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000
FXUS63 KGLD 201717
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1117 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013

VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE DAKOTAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVING EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK VORTICITY
LOBE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. EXPECT THE
AIR MASS TO BE ONLY SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES
AROUND 300 J/KG...BUT UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES CONTINUE TO
BRING COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION...AND EXPECT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO REACH ONLY THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. DECENT
850-700 MB FLOW WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE WHICH WILL PRODUCE NORTHWEST
WINDS 15-30 KNOTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL ADVECT OVER THE AREA...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN LOWS THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013

TUESDAY...MODELS SHOW WEAK UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITH THE FINAL
SHORTWAVE FROM THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE AIR MASS IN THE LOW LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO DRY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SATURATION WILL NOT
OCCUR BELOW 600 MB BY THE AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE
RELATIVELY STABLE...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AFTER 18Z. 850
MB TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW DEGREES CELSIUS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
BUT SURFACE WINDS DO NOT SUPPORT A MASSIVE WARM/UP.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...500 MB RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS AS DAKOTA LOW EJECTS EAST AND THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXPECT WARM AIR ADVECTION TO BEGIN IN EARNEST
WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY AS SUBSIDENCE INHIBITS SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SITUATED OVER THE AREA. BY THURSDAY
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SUBTLE
MID/UPPER HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE AS AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST AND BEGINS INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER.
SURFACE THETA-E VALUES INCREASE AS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES FAVOR NORTHWEST MOVEMENT OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THIS IS COINCIDENT WITH THE STRENGTHENING/SHARPENING OF LEE SIDE
TROUGH/DRYLINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THESE WILL
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR AREA AND NECESSITATE DAILY
SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DIVERGE OVER THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY BEYOND FRIDAY. NEVERTHELESS...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL GENERALLY FAVOR A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
UPPER FLOW PATTERN WITH SUBTLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IMPACTING THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND EVEN BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013

SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOW INCREASING TREND FOR SHOWERS THAT
WILL LIKELY IMPACT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK FROM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL
EARLY THIS EVENING. EVEN WITH SHOWERS EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
LAST AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS LOWER CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. WIND WILL
DECREASE SOME OVERNIGHT AND THEN PICK UP AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...BOWERS
AVIATION...FS