813
FXUS61 KCTP 280243
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1043 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Slow moving showers will continue to drift eastward overnight
  before diminishing, mainly over the Western Mountains and
  Lower Susquehanna Valley/Southern Poconos.
* Another round of showers and T-storms will arrive Saturday
  with a cold front driving southeast during the mid afternoon.
* Sunday will be dry, sunny, and warmer before the unsettled
  pattern returns for the beginning of next week and the start
  of July.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A widespread and thick stratus deck within a cool air damming
regime will continue to be present over central PA for the
remainder of this evening and into tomorrow morning.

There remains a line of convection in western PA that is
continuing to show a downward trend as it continues to propagate
eastward. The convective corridor along the western/southern
periphery of the CWA fades into tonight with the loss of
heating/instability. Can`t rule out a stray shower or two in a
few spots overnight, but expect the majority of the time to be
dry. Low stratus clouds will remain entrenched downwind of the
Allegheny Front with pockets of ridgetop fog/mist/drizzle.
Cloudy and muggy conditions expected heading into the last
weekend of June with lows tonight in the 60-70F range or +5-10
degrees above climo.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A new round of showers and thunderstorms are likely on Saturday
as another cold front is forecast to move southeast across the
state. Model guidance shows the low clouds gradually eroding
through midday over the central ridges and eastern valleys.
Cloud breaks should allow for sufficient BL heating with
significant upside to SBCAPE values >2000 J/kg with fcst max
temps 85-90F over south central PA. Storms are expected to form
along and ahead of southeastward advancing cold front and pre
frontal/lee side sfc trough by the afternoon. CAM guidance is
showing some mixed signals concerning the extent of convective
potential and deep layer shear is <30kt. That said, the strong
sfc heating and steep low level lapse rates may be enough to
support a localized damaging wind threat during the afternoon
and evening. SPC held the D2 risk level at 1 out of 5 (MRGL)
with the 1730UTC update.

Sfc high pressure building into CPA behind the front provides a
dry period Saturday night through Sunday. Any clearing Saturday
night could result in a foggy start to the last Sunday in June.
Sunday will see a return of sunshine, drying condition, and
warmer temperatures once high pressure is in control. High
temps on Sunday will reach the low 80s across the northern tier
of the commonwealth to the low 90s near south central PA along
the Mason Dixon line.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The stormy and unsettled pattern resumes early next week with a
shortwave trough progressing through the Great Lakes sending a
quasi stationary/warm and cold front through the region Monday
and Tuesday. For now, the signal is relatively weak for rainfall
leading up to the 4th of July. However, another northern stream
front will keep low POPs in the forecast for Independence Day.
Whether or not we see precipitation for the 4th will be
dependent on how quickly the upper level low lifts out of New
England and gets replaced by building region over the central
US. Temperatures by the middle of next week are progged to be
just above to near climo.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Line of showers moving toward JST will die off as it gets there
thanks to the llvl cool, stable air covering 95% of Central PA.
Patchy --SHRA elsewhere will turn to ocnl -DZ as the widespread
low stratus with IFR to LIFR CIGS will persist all night.

Conditions will improve through IFR to MVFR during the morning
hours before reaching VFR at most or all airfields by 14-16Z
Saturday. Another round of SHRA/Gusty TSRA should move SE
across much or all of PA Sat afternoon and evening along and
ahead of a cold front. The TSRA may not develop until a
boundary sags south of BFD, therefore, we`ve left mention of
TSRA out in favor of AM -SHRA there.

A good push of drier air will cross the lower lakes Sat aftn and
cross PA in the evening and Sat night. The associated clearing
will likely lead to areas of fog Sat night and Sun AM.

Outlook...

Sun...AM fog then VFR.
Mon-Tue...Showers and t-storms with times of fog and low clouds
overnight.
Wed...AM fog then VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Bowen
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Bowen
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl/Bowen
LONG TERM...Steinbugl/Bowen
AVIATION...Dangelo