Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FXUS61 KCTP 202149
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
549 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL
FILL IN AS IT MOVES OVER THE STATE THEN RE-FORM JUST OFF THE
COAST ON TUESDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND KEEP IT DAMP AND SHOWERY INTO WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SFC LOW OVER LAKE HURON AND EVEN SOME THUNDER BACK UNDER THE
UPPER TROUGH/LOW AND ALONG THE FRONT INTO NWRN OH AT 18Z.
LOCALLY...STILL LOTS OF VIRGA ON THE RADAR BUT SO FAR NO OBS HAVE
HELD ANY PRECIP. THE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GET DEEPER THIS
EVENING AND SHOWERS SHOULD START BY 00Z IN THE FAR NW WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN THE SE AND A DRY SLOT IN BETWEEN PER THE
LATEST RAP/NAM. SFC LOW FILLS/BROADENS AND THE COLD FRONT WASHES
OUT BY 06Z AND BY 12Z...THE DOLDRUMS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL PA.
WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY LOW UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE
AREA...BUT IT WILL AT LEAST SPRINKLE OR DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT IN MOST
PLACES NW OF STATE COLLEGE. WILL CONTINUE ON WITH CURRENT CATG
POPS IN THE NWRN HALF AND CHCS IN THE SE HALF. TEMPS SHOULD STAY
VERY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR UNDER THE CLOUDS AND INITIALLY
SRLY WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOWERED PRESSURES WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AND BY TUES
NIGHT A DEEPER LOW WILL FORM NEAR ATLANTIC CITY. WILL NOT GAMBLE
AND WILL GO WITH THE VERY HIGH PROBABILITY FORECAST WHICH BY NO
CHANCE IS ALSO CONTINUITY. COOL BUT WET NRLY/WRLY FLOW AROUND THE
LOW WILL CREATE VERY CLOUDY AND DAMP WX OVER THE SHORT RANGE
PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE
FALLING HEIGHTS AND COOLER AIR ALOFT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP WITH THE SMALLEST OF BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT FOR NOW...AND PLAY THE COOL
AND STABLE CARD. DIURNAL RANGE TUES WILL BE JUST 8-12F IN MOST
PLACES...AND KEEP MAXES BELOW NORMALS.

8H TEMPS GENERALLY STAY ABOVE ZERO. BUT LATE TUES NIGHT/WED AM
MAY BE COLD ENOUGH OVER THE LAURELS TO HAVE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH
ANY RAIN SHOWERS ON THE HIGHEST ELEVS. HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE OUT
MENTIONS OF ANY MIX AT THIS POINT. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR COULD
GO TO OUR SOUTH WITH HELP FROM THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER
LOW...WHICH KEEPS THAT MARITIME AIR WRAPPING IN TO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNUSUALLY HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IS LEADING
TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE OVERWHELMINGLY DOMINANT MAIN FEATURE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CUT-OFF...SLOW-MOVING UPPER
LOW...PROGGED TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT DRIFTS OVERHEAD AND
REACHES THE EAST COAST /TO AROUND 550DM/ THEN PICK UP SOME SPEED
AS IT LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING
IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH ON WED...BUT SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL
WRAP AROUND THE STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW IN THE WRN MTNS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE WITH
SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING MID-WEEK. AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS UNDER THE UPPER SYSTEM OFF THE NJ/NY COAST...NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE AND BRING A PERIOD OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS WED INTO THU...AND POSS EVEN INTO FRI.

EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS
POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN. OTHERWISE...
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO BE THE RULE AT THE LONGEST OF
RANGES IN THE LOCAL FORECAST WITH CHANCE FOR JUST WEAK WAVES TO
IMPACT CENTRAL PA.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GRT LKS WILL BRING DETERIORATING
FLYING CONDS TO CENTRAL PA TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF LOWERING CIGS
AND SHOWERS. AS OF 21Z...JUST A FEW -SHRA ON RADAR AND WIDESPREAD
VFR CONDS REPORTED. HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN IS LIKELY TO
MOVE INTO THE NW MTNS THIS EVENING AND SCT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE DEVELOPING LOW
CIGS AT KBFD. MDLS SUGGEST AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
ASCENDING THE NW MTNS WILL CAUSE CIGS TO FALL INTO THE IFR
CATEGORY AT KBFD LATE TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...NO WORSE THAN MVFR
CONDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU TUE AM...WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY
TO NWRLY. THE RESULTING UPSLOPE FLOW OVR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS WILL
PLACE KJST AT RISK FOR IFR CIGS BTWN 11Z-15Z. EXPECT RISING CIGS
EVERYWHERE BY AFTN...AS MODEST DIURNAL WARMING OCCURS WITHIN THE
SFC TO 1KM LAYER. BY AFTN...MDL SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORT
MVFR CIGS AT KBFD/KJST...WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDS FURTHER
EAST. HOWEVER...COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL CREATE AN UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS PM SHRA AND EVEN A POSS
TSRA. ANY OF THESE SHRA/TSRA COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF DIP TO IFR
VSBY.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS NE AND W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM.
SCT SHRA THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

SAT...VFR/NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/FITZGERALD



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