Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 271817
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
217 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. LESS HUMID AIR WILL MOVE IN
MONDAY...WITH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AVERAGING COOLER THAN
NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVECTION MINIMUM SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON UNTIL
SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXITS TO THE EAST. EDGED TEMPS FOR TODAY UPWARD AS
LIMITED CLOUDS ALLOWING LOW LEVELS TO WARM NICELY...88F AT
HARRISBURG AT 17Z.

LOOKING AHEAD...STILL A SOMEWHAT COMPLEX EVOLUTION OF EVENTS IN
STORE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AS MOISTURE
SURGES IN ALONG NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET INTO W PA /DEWPOINT
INCREASES ON THE ORDER OF 5-8F/...COMBINED WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN ANTICIPATED TEMPS AT THE SURFACE AND SLOWLY LOWERING HEIGHTS
AND STRONG JET STREAK AS TROUGH APPROACHES SHOULD BRING TSTM
DEVELOPMENT INTO W PA BY LATE AFTERNOON...EXTENDING EASTWARD ALONG
THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY FROM KDUJ-KUNV-KMDT AND SOUTHWARD. STORMS
WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS IN SW PORTION OF CWA...BUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY
EXPECTED GENERALLY ALONG PA TURNPIKE HEADING EASTWARD. THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE /TAPPING INTO 1000-2000 J/KG
CAPE/ WITH ISO HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE...IN ADDITION TO BEING
POTENTIALLY SLOWER MOVERS THAT COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINS. IN NORTHEAST POART OF CWA...ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.

BEHIND THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH
THIS EVENING...LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY A SINGLE STRONG SQUALL LINE
OR SMALLER BROKEN SEGMENTS. GIVEN THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG SYSTEM
AND THE DYNAMICS ACCOMPANYING IT...SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD BET. WITH THE 850 LOW AND
JET EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH NORTHERN PA...THE STRONG VEERING
FLOW THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS WILL PROVIDE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHEAR
AND HELICITY SO WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE THREAT OF TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT.

THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING INTO EASTERN AREAS BY MIDNIGHT BRINGING
A RAPID END TO THE SEVERE THREAT AS MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO
THE REGION IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE AREA RIGHT INTO MONDAY. QUESTION REMAINS IF
SOME SORT OF DEFORMATION ZONE CAN FORM AND LINGER THE RAIN OVER
NORTHERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. OPERATIONAL
ECMWF SUGGESTS THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT NOT SURE ENOUGH TO THINK
ABOUT ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AT THIS HOUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
GOING ON THE IDEA THAT DEFORMATION ZONE RAINS DO NOT LINGER OVER
NORTHERN AREAS...RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE MONDAY AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. THE
LINGERING UPPER TROUGH AND COLD AIR ALOFT...COUPLED WITH MID
SUMMER HEATING WILL HELP SUPPORT AT LEAST THE MENTION OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. BUT WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE BEING SHUNTED
OFF TO THE EAST...THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE HIT AND MISS AS THE
DAY WEARS ON.

MONDAY WILL BE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF COOLER THAN NORMAL
DAYS...WITH HIGHS AVERAGING SOME 5-10 DEG BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN US
THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL BRING REFRESHINGLY DRY
CONDITIONS AS WE APPROACH THE LAST DAYS OF JULY. CAN`T IMAGINE A
LOT OF FOLKS COMPLAINING ABOUT COMFORTABLE SLEEPING WEATHER WITH
MILD DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND LOW HUMIDITY. THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE POSSIBILITY OF DIURNAL
INSTABILITY POPPING OFF A FEW SHOWERS.

MODELS ARE AGREEING BETTER ON THE PROSPECTS OF THE UPPER TROUGH
RETROGRADING LATER IN THE WEEK..ALLOWING MODERATING TEMPERATURES
AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR TO RETURN TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PESKY MVFR STRATUCU DECK OVER SW PA FINALLY LIFTING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ALL OF CENTRAL PA NOW VFR. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST IN MAJORITY OF LOCALES INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT
CLUSTER OF STORMS SLIDING IN FROM OHIO WILL IMPACT WESTERN TAFS
AFTER 22Z. ISO TSTMS ALSO EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN MTNS AND LOWER
SUSQ WITH LOCAL IMPACTS POTENTIALLY INCLUDING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
IN ADDITION TO LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS IN HEAVY RAIN.

WINDS WILL INCREASE AT ALL LEVELS THIS EVENING AS POTENT UPPER
LOW/COLD FRONT PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL PA. AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT
EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THE RISK
WILL BE AREAWIDE EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO MAINLY
NORTHERN HALF OF PA AFTER DARK. VSBY REDUCTIONS LIKELY IN
SHRA/TSRA TONIGHT...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

OUTLOOK...

MON...LOW CIG AND SHOWERS AND STORMS.
TUE-THU...ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/RXR
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN



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