Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 191131
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
531 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Expect widespread MVFR ceilings this morning across West Central
Texas. However, abundant high clouds may result in breaks in the
low clouds. Ceilings will improve to low end VFR by early this
afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this
evening and have TEMPO groups for TSRA at the KABI/KBBD/KJCT
terminals. Going with only VCTS at the KSJT/KSOA terminals due to
lower confidence that storms will develop and HRRR Hi Res model
keeps most of the convection to the east.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 404 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

..Severe Thunderstorms Possible...

Severe thunderstorms may develop across much of West Central Texas
this afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center has
locations along and east of a line from Ozona to Sterling city in
a marginal risk area, for possible severe thunderstorms, through
6 AM CST Monday morning. Plus, locations along and east of a line
from Hamlin, to Blackwell, To San Angelo, to Sonora are in a
slight risk area for possible severe thunderstorms, through 6 AM
CST Monday morning. The primary threats are large hail and
damaging winds. The primary driver behind this potential for
severe thunderstorms is an upper-level disturbance, which will
move across West Central Texas during the next 24 to 36 hours.
This upper disturbance will also help mix a surface dryline, from
west to east, across West Central Texas beginning around noon
today and continuing through 6 AM CDT Monday morning. The best
time for severe thunderstorms will be this afternoon and evening,
when upper dynamics and instability will be best.

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)

..Dry and Warmer Than Normal...

The long term forecast remains dry, with temperatures above
seasonal normals. Some showers may linger Monday morning, across
our southeastern counties, as the upper trough moves east of West
Central Texas. Otherwise, the long term forecast is dry.
Temperatures will continue to warm, and by Thursday, not-very-
February-like afternoon highs, mainly in the 80 to 83 range, will
dominate West Central Texas. Then, another weak cold front will
move, from north to south, across West Central Texas Thursday
night in Friday. This front will bring cooler air; however,
afternoon highs mainly in the mid to upper 60s will still be
above seasonal normals for February.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  71  53  73  46 /  40  40  10   0
San Angelo  75  50  75  44 /  30  40  10   0
Junction  74  53  74  44 /  40  60  20   5
Brownwood  74  53  74  46 /  50  60  20   5
Sweetwater  72  51  72  46 /  20  20   0   0
Ozona       72  47  73  42 /  30  30  10   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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