Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 010833
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
233 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW AN AXIS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL PLAINS BETWEEN A LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.  THIS AXIS HAS BEGUN TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST DURING THE DAY INTO
THE TRI-STATE AREA.  AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA.
THE TROUGH HAS SLOWLY BEEN MOVING BACK WEST.  EAST OF IT
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE BEEN BREEZY WHILE WEST OF IT NORTH WINDS
HAVE BEEN BREEZY.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON EXPECT THE AXIS OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA WHILE THE SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES WEST.  AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE AREA.  MEANWHILE EXPECT SOME ISOLATED
STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON AS LIFT
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE STRENGTHENS.

TONIGHT STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
STRENGTHEN FROM BOTH THE NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE SURFACE TROUGH.
THIS SHOULD HELP STORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS
LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH INCREASES.  OVERNIGHT
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO FILL AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST CAUSING STORM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH.

AM CONFIDENT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL SEE STORM
ACTIVITY...THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW WIDE SPREAD WILL THE ACTIVITY
BE.  THE LIFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS VERY
STRONG...AND LOOKING AT VARIOUS THETA LEVELS...FAIRLY DEEP.  HOWEVER
THE LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS OVER THE CENTRAL PART WILL
LIKELY SERVE TO HINDER STORM ACTIVITY DESPITE THE STRONG LIFT...SO
HAVE LOWER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL THAN WOULD LIKE CONSIDERING THE
STRONG LIFT OVER THE WEST.  DOES LOOK LIKE MOST OF THE STORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE EITHER WEST OR NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...BUT YUMA
COUNTY WILL STILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT RECEIVING MEASURABLE
RAINFALL...WITH LESS OF A CHANCE FOR LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART.  DO HAVE SOME CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL OVER THE WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE ENTERING THE AREA.  WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT
OVER THE AREA AND THE SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY STORMS TO DEVELOP ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO
COMING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT FROM THE WEST IN THE MORNING THEN TURN TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS SHOW A DEEP AND
COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY WITH A COLD LOW FORMING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE OVER OUR AREA AND
STARTS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

THIS SETS UP A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE TRI
STATE AREA FOR THE LATER PART OF THE PERIOD. THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE TO BE ADVECTED OVER THE AREA FRO THE PACIFIC REGION...
MUCH LIKE IT IS NOW. ALSO SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROTATE
THROUGH IS FLOW. THIS COULD PRODUCE AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH REPEATED
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL... WITH THE WESTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE
AREA HAVING THE BEST CHANCE.

AT THE START OF THE WEEK A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. THIS WILL PRODUCE COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH THE HIGHS
ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE LOWER 80S ON LABOR DAY AND TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT BOTH TAF SITES FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
NEAR-TERM AVIATION THREAT REMAINS SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.
OVERALL...DO NOT ANTICIPATE STORMS TO IMPACT TAF SITES. MENTIONED
VCTS AT KGLD WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST NORTH AND VCSH AT KMCK
WHERE A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS LOCATED. IN ADDITION...
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW HAS PROVIDED GUSTY WINDS AT KGLD. OUTFLOW IS
APPROACHING KMCK BUT RECENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE ONLY A WIND
SHIFT WITHOUT GUSTINESS SHOULD BE EXPECTED. DECREASING CLOUD
COVER LIKELY BY LATE MORNING AS DISSIPATING REMNANT CLOUD COVER
SPREADS NORTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DAYTIME CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS RETURN AS A
SURFACE TROUGH EDGES BACK NORTHWEST.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...RRH



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