Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 061943
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
143 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE
PERSISTED WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER
70S. SOME LIGHT RW/DZ IS REMAINING MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...CLEARING OVER THE TRI STATE REGION IS EXPECTED
TO GO SLOW FROM THE NORTH...AIDED BY SURFACE RIDGE NOSING SOUTH AND
EAST ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ROCKIES OUT INTO THE PLAINS
REGION. HAVE MENTIONED -RW/-DZ FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND FAR WESTERN ZONES WHICH WILL STILL BE IN CLOUD
COVER DUE TO PROXIMITY OF EXITING FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TONIGHT
ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT OF THE THINNING/LESSENING OF CURRENT CLOUD
SHIELD OVER THE AREA. WITH A NORTH-SOUTH CLEARING EXPECTED...HAVE
GONE FOR COOLEST LOWS ACROSS THE NORTH...WARMEST SOUTH BUT ALL AREAS
WILL SEE 50S. WITH LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CLEARING SKIES AND
WINDS SHIFTING TO LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST...HAVE
PUT IN MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FROM 10Z-13Z.

FOR TUESDAY...ANOTHER COOL...NICE DAY ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE TRI
STATE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE STILL PROVIDING COOLER AIR ON AN
EASTERLY FETCH. REMNANTS OF FRONT OVER COLORADO EXPECTED TO GIVE
WESTERN ZONES MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN FOR PORTION OF THE DAY WITH SOME
LIGHT RW FOR EASTERN COLORADO AROUND MIDDAY. 850 MB TEMPS +14C TO
+18C WILL AFFORD THE REGION DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S...COOLEST WEST
WHERE MORE CLOUD EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER THE WEST COAST.  ALTHOUGH THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITH THE MAIN FLOW COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA
WITH DEEP SATURATION...WHICH WOULD INDICATE AN EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PROCESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

A NEGATIVELY TILTED 700 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY...SO THERE WILL BE MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  LAPSE RATES ALOFT VARY BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000
J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER THIS IS MOSTLY BECAUSE OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ABOVE 700 MB.  SURFACE BASED CAPE IS MUCH LESS
CONSIDERING THE STRONG CAP IN PLACE VIA GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
700 MB TEMPS BETWEEN 12 AND 15C.  WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY
LACKING...SURFACE HEATING WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN HELPING
CONVECTION TO BREAK THE CAP AND DEVELOP STORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.  THE ECMWF FORECAST HAS
BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...SO TENDED TO
SIDE MORE WITH THIS PARTICULAR MODEL IN KEEPING THE FORECAST MOSTLY
DRY.  WITH THE BROAD RIDGE RETROGRADING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...EXPECTING HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

EXPECTING A MVFR/IFR MIX THRU 20Z THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY
BKN015-025...ALTHOUGH BKN009 POSSIBLE WITH 5SM IN FOG AND
SPRINKLE/SHOWER. AFT 20Z...TRANSITION TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH
BKN050-060 THRU 00Z TONIGHT...THEN SCT-BKN100-120. 6SM IN FOG MAY
DEVELOP BY 12Z TUESDAY. WINDS NORTHERLY 15-30KTS THRU 00Z TONIGHT
THEN NE 5-10KTS SHIFTING TO THE ESE 5-10KTS BY 12Z TUESDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN


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