Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 291321

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
921 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017


Current-Tonight...KXMR morning sounding shows a PWAT of 1.16 inches
with very dry air above 750mb. Mid-level temperatures remain warm
(+9.2C/700mb and -7.4C/500mb). Cape wind profilers show deep
southeasterly flow from just off the surface thru 10.0 kft with
speeds sustained near 20 kts up thru 6.5 kft. Surface high pressure
ridging will remain north of ECFL thru the next 24 hours. General
deep layer ridging exists across the Florida peninsula, southeast
U.S., and western Atlc. Near breezy/breezy conditions areawide out
of the ESE or SE. The pressure gradient remains tight enough that
the winds will remain elevated into this evening, 5-10 mph over the
interior and 10-15 mph along the Space/Treasure coasts. Warmer
temperatures aloft, subsidence aloft, and unimpressive deep layer
moisture values continue and thus will keep PoPs out of the
forecast, except along the Treasure Coast for late overnight where a
few coastal showers may make it onshore in the deeper/moderate SERLY
flow. Continued warm and humid with temperatures in the M-U80s along
the coast and L-M90s interior. Lows remain mild with generally U60s
to L70s and likely a few M70s along the Space/Treasure coasts and
barrier islands.


.AVIATION...Breezy ESE/SE winds across ECFL today. Spotty MVFR CIGs
BKN015-020 around this morning. Expect prevailing VFR otherwise
with some diurnal Cu.


.MARINE...Today...East-west surface high pressure ridging remains
north of the local coastal waters. The pgrad is tight enough to
support 15-20kt ESE-SE winds over the Gulf Stream south of Sebastian
Inlet where cautionary statements will exist. Seas 3-4 ft very near
shore and 4-5 ft Gulf Stream during the day.

Tonight...winds increase and expect at least cautionary statements
over all marine legs except near shore Volusia coast. Seas will also
continue to build to 4-5 ft very near shore and 5-6 ft over the open
Atlc. With afternoon package will monitor in the event an SCA is
necessary for at least our southern offshore leg.


.FIRE WEATHER...This afternoon...Previous...marginally low minimum
RH values of 35-40 percent expected late this afternoon from Lake
and western Seminole/Orange counties, southward along the Kissimmee
River basin in Osceola and Okeechobee counties. While min RH and/or
ERC values are forecast to remain just outside of critical levels,
sustained winds of 15-20 MPH gusting to around 25 MPH are
anticipated today. As discussed on Friday, while explicit RFW
criteria may not quite be reached, the Fire Danger remains "High" to
"Very High", especially with today`s forecast wind speeds/gusts
combined with the already very dry conditions areawide.


.Climate...Record warm min temperatures in jeopardy (DAB/MLB) for 29-

DAB...73 in 1991 (Currently 74)
MCO...75 in 1991
MLB...74 in 2003 (Currently 78)
VRB...77 in 1991




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