Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 061942
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
342 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE U.S. HOLDS FAST FOR ANOTHER
NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MEANDERS ABOUT THE SE PA...MD...DELMARVA
AREA. TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER STRETCHES ALL THE WAY TO
CUBA AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN SEA. NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE LOW
AND TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS
INTO FLORIDA WITH OVERNIGHT MAX RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAINLY IN
THE 70 AND 80 PERCENT RANGE. ANY DAY TIME CUMULUS SHOULD QUICKLY
DISSIPATE. THE TAILEND OF A WEAK COLD FRONT PIVOTING THROUGH THE
TROUGH TO THE NORTH MAY PUSH SOME CLOUDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
BUT FOR NOW IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE COASTAL COUNTIES SHOULD
EXPERIENCE ANY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER.

BETWEEN CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CONTINUE COOL AIR ADVECTION
FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT LOWS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
SHOULD BE IN THE LOW AND MID 50S AND THE MID AND UPPER 50S AT THE
BARRIER ISLAND COMMUNITIES FROM MELBOURNE SOUTH.

SAT...ANOTHER NICE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING EAST TO NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH DUE
TO AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SUN-TUE...AXIS OF THE DEEP WRN ATLC TROUGH SHIFTS EWD SAT AS THE
OMEGA BLOCK TO THE NORTH BREAKS DOWN. THIS ALLOWS A MID LEVEL
RIDGE TO BUILD EWD ACROSS FL FROM THE GOMEX AND REMAIN ENTRENCHED
OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS OVER FL
INTO THIS WEEKEND KEEPING CONDS WX WARM AND DRY BUT NOT TERRIBLY
HUMID. HIGH WILL THEN SLIDE EWD WITH ITS AXIS REMAINING OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY MON THEN LIFT NORTH OF CTRL FL
TUE....RESULTING IN A TREND TWD MORE HUMID CONDS. ONE MORE
DAY/NIGHT OF SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS SAT. MAXES NEAR TO
A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL EARLY EXT WEEK WITH MINS RUNNING
ABOUT 1-2 CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO. ECFL NORMALS FOR EARLY MAY ARE
ABOUT 85-88F/63-66F.

WED-FRI...FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...A COUPLE WEAK MID LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE ALOFT WITH LIGHT SE/SRLY FLOW AND
INCREASING MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR A SLGT CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHRA/TS BY
THU (IF NOT WED) PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
REMAIN NEAR OR SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. AIRPORTS AND AIRFIELDS BETWEEN INTERSTATE 95 AND THE COAST
FROM COCOA NORTH MAY EXPERIENCE A MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE. WINDS FALL TO LIGHT AGAIN THIS EVENING. AN AFTERNOON
ONSHORE WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS BETWEEN INTERSTATE 95 (I 95) AND THE
ATLANTIC ORMOND BEACH TO JUPITER INLET. WEST OF I 95 PREDOMINATELY
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOYS RECORDING NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS IN THE ATLANTIC AND
THE COASTAL CMAN SITES WINDS WERE AROUND 10 KNOTS.

THE TWO SCRIPPS BUOYS AT 4 AND 6NM OFF THE BEACH WERE RECORDING 2 TO 3
FEET. THE NOAA BUOYS AT 20NM AND 120NM OFFSHORE WERE RECORDING 5 AND 6
FEET RESPECTIVELY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SUN-TUE...NW-NRLY FLOW WILL DECREASE AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO FL
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3FT AS WINDS DROP AOB
10KT. WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT SRLY MON THEN BACK TO SE AND INCREASE
TO 10-15KT TUE AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS NORTH OF CTRL FL. SEAS OF
2-3FT MON INCREASING BACK TO 3-4FT INTO TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PULLED THE TRIGGER ON A RED FLAG WARNING FOR LAKE...ORANGE...
SEMINOLE AND BREVARD COUNTIES TIL 8 PM BASED ON ERC..WIND 15
MPH/GUSTY AND LOW RH. SWATH OF HIGHER WINDS PULLING DOWN MORE DRY
AIR FROM ALOFT RESULTING IN THE LOW RH.

SAT...LONGER DURATIONS OF CRITICAL...AT OR BELOW 35 PERCENT...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AREAWIDE. MIN RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALSO MUCH
LOWER THAN FRI MIN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. ERC VALUES INCH UP A
NUMBER OR TWO DUE TO NO RAIN PAST 24 HOURS. THE 20 FOOT WINDS TOP
OUT AROUND 13-14 MPH.

SHOULD HAVE A MORE FIRE SENSITIVE DAY WITH THE STRONGER WIND...
MUCH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND INCREASING ERC VALUES DUE
TO NO RAIN HAVING FALLEN PAST 24 HOURS.

SUN-TUE...GRADUAL RH MODIFICATION CONTINUES SUN ONWARD AS S-SE
FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF RETREATING HIGH TAKE HOLD.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOWS FOR SAT MAY 7:
DAB  45 1940
MCO  49 1921
MLB  53 1992
VRB  52 2013

NEAR RECORD LOWS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MELBOURNE AND VERO BEACH
ESPECIALLY IF WINDS CAN DECREASE LATE TONIGHT AND ALLOW TEMPS TO
FALL CLOSER TO THEIR DEWPOINT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  55  78  59  86 /  10   0   0   0
MCO  56  81  60  87 /  10   0   0   0
MLB  57  79  61  83 /  10   0   0   0
VRB  55  79  59  83 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  55  81  61  88 /  10   0   0   0
SFB  55  81  59  88 /  10   0   0   0
ORL  58  81  63  88 /  10   0   0   0
FPR  53  79  58  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NORTHERN
     BREVARD COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-
     SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY.

AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....KELLY



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