Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 170817

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
217 AM MDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 216 PM MDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Forecast issues will be how cool it gets tonight and onset of
thunderstorms tomorrow. Precipitation should be done by the
beginning of the period. Winds will become light and variable and
stay the lightest in the eastern portion of the area. So lowered the
lows a little with the eastern portion of the area having the
potential to be cooler.

Surface boundary moves into the far western portion of the area late
tomorrow. At the same time shortwave trough will move over the top
of this. There looks to be no cap. So thunderstorms should develop
in eastern Colorado. Severe parameters would indicate that
thunderstorms will have a chance to become severe, especially right
after this period.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 217 AM MDT Thu Aug 17 2017

At the start of the extended the models show the region under the
influence of upper level southwesterly wind flow. On the surface, a
thermal trough over the west coast, a frontal boundary over the
northern Plains and high pressure over the mid-west.

A surface trough looks to pass over the local area during the day
Sunday and allow for a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some
storms may become severe. On Monday, looks like a low may develop
over the local area. If this holds, severe storms are possible in
the afternoon.

By Tuesday, the upper level flow will become more westerly and then
northwesterly as a longwave trough passes over southern Canada and
northern U.S. and makes way for an upper level ridge to build over
the Rockies and the western Plains. At the same time, the surface
high pressure, over the midwest, will move towards the eastern
seaboard and allow the surface boundary to move south of our local
area. This will produce showers and thunderstorms along the
boundary, as it passes. Then expect dry conditions on Wednesday and
Thursday with slightly below normal high temperatures.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1130 PM MDT Wed Aug 16 2017

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Surface high is over the
Tri-State Area and will continue to move slowly south through the
rest of the night. This will cause winds to turn to the south for
both sites. Am still expecting thunderstorms to develop in East
Central Colorado late Thursday afternoon and move east. Storm
coverage may increase as storms approach KMCK, but have very low
confidence of any storms approaching the site at this time. Storm
coverage will be even lower for KGLD.




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