Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 032224
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
624 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH THE STATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE MIDWEEK
BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A
SLOW MOVING FRONT MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

6PM UPDATE...

RELATIVELY STABLE AIR DEVELOPED OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON EFFECTIVELY CAPPING CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
WEAK COLD FRONT. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS RECOVERED OVER SWRN PA WHERE
THE MOST ACTIVE STORMS ARE IN PROGRESS AS OF 6 PM. THE HRRR TRACKS
THESE STORMS EAST THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHILE
KEEPING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND
AFFECTING THE REGION INTO THE WEE HOURS OF TUESDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT AS WE
TYPICALLY SEE IT BECOME MORE STABLE AFTER WE LOSE THE SOLAR
HEATING.

ALTHOUGH THE SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK KEEPS THE SLIGHT RISK OVER
ALMOST ALL OF CENTRAL PA...HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS GIVEN THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND APPROACHING
NIGHTFALL.

LOWS EARLY TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NW TO MID
60S OVER THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A RATHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND SECONDARY CFRONT WILL BE DIVING
SE FROM THE UPPER GLAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH THE LLVL ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY NIGHT/S
CFROPA...STG FORCING BENEATH THE L.E. REGION OF A 95 KT JET WILL
LIKELY SPARK AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NRN MTNS.

MAX TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE 70S ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE
CWA...TO THE 80S IN THE SE HALF. CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST AND ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW AS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY HANGS OUT JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE STATE. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY SO WILL KEEP SOME POP IN THE SRN PART OF THE STATE...BUT
MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY UNTIL THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEN A STACKED LOW WILL SLIDE EASTWARD FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MAY MAKE A MORE-OR- LESS CONSTANT RAIN INSTEAD OF
SHOWERY/CONVECTIVE PRECIP. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE
OFF LATE NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL BE A HERALD FOR QUIETER WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK BEFORE WARMING
UP INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND PRECEDING SFC/LEE TROUGH OVER THE
SUSQ VALLEY WILL ACT AS TWO AREAS OF FOCUS FOR LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA TSRA WITH SCT/BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH VERY BRIEF IFR
VSBY IN +RA AND HIGHLY-LOCALIZED WESTERLY SFC WIND GUSTS AOA
40KTS. WILL CONTINUE TO USE -SHRA WITH VCTS BTWN 20-22Z TO SHOW
TSTM IMPACT RISK AT ALL TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...VFR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. SHRA/TSRA CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.

WED...VFR. NO SIG WX.

THU-FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN PSBL AS LOW PRES TRACKS SOUTH OF
CENTRAL PA.

SAT...VFR WITH A LOW CHC OF MVFR IN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DANGELO/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL


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