Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 090853
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
153 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

TODAY-TONIGHT...FORECAST AREA UNDER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EAST COAST AND HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN 1/4 OF THE
COUNTRY EXTENDING INTO PARTS OF CANADA. IN ADDITION TO BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS STREAMING DOWN FROM
THE NORTH. MUCH OF THE CLOUDINESS WILL IMPACT AREAS GENERALLY EAST
OF A LINE FROM TRENTON TO GOVE. FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST A BIT
TONIGHT ALLOWING CLOUDINESS TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND WINDS TO
DECREASE. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 7-9F FROM MONDAYS READINGS
SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND EAST (MCCOOK TO
GOVE)...MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...WARMEST IN
THE TRIBUNE AND LEOTI AREA WHERE THERE IS NO SNOWPACK. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOESNT CHANGE MUCH BUT
BELOW IT 850MB TEMPERATURES SOAR PER NAM/GFS. UNDER FULL MIXING
HIGHS WOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S TO AROUND 70...HOWEVER WE HAVE TO
ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING SNOWPACK. BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS AND MOS
GUIDANCE SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS ACCOUNTING FOR PARTIAL
850MB MIXING. THUS WILL GO WITH HIGH RANGING FROM AROUND 50 IN
NORTON COUNTY TO AROUND 70 IN TRIBUNE. WITH SURFACE WINDS FROM THE
WEST TRIBUNE WOULD GET FLOW FROM AREAS WITH NO SNOWPACK AND POSSIBLY
HIT ABOUT 71-74 DEGREES. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GFS/NAM TRY TO BACK
A COLD FRONT INTO THE FAR EAST/NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH
LIGHT WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE TO CREATE SOME STRATUS CLOUDS. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 20S.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS AGREE THAT UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY WITH POSSIBLY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH
FROM THE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH EXTENSIVE
STRATUS GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON TO OAKLEY AND GOVE
DURING THE DAY BEFORE IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH LOW TO MID 40S EAST...UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE...WARMEST AGAIN IN THE TRIBUNE AND LEOTI AREAS.
LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE TEMPERATURES. SATELLITE SHOWING AN
AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
AT JET LEVEL...THE CANADIAN/GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
ECMWF/NAM. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE FINE HOWEVER THEY WERE NOT
QUITE STRONG ENOUGH WITH THE VERY STRONG/AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE.
THE GFS/UKMET WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE CANADIAN/ECMWF.

THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF ON THE SURFACE
WIND/PRESSURE PATTERN. THE MODELS TENDED TO BE A LITTLE WARM ON THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE CANADIAN DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN
THE SREF/GFS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY ADJUSTMENTS. IF YOU BELIEVE
THE MORE AGGRESSIVE NAM WE COULD END UP HAVING A DECENT STRATUS
SHIELD. EVEN WITH THE SNOW COVER...AREA HAS NOT BEEN GETTING ANY
FOG. CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR COMING IN FROM LOW LEVELS...BELIEVE
THE STRATUS AND ESPECIALLY FOG IS GETTING OVERDONE. KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE GUIDANCE.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOWING WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS...AT DIFFERENT SPEEDS...BLOWING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY. NORMALLY THAT WOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO A BIG WARMUP.
HOWEVER...THESE WINDS WILL BE BLOWING ACROSS A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL
SNOWFIELD. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUN. GUT FEELING WOULD SAY THE
MODELS HAVE IT TOO WARM. TOUGH CALL BUT ENDED UP MAKING ONLY
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES I INHERITED.

UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING
THE NIGHT. AS A RESULT THE MODELS ARE BRINGING IN THE NEXT SURFACE
HIGH INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...AND PUSHING A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. CONSIDERING
WHERE THE SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH AM THINKING THE MODELS MAY BE A
LITTLE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS BUT DEFINITELY SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF
THE FRONT MAKING IT INTO THE FAR EASTERN PORTION. AGAIN WHAT IS IN
THE GRIDS ALREADY LOOKS REASONABLE AND ONLY MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN PORTION.

THURSDAY...CONTINUED TRICKY TO PROBLEMATIC TEMPERATURE FORECAST. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE COLD AIR MAKES IT INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA AND IT MAY NOT RETREAT VERY FAST. IT LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE A
TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE
THEY DECREASE...AND DO THAT THE MOST WHERE THE SNOW COVER IS AT.
DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHAT WILL
HAPPEN.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS PROGRESS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
AREA INTO FRIDAY WITH DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THOSE DIFFERENCES CENTER AROUND HOW MUCH THE MODELS PUSH THE RIDGE
EAST...FLATTEN THE RIDGE...AND WHAT THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. THE ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE MORE
PROGRESSIVE/LESS AMPLIFIED AND STRONGER WITH THE INCOMING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAN THE GFS.

THE GFS HOLDS MORE OF THE TROUGH BACK FURTHER WEST AND HAS STRONGER
RIDGING OVER THE AREA FOR MORE OF THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOWER ARRIVAL
OF THE SHORTWAVE THAN THE OTHER TWO MODELS. AFTER THIS TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN ON MONDAY.

ONE OR TWO MODELS HAVE SOME LIGHT QPF NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER AS HAS BEEN THE CASE LATELY IT APPEARS THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO ONLY HAVE MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND LITTLE
TO NO MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS WITH A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER AT THE
BOTTOM. THE CRH INIT GAVE ME DRY POPS AND HAVE NO PROBLEM WITH THAT
AND WILL MAKE NO CHANGES.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD AIR TEMPORARILY RETREATS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. THEN THE NEXT ARCTIC HIGH MOVES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AND PUSHES A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THAT SHOULD BRING MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THEN AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA...IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD AIR GETS PUSHED
TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY...QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR EAST DOES IT GO.
WARMER AIR AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

SO EVEN WITHOUT THE LINGERING SNOW COVER...WE LOOK TO HAVE A
WAFFLING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN WHERE THE COLD AIR WILL BE/HOW FAST IT WILL COME BACK
IN...AND COLLABORATION WITH MY NEIGHBORS...CHOSE TO KEEP WHAT THE
INIT GAVE ME. HOWEVER...A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LOOKS FAIRLY
CERTAIN AND A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS...THAN WHAT THE MODELS/FORECAST
DEPICTS...IS POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY AND MAYBE SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 150 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

KGLD...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
30KTS EXPECTED TODAY QUICKLY FALLING BELOW 10KTS AROUND 23Z.
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WEST WINDS NEAR 12KTS
EXPECTED.

KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10KTS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A SMALL WINDOW FOR 12KTS
WINDS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT WINDS FROM THE WEST
AROUND 7KTS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE
X-SECTIONS OVER THE TERMINAL SUGGEST CEILINGS AROUND 4K FT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...99


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