Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 240319
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1119 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
As an upper level ridge builds over the eastern US we could see
brief period of freezing rain Friday morning than a rapid warm
up. Our mid-tropospheric heights and temperatures will be
slightly above normal into next week. A few week systems could
bring showers to the region but at this time the pattern does
not suggest any significant rain events.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Under clear skies temperatures have faded away rapidly. Many
locations have fallen into the 20s. Difficult to display this
consistently and collaboratively in our grids.

Satellite imagery shows a larger area of deep cold cloud tops
over Michigan and leading cirrus over Ohio. Clouds are coming
and behind them some rainfall is coming.

Due to the cold air in the boundary layer the rain will likely
start as freezing rain over northern and some central areas.
Farther south less QPF is forecast and later in time so less
likely they will see freezing rain.

The HRRR and its coarser twin the RAP show the precipitation
coming in slower with each run. Likely most areas will not see
any precipitation much before 4 to 6 AM. In with 0.01 to about
0.10 inches of QPF a light glaze is possible before 8 AM in
northern and central areas.

Most of the region in the advisory for freezing rain could see a
light glaze this morning. If and where it rains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
There will be a lingering threat for isolated freezing rain in
the 8 AM to 10 AM timeframe in some locations and perhaps 11 AM
in colder areas of our northeastern areas. But the forecast
rapid warm up and the March sun angles should help reduce this
fast. One might not see the sun but the shortwave energy will
reach roads and walks.

The chance of rain diminishes during the day.

There should be a very rapid warm up by late morning and into the
afternoon. Winter will have exited stage East and it may be
along time before we see any significantly cold weather again.

High temperatures should range mainly from the 50 to the lower
60s. Warmest in the south/southwest.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At the outset of the longer term period the models are in fair
agreement in timing and strength. All are indicating a boundary
just to the north of Pennsylvania with a large upper level low
moving through the central midwest. A negatively tilted ridge
over the mid Atlantic will allow for stable but cloudy weather
into Saturday. Lows Friday night into Saturday should range from
the upper 40s to low 50s. There could be light rain showers on
Saturday but warm and stable. A cooler moist boundary should
move into the region Sunday out ahead of the approaching low.
Have adjusted POPs for timing and intensity. QPF remains
variable but possible wet period Sunday into Monday.

Above average temperatures are expected over the weekend with
the warmest day likely on Saturday with some sites approaching
70F over southern PA. Sunday should be markedly cooler behind
a backdoor cold front and a likelihood of rain. However, above
average temperatures (especially nighttime) appear very likely
through early next week, as 12Z GEFS indicates Pa remains
beneath a mean upper level ridge and plume of anomalous PWATs.
The chance of showers will spike with passage of next shortwave
Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mid level cloud is on the increase along with surface winds
veering to 90-140 degrees. Light precip will move across the
region between 06-18z Friday, starting as RA/FZRA/PL before
transitioning to all RA by 15z Friday. Added PROB30 group to
hedge toward brief period of ice mix around daybreak Friday.

Conditions will remain generally MVFR even through the precip
times. Possibly a brief period of IFR in KBFD and KJST from
10-14Z.

Precip ends by 18z in all locations with increasing ceilings.

Outlook...

Sat...Mainly VFR. Chance of rain northern 1/2 airspace.

Sun-Tue...Sub-VFR with periods of rain.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Minimum temperature records for 3/23 at select sites:

MDT: 14 in 1934
IPT: 8 in 1906
BFD: 5 in 1959
AOO: 15 in 1960

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 11 AM EDT Friday for
PAZ005-006-010>012-017>019-026>028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Grumm
NEAR TERM...Grumm
SHORT TERM...Grumm
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Ceru
AVIATION...DeVoir/Evanego/Tyburski
CLIMATE...


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