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000
FXUS61 KCTP 101951
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
251 PM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. A VERY COLD AND
BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND BRING MUCH COLDER AIR WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
GRIPPING THE REGION THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE ALSO FORECAST IN PERENNIAL SNOWBELT
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
ELSEWHERE...IT WILL BE GENERALLY COLD AND DRY. THE ACTIVE EARLY
SEASON WINTER PATTERN LOOKS TO RESUME WITH ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
LIKELY AFFECTING THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLEARING OUT AND A COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE. THE FLOW ACROSS LAKE
ERIE IS TOO WRLY TO MAKE MUCH MORE THAN A FLURRY OVER THE FAR NW -
EVEN OVER WARREN CO THIS EVENING - AS THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY LAKE
EFFECT BANDS TO THE NORTH FOR A LITTLE WHILE. WINDS BRING HIGHER
RH BACK INTO THE NW AROUND SUNSET...SO THE CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE
AGAIN THERE THIS EVENING. FLOW IS FAVORABLE FOR WARREN CO TO GET
A MINOR ACCUM OVERNIGHT...MAINLY EARLY. THEN...THE MEAN 1000-850
FLOW BECOMES MORE LIKE 260 DEGREES...SO THAT MIGHT KEEP ANY SNOW
AT OR EVEN TO THE NORTH OF THE NY BORDER. MINS AND WINDS WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES
AND LAURELS. WILL KEEP MINS RIGHT IN LINE WITH MOS GUIDANCE IN THE
TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
TROUGH MOVING DOWN FROM THE NRN PLAINS WILL BACK THE WINDS A BIT
IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE NWRN HALF OF THE AREA. WHILE THIS MIGHT
TAKE THE LAKE EFFECT TO THE NORTH...IT WILL ALSO BRING SOME
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY. THUS...A RETURN OF CLOUDS AND SCT
SHSN IS ON ORDER FOR THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. TEMPS MAY ONLY
RISE 5-6F IN THE NORTH. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP A LITTLE IN
THE SE...BUT SNOW PACK -8C 8H TEMPS AND SHORT DAYLIGHT WILL KEEP
IT FROM RISING MORE THAN 10-12F THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE FAST-MOVING WINTER SYSTEM...A VIGOROUS
CYCLONIC/NW FLOW PATTERN WILL GRIP THE REGION WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A NRN
CLIPPER ON WED WILL HELP SUPPORT PERSISTENT...MAINLY W-E ORIENTED
LES BANDS OVER THE PERENNIAL NW SNOWBELT IN NRN WARREN/MCKEAN COS
WITH ACCUMS IN EXCESS OF 6" POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE PD.

THE GFS/ECMWF EVENTUALLY SHOW THE LAKE EFFECT WINDING DOWN AS
HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES IN THE MID-ATLC ON FRIDAY.

THE ACTIVE EARLY SEASON WINTER PATTERN LOOKS TO RESUME BY THE
WEEKEND...AS THE ENERGETIC SPLIT FLOW UPSTREAM MERGES OVER THE
CENTRAL STATES...ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP IN THE LWR MS
REGION AND TRACK NEWD INTO THE MID-ATLC/NORTHEAST STATES. WHILE
THERE IS REASONABLE CONVERGENCE OF SOLUTIONS ON A STORM
SYSTEM...THE DETAILS WILL NEED SORTING-OUT AT SHORTER RANGES TO
DETERMINE SENSIBLE WX IMPACTS SUCH AS TIMING AND PTYPES. AT FIRST
GLANCE...THE SET-UP IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO THIS PAST SUNDAY`S
SYSTEM WITH MIXED PRECIP AGAIN A CONCERN. THE COLD AIR PRECEDING
THE NEW SYSTEM SHOULD BE MORE ROBUST WHICH SUGGESTS AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR FROZEN/FREEZING PTYPES.

INCREASED POPS AROUND DAY 5 WITH REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS BELOW AVG GIVEN DIFFS IN THE
OPRN GFS/EC AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR WILL DOMINATE FOR ALL BUT BFD AND JST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
BFD WILL HAVE A DROP IN CIGS AND VSBYS TO MVFR LATER THIS EVENING
OR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT DUE TO WRLY WINDS AND SOME LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THRU THE
NIGHT...THOUGH. GUSTS INTO THE 20S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST. CLOUDS
MAY ALSO RETURN TO JST LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY WED AS UPSLOPE
CONTINUES...BUT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WHICH WOULD BE LOW ENOUGH
TO MAKE MVFR CIGS STAYS TO THE NORTH OF THE AIRFIELD. A TROUGH
CAUGHT IN THE FAST WESTERLIES WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THE CLOUDS
WED AFTN AND EVENING...AND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME -SHSN IN JST
AND CERTAINLY FOR BFD. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL STAY VFR FOR MUCH
OF THE TIME. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE TN VALLEY AND SRN
APPALACHIANS FOR LATE WEEK. THIS SHOULD MAKE FAIR FLYING.

OUTLOOK...
THU-FRI...NO SIG WX.
SAT-SUN...SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP WITH LOW CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO