Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 291752
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1252 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Look for VFR conditions to dominate West Central Texas for the
next 24 hours. Ceilings in the IFR range, currently over our
Abilene terminal, will clear this afternoon. The cold front,
currently near a Sonora to Brownwood line, will continue to move
toward the southeast this afternoon. The HRRR indicates the front
will clear our southeastern counties by 21Z this afternoon. Some
convection may develop this afternoon and evening, as an upper-
level disturbance moves across Texas. However, models indicate
this activity will be mainly light showers.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 634 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Patchy MVFR cigs have developed across West Central Texas
terminals early this morning. These should continue through
sunrise, with the cigs dissipating by mid morning. With the
passage of a dryline and then a cold front, winds will shift from
the south to the southwest and then to the northwest during the
afternoon. Models continue to show another band of showers and
storms possible this afternoon and evening. Given the uncertainty
in timing and location, will handle it with a mention of VCTS for
now and let later forecasts pin down the timing better.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 401 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Low level moisture has returned to West Central Texas, with
dewpoints well into the mid 60s for most locations. Cold front is
just west of the area however, with much cooler conditions already
noted across the Permian Basin. this front arcs back northward
across Oklahoma. Aloft, upper level low is spinning across southern
Colorado and northern New Mexico this morning. Most of the
convection this morning has been across the South Plains into
Oklahoma along and north of the cold front. However, scattered
showers have also developed farther south and are tracking towards
the western Big Country and Concho Valley. The latest HRRR shows
this activity moving across the area by sunrise.

For today, the cold front to the west should slow its progress
slightly this morning as it hits a warmer air mass, with the HRRR
suggesting a dryline-type feature may actually develop and run out
ahead of it. In either case, the front will still make it eastward
and clear out of the area by around noon. A few showers and storms
will remain possible along and ahead of this feature, although
coverage looks a little limited. A better chance of rain will
develop later this afternoon and evening, as a shortwave rounds the
base of the upper low and moves into the area. Model all show
another band of showers and storms sweeping across the area between
about 21Z and 06Z, with the best coverage across the Big Country and
Heartland counties.

Finally, cooler across the area today, and much much colder tonight
as the brunt of the cold air arrives. With clouds in place today,
temperatures will range from the mid 60s north of I-20 to the mid
80s across the Northwest Hill Country. Some clearing skies tonight
behind the shortwave and better cold advection will allow overnight
lows to fall into the 30s and 40s for Sunday morning.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Saturday)

Expect cooler temperatures and gusty northwest winds across the
entire area Sunday due to low level CAA behind the cold front.
Highs will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s, possibly even cooler if
low clouds develop across the northern part of the area. Much
warmer for Monday and Tuesday as low level south to southwest flow
returns. Highs will be in the mid 80s to lower 90s. The coolest
night will be Sunday night as good radiational cooling sets up.
Lows Monday morning will be in the 40s, with a few upper 30s
possible in the river valleys and low lying areas. Another cool
front will move across West Central Texas Wednesday, and going
with chance to slight chance Pops across the eastern half of the
area, due to low level gulf moisture return and some buoyancy in
place. A dry forecast for Thursday through Saturday. Highs for
middle to late this week will be in the 70s and 80s, with lows in
the 50s, besides 60s Wednesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  42  67  45  85 /  50   5   0   0
San Angelo  43  72  45  90 /  40   5   0   0
Junction  46  73  42  89 /  50   5   0   0
Brownwood  44  70  44  87 /  50   5   0   0
Sweetwater  41  68  46  85 /  50   5   0   0
Ozona       42  72  44  90 /  40   5   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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