Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KCTP 280735
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
335 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL COME
TO AN END BY THE END OF THE MONTH AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS WEEKEND. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE WHICH SHOULD FAVOR A
COOLER WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE MONTH OF JUNE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HRRR/MESO MDLS SHOW THE BATCH OF SHRA MOVING ACROSS N-CNTRL PA
THRU ABOUT 10Z. THE SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS LAKE
ERIE SHOULD TRAVERSE THE NW MTNS BY 12Z FOLLOWED BY A PUSH OF
DRIER AIR...WHICH WILL END PCPN RISK FOR THIS AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT.

THE TREND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE TO THE UPSIDE FOR FOG/HAZE AND
LOW CIGS OVER THE LOWER SQV EARLY THIS MORNING BASED ON RECENT
OBS. MOIST BLYR WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS...NARROWING DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AND LGT/VRB WINDS SHOULD ALL CONTRIBUTE TO LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG FORMATION/EXPANSION. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY GRIDS
MAY BE IN ORDER BEFORE SENDING FINAL NDFD GRIDS. ONCE THE LLVL
MSTR MIXES OUT BY MID MORNING...THIS AREA SEEMS PRIME FOR AT LEAST
SCT CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTN GIVEN COMBO OF BEST MSTR AND
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF WEAK SEWD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS
FCST TO SLOW/STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE
TONIGHT AND THEREFORE KEPT VERY LOW POPS IN THE FAR SRN TIER. A
SSELY LLVL FETCH MAY SPELL A LARGER AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL PA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

CORRIDOR FROM JST/AOO TO UNV AND IPT SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PCPN TODAY WITH FROPA EXPECTED PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING.

INCREASED MAX TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR
WHICH TAKES READINGS UP TO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90F IN THE LOWER
SQV. OVERNIGHT MINS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH TO
LOW-MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW AN INCREASINGLY HUMID/UNSTABLE
AIR MASS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED
DIURNAL PM CONVECTION. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MED RANGE GUIDANCE SIGNALS A CONTINUATION OF SUMMERLIKE WX
INTO SATURDAY...WITH 12Z GEFS SHOWING ANOMALOUS 500MB HGTS AND
SFC PRES OFF THE E COAST. A BETTER CHC OF SHRA/TSRA COMES LATE
SATURDAY WITH APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. SOME MDL TIMING ISSUES
WITH HOW FAST COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...FAIRLY STRONG SIGNAL FROM ALL MDL DATA THAT THE FIRST
COUPLE DAYS OF JUNE /MON AND TUE/ WILL BE COOL AND PERHAPS
SHOWERY...WITH FRONT STALLING OUT SOUTH OF PA AND POTENTIAL OF
OVERRUNNING RAIN/SHOWERS. HAVE DECREASED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...AND INCREASED THEM DUE TO THE STREAMING OF MOISTURE OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS THE BOUNDARY
WILL STALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE HAVE INCREASED
POPS ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-SHRA AT BFD SHOULD END BY 09Z FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF LOW CIGS.
UPSTREAM/NEARBY OBS SUGGEST IFR TO EVEN LOW IFR CIGS AND HAVE LOW
MVFR FCST. CONFIDENCE IS MARGINIAL GIVEN FAVORABLY LGT SSW UPSLOPE
FLOW AND TIGHT T/TD SPREAD BUT WILL UPDATE AS NECESSARY. OTHER
TROUBLE SPOT(S) WILL BE OVER THE SE AIRFIELDS IN ZNY SECTOR WITH
CVRG OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXPANDING THROUGH DAYBREAK. LNS WENT
DOWN QUICKER THAN FCST AND WILL NEED TO AMD. MDT WILL LKLY SEE A
SLOWER DOWNSIDE TREND AND CONFIDENCE IN IFR IS SLIGHTLY LOWER
THERE (VS. LNS). IPT WILL BE ANOTHER WILDCARD AND RECENTLY DROPPED
TO 2SM. VISBYS AT JST/AOO/UNV SHOULD STAY AOA HIGH MVFR RANGE.
ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE
AFTN WITH RISK OF ISOLD TO WDLY SCT TSTMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
AND ESPECIALLY SERN TERMINALS AHEAD SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
LIMITED CVRG AND RELATIVELY LOW POINT-PROBABILITY WILL PRECLUDE
MENTION IN TAFS ATTM. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL NEAR THE MD BORDER
WITH A DEVELOPING SSELY FLOW PERHAPS SUPPORTING A BROADER AREA OF
UPSLOW LOW CIGS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...PATCHY MVFR FOG/CIGS EARLY. ISOLD AFTERNOON TSTMS.

SAT...PATCHY MVFR FOG/CIGS EARLY. SCT-NMRS AFTERNOON TSTMS W/COLD
FROPA.

SUN-MON...VFR/MVFR CONDS WITH SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/TYBURSKI
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.