Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 100500
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1100 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016


.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Skies have cleared from the west over most of the area this
evening with clear skies and VFR conditions expected through the
afternoon hours. South winds will be generally light through the
night and morning hours and will begin gusting to around 15-20
knots around noon at the northern terminals. Winds will abate by
mid to late evening. Stratus is expected to move northward over
the southern terminals by mid-evening with MVFR ceilings possibly
degrading to IFR by late evening.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 833 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016/

UPDATE...
The forecast is being updated for tonight, and to a smaller
extent for Saturday. Temperatures this evening have already
dropped to within several degrees of the forecast lows across
parts of west central Texas. Skies have cleared across the
western two- thirds of our area, and models show this clearing to
progress east across the rest of our area early tonight. The
temperature drop across the Big Country will be more
+ than farther south, as southeast winds become south at 8-10
mph. The overnight lows have been adjusted down by a few degrees
across most areas. Sky grids were also adjusted downward for
Saturday, with only the far southeastern part of our area expected
to have any cloud cover. The updated forecast products will
reflect these changes and will be out shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 511 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

A VFR cloud deck will continue to slowly dissipate over the area
through the next several hours. VFR conditions under mostly clear
skies will prevail through the TAF period at all terminals.
South winds will be 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable
overnight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 341 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

Extensive cloud cover will continue to slowly erode this afternoon,
with partly cloudy skies expected overnight. Less cloud cover
overnight along with light winds should allow for ideal radiational
cooling conditions. Low temperatures Saturday morning will mainly be
in the upper 20s to lower 30s, although a few low lying locations
may drop into the mid 20s. Slightly below normal temperatures are
forecast on Saturday with highs mainly in the mid to upper 50s.
Expect south winds of 10 to 20 mph, with higher gusts.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Tuesday)

Unseasonably warm temperatures will occur by Sunday as southwest
winds develop in the lower levels, with 850 mb temperatures
increasing to around 15 degrees Celsius by afternoon. Spring like
temperatures are expected, with afternoon highs climbing into the
lower 70s for much of the area. It will be breezy, with southwest
winds 10 to 20 mph, with some higher gusts near 25 mph.
A weak cold front will move through the area Sunday night, with
slightly cooler temperatures for Monday with highs mainly in the
60s. Tuesday will be pleasant, with light winds and afternoon
highs again in the 60s. Overnight lows will be mainly in the 40s
through the period, with a few upper 30s across northern sections
Sunday night.

(Wednesday through Friday)

Dry weather will continue, with a strong cold front on
Wednesday...

The warm temperatures will quickly come to an end by mid week as
another strong cold front affects the region. Still seeing some
differences between the GFS and ECMWF regarding the timing and
strength of the front, with the GFS a bit faster and colder. Will
favor the faster frontal passage similar to the GFS, with the
front coming through on Wednesday but will not go as cold as the
GFS behind the front for Thursday. Going with overnight lows in
the mid and upper 20s Wednesday night, with highs Thursday mainly
in the lower 40s. Warmer temperatures expected by Friday with
highs in the 50s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  41  29  56  47 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  47  29  59  45 /   0   0   0   0
Junction  47  26  57  46 /   0   0   5  10
Brownwood  44  27  56  47 /   0   0   0  10
Sweetwater  41  31  56  44 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       42  27  53  40 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/99



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