Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 280729
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
329 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING SOME
RAIN BY EVENING. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
BEFORE FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER MOVES IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST BY THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR A SLOWER
ARRIVAL. WE HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING THE
BULK OF THE RAIN THROUGH ON SATURDAY. HI RES MODELS SHOW A DIURNAL
WEAKENING TREND TODAY WITH THE CONVECTION OVER IOWA ATTM AS IT
MOVES EAST AND WE DONT EXPECT STRONG CONVECTION WITH WEAK SHEAR
AND LIMITED INSTABILITY BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A SLOW CLEARING TREND BEGINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST AND HEIGHTS RISE BY SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

HOT AND DRY. THE ECMWF/GFS/FIM ALL AGREE THAT HEAT WILL BUILD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SHORT WAVES WILL BE PUSHED WELL NORTHWEST OF
THE THE CWA LEADING TO GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WITH A DECENT CAP IN
PLACE. SO EVEN THOUGH HUMIDITY WILL RISE AS SOUTH FLOW ADVECTS 60S
DEWPOINTS INTO THE CWA RESULTING IN INCREASED AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY...THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH OF A KICKER TO GET ANYTHING
GOING. IT/S POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS COULD DEVELOP WED/THU
AFTERNOON ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE. LATEST ECMWF ALSO HINTS AT A SHORT
WAVE ROUNDING THE UPPER PART OF THE RIDGE THURSDAY WHICH MAY HELP TO
GENERATE A STORM.

HIGHS WILL SETTLE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE
RIDGING IN PLACE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AIR QUALITY ALERTS
ISSUED. WE/LL KEEP AN EYE ON THAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SOME FOG IS LIKELY TO FORM OVERNIGHT, BUT PROBABLY WON/T RESTRICT
VISIBILITIES AS MUCH AS LAST NIGHT. VSBYS WILL RISE TO VFR BY MID
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BLO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. MUCH OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE
UNDER AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOWER COULD SEE HEAVIER RAINS. AT THIS POINT RIVER LEVELS SHOULD
REMAIN LOW INTO NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING IN LOW
LYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER INTO SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...63/JK
MARINE...OSTUNO


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