Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 220251
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1045 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...

GOES Total Precip Water imagery and evening Cape sounding both show
significant dry air across central FL. This explains the clear skies
over land and the adjacent Atlc this evening. But moisture will be
increasing from the southeast overnight as a weak sfc trough
approaches from the central Bahamas. So expect scattered showers to
develop over the atlc, mainly south of the Cape, and push onshore
portions of the coast overnight.

Tue (previous)...Approaching inverted trough axis will move into the
southern peninsula. A fairly tight moisture gradient will develop
over the CWA; PWATs in excess of 2 inches southward and 1.30-1.50
inches northward. This, in turn, will create a likely tight PoP
gradient as well. Higher PoPs (50pct) over the deep south will taper
back to 20pct near/north of I-4. The resultant onshore, moist flow
will keep convection active Tue night with trough/moisture axis
along the Treasure Coast and adjacent coastal waters. Will watch for
heavy rainfall potential along the immediate coast should any
persistent band(s) set up into Tue night. Highs will reach around 90
across the south and 92-94 across the nrn interior.

&&

.AVIATION...Primarily VFR. GFS MOS is hinting at some low clouds
(around 1000-1500 ft AGL) in the overnight and early morning on
Tuesday. There will be an increase in the cyclonic low level flow
but confidence is not high enough to put MVFR cigs in the TAFs.
Maintained FEW015 as a heads-up for possible lower cloud bases
mainly over the interior.  Will advertise only VCSH for now
primarily from MLB southward.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight...The surface high pressure ridge axis north of the waters
will continue to produce an onshore wind flow, east winds around 10
kts north and 15 knots south. Seas will build 3-4 ft near shore and
4-5 ft well offshore. A weak sfc trough over the central Bahamas
will push W/NW and bring increasing moisture from the southeast
overnight. There should be some increase in scattered showers over
the Atlc south of the Cape which may cross the coast.

Tue...Sfc trough axis will extend from south FL northward over the
adjacent Atlc waters. This will produce a slight backing of the
winds across the northern waters (from the E/NE) and veering winds
across the southern waters (from the E/SE). Seas 3-4 ft near shore
and 4-5 ft offshore. There will be scattered to numerous showers and
embedded storms south of the Cape, isolated at best to the north.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  91  75  93 /  10  20  10  20
MCO  74  95  76  96 /  10  20  10  20
MLB  79  92  78  91 /  10  30  20  50
VRB  77  91  75  91 /  20  40  30  60
LEE  76  95  78  96 /  10  20   0  20
SFB  75  95  77  96 /  10  20  10  20
ORL  75  95  78  96 /  10  20  10  20
FPR  79  91  75  90 /  20  40  30  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

Kelly/Bragaw/Combs


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