of showers and
isolated to sctd TSRA will depend highly on the amt of llvl
heating we can achieve through the cloud cover. In addition...the
presence of a weak mid-level capping inversion should limit
extensive/deep convection.

Latest Oper and ENS guidance points twd a few to svrl hour period
of high chc/low likely pops for convection between 20Z thur and
01z Friday with tapered pops on either side of this time period.

Mean QPF will be around one tenth of an inch...with obviously
higher and lower pinpoint amounts around and outside of the
anticipated small convective clusters.

High temps Thursday afternoon should be a few deg F lower in most
places due to the cloud cover.

After the scattered evening convection wanes...a mild and somewhat
muggy night will follow with mins between 58-65F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The large scale pattern has a decidedly summertime look and feel
to it through Memorial Day weekend and into next week with light
winds aloft and a prevailing ridge across the northeast CONUS.
Temperatures will average above normal with the core of the `hot`
weather front-loaded Friday-Sunday before trending modestly toward
late May/early June climatology. Precipitation risk early in the
period should be characterized by diurnal convection with the
highest probs occurring during peak afternoon heating, augmented
at times perhaps by weak disturbances drifting through aloft. Max
POP may be centered on or around Memorial Day as weak shortwave
suppresses heights as it passes by to the north and some interaction
takes place with `tropical` system migrating toward the southeast
U.S. coast. Latest NHC forecast this area of disturbed weather has
a 50% chance of development within the next 5 days.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

High pressure will continue to dominate the pattern overnight so
expect VFR to continue through mid morning across PA. The low-
level flow will become south to southwesterly late Thursday
morning and through the afternoon. As the system moves in from the
west, there could be a few showers and thunderstorms late
Thursday afternoon/Thursday evening. There still is a lack of
confidence is how widespread of the showers given the weakening of
the the mid and upper wave and its potential to trigger
convection. Dewpoints should also be relatively low to begin with
and would need to increase substantially for any appreciable
convection to form. There is a better chance for scattered
afternoon SHRA/TSRA on Friday.


OUTLOOK...
Fri-Sun...Isold...mainly pm tsra impacts possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte
SHORT TERM...Lambert
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Lambert/Ceru



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