Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 041822
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
222 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SLIDE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY. THIS
WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

VIZ SATELLITE SHOWS A TIDY SWIRL OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE LOW THAT IS SPEEDING ALMOST DUE EAST OFF THE
COAST.

THE LARGER RAIN SHIELD HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA LEAVING WIDELY
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE. SHORT RANGE HIGH RES GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AND THE
CHANCE FOR A POP UP SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN SCATTERED ENOUGH TO NOT POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO
EVENING COOKOUTS OR FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

IT WILL REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE HOWEVER WITH LITTLE HOPE FOR
WARMING COMING FROM ANYTHING OTHER THAN WHATEVER PARTIAL SUNSHINE
WE MAY BE ABLE TO MUSTER AS THE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING CENTERED OVER PENN ON SUNDAY.

A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN EARLIER TODAY...DRYING ALOFT ON TOP OF
LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOK TO BE PRIME
INGREDIENTS FOR FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. THE FOG COULD BECOME
LOCALLY DENSE EARLY SUNDAY.

LOWS EARLY SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE CHILLY MID-UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SCENT
MTNS AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...

AFTER THE EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...SUNDAY SHOULD BE
GORGEOUS WITH LIGHT WINDS...BRIGHT SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO WHAT NORMAL IS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY CEDE TO A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF PA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC
FOR RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

DEWPOINTS RAMP UP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT
CONVECTION RETURNS MON AFTERNOON-TUE AS A WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW KICKS IN. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT AND POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEG F ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...FASTER WESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR
LEADING TO DIFFICULTY IN TIMING INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES SLIDING
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL MEAN KEEPING MENTION OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED TSRA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPS SLIP BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THU AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE MID ATL COAST ALLOWING FOR
SOME SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON.

CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN SPOTS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW AS PROJECTED BY THE HRRR. LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO
IMPROVE AND START TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY THIS WILL LEAD TO FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AND AN ALMOST CLASSIC SETUP FOR WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY.

SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE VFR FLYING ONCE THE MORNING FOG/HZ BURNS
OFF.

OUTLOOK...

MON-WED...VFR/MVFR WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/PM TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE



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