Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 271801
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
201 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 324 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Low pressure will pull away from Lower Michigan today with showers
ending. Another low will track across Indiana and Ohio tonight
with some showers across southern Lower Michigan. Fair weather
should return for Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 324 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Somewhat drier air is slowly advecting into Lower Michigan this
morning and the areas of fog across the northern forecast area
should gradually dissipate. Showers will also be tapering off and
ending this morning as the low center pulls away, but another low
is poised to our south. The northern edge of its precip shield is
progged to reach into roughly the southern half of the forecast
area from late afternoon through the evening then move east after
midnight.

Showers should taper off by Tuesday morning with drier and cooler
northerly flow setting up as Canadian sfc high builds south and
provides fair weather through Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 324 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

The main weather maker during the long term will be a southern
stream low that moves from the southern Plains through the Great
Lakes Thursday and Friday. Both the gfs and ecmwf are similar in
their handling of this system. A strong push of moisture northward
from the Gulf will accompany this system. At the same time, high
pressure over western Quebec will feed cool air into the state. The
result will be mixed rain and snow Thursday morning turning to a
cold rain Thursday afternoon. Temps will rebound into the 50s Friday
through Monday after the low moves east and high pressure moves in.

The ecmwf shows another southern stream system next Monday clipping
the southern cwa as it moves over the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, the
gfs is farther south across the southern states.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 201 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

The AZO-BTL-JXN terminals along the I-94 corridor will be the most
likely to see IFR and even LIFR ceilings centered around 06Z
tonight. Some improvement to IFR/MVFR is expected by 09Z when
winds turn northeast and get a little stronger. This is a little
less climatologically favorable for IFR/LIFR at some sites like
JXN but slightly more favorable at AZO/BTL/GRR. So, most sites
stand a good chance of experiencing IFR ceilings well past 12Z
Tuesday. Fog will be a secondary issue with visibilities expected
to stay above 1 mile even along I-94 corridor sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1101 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Areas of dense fog are affecting the coastline, in addition to
open waters. Visibilities of one-quarter mile are less could
extend into the afternoon before drier air begins to move in.

Otherwise, winds and waves will be relatively light through the
next couple of days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Rainfall totals over the last couple days have ranged from a quarter
inch across western reaches of the Muskegon and Grand River basins
to a swath of 1 to 2 inches across central and eastern stretches of
the Grand River basin as well as central and western reaches of the
Kalamazoo River basin. Rises on area rivers are occurring, though
most should hold within banks. Some exceptions will be at Ionia,
Hastings, Eagle, and Holt where minor flooding may impact areas
adjacent to the river banks.

Additional rainfall later this upcoming week will likely hold many
rivers at higher than normal levels.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Ostuno
SHORT TERM...Ostuno
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...TJT
HYDROLOGY...Hoving
MARINE...JAM



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