Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 281127
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
727 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST AND
BRING FAIR...DRY WEATHER WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY TODAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND...TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON
LINE AS OF 09Z. IN ITS WAKE...PATCHY STRATO CU AND CIRRUS WERE
NOTED ACROSS THE SERN ZONES...WHILE THE COOLER UPSLOPE FLOW UNDER
THE SHALLOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION /COMBINED WITH SOME LIMITED
MOISTURE TAPPED FROM THE GLAKES/ WAS LEADING TO AREAS OF BKN-OVC
STRATO CU ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS OF PENN.

BY LATE THIS MORNING...VERTICAL MIXING OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT
WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE MOST OF THESE CLOUDS AND LAVE JUST SOME
SCATTERED FLAT CU ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON UNDER WEAK...COOL LLVL ADVECTION WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR
THE NEW YORK BORDER. MAX TEMPS ELSEWHERE WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER
70S ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...AND THE MTNS NEAR I-80...TO THE
MID AND UPPER 70S IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

PATCHY STRATO CU ARE POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN SKIES WILL BECOME
CLEAR. THE LONE EXCEPTION APPEARS TO BE NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF
THE KBFD WHERE SOME LAKE EFFECT STRATO CU COULD DRIFT SE AT TIMES.

POPS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE ESSENTIALLY ZERO.

A FAIRLY LIGHT...5 TO 10 MPH BREEZE TODAY WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION AT DAYBREAK FRIDAY WILL
DRIFT EAST TO THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY DUSK. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WILL HELP DAYTIME TEMPS TO REBOUND BY
UP TO SEVERAL DEG COMPARED TO THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE FLOW PATTERN WILL FEATURE TROUGHING IN THE WEST
AND FAIRLY HIGH HEIGHTS FCST TO PREVAIL OVER THE EAST SUPPORTED
BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT SHOULD ANCHOR OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
RIDGE WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO CENTER OVER UPSTATE NY AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON SATURDAY. A LONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN CANADA...TO A NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH WHICH SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST. THE GREATEST
MOISTURE FLUX ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED
TO STAY NORTH OF PA.

HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE...WITH ENOUGH FORCING
TO WARRANT INCREASING PROBABILITY/OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE SPURRED
ON BY A WARMING TREND WITH MAX TEMPS 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME SHOULD BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS SOME MODEL VARIATION SO EXPECT SOME
MODIFICATIONS AS TIME PROGRESSES. A GFS AND EC IN THE LONG RANGE
ARE ACTUALLY IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...INCLUDING THE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH THAT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS MORE DEFINED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BREEZE RESULTED IN LITTLE FOG SO FAR.

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE SOME LOWER CLDS THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE VFR...BUT BREEZY...AS COLDER
AIR WORKS IN.

WITH CLEAR SKIES AND THE HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT...SOME FOG EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY TO THE
WEST. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WIND ACROSS THE FAR EAST TO
LIMIT FOG.

ANOTHER FINE LATE SUMMER DAY ON FRIDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...EARLY MORNING FOG WITH RESTRICTIONS LIKELY. OTHERWISE VFR.

SAT-MON...MAINLY VFR. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN


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