Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 061926
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
326 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

A COLD FRONT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND WILL BE DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY IN THE 60S AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH PCPN TRENDS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FAR NW WISCONSIN AND
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PCPN ALONG IT. HOWEVER...TOWERING CU IS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AND WE/LL PROBABLY SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT MOVES OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AROUND 06Z, IT
WILL ENCOUNTER QUITE A BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...LI/S NEAR -4C.
HOWEVER, MOISTURE IS LACKING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW AN INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INCREASES AND THE LLJ STRENGTHENS A
BIT. STILL, SOUNDINGS DON/T SATURATE. SHOWERS APPEAR LIKELY AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
CWA. THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY WILL BE FOUND SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CWA ROUGHLY SOUTHEAST OF A LANSING TO BATTLE CREEK
LINE. THE PCPN SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE CWA BY 18Z OR SO.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
LATE SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SUNNY MOTHERS DAY WITH SEASONAL
HIGHS IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

NEXT WEEK FEATURES MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD IN THE 60S...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
70 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY WITH MOISTURE
INCREASINGLY STEADILY DURING THE DAY... BUT THE DAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY
GIVEN SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. H850 SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW KICKS IN MONDAY NIGHT. ISENTROPIC ASCENT UP A WARM FRONT
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A CHANCE FOR
THUNDER MONDAY NIGHT.

THE NEGATIVELY TILTED OPEN WAVE SWINGS THROUGH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. A DECREASING CLOUD TREND FOLLOWS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. A BRIEF WINDOW (2-3
HOURS) OF MVFR LOOKS LIKELY BETWEEN 12-18Z SATURDAY WITH RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE AREA. THUNDER LOOKS UNLIKELY OVERNIGHT... BUT
ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY... ESPECIALLY TOWARD LAN AND
JXN AFTER 15Z.

CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING... WITH MID/HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL
TURN SOUTHERLY AFTER 01Z OR SO. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING PRIOR TO A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY MID MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

WINDS AND WAVES WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER, A COLD
FRONT MOVING SOUTH TONIGHT MAY PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY
WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 113 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY POSTED FOR THE GRAND RIVER AT
IONIA... THE THORNAPPLE RIVER IN HASTINGS AND THE MAPLE RIVER IN
MAPLE RAPIDS. THE RIVER LEVELS AT THESE SITES ARE RISING OR HAVE
JUST PEAKED. THEY ARE JUST ABOVE BANKFULL LEVELS AND SHOULD CREST
TODAY OR SATURDAY BELOW FLOOD STAGE. RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND MAY SLOW
THE FALL OF RIVER LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...EBW
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...04


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