Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 232040
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
340 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight...
Cold front over the north FL Peninsula will push acrs the I-4
Corridor thru sunset, then into the FL Straits/Nrn Bahamas by
daybreak. As of mid aftn, the H100-H70 70pct isohume was pushing
into the nrn tips of Lake/Volusia counties with isold shra activity
south of Cape Canaveral/Lake-K. This activity will taper off from
north to south thru sunset as the cold front ushers drier and more
stable air into the I-4 Corridor/Space Coast region. Sfc/low lvl
winds veering to N/NW will push min temps into the U40s/L50s north
of I-4, M/U50s Space Coast.

H85-H50 flow acrs the GOMex has a strong zonal component that will
limit the extend of post-frontal dry air advection acrs the Treasure
Coast/Lake-O region. However, no deep convection has occurred as of
mid aftn, despite sfc dewpoints in the L70s accompanied by a pocket
of enhanced H85-H50 omega and H30-H20 divergence. Will keep a chc of
shras thru midnight...slgt chc thru daybreak to account for low lvl
convergence with the fropa, but QPF values will be blo 0.10". Cloud
cover and limited cool air advection will keep min temps in the
U50s/L60s.

Wed...
Cool air advection as northerly post-frontal winds prevail thru the
H100-H85 lyr...max temps ranging from the L/M60s along and north of
I-4, to the U60s/L70s Treasure Coast/Lake-O region. PWat values blo
1.00" north of Cape Canaveral/Lake-K increasing to 1.00"-1.25" vcnty
of Jupiter Inlet as the frontal moisture decouples from the frontal
boundary itself. However, with wrly flow prevailing abv H85, a sharp
inversion will dvlp blo H85 that will cap any meaningful chance for
precip, esp as the H85-H70 lyr is fcst to undergo significant
drying. By midday, PWats diminishing blo 1.00" areawide, mainly in
the from of alto/cirro decks abv H60. No precip fcst.

Wed Night-Friday...
Surface high pressure will build across the southeast states.
Tightening pressure gradient will bring breezy conditions during the
late week with the low level flow veering generally from the NE
Thursday to easterly on Friday as the high center drifts eastward
across the Atlantic from mid Atlantic coast. Upper level moisture
and WSW flow aloft will bring areas of cirrus across the region from
the Gulf of Mexico. Low levels will initially be dry following the
front, then low level moisture will increase slowly into Friday with
onshore flow...but no mentionable precip over land areas expected in
this time frame.

Low temps Wed night will drop into the 40s for the interior and
Volusia/Brevard counties...may even have some upper 30s rural
interior far north. Lows in the 50s are expected from Vero Beach
south along the Treasure coast. Lows Thursday night moderate with
onshore flow...esp near the coast. Expect lows in the mid/upper 40s
inland...around 50 Volusia Coast and mid/upper 50s Space and
Treasure coasts. Highs Thursday generally in the mid/upper 60s
inland and range from around 60 Volusia Coast to upper 60s/near 70
Treasure Coast. Highs Friday near 70/low 70s most areas...except mid
60s near the coast in Volusia Co.

Sat-Tue...(edited previous discussion)
Breezy E/ESE flow will continue along the east coast Saturday with
isolated showers across the Atlantic waters. The next system to
bring appreciable rain chances to the area will occur Sunday into
Sunday night. 12Z runs of GFS/ECMWF continue to display some
differences, with GFS consistent in developing a weak low/impulse
over the Gulf and bringing it across the peninsula on Sunday then
scours out moisture N-S Sunday night. ECMWF still slower and deeper
with the trough, with precip chances occurring mainly Sunday
afternoon and night.

PoPs already advertised in the likely/chance categories and will
keep this consistent until models come into better agreement. This
should spell high rain chances into the likely range for these
periods with a chance of locally heavy rain developing Sunday or
Sunday night. Generally drier conditions will follow the front for
Mon Night into Tue with low level winds from the north to northeast.
The GFS with its more progressive and less amplified solution backs
the flow to northeast more quickly early next week leading to the
potential for shower chances along the Treasure Coast into Tuesday.
Highs will be into the 70s over the weekend with cooler temperatures
for Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Pre-frontal showers will be possible into this evening and early
overnight from MLB south to SUA.  There is a slight chance of a
thunderstorm for VRB, FPR, and SUA but have opted to leave VCSH due
to low probabilities.  Brief MVFR ceilings and visibilities will be
possible with these showers.  As the cold front works its way
through the area this evening into tonight MVFR ceilings on the
order of 1500-2000 ft AGL can be expected with conditions improving
after the frontal passage.  Winds will gradually veer from
southwesterly to northwesterly, and then northerly through the TAF
period.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight-Wednesday...Cold front over the north FL Peninsula will push
thru central FL overnight and into the FL Straits by daybreak as a
large high pres ridge over the south central CONUS builds east into
the Lwr MS Valley. Thru midnight, windshift with the fropa from S/SW
to W/NW in a light to gentle breeze, freshening to a gentle to
moderate N breeze by daybreak Wed, contg thru sunset as the high
pres expands eastward. Seas building to 3-4FT nearshore and 4-5FT
aft midnight...dominant pds btwn 5-7sec. Chc of shras overnight,
mainly south of Sebastian Inlet.

Wed Night-Thu...Boating conditions becoming hazardous heading into
the late week. NE-NE winds will increase Wed night through Thursday
with pressure gradient tightening over the region. Anticipate
needing SCA headlines Wed night into Thu with the increasing winds
and building seas.

Fri-Sat...High pressure will drift off the mid Atlantic coast Fri
and slide eastward over the Atlantic into Sat. Boating conditions
will remain hazardous as E-ESE winds remain elevated around 20 knots
offshore and 15-20 knots near shore. A long fetch across the open
Atlantic will further build seas to 5-7ft nearshore and up to 7-9ft
offshore.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  51  60  44  60 /  10   0  10   0
MCO  53  65  46  65 /   0  10  10  10
MLB  59  65  48  65 /  10   0  10  10
VRB  61  67  54  67 /  30  10  10  10
LEE  48  65  43  66 /   0   0  10   0
SFB  50  63  45  66 /   0   0  10  10
ORL  52  65  48  65 /   0   0  10  10
FPR  61  68  53  68 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

Short Term...Bragaw
Long Term....Glitto
Aviation.....Combs


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