Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 222319
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
619 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017


.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR flying conditions are expected this afternoon and early
evening. Overnight cooling and abundant low level moisture will
result in a return MVFR or locally IFR flying conditions,
especially across southern most airports included Junction and
Sonora. Gusty winds this evening will slacken and wind gusts will
drop within a few hours after sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 403 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017/

SHORT TERM...
Tonight and Saturday)

The weather pattern over west central Texas will remain
relatively unchanged through the first half of the weekend. A deep
upper level trough will remain anchored across the western U.S.
with a mid-upper level high centered across the Mississippi
Valley. Early morning cloudiness will scatter out in the afternoon
resulting in party cloudy skies. Expect overnight lows near 70
degrees, with afternoon highs mainly in the upper 80s to lower
90s.

42

LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)

..Widespread rainfall still expected next week...

Saturday night should be relatively quiet for most of the area,
with lows in the upper 60s. A few scattered showers and
thunderstorms may approach the western half of the area Saturday
night into Sunday morning. And although, we will see a general
cooling trend through Sunday, temperatures will still warm into
the upper 80s to near 90 Sunday afternoon.

By Sunday night, the deep trough to our west will start to edge
close enough to the area to start to bring better rain chances to
the western half of the CWA. This feature, along with a stalled
front in the area by the middle of next week, will bring
widespread rainfall to the entire area next week. A cut off upper
low is expected to develop off of the southern end of the trough
by late Monday night into Tuesday. With the long meridional
extent of the main trough, the system will be able to tap
moisture from the Pacific in the mid and upper levels, and from
the Gulf of Mexico in the low levels (precipitable water values
will approach 2 inches for parts of the area) setting up a very
favorable pattern for repeated rainfall across west central Texas
from Monday through the end of the week. In addition, with the
front stalled in the area providing a focus, some of the rain
will be heavy at times. At this point, it`s hard to pin down
exactly where the heaviest rainfall will be, but models continue
to put the heaviest rain along a corridor from just east of the
Big Bend area, north/northeast into southwestern Oklahoma, which
would put much of west central Texas under the heavier totals.
Right now, it`s not out of the question that some areas,
especially west of an Abilene to Junction line could see totals of
5+ inches over the next several days, mainly starting Monday.
Although the rain won`t be heavy the entire time, there will be
periods of heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding,
especially with repeated rainfall in the same areas. Needless to
say, temperatures will be much cooler next week.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  70  91  69  89 /   5   5   5  10
San Angelo  71  92  69  89 /   5  10  10  10
Junction  71  90  68  89 /   5  10   5  10
Brownwood  70  91  68  89 /   5   5   5  10
Sweetwater  70  88  69  86 /   5   5  10  20
Ozona       70  88  69  86 /   5  10  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

22/99/99


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