Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 202056
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
356 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER FLORIDA
PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO BE REINFORCED BY SECONDARY HIGH DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OVER THE MIDWEST THIS EVENING WITH THE HIGH CENTERED
CONSOLIDATING OVER THE OH VALLEY BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

AS IS OFTEN THE CASE...WINDS HAVE REMAINED A LITTLE MORE BACKED
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON RATHER THAN VEERING NORTHEAST. EVEN WITH JET
INDUCED HIGH CLOUD COVER THOUGH...HIGH TEMPS HAVE MANAGED TO CLIMB
INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW 70S IN THE SOUTH.

TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AN THEN FALL QUICKLY
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID-UPPER 40S ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF
I-4 AND IN RURAL AREAS OF OSCEOLA AND BREVARD...TO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOW 60S ALONG COASTAL BREVARD AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES.

WHILE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN BACKED...FURTHER ALOFT WINDS
SHIFT MORE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH TIME TAPPING BACK INTO THE MOISTURE
POOLED ACROSS S FL AND BAHAMAS. THERE LOOKS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE AT
LOW TOPPED ATLC SHOWERS SOUTH OF VERO BEACH LATE TONIGHT WITH A FEW
MOVING INTO THE COAST.

FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH CENTER MIGRATES TOWARDS THE EAST COAST WITH
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS FL PENINSULA. BREEZY EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A
FEW MORE ATLANTIC SHOWERS AND CONVERGENCE BANDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE TREASURE COAST. HOWEVER EXPECTED OVERALL AMOUNTS TO REMAIN
LOW. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY BREVARD SOUTHWARDS
IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...WITH A
FEW UPPER 70S ACROSS MARTIN COUNTY.

WEEKEND...AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE VA CAPES EARLY SAT
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND MOISTURE FROM OLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL
LIFT NORTH. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH BRISK EAST FLOW TO INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. FOR SAT...HAVE INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES TO 50 PERCENT ALONG THE TREASURE COAST DECREASING
TO 20 PERCENT WELL INLAND OVER LAKE COUNTY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST SAT NIGHT ESP ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH OF THE AREA. THEN THE FA WILL BE SQUARELY IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW AND HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO
MID 80S.

MON-THU...CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES AND WARM TEMPS FORECAST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE EASTWARD ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY/TUES NIGHT. SOME
LINGERING PRECIP EXPECTED BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT/WED DUE
TO OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AND FORCED ASCENT FROM STRONG 250MB JET
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. COAST. TEMPS WILL FALL TO BELOW NORMAL
VALUES BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS COLD AS THE
MOST RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS
TIME WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR. BKN HIGH CLOUDS FL200 AND ABOVE THROUGH THE DAY.
OCCASIONAL MARINE SCT STRATOCU ALONG COAST. LIGHT SHRA OVER
ATLC...A FEW MOVING INTO COAST SOUTH OF KVRB MAINLY AFTER 21/06Z
THOUGH A FEW ARE POSSIBLE EARLIER. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS FRI AFTN
BECOMING EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
10-15KTS AND GUSTS INTO THE 20KTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG TREASURE
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-FRIDAY...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTY
OVERNIGHT VEERING EAST-NORTHEAST BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL ALSO BRING SPEEDS UP DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND WE MAY BE FLIRTING WITH SCA CONDITIONS SOUTH OF THE
CAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS CLOSER TO 20KTS.

SEAS WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE COAST CONTINUE AROUND 2 TO 4 FT
WITH 5-6FT OVER GULF STREAM. CHOPPY SEA STATE CONTINUES ESPECIALLY
OVER GULF STREAM DUE TO OPPOSING N-NE WINDS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION.

SAT-SUN...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE VA/NC COAST SAT
THEN SEAWARD SUN AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TO THE GREAT LAKES. ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES 20-25 KNOTS SAT WITH A
LONG EASTERLY FETCH PRODUCING SEAS UP TO 10 FEET OFFSHORE. FLOW
VEERS OUT OF THE SOUTH SUNDAY WITH SOME DECREASE IN SPEED BUT
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

SOUTHWEST FLOW MON AND TUE NOT AS STRONG AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT
BUT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS POSSIBLE TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  47  72  61  77 /   0  10  10  30
MCO  50  75  60  79 /   0   0  10  20
MLB  56  75  68  79 /  10  10  20  40
VRB  60  77  69  79 /  10  20  20  40
LEE  45  73  58  78 /   0   0  10  20
SFB  49  74  60  79 /   0   0  10  20
ORL  51  74  61  79 /   0   0  10  20
FPR  61  76  69  80 /  10  20  20  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOSES
LONG TERM....KELLY







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