074
FXUS63 KGLD 102041
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
241 PM MDT Fri May 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms are forecast for this weekend.
  Severe weather over the weekend is not expected at this time.

- Severe weather potential may return by the middle of next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 141 PM MDT Fri May 10 2024

A 500 mb low pressure system is still stalled out over the Great
Basin. This afternoon and into the evening, this will send out a
weak shortwaves across the Great Plains, creating enough forcing to
start some light precipitation, but not enough for anything
organized or severe. Until about 0-3Z this evening, light showers
will be over eastern Colorado, mostly just creating virga as there
is a moderately pronounced dry layer near and above the surface.
Some light rain accumulation is not entirely out of the question for
these locations, but anything more than a hundredth or two is
unexpected. These light showers could spill over into far western
Kansas, but confidence of this occurring is less than 20%.

Saturday afternoon and into the overnight hours look to be a
different story as the low pressure system starts moving to the
east. This will provide enough forcing for some slightly more
organized precipitation, including a few thunderstorms. The threat
for severe weather is low, but not 0. MUCAPE looks to be limited to
around 300-800 J/KG and effective shear is about 15-20 kts or less.
This could lead to some pop-up storms that are quickly lived. Before
about 0Z Sunday, any storm that rapidly grows in an area of higher
CAPE could burst out, so we will need to keep an eye out for strong
winds with decaying storms tomorrow.

Sunday afternoon looks to be the "best" chance in the short-term for
some impactful precipitation and severe storms, although no
parameters look very impressive. A weak 850 mb lee low is expected
to form in the very early morning hours Sunday and move across the
CWA in the mid-day. Supplied with a 20-35 kts LLJ, we will have
plenty of moisture to work with, which does cause some concern for
flooding potential. However, due to little rainfall over the
previous week and soundings show upshear speeds around 20-25 kts (a
little fast for flooding), there is only about 5-10% confidence
flooding would occur. PWATS are near 1 inch and there is an fairly
elevated freezing level which adds to the confidence, but does not
make it certain. CAPE looks to be around 1,000-1,500 J/kg with EBWD
shear around 25-30 kts, making low-end severe storms possible (~5%
chance).

Saturday looks to warm into the upper 60s and 70s, however cloud
cover could lower these temperatures 3-5 degrees if the clouds
become more widespread and move farther east early. Sunday will be
cooler with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s, due to the low pressure
system moving a cold front across the area. Tonight will cool into
the 40s; some locations in eastern Colorado could see upper 30s if
the clouds clear out early and the winds become calm. Tomorrow night
will be warmer as the LLJ will be moving warm, moist air into the
region. The western CWA will remain in the mid 40s but the eastern
CWA looks to stay in the mid 50s. Sunday night will be slightly
cooler behind the cold front, likely down into the 40s to low
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 240 PM MDT Fri May 10 2024

The extended forecast begins with an upper trough over southern
Kansas and northern Oklahoma.  Low pressure will move across the
region, bringing a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms to the
region.  Right now, the highest chances (30-50%) will be for areas
along and southeast of a line from McCook, Nebraska to Goodland,
Kansas.  Expected temperatures will be in the low to mid-70s for
highs and the low to mid-40s for lows.

Tuesday through the end of the forecast, there will be a shift in
the pattern.  Weak ridging followed by westerly flow will bring
warmer air into the Tri-State area.  The morning is expected to be
dry, with at least a 10-30% chance of a few showers and storms in
the afternoon.  Showers and thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday
night.  Highs Tuesday afternoon will be unseasonably warm, with many
areas reaching the low 80s. Normal highs are in the low 70s for this
time of the year. Overnight lows will range from the mid-40s in
eastern Colorado to the low 50s in the eastern part of the CWA.

Mid-to-late week, a disturbance will move into the region.  This
will bring temperatures back to around normal, with highs in the
upper 60s to low 70s.  Lows will be in the low to mid-40s.  There
will be a chance of some precipitation during this timeframe,
although timing and location is uncertain at this point in time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1049 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK.
Some CU between 3,500-9,500 ft AGL are moving into the region,
but are not expected to impact flight categories. Winds will
remain north-northwesterly during the day and this evening
around 3Z, become lighter and slowly shift to be from the
south.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Wekesser
AVIATION...CA