Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 231930
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THEN FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL MOVE IN NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

NO BIG STORMS IN THE NEAR TERM AND THE ONLY FORECAST ISSUE IS FOR
TIMING OF PRECIP ON THURSDAY AND CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDER THURSDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT A WARM ADVECTION WING OF PRECIP EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING TO GRAZE THE NW FORECAST AREA THEN THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK
BEFORE RAINS ARRIVE THURSDAY EVENING WITH MAIN BATCH OF RAIN GONE
BY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOW PULLS EAST.

LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST AS CONDITIONS ARE STILL VERY
MARGINAL.

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IN THE EXTENDED IS FOR THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF
RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A BLOCKING PATTERN SLOWLY EVOLVES. RUN TO
RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY IS STILL NOT GOOD INDICATING ENOUGH ENSEMBLE
SPREAD TO ALLOW FOR UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER RAIN WILL STAY SOUTH
OF OR ENCROACH ON THE SOUTHERN ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

AN UPPER LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE WEEKEND BUT
DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL
EVENTUALLY STALL IN THE VICINITY OF LOWER MICHIGAN BRING CLOUDS AND
MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER NEXT WEEK...WITH EVEN THE CHANCE FOR
WET SNOW AT TIMES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 323 PM
EDT WED APR 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IN THE EXTENDED IS FOR THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF
RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A BLOCKING PATTERN SLOWLY EVOLVES. RUN TO
RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY IS STILL NOT GOOD INDICATING ENOUGH ENSEMBLE
SPREAD TO ALLOW FOR UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER RAIN WILL STAY SOUTH
OF OR ENCROACH ON THE SOUTHERN ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

AN UPPER LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE WEEKEND BUT
OVERALL TRENDS SUGGEST DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL MONDAY.
THE UPPER LOW WILL EVENTUALLY STALL IN THE VICINITY OF LOWER
MICHIGAN BRING CLOUDS AND MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER NEXT
WEEK...WITH EVEN THE CHANCE FOR WET SNOW AT TIMES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS AOA 12 KFT AGL. NORTH WINDS AROUND
10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS. WINDS GO
NEARLY CALM TONIGHT BEFORE SWITCHING TO SOUTHEAST AOB 10 KNOTS ON
THURSDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
VEERING WEST ON FRIDAY WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL
BE APPROACHING SCA CRITERIA BY FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

IMPROVEMENT CONTINUES ON AREA RIVERS TODAY. EVART WILL LIKELY BE
THE LONE ADVISORY BEYOND 24 HOURS. A CANCELLATION IS ANTICIPATED
FOR SCOTTVILLE BY SOMETIME THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. CROTON DAM
OPERATIONS HAVE DROPPED LEVELS BELOW ADVISORY STAGE...WHICH WILL
SOON BE CANCELED.

MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.
RAINFALL WILL BE GREATEST OVER WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF LOWER MICHIGAN. TOTALS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND ONE HALF AN
INCH. LESSER TOTALS WILL BE LIKELY FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. THESE AMOUNTS ARE NOT ENOUGH TO
CREATE ANY CONCERN. THE EXTENDED FORECAST MAY WARRANT WATCHING FOR
RAINFALL AND COOLER WEATHER MOVING IN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...OSTUNO






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