Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KCTP 260245
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1045 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE ON
SUNDAY. A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL FAVOR UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE SLIPPING SOUTH OF PA THIS EVENING. RADAR
TRENDS AND HRRR SUGGEST DWINDLING BAND OF RAIN ASSOC WITH FGEN
FORCING IN THE 8-7H LYR WILL ONLY JUST GRAZE SOUTHERN
SOMERSET/BEDFORD COUNTIES THIS EVENING. SOME SNOW EVEN REPORTED AT
GARRETT CO AIRPORT...BUT PRECIP RTS/EVAP COOLING PROBABLY WON/T
BE SIG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY SNOW IN PA. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT OF
RAIN ALONG THE S TIER AND BRINGING CLEARING SKIES TO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES.

BLEND OF LATEST LAMP/RAP OUTPUT SUPPORTS OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE
U20S ACROSS THE N MTNS...TO THE U30S ACROSS THE LOW ELEVATIONS
ALONG THE MD BORDER. HAVE ADDED FROST TO THE FCST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...WHERE SKIES ARE LIKELY TO BECOME
MCLEAR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
NARROW SFC RIDGE AND ASSOC BAND OF DRY AIR/LOW PWATS OVR UPSTATE
NY THIS EVENING WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL PA SUNDAY MORNING.
THUS...SEE A MAINLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER...UPPER TROF
AND ASSOC COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE SWINGING SOUTH INTO THE STATE
BY AFTN. THUS...EXPECT PLENTY OF AFTN CU AND EVEN A FEW ISOLD
-SHRA...ESP OVR THE N MTNS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SPARSITY OF
COVERAGE AND LOW PWATS EXPECT MEASURABLE RAINFALL TO BE A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY. THUS...WILL NOT EXPLICITLY MENTION -SHRA IN FCST
ATTM.

18Z GEFS MEAN 8H TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM NR 50F ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...TO NR 60F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...STILL WELL BLW
NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA WILL KEEP THE REGION IN UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE BLOCKED UP NRN STREAM...GENERALLY
NW FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL TEND TO SHUNT SRN STREAM
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF PA.

EARLY NEXT WEEK A SHOT OF COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES AS A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT IS NUDGED SOUTHWARD ACROSS PA FROM AN UPPER LOW
OVR NEW ENG. COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOC WITH UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO A GOOD DEAL OF DAYTIME CLOUDINESS AND SCT SHRA /ESP OVR
THE MTNS/ MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

BY MIDWEEK...THIS LOW FINALLY LIFTS OUT FOR GOOD..BUT DIGGING
TROUGH FROM UPPER MIDWEST WILL EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY
LATE WEEK...COMBINED WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT
OF THE S PLAINS TOWARD THE E COAST WILL BRING POSSIBILITY OF A
DEVELOPING STORM SLIDING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
TRACK/STRENGTH STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE
WE/LL BE BETWEEN THAT LOW PRESSURE AREA AND A HIGH OVER OHIO
VALLEY...LIKELY KEEPING CLOUDS AND SCT SHOWERS AROUND AS TEMPS
COOL BACK DOWN A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS MVFR CONDITIONS
AT JST LATER TONIGHT...LOOKING AT JUST HIGH AND MID LVL
CLDS AT OTHER SITES WITH VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LVL TROUGH COULD BRING SOME LOWER CLDS AND PERHAPS
A SHOWER TO BFD LATE SUNDAY. FOR NOW...LEFT FCST FOR BFD
VFR.

MORE IN THE WAY OF WIND AND SHOWERS FOR MONDAY INTO TUE...AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND UPPER LVL HEIGHTS FALL.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR WED INTO THU...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST.

OUTLOOK...

MON-TUE...VFR...AREAS OF MVFR WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

WED-THU...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.