Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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821
FXUS61 KCTP 070346
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1046 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR AND RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS IN
PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWS INTO MIDWEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW DUE TO A COMPLICATED PATTERN EVOLUTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER WITH TIME...ENHANCED BY AN ARCTIC
FRONT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
IR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SHEARING MID CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PA. STRATUS OVER THE EASTERN LAKES SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF
THE PA/NY BORDER FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT...AS A NARROW SFC
RIDGE SETS UP ALONG THE APPALACHIAN SPINE. DEEPENING SFC LOW OFF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND CLIPPER LOW STREAKING INTO NRN MN ARE
SANDWICHING THE HIGH. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP LOWER THAN FORECAST OVER THE NORTHWEST.
NUDGED DOWNWARD A FEW TO SEVERAL MORE DEGREES. SOME AREAS COULD
SEE UPPER TEENS OR EVEN A TAD LOWER IF CLOUDS REMAIN NORTH OF THE
BORDER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR AND MILD FIRST WEEKEND OF FEB 2016 CONTINUES ON SUNDAY AS
CENTRAL PA REMAINS IN BTWN WX SYSTEMS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VALLEY AND OFF THE EAST COAST IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 40S OR +5-10F ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEB.

CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY APPROACHING THE
APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE BLEND BRINGS RISK
OF SNOW INTO THE FAR NW ZONES 06-12Z MON. QPF/SNOW AMTS WERE
DERIVED FROM WPC/WWD WHICH IS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS /NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFS IN BRINGING SNOW INTO THE FAR WRN ZONES BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY/ WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM FLEXIBILITY TO
NUDGE SLOWER/FASTER AS SOLUTIONS CONVERGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER...FOLLOWED BY A SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR THE MIDDLE AND
LATER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT CENTRAL PA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO
WHETHER WE WILL SEE AN ORGANIZED SNOWSTORM...OR SIMPLY AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW.

THE 12Z GEFS...AS WELL AS THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF...DEVELOP A STRONG STORM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE IT NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THEY KEEP
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THIS STORM WELL TO THE EAST OF
CENTRAL PA. THE MODELS ALSO DEVELOP A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUES. AN INVERTED
TROUGH TO THE NW OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM COULD BRING A ROUND OF
STEADIER SNOW INTO CENTRAL PA. AT THE VERY LEAST...AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW APPEARS LIKELY TO BEGIN ON MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE MORE CERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN US BY TUES/WED OF
NEXT WEEK...DRIVING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. NW FLOW WILL KEEP
THE NORMAL LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY...PROVIDING A NEAR CERTAINTY OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND
LIGHT WINDS. THE ONLY POSSIBLE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL OF PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY BTWN 09Z-13Z. ALTHOUGH ODDS
AGAINST IT...KLNS APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY AIRFIELD TO EXPERIENCE A
PERIOD OF REDUCED VIS BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY AND LATEST SREF PROBS.

OUTLOOK...

MON...PM LGT SNOW LIKELY...ESP W MTNS.

TUE...LGT SNOW POSSIBLE...ESP W MTNS.

WED...IFR/MVFR IN SHSN WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS CENTRAL/EAST.
SFC WIND GUSTS 20+KT FROM 270-300.

THU...MVFR IN -SHSN POSSIBLE W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD



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