Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 201443
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1035 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ALONG AND TO THE
ESE OF KXMR...THOUGH IN THE LAST FEW HOURS SEEMS TO BE STARTING ITS
ADVERTISED NWD PIVOT (INTERESTING TO SEE THE FRONTOLYTIC "SHEDDING"
OF VORTICITY ALONG IT IN VIS IMAGERY THIS MORNING). OVERNIGHT SHRA
AND SPRINKLES OVER VOLUSIA/NRN BREVARD COS SAVE FOR A FEW SMALLER
CELLS JUST OFFSHORE MOSQUITO LAGOON-EDGEWATER. SOME CLOUDS STILL
LINGERING IN THIS AREA...OTHERWISE SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS FOR THE MOST PART...WITH 14Z TEMPS IN THE U70S AREAWIDE.

MORNING RAOBS FROM BOTH JAX/XMR SHOW THE REMNANT FRONTAL MOISTURE
BELOW H75...WHILE SHALLOWER/MORE SPARSE MOISTURE EXISTS TO BOTH THE
SOUTH (MFL) AND WEST (TBW).

REST OF TODAY....FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES ALONG COASTAL VOLUSIA WILL
LIFT NORTH AND PULL OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WITH TEMPS WARMING TO THE U80S INLAND...AND M80S CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SOME BKN VFR CIGS BKN040-060 TIX-DAB THROUGH ABOUT
16Z-17Z.

&&

.MARINE...CURRENT BUOY AND C-MAN OBS SHOW SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 4FT
OFFSHORE UNDER A GENTLE TO MODERATE ONSHORE WIND...VEERING FROM E TO
ESE-SE. 3-4FT SEAS LIKELY FALLING BACK FURTHER TO ~3FT BY TONIGHT.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....WIMMER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014/

TONIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER LAND TONIGHT WITH A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...WITH
A FEW UPPER 60S ALONG THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS.

TUE...A MID LAYER TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND MOISTURE
RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS FROM SRN OSCEOLA/SRN BREVARD SOUTH TO
OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE RETURN WILL EXIST FROM OKEECHOBEE COUNTY TO MARTIN
AND ST LUCIE COUNTIES WHERE ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS WILL BE
FAVORED. FURTHER NORTH EXTENT OF DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN MAKES
CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. WILL GO WITH A SLGT CHC
OF AFTERNOON STORMS WITH SOME DYNAMIC SUPPORT WITH THE RR QUAD OF AN
80 KT JET AND 12KM NAM SHOWS SOME DISCRETE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S IN
THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS.

TUE NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL FL AND PUSH TWD
SRN SECTIONS WITH A DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO NRN LAKE AND VOLUSIA
COUNTIES AND DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND
THE TREASURE COAST. WILL KEEP EVENING CONVECTIVE CHANCES CONFINED TO
SRN AREAS THROUGH LATE EVENING. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

WED-THU...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TWD THE SE STATES AS A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE SRN COUNTIES WED TWD LAKE
OKEECHOBEE ON THU. NORTHERLY LOW LVL FLOW WILL VEER TO THE NE BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY WITH DEEP DRYING ACROSS NRN SECTIONS. CLOSER TO THE
SLOW MOVING FRONT DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESIDE AND WILL KEEP LOW
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS SRN SECTIONS FOR MID WEEK.
00Z GFS INDICATES TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE YUCATAN WILL BEGIN
TO EJECT EASTWARD BY THU AFTN. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

FRI-SAT...ON FRIDAY THE MAIN CLOSED LOW AND TROUGH ACROSS THE NE
STATES WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER S/W ON ITS BACK SIDE
DROPS SE TWD THE CAROLINAS. 00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATES SOME SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE YUCATAN WITH
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THE LOW TRACK WILL BE WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. EVEN WITH THIS SCENARIO MOISTURE MAY WRAP AROUND THE NW
SIDE OF THE ELONGATED DEEP MOISTURE AREA ACROSS FAR S FL IN THE
BAHAMAS AS THE LOW TRACKS E OR ENE. WILL KEEP HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
IN THE SCATTERED RANGE ACROSS THE FAR SRN AREAS WHERE SOME ATLC
SHOWERS WILL MOVE ONSHORE WITH E AND THEN NE TO THE NORTH OF ANY
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT AREA. FOR NRN AREAS...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST AT THIS TIME...THOUGH THIS COULD CHANGE SOME WITH LATER
FORECASTS. SEE LATEST 5 DAY GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM
NHC FOR THE LATEST INFO ON THIS SYSTEM.

SUN-MON...00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATES ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE ARE AND
DEEP MOISTURE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND AWAY FROM CENTRAL
FL. NE FLOW WILL VEER TO ONSHORE WITH ONLY SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...SPOTTY MVFR MIFG/BR THIS MORNING THROUGH 12Z IN ALL
LOCATIONS EXCEPT EAST OF KTIX-KDED-KOMN. LINE OF ISOLD-WDLY SCT
-SHRA FROM ATLC CROSSING COAST AFFECTING AREAS EAST OF KTIX-KDED
-KOMN THROUGH 16Z WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS FL020-030. OTHERWISE...
PREVAILING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

TODAY-TONIGHT...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED AROUND CAPE
CANAVERAL WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. FOR THE WATERS
NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15KTS BECOMING
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF CAPE
CANAVERAL...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10KTS. SOUTH WINDS 10-15KTS OVER
ALL THE WATERS OVERNIGHT BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS
THE FRONT MOVES BACK SOUTH.

SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE WITH UP TO 5FT OVER THE GULF
STREAM. DOMINANT PERIODS 9-11SEC...WITH 6-7SEC OVER GULF STREAM.

A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE WATERS WED INTO WED NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE N
TO NE INTO LATE WEEK WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AT LEAST SCEC LEVELS BY
THU INTO FRIDAY AS WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  63  85  65  81 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  66  86  67  84 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  67  84  69  84 /  10  20  10  20
VRB  66  85  68  84 /  10  20  20  20
LEE  67  86  66  84 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  65  86  67  85 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  67  86  68  84 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  66  85  68  84 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$











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