Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FXUS61 KCTP 281159
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
759 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL COME
TO AN END BY THE END OF THE MONTH AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS WEEKEND. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE WHICH SHOULD FAVOR A
COOLER WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE MONTH OF JUNE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
850 MB COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING...
PRODUCING LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT EARLY TODAY AND
DELIVERING DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR. SFC OBS INDICATING LOWER 50
DEWPOINTS ADVECTING INTO NORTHWEST PA...WHICH WILL SPREAD INTO THE
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATER ON.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE LOWER SUSQ...WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN
NEAR 70F...WILL LINGER FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE MIXING OUT
BY MID MORNING. THIS AREA SEEMS PRIME FOR AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION
LATER THIS AFTN GIVEN COMBO OF BEST MSTR AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
WEAK SEWD-ADVANCING 850 MB FRONT. WITH THE BOUNDARY FCST TO
SLOW/STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE TONIGHT...
KEPT VERY LOW POPS IN THE FAR SRN TIER AFT 00Z. A SSELY LLVL
FETCH MAY SPELL A LARGER AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
PA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

CORRIDOR FROM JST/AOO TO UNV AND IPT SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PCPN TODAY WITH FROPA EXPECTED PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING.

INCREASED MAX TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR
WHICH TAKES READINGS UP TO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90F IN THE LOWER
SQV. OVERNIGHT MINS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH TO
LOW-MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW AN INCREASINGLY HUMID/UNSTABLE
AIR MASS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED
DIURNAL PM CONVECTION. LIGHT WINDS BENEATH UPPER LVL RIDGE SHOULD
RESULT IN NORTHWARD DRIFTING...PULSE-TYPE TSRA WITH LITTLE THREAT
OF SVR WX. MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE L80S MOST
PLACES...WITH THE GREATEST DEPARTURES FROM AVG ACROSS WARREN CO DUE
TO DOWNSLOPING SSE FLOW.

LACK OF LG SCALE FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN COLLAPSE OF EVENING
CONVECTION ARND SUNSET. THE REST OF FRI NIGHT SHOULD BE FAIR AND
SUMMERLIKE WITH HIGH DWPTS ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL ONLY INTO THE
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MED RANGE GUIDANCE SIGNALS A CONTINUATION OF SUMMERLIKE WX
INTO SATURDAY...WITH 00Z GEFS SHOWING ANOMALOUS 500MB HGTS AND
SFC PRES OFF THE E COAST. A BETTER CHC OF SHRA/TSRA COMES LATE
SATURDAY WITH APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. EARLIER MDL TIMING DIFFS
HAVE BEEN RESOLVED WITH MDL CONSENSUS NOW PUSHING COLD FRONT THRU
SUN MORNING.

IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...A COUPLE DAYS OF CLOUDY...COOL AND SHOWERY
WX APPEARS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL PA WITH FRONT STALLING OUT SOUTH OF
PA AND A LIKELIHOOD OF OVERRUNNING RAIN/SHOWERS. ANOMALOUS
EASTERLY FLOW/PWATS INDICATED IN 00Z GEFS OVER CENTRAL PA BTWN SFC
HIGH OVR NEW ENG AND FRONT TO THE SOUTH. IN ADDITION TO THE
MOISTURE...CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN IN FAVORABLE JET ENTRANCE REGION
SUN-TUE...PROVIDING THE LG SCALE FORCING TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF
RAIN SUN-TUE. 00Z GEFS MEAN QPF BTWN SUN-TUE RANGES FROM 0.5 TO 1
INCHES.

BASED ON GEFS AND OPER MDL GUIDANCE...HAVE INCREASED POPS
AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS MAY NOT HIT 60F
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN PA SUN/MON. IMPROVING CONDS
APPEAR LIKELY BY MIDWEEK AS UPPER RIDGE OVR THE SE CONUS EXPANDS
NORTHWARD INTO PA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
28/12Z...CIGS HAVE QUICKLY IMPROVED TO VFR AT BFD AS DRIER AIR
STARTS TO WORK IN BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT. CENTRAL TAFS MAY SEE
A BRIEF MVFR CIG BUT JST-IPT CORRIDOR SHOULD REMAIN VFR. MVFR FOG
AT IPT SHOULD BE IMPROVING AND IFR VISBYS AT LNS/MDT SHOULD RETURN
TO VFR BY 14Z. WILL SHOW TEMPO FOR IMPROVEMENT AT SE TAFS BTWN
12-13Z.

ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL INTO
THE AFTN WITH RISK OF ISOLD TO WDLY SCT TSTMS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN AND ESPECIALLY SERN TERMINALS /MDT-LNS/ AHEAD SEWD
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. LIMITED CVRG AND RELATIVELY LOW POINT
PROBABILITIES WILL PRECLUDE MENTION IN TAFS ATTM. LATER ISSUANCE
CAN UPDATE AS NEEDED. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE
MD BORDER WITH A DEVELOPING SSELY UPSLOPE FLOW PERHAPS SUPPORTING
A BROADER AREA OF MARGINALLY LOW CIGS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...PATCHY MVFR FOG/CIGS EARLY. ISOLD AFTERNOON TSTMS.

SAT...PATCHY MVFR FOG/CIGS EARLY. SCT-NMRS AFTERNOON TSTMS W/COLD
FROPA.

SUN-MON...VFR/MVFR CONDS WITH SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL



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