Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 220746
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
345 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...ABOVE NORMAL LATE SEPTEMBER RAIN CHANCES ARE ON TAP...

CURRENT...SURFACE METARS PLACE THE STALLED/WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT
THE NORTHERNMOST EDGE OF THE MELBOURNE CWA. A RATHER AMORPHOUS PRES
PATTERN IN ACROSS ECFL WITH A WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE BAHAMAS
AND A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE SERN STATES. MID LEVEL REFLECTION
OF THE TROUGH ALOFT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...WITH THE FEATURE NOW MOST
PRONOUNCED AT 300-200MB OVER THE ERN GOMEX.

TODAY/TONIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN QSTNRY ACROSS CTRL FL
THE NEXT H24 AS A H50 SHORT WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES SEWD INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH...EVENTUALLY CUTTING OFF JUST TO THE NORTH OF FL...MUCH LIKE
ITS PREDECESSOR LATE LAST WEEK. LOW LEVEL ATLC RIDGE NOSED WWD INTO
THE BAHAMAS INCREASING SRLY INFLOW INTO THE BDRY...WHILE MID LEVEL
SWRLY FLOW ALSO INCREASES ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE TROUGH. THIS
SPELLS AN INCREASE IN MEAN LAYER MOISTURE AREAWIDE...ALONG WITH
HIGHER AFTERNOON/EVENING RAIN CHANCES. WHILE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL TAPER OFF A LITTLE AFTER SUNSET...PLAN TO KEEP AT LEAST
A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...GIVEN VERY
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE COUPLED WITH APPROACH OF THE H50 TROUGH TO
THE NORTH. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH CLIMO NORMS IN THE U80S...A FEW
DEGS COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

TUE-THU...THE AXIS OF THE PARENT MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST
U.S. AND EASTERN CANADA LIFTS NORTHEAST LEAVING A "CUTOFF" LOW OVER
THE CAROLINAS. THE ORIGINAL UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS SLOWLY
FILLS AND EXPANDS TO STRETCH ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AS A TROUGH.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
U.S. PICKS UP THE TROUGHING ALONG THE COAST TO MAKE ANOTHER LONG
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS STILL TO THE WEST...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD
OF THE AND WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
AND TRACKING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER FLORIDA AND THE U.S.
EASTERN SEABOARD SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES IN
THE 60 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE TUE AND AROUND 60 PERCENT ON WED AND THU.
LATE OVERNIGHT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BECOME CONSIDERABLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD
BACK MAX DAYTIME HEATING AND KEEP LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S EACH
DAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO RIVER
VALLEY RIDGES SOUTH DOWN TO NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA RESULTING IN
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ONSHORE WINDS.

FRI-SUN...THE EASTERLY WINDFLOW PATTERN CONTINUES FRI THROUGH SUN
THEN WINDS START BACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH SUN NIGHT AS
WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
BEGINS TO STRETCH ACROSS NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. RAIN
CHANCES IN THE 40 AND LOWER 50S AREA ALL THREE DAYS. HIGHS UPPER 80S
AND AROUND 90 AT THE COAST AND LOWER 90S WELL INLAND.


&&

.AVIATION...SOME SHALLOW STRATUS AND MIST/FOG NOTED ONCE AGAIN THIS
MORNING AROUND THE VRB-FPR AREA...WITH CIGS/VSBYS JUMPING BACK AND
FORTH BETWEEN VFR/IFR. NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT AREAL COVG OF LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO HIGH CLOUD COVER STREAMING OVHD. INCREASING CHCS
FOR SHRA/TS AT ALL AERODROMES TODAY...MNLY 18Z-24Z. PROB30 GROUPS OF
THE 06Z PACKAGE WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY TEMPO TS WITH THE 12Z PKG.

&&

.MARINE...CURRENT OBS SHOW GENERALLY LIGHT SWRLY FLOW LESS THAN 10KT
WITH SEAS 2.5-3.0FT NEAR SHORE AND 3-4FT WELL OFFSHORE IN A 9SEC
SWELL. WNA MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS STATUS QUO NEXT H24 WITH A GENTLE
BREEZE BECOMING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTN...AND THE 8-9SEC
SWELL DECREASING TO 2-3FT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

TUE-FRI...WINDS BECOME ONSHORE/EASTERLY TUE AND REMAIN ONSHORE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
BUILDS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MORE THAN 10
KNOTS NEARSHORE AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS OFFSHORE. SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET
NEARSHORE AND 2 TO 4 FEET OFFSHORE WITH AN OCCASIONAL 4 TO 5 FOOT
SET WELL OFFSHORE IN THE GULF STREAM SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER
BEACH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...LATEST AHPS DATA FOR SHINGLE CREEK AT CAMPBELL (SHIF1)
SHOWS THE STAGE AT 57.63FT AND CONTINUING TO SLOWLY FALL...AFTER
CRESTING AT 57.88FT AROUND 6AM SUNDAY...JUST BELOW THE ACTION STAGE
OF 58.00FT. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE CREEK BASIN THIS
WEEK AS FORECAST RAIN CHANCES REMAIN HIGH FOR THE ENTIRE WEEK...AND
THE BASIN IS SMALL AND PRONE TO RAPID RESPONSE/RISES TO LOCALLY
HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINFALL. WHILE AREALLY-AVERAGED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF ~0.50" ARE FORECAST EACH OF THE NEXT THREE DAYS...HIT-AND-MISS
NATURE OF CONVECTION WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY HIGHER OR LOWER AMOUNTS
OVER THE BASIN...PRETTY MUCH EVERY DAY THIS WEEK. WILL ADDRESS THIS
LOCALIZED HIGHER FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  72  86  73 /  50  40  60  30
MCO  89  72  89  71 /  60  40  70  30
MLB  86  73  86  75 /  60  40  70  40
VRB  86  71  88  75 /  60  40  70  40
LEE  90  72  88  71 /  50  40  60  30
SFB  90  72  88  72 /  50  40  60  30
ORL  90  74  88  73 /  60  40  60  30
FPR  86  72  88  74 /  60  40  70  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....WIMMER
HYDROLOGY...CRISTALDI




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