Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 271105
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
605 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Patchy stratus may result in brief MVFR ceilings this morning,
mainly at KSOA and KJCT. VFR conditions will return to all sites
by mid to late morning. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and VCTS was included at
all sites. Winds will be from the east 5 to 10 knots today,
becoming light and variable overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 419 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper level ridge will remain centered across the Great Basin
region today. Models indicate a subtle disturbance moving southwest
across West Central Texas today, along the eastern periphery of the
upper level ridge. This in combination with good surface moisture
should yield isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. High resolution models look more promising
today for at least some scattered convection across much of the
forecast area. PoPs were generally kept in the slight chance to
chance category. The main concern with these storms will be
dangerous lightning, brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds.

Highs today will be slightly cooler than what we saw yesterday, due
to expected increased cloud cover and possible showers. Highs will
mainly be in the mid 90s, with a few locations reaching the upper
90s. Overnight lows will mainly be in the low to mid 70s.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)

Looks like one last opportunity for some scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Thursday, then we return to hot and dry conditions
Friday into early next week.

West Central Texas will remain on the eastern periphery of the
upper ridge on Thursday, with the ridge expanding eastward across
our area through the rest of the extended period. Kept POPs in the
20 to 30 percent range on Thursday, with the most favored area for
convection south of Interstate 20. Any storms that develop will
have the potential to produce brief heavy downpours, given
precipitable water values between 1.5 and 2.0 inches. Highs on
Thursday will be in the mid and upper 90s, with lows Thursday
night in the mid and upper 70s.

Temperatures return to the upper 90s to 100 degrees for highs this
weekend into early next, as subsidence increases with the expansion
of the upper ridge across the area. Overnight lows will remain in
the 70s through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  96  74  96  76 /  30  20  30  10
San Angelo  96  73  96  74 /  40  20  30  10
Junction  94  73  95  74 /  40  30  20  10

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

Daniels


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