Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 230843
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
243 AM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY AND TONIGHT.  A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY
AND SHIFT INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.  A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF SUBSIDENCE MOVING ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL WILL REDUCE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS UNTIL AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
PLAN TO CONTINUE LOWER POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY ACROSS
THE KANSAS ZONES OR EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SLIGHT CHANCE AND
CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL TREND OF
DECREASING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST. SUBSIDENCE WILL MOVE INTO THE
FA EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES AWAY. SUBSIDENCE WILL
BE OVER THE FA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CONSEQUENTLY, POPS WILL BE
NIL FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES THIS MORNING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE FA SO HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG FOR A FEW HOURS.

MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE LOWER 80S TODAY AND INTO THE MID
80S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE
UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014

MILD TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR
RAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FRIDAY TO MID TO
UPPER 70S SATURDAY/SUNDAY/MONDAY. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. BEST
PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MAINLY HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO LACK OF IMPRESSIVE CAPE AND INVERTED V
SOUNDINGS INDICATING DRY AIR BELOW ABOUT 700MB FOR MONDAY.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A STRONG RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS WITH A WEAK RETROGRADING UPPER LOW MEANDERING WEST FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH/UPPER
LOW OVER THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. BY LATE SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE OVER NORTHERN UTAH/SOUTHERN IDAHO...WHICH WILL PLACE THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. THERE IS A LARGE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES FOR LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE AT LEAST
SOME CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GFS HAS
BETTER FORCING FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF WHICH
KEEPS THE BEST LIFT FARTHER NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

MODERATE SHOWERS AT KMCK AND THUNDERSTORMS AT KGLD WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD. SHOWERS MAY LINGER LONGER AT KMCK. STRATUS AND FOG WILL
BEGIN TO DEVELOP WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DECREASING
WINDS/CLEARING SKIES ALONG KS/CO STATE LINE. THIS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT KGLD WITH AT LEAST TEMPO IFR CIG/VIS AROUND 12Z. EXPECTING
BETTER LOW LEVEL MIXING (SURFACE-BL WINDS) TO LIMIT FOG/STRATUS
AT KMCK. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THOUGH IN THE EVENT WINDS GO CALM.
AFTER MID MORNING VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...DR



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