Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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116
FXUS61 KCTP 202318
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
618 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An extended period of mild weather with well above normal
temperatures is expected through the end of the week. A weak
cool front will push through the state late Tuesday and Tuesday
night. A stronger cold front is expected for Friday into
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Expect fair weather overnight with increasing cirrus, as upper
level ridge axis shifts eastward from the Grt Lks. At the
surface, a back door cold front is over the Susq Valley at 22Z,
with a marked drop off in dewpoints noted across the eastern
half of the state. Near term models indicate this boundary will
stall out as it reaches the central mountains tonight, resulting
in the best radiational cooling across the eastern counties,
where min temps may need to be adjusted downward slightly. Euro
Ensemble MOS and latest HRRR support this idea of slightly
lower temps, with mins ranging from 25-30F across the eastern
counties, to the mid 30s over the Laurel Highlands.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A weakening front and the associated shearing upper shortwave
will bring increasing clouds to the area Tuesday. Should the
cloud cover not be as widespread or thick as expected, highs
could easily be several deg warmer than current projections.
Otherwise it will not be a bad day overall. Showers will be
slow to move east, leaving a dry day for the bulk of the
region. The exception is the far NW where it could rain
toward dusk.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Gradually milder temperatures will return for the extended
period as no genuine cold air push is in sight. High
temperatures in general will be 10 to 20 degrees above normal
with min temperatures mainly above freezing.

Upper ridge axis is forecast to be located east of the state
Tuesday night. The weak cold frontal boundary will produce a
brief period or two of showers for late Tuesday (Northwest) and
over the Central and Eastern parts of PA Tuesday night into the
mid morning hours of Wednesday.

Clouds associated with this weak frontal boundary will help to
suppress temps a bit (but they`ll still remain well above
average).

The flow turns back to the SW by Wednesday causing temps to
rebound.

The overall, large-scale pattern becomes more amplified late in
the week as a system over the central plains deepens and lifts
into the Great Lakes. Clouds will increase Thursday and Friday
with warm front lifting through, and bringing increasing rain
chances heading into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Looking back to last night, no low clouds were noted at
BFD or JST. Some fog at JST.

For tonight into Tuesday, just some high clouds prior to 00Z
Wed, as high pressure with dry air remains over the region.

Some showers late Tuesday evening into early Wednesday, as
a weak cold front moves across the region.

Outlook...

Wed...A.M. sub-VFR possible NW 1/3; otherwise VFR/no Sig Wx.

Thu...Sub-VFR possible with chance rain showers.

Fri...Sub-VFR possible with rain showers likely Friday night.
LLWS probable.

Sat...strong cold to bring Sub-VFR and possible thunderstorms.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Summary of record highs from 2/18 and 2/19...

Harrisburg: Record high of 69 degrees on 2/19. Previous record
high was 66 degrees set back in 1997.

Williamsport: Record high of 69 degrees on 2/19. Previous
record high was 60 degrees set back in 1997

Altoona: Record highs of 64 degrees on 2/19 and 66 degrees on
2/18 (tie). Previous record highs were 61 in 1994 (2/19) and 66
in 1981 (2/18).

Bradford: Record high of 62 degrees on 2/18. Previous record
high was 56 degrees set back in 1994.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...La Corte
LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner
AVIATION...Martin
CLIMATE...Martin



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