Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FXUS61 KCTP 202201
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
501 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON A GUSTY WEST
WIND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS SATURDAY
BEFORE AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
TEMPS OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY HAVE MANAGED TO RECOVER INTO THE
MID 40S...BUT COLDER AIR IS MOVING IN AND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS.

OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES OVER WESTERN AND EVEN CENTRAL
AREAS...ANY SIG PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT AND WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME FOCUSED OVER OUR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BELT AREAS OF THE NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF THE LAURELS.

MEAN WIND FROM THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE WNW THIS
EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE...PUSHING THE SNOW
BAND GRADUALLY SOUTH AND MORE INLAND. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE SNOW
SLIPPING INTO WARREN-MCKEAN COUNTIES BY AROUND 00Z AND CONTINUING
INTO THE EVENING. SNOW INTENSITIES LATER TONIGHT WILL LIKELY
BECOME LESS IMPRESSIVE AS THE OVER-LAKE TRAJECTORIES
SHORTEN...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WELL ALIGNED WINDS-LITTLE
WIND SHEAR CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST MID DAY FRIDAY.

HAVEN`T CHANGED THE CONFIGURATION OF THE HEADLINES OR THE
EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE OVERALL THINKING HAS NOT
CHANGED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO OVER THE
NORTH...TO AROUND 10-15 ABOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL SEE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BRINGING LOWERING INVERSION
HEIGHTS. FLURRIES AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED/NARROW
BANDS OF LES BLOWING WELL INLAND ON AN APPROX 310 DEG AXIS MAY
AFFECT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND COMMUNITIES ALONG
THE WEST BRANCH OF THE SUSQ RIVER...BUT THIS THREAT WILL WANE AS
WELL AS THE HIGH APPROACHES.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR...IF NOT A FEW DEGREES COLDER
THAN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE IN PROGRESS AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WITH STRONG RIDGES BUILDING TOWARD THE WEST COAST
AND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND DEEP TROUGHING CARVING OUT OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD
BETTER AGREEMENT CONCERNING STREAM INTERACTION WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO YIELD A DEEP LOW LIFTING NWD THRU THE TN/OH VLYS INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES BY EARLY MONDAY. A SURGE OF ABNORMALLY WARM/MOIST AIR
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PCPN /MOSTLY LKLY IN
THE FORM OF PLAIN RAIN/ SUN-MON BEFORE COLDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT BRINGS A DRYING TREND ALONG WITH
COLDER TEMPS BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A GUSTY WEST WIND OF 15-25KT TODAY WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TO
10-20KT OVERNIGHT.

ALL TAF SITES REMAIN VFR AS OF EARLY EVENING...AND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE POSSIBILITY PERSISTS OF
AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER OR TWO BRINGING BRIEFLY REDUCED
CONDITIONS...AS ANY WIDESPREAD SNOW BANDS REMAIN NORTH OF THE
REGION UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.

LATER TONIGHT THE PATTERN WILL SETTLE INTO A MORE FAMILIAR ONE
WHERE MOST OF THE REGION IS VFR WHILE THE HIGHER WESTERN AND
NORTHERN ELEVATIONS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR WITH OCNL IFR IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. BRADFORD STANDS THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS SETTLE INTO THE
NWRN PART OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. BRADFORD WILL LIKELY HOLD ONTO REDUCED CONDITIONS THE
LONGEST AS FLOW OFF THE LAKE CONTINUES TO DRAG MOISTURE AND SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...BUT EVEN THERE IMPROVEMENT
IS LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

MON...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

TUE...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. VFR
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER



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