Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 220503
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1103 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

West winds of 20 to 30 knots, with gusts to near 40 knots, will
become northwest Sunday morning. The highest winds are forecast to
affect KSJT, where winds may gust over 45 knots late tonight into
early Sunday morning. Winds will slowly decrease into the 15 to 25
knots range by mid to late morning, becoming light Sunday evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 959 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017/

UPDATE...
..High Wind Warning for the southern Concho Valley and Northern
Edwards Plateau areas...

Winds continue to increase across the Concho Valley and Northern
Edwards Plateau areas this evening. Winds have been gusting over
50 mph routinely at the KSJT site for over an hour as of 930 PM.
This is actually trending higher than MOS guidance for KSJT which
is currently predicting gusts to 60 mph later tonight. Models also
continue to indicate 850mb winds of 65+ knots(75+mph) developing
later tonight. And in fact, the latest VAD Wind Profile data from
KSJT WSR-88D shows 60-65 knot winds within a few thousand feet of
the surface, which is actually stronger than models are currently
predicting at this time. So, with all that in mind, have gone
ahead and issued a High Wind Warning for southern parts of the
Concho Valley and Northern Edwards Plateau. Will keep the Wind
Advisory wording going either side of the High Wind Warning as
winds are expected to decrease late Sunday morning into Sunday
afternoon. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 513 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

West winds of 15 to 25 knots, with gusts to near 35 knots will
continue this evening. Winds will become northwest late this
evening into Sunday morning and increase to 20 to 30 knots, with
gusts over 40 knots possible. Isolated to scattered light showers
are currently moving across West Central Texas, but will move east
of the area by late this evening. Gusty northwest winds will
begin to decrease around noon Sunday, dropping below 12 knots at
most sites by early evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 348 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Windy conditions to continue...

Rapid cyclogenesis has taken place across the Panhandle this
afternoon, tightening the pressure gradient and increasing wind
speeds. Wind speeds have increased dramatically through the
afternoon, with the latest peak winds for the day (through about 330
pm) showing:

ASOS locations:
San Angelo-46 mph
Abilene-39 mph
Junction-37 mph

West Texas Mesonet Locations:
Fort Chadbourne-46 mph
Sterling City-45 mph
Sweetwater-45 mph
San Angelo-42 mph
Menard-40 mph
Mertzon-38 mph
Clyde-38 mph

We have also seen a few showers develop this afternoon across the
Heartland and Big Country. These are moving east and should be out
of the area by around sunset.

Very windy conditions will continue tonight into Sunday. Tight
pressure gradient is generating 850 mb winds of nearly 70 knots at
850 mb overnight. Some of this will mix down to the surface, and
winds speeds of at least 25 to 35 mph are likely across all of the
area. The Wind Advisory for today will be extended into Sunday.
Always hard to tell just how much mixing will occur at night, but
given the strength of the flow, a few gusts across the Concho Valley
and Northern Edwards Plateau may approach 50 kts and a High Wind
Warning may be required for a short amount of time.

Gradient relaxes on Sunday, although better mixing of the higher
winds aloft after sunrise will offset some of this. Still expect
gusty winds through at least noon, with a more noticeable wind
speed decrease for the afternoon.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)

Winds will continue to drop off tomorrow evening, and will be light
and variable during the night. With generally clear skies and a dry
airmass, radiational cooling will allow temperatures to drop into
the mid 30s for overnight lows. Could have a few minimum
temperatures in the lower 30s in some of the low-lying areas and
river valleys. Winds will become southwest on Monday, as the surface
high pressure ridge shifts east of our area. With ample sunshine,
temperatures will be well-above normal with afternoon highs expected
to be in the lower to mid 70s across the northern part of our area,
and in the mid to upper 70s from the Concho Valley south to the I-10
corridor.

An upper level ridge will shift east across Texas on Monday, and
then the flow aloft over our area will become southwest Tuesday into
midweek, as a large upper trough moves from the Rockies across the
central and northern Plains and takes on a positive tilt. Above
normal temperatures on Tuesday will be followed by much cooler
conditions on Wednesday, following a morning cold frontal passage.
The cooler airmass will remain over our area into late week, with
highs on Thursday and Friday expected to be in the 50s.

An increase in cloud cover is indicated on Friday, with another cold
front progged to drop south across our area Friday afternoon and
evening. With some upper support from an incoming shortwave trough,
carrying low PoPs for the possibility of rain showers Friday night
across the area southeast of a Sonora to Eden to Cross Plains line.
Temperatures look to remain chilly into the first part of next
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  45  61  37  75 /   5   0   0   0
San Angelo  44  66  36  77 /   5   0   0   0
Junction  46  67  34  77 /  10   0   0   0
Brownwood  45  62  34  73 /  10   0   0   0
Sweetwater  44  61  37  74 /   5   0   0   0
Ozona       43  66  35  77 /   5   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST Sunday for Brown-Callahan-Coke-
Coleman-Concho-Fisher-Haskell-Jones-Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-
Menard-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Shackelford-Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-
Throckmorton.

High Wind Warning until 10 AM CST Sunday for Crockett-Irion-
Schleicher-Tom Green.

Wind Advisory until 11 PM CST this evening for Crockett-Irion-
Schleicher-Tom Green.

Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 3 PM CST Sunday for Crockett-Irion-
Schleicher-Tom Green.

&&

$$

Daniels


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