Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 140536
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1136 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

This run, stratus return with MVFR ceilings still looks likely for
most of West Central Texas south of our Interstate 20 corridor.
The NAM and GFS both develop the stratus; however, the NAM
doesn`t return VFR conditions until 21Z. Considering flight
safety, continuing that timing still looks best.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 534 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for MVFR ceilings to develop later tonight across most of
West Central Texas south of our Interstate 20 corridor. Then,
another cold front will begin to move across West Central Texas
tomorrow afternoon. Conditions should return to VFR by mid
afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 336 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

The benign weather pattern with mild temperatures will continue
through Sunday morning. Light and variable winds this morning will
become south to southeast during the morning hours. This flow will
bring Gulf of Mexico moisture into our area today, raising dewpoints
into the 40s by early afternoon. Dewpoints are expected to
eventually rise into the lower 50s for the southern 2/3 of the area
by late tonight. This will result in warmer overnight temperatures
and lows in the 40s to lower 50s. Low clouds are also expected to
affect areas generally south of a Brownwood to Ozona line, although
these low clouds could affect areas as far north as the I-20
corridor by early Sunday morning. Highs today will be similar to
Friday with cooler temperatures in the Big Country of upper 60s to
near 70 with low to mid 70s elsewhere.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)

Dry with well above normal temperatures will prevail through the
longer term. Northwest flow aloft will weaken and shift has an
upper level ridge moves across the area. With the ridge in place
and no cold air in sight, guidance forecast highs in the 80s are
looking in the ballpark. Combine that with overnight lows climbing
into the 50s, and it will feel more like middle of April than the
middle of February.

Both the GFS and the ECMWF are showing a cooler and wetter system
starting by the end of next weekend. It is beyond the range of the
current forecast, but at least the models have some consistency in
something other than dry with above normal temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  53  72  39  70 /   0   5   5   0
San Angelo  52  77  40  75 /   0   5   0   0
Junction  50  74  41  75 /   0   5   0   0

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$


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