Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 172147
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
447 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the region through Thursday,
bringing fair skies but cold temperatures. Temperatures will
moderate to near normal Friday, then climb above normal over
the upcoming weekend with mainly dry weather continuing.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
High pressure and associated low PWAT air mass is building into
central Pa late today, resulting in mostly sunny skies over much
of the region. However, shallow layer of moisture beneath
subsidence inversion, combined with upslope flow, is yielding
persistent stratocu across the Alleghenies. A close examination
of the GOES16 visible loop shows what appears to be a plume of
light snow downwind the Seward Power Plant (Westmoreland Co)
into southwest Cambria Co. Visibilities have been running
between 2-3SM at KJST and can`t rule out a fresh dusting over
southwest Cambria county early this evening from this plume.

Models soundings show inversion heights falling further
overnight, as ridge axis builds over the state. Thus expect a
diminishing amount of stratocu across the western mountains and
clear skies elsewhere. A westerly breeze will keep us from
optimal radiational cooling, but we should still see lows range
from the single digits over the northwest half of the forecast
area to the low teens over the southeast counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Mostly sunny skies will occur Thursday with temperatures
rebounding to near or slightly below normal. Westerly flow will
freshen and gust between 20-25 mph at times. Gust as high as
30 to 35 mph will be possible across central and western areas in
the afternoon as high pressure builds to our south

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure moving off the southeast coast late in the week
will bring mild and dry weather to the area late in the week.

A deep low will swing a cold front across the area late Monday
and early Tuesday next week. Did slow the front down some, based
on new models.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
There continues to be some lingering MVFR over my western
higher elevation terminals with even some very light snow
causing visibilities under 2 miles at JST. Drier air will limit
the extent of the low clouds moving out of the mountains, but
these high elevation sites may be stubborn to improve despite an
overall fair weather pattern.

It will be breezy with gusts in the 10-20 mph range.


Outlook...

Thu...Mainly VFR. Breezy.

Fri-Sun...Mainly VFR.

Mon...Reduced conditions with rain showers associated with an
approaching cold front.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The threat of ice jamming is diminishing. Dry and colder
weather into mid week will form additional ice as stream flows
and open channels decrease. Another warm up is expected by the
end of the week into the weekend with rain to accompany a
frontal system early next week. Dewpoints not fcst to be as
high as last Friday evening, so expecting less rain and runoff.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald/La Corte
SHORT TERM...La Corte
LONG TERM...Martin
AVIATION...La Corte
HYDROLOGY...



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