Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 010842
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
333 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH SURF AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES...
...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ACROSS THE OPEN
ATLANTIC TODAY...
...WARMING TREND INTO MID WEEK...

TODAY...EASTERLY LOW LVL FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SE AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES NE AWAY FROM THE MID ATLC LATER TODAY. THE INVERTED
TROUGH OFF THE NE FL COAST WILL SHARPEN NORTHWARD OFF THE GA COAST
BUT SHOULD ALLOW E-SE LOW LVL WINDS TO UNDERCUT THE TROUGH ACROSS
ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW THIS
MORNING WILL WEAKEN A BIT INTO LATE AFTN AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS SOME OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE SOME...ESPEC OVER THE SE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME LOW-MID LVL DRYING MOVES TWD THE TREASURE
COAST BY LATE. ONGOING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SRN SECTIONS THIS
MORNING SHOULD TRANSITION NWD AND INTO THE INTERIOR THIS AFTN. PWATS
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES WITH H5 TEMPS AROUND
-11 DEGS C MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED LATE AFTN STORMS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AS A DIFFUSE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHES WELL INTO THE
INTERIOR ADVECTED ALONG IN THE ESE LOW LVL FLOW. WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE SCATTERED RANGE. ALONG THE COAST...ROUGH SURF AND PONDING WAVES
WILL BE A HAZARD AT THE BEACHES INTO THIS AFTERNOON. A HIGH RIP
CURRENT HAZARD IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH A BACKGROUND MODERATE EAST
SWELL. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 70S ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST AND NEAR
80 TO THE LOWER 80S INTERIOR AND SRN SECTIONS.

TONIGHT...00Z NAM INDICATES SOME EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS LAKE
COUNTY AND THE NRN INTERIOR. WILL INDICATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
EVENING SHOWERS MAINLY WEST OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE LOWS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE 60S WITH SOME LATE NIGHT FOG MAINLY ACROSS NRN
SECTIONS AND THE INTERIOR.

MONDAY...THE INVERTED TROUGH OFF THE COAST WEAKENS/MERGES WITH A
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND SHIFT WINDS
TO THE NORTHEAST. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR
INTERIOR...PRIMARILY LAKE COUNTY... WHERE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS
SUGGEST A LATE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH
LOW 80S FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATED BY SEVERAL DEGREES
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO COOL ATLANTIC SHELF WATERS.

TUE-THU...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TUESDAY WILL ALLOW WINDS TO VEER GRADUALLY FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE
MONDAY NIGHT TO SE BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. AN AMPLE RIDGING ALOFT
BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REACH MORE SUMMERLIKE READINGS WITH MID 80S OVER THE FAR INTERIOR BY
WEDNESDAY. MID TO UPPER 70S EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE
THE CHILLY ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
COOLER. ON THURSDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM...EVEN ALONG
THE COAST. WILL BE WATCHING FOR AN INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE EACH
AFTERNOON GIVEN THE LARGE TEMPERATURE SPREAD BETWEEN THE COOL
ATLANTIC SHELF WATERS AND WARMING OVER THE PENINSULA.

FRI-SUN...FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLIDE THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY PUSHING
OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK TRANSITION TO NE
FLOW AND POST FRONTAL CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER CHANCES FOR LATE WEEK
AND FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SUGGEST SOME
SEMBLANCE OF A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFFSHORE EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA...VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. FOR NOW...KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST...THOUGH FUTURE FORECAST ITERATIONS MAY HAVE TO INCREASE
POPS FURTHER. AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND NE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR STRATUS CURRENTLY KLEE VCNTY MAY AFFECT TERMINALS
FROM KISM-KMCO-KSFB-DAB THRU 13Z. SRN CSTL TERMINALS KVRB-KSUA WILL
HAVE SOME BRIEF MVFR SHRA WITH ACTIVITY MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE ATLC
THIS MORNING. CHC FOR AN AFTN SHRA MAINLY INTERIOR TERMINALS BUT
HAVE INCLUDED FOR CSTL TERMINALS AS WELL WITH SOME SHOWERS WHICH MAY
MOVE ONSHORE INTO THE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE... SEAS PUSHING 8FT AT BUOY 41114 AND 9.5 FT AT BUOY 41009
AND LONG FETCH ACROSS THE ATLC WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED TODAY ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL FL ATLC WATERS EVEN WITH WINDS DECREASING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE SCA THIS MORNING FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
WITH OFFSHORE SCA CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT
SEAS TO FALL INTO THE SCEC RANGE AS SE WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS DECREASE
SOME INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

MON-THU...N/NE FLOW 5-10 KNOTS ON MONDAY WILL VEER ONSHORE TUE AND
INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS BY THE AFT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE
S/SE BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WITH WINDS UP TO 15-20 KNOTS AT TIMES OFFSHORE. SEAS 3-5 FT EARLY IN
THE WEEK WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FEET OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT/WED AS WINDS
BECOME MORE BREEZY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  60  74  60 /  40  10  10  10
MCO  81  62  81  61 /  40  20  10  10
MLB  80  63  77  63 /  40  10  10  10
VRB  81  64  78  61 /  40  10  10  10
LEE  80  63  80  61 /  40  30  10  10
SFB  79  61  79  60 /  40  20  10  10
ORL  80  62  80  61 /  40  20  10  10
FPR  82  63  78  63 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLAGLER
     BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLAGLER
     BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....ULRICH


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