Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 260338
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1138 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will settle south of Pennsylvania overnight. High
pressure will return for mid week with continued warm temperatures.
An area of low pressure approaching from the west is likely to
lift through the region on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Weak cold front still over northern Pa at 01Z. However, parent
shortwave and assoc lg scale forcing have exited the area, so the
rest of the night should be dry over the vast majority of central
Pa. Suppose an isolated shra could still form along front as it
sags southward overnight, but will not mention precip in the
grids. Wet ground, clearing skies and light wind should promote
areas of fog overnight. Dwpt depression already near zero in spots
this evening.

Advection of drier air across northern Pa should allow temps to
dip into the low 60s across the n mtns, while high humidity
lingers over the s tier with lows btwn 70-75F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Sfc high and assoc lower PWAT air mass will slide eastward into Pa
on Tuesday, supplying the area with msunny and less humid conds.
Ens mean 8h temps still supportive of high temps well abv
seasonal norms, likely ranging from the m80s across the
Alleghenies, to the l-m90s over the Susq Valley. Model soundings
do indicate there will be some cirrus across southern Pa linked to
convection ovr the Ohio Valley. Can`t even rule out an isold pm
tsra along the MD border with Somerset/Bedford Co, in proximity to
stalled frontal bndry lying south of the Mason Dixon Line.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
In the extended the heat continues through midweek...then a
cooling trend to near normal highs looks likely for a few days as
several fronts linger over the area and the core of hot
temperatures shifts west.

The upper ridge across the Southern U.S. is forecast to
retrogress into the Southwestern U.S. by late in the week allowing
northern stream energy to produce a weak, but persistent troffing
across the northeast states.

Cold front currently crossing the region is forecast to stall just
south of the PA/MD border. A wave is forecast to form on the front
supported by the developing upper trof, moving east through the
Ohio Valley Friday and crossing PA on Saturday into Sunday. This
looks to bring a prolonged period of unsettled with weather with
showery conds across the state. The cloudiness will further
support cooler high temperatures than recent days. Low
temperatures during this period look to be several degrees above
normal, especially across southern sections of the state.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Just some high clouds across the south. Adjusted the 03Z TAF
package some. Main problem at this time is the low conditions
at IPT.

Earlier discussion below.

A few more hours of showers and storms across the southern part
of the state. Storms formed earlier this afternoon with very high
dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s and temperatures in the 90s.

Anyway, most of the night should be dry with VFR conditions
early on. Some fog possible later.

Tuesday and Wednesday look to be dry with lower humidity
levels, and mainly VFR conditions.

OUTLOOK...

WED...VFR.

THU-SAT...Mainly VFR. SCT PM SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high for Harrisburg today is 99 degrees set in 1940.

The high so far today has been 97 degrees.

Record high for Williamsport today is 100 set in 1934.

The high so far today has been 98 degrees.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald/La Corte
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/La Corte
LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner
AVIATION...Martin
CLIMATE...Martin



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