Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 291713
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1213 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016


.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Skies are clearing from the west early this afternoon as a dryline
and Pacific cold front push east through the area. Winds will
turn from south to west/southwest and become gusty. Expect
clearing skies through the afternoon with VFR conditions from
early afternoon through the overnight hours.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 733 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Low clouds are having trouble remaining continuous across the
area this morning, but will start most sites at MVFR this morning.
We may see a few thunderstorms move across area sites during the
morning to early afternoon hours. Between late morning and early
afternoon, skies will clear as a Pacific cold front/drlyine sweeps
east through the area today. Winds will turn from south/southeast
to west/southwest and gusty. Expect clearing skies from mid
morning through the afternoon with VFR conditions from late this
morning into the overnight hours. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 340 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Upper low currently over the Four Corners region will move east
across southern Colorado today and into Kansas by this evening.
This will force the Pacific front/dryline east across our area
today, with a cold front dropping south across the northern half
of the CWA tonight. Convergence along the front, combined with an
increase in large-scale ascent will result in scattered showers
and thunderstorms developing to our west by daybreak, with
activity moving east across the area this morning. Far southeast
counties will likely see convection linger through late afternoon
or early evening until the Pacific front pushes off to the east.
While widespread severe weather is not expected, a few storms may
become strong to severe today, especially east of a Brownwood to
Junction line this afternoon. The main hazards will be damaging
winds and large hail.

Gusty southwest winds will develop in wake of the Pacific front
today, with strongest winds expected across the western Big
Country and Concho Valley, where sustained winds 15 to 25 mph with
gusts to 35 mph are expected. Skies will be partly to mostly
cloudy early this morning, with clearing skies from west to east
during the day. Highs today will be in the lower to middle 80s,
with lows tonight in the lower and middle 50s.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)

Another warm day is in store for Saturday across West Central
Texas. A cold front is forecast to make it into the Big Country
before becoming stationary. Highs will range from the mid to upper
70s across much of the Big Country, to the mid to upper 80s across
much of the rest of the forecast area. On Sunday, a cold front
will move through all the area, resulting in northeast winds of 10
to 15 mph. Increased cloud cover combined with the expected cold
air advection should result in high temperatures mainly in the
70s.

An upper level trough is forecast to swing across the Southern
Plains Monday into Tuesday, resulting in increased rain chances
for West Central Texas. Abundant cloud cover and expected showers
and thunderstorms on Monday should help to keep temperatures well
below seasonal normals. Highs will mainly be in the upper 50s to
mid 60s. Rain chances will decrease Monday night, with the best
PoPs shifting east of the forecast area.

A slow warming trend is then expected, with highs on Tuesday back
into the 70s, and into the 80s by Thursday. No rain is forecast
for the middle to latter part of the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  53  79  52  73 /  10   5   5  10
San Angelo  53  86  55  75 /  10   5   5  10
Junction  55  88  58  81 /  20  10   5  10

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/99


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