Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 251730

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1130 AM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Issued at 1130 AM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Update to forecast to transition final area of mod/hvy rw/trw
southeast and out of the CWA. Still have some leftover showers
east...and they will diminish in coverage over the next couple
hours. Breaks in areal coverage of clouds showing will
wait on tweaking forecasted daytime highs to see what rebound
occurs. For the afternoon hrs...kept in iso/sct rw/trw.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 400 AM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Today-tonight...moisture in the 700-500mb layer increases from the
northwest through sunrise before starting to exit the area to the
east/southeast during the afternoon hours as a weather disturbances
moves through. Area is under influence of right rear quad of upper
jet helping support shower and thunderstorm production. Plentiful
moisture in the 850-700mb layer and an east/southeast wind will
cause high temperatures to be cooler then previously expected.
Blending 850mb temperatures from the past several days and
mos/2m/bias corrected grids supports readings in the low to mid 70s.
Could see a few showers/isolated thunderstorms generally east of
the CO/KS border tonight. Low temperatures in the low to mid 50s.

Monday-Monday night...most of the area looks to be precipitation
free during the morning as drier air aloft moves in. During the
afternoon hours a slight increase in mid level moisture is forecast
while below 700mb moisture remains quite high per model rh. Cant
rule out some thunderstorms in the Flagler area and east of the
CO/KS border. For the nighttime hours front range convection per 700-
500mb moisture (NAM) is forecast to slide southeast into our west
and southern zones through midnight then generally out of the area
by sunrise. Afternoon temperatures in the low 80s looks good per
850mb temperatures. Low temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Tuesday-Tuesday night...southerly winds increase through the day
allowing low level moisture to stream into the area. Afternoon
temperatures rise into the low 90s supporting modest instability. A
weather disturbance is forecast to move into the area during the mid
to late afternoon hours supporting some low chance pops for
thunderstorms generally along/west of the CO/KS border. This
disturbance continues east during the night supporting a continued
chance for showers/thunderstorms. Low temperatures in the mid 50s to
around 60 in far eastern Colorado, low to upper 60s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 314 AM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Wednesday-Thursday: Both days will see zonal flow aloft with
embedded shortwaves moving across the area. Each afternoon and
evening, there will be a chance for thunderstorms, some which may
become strong or severe. For temps, both days look to be near
climatological normals.

Friday-Sunday: A cold front should push through the area some time
Thursday night into Friday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will
be possible again Friday afternoon through the overnight. Boundary
does not progress very far south of the CWA before becoming
stationary across southern and eastern portions of Kansas by Friday
evening. On Saturday, NW flow aloft and a series of shortwaves will
bring another chance of thunderstorms. As for now, biggest threat
area looks to be along and north of I-70. Model soundings for
Saturday suggest a chance for more strong to severe storms if
convection can initiate. Temperatures will gradually warm through
the period, ending up above normal by Sunday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1121 AM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

For KGLD...Looking for a VFR/MVFR mix thru the period with
BKN035-040 giving way to BKN025 by 00z Monday before becoming
scattered by 08z. VCSH thru 20z this afternoon. Winds...ESE
10-20kts thru 08z Monday...then S around 10kts.

For KMCK...Looking for VFR conditions thru the period...w/
BKN060-100. VCSH thru 20z this afternoon. Winds...ESE around 10kts
thru 05z Monday...then light/variable.




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