Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KLOT 241929
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
229 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
326 AM CDT

SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THE INITIAL
CONCERN WILL BE CLOUD COVER...AND IMPACTS ON VISIBILITY.  FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH/PACIFIC-SOURCED WEAK COLD
FRONT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT ACROSS THE REGION.  A LOW
STRATUS DECK HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOLLOWING THE FROPA...BUT THE STRATUS
DECK IS ERODING IN PLACES...AND WITH CALM TO LGT/VRBL WINDS IN
PLACE...THE CLEARING LOCATIONS ARE EXPERIENCING RAPID FOG
DEVELOPMENT.  THE FOG IS INITIALLY MOSTLY IMPACTING NWRN IL...ARND
THE ROCKFORD AREA...BUT AS THE STRATUS CONTINUES TO
DISSIPATE...ADDITIONAL FOG MAY DEVELOP...BUT ANY DENSE FOG SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO NORTH CENTRAL AND NWRN IL...AWAY FROM THE CHICAGO METRO
AREA.  EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS THAT CLEAR OUT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...EXCEPT FOR SOME
ISOLATED...SHELTERED LOW LYING AREAS...WHICH COULD RADIATE DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 40S.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY...THE WARMING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS
UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
WESTERN PLAINS.  THE MORNING STRATUS AND STRATOCU SHOULD DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT TOTAL SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED AS A
THICK CIRRUS LAYER AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAM DIVES OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE
MIDWEST. THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OVERTOPPING THE RIDGE THIS EVENING...WITH SOME GUIDANCE
INDICATING A LITTLE QPF.  HAVE A HARD TIME INTRODUCING ANY
MENTIONABLE POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS MOISTURE PROFILE FORECASTS ALSO
INDICATE LITTLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.  HOWEVER...SOME OF THE HIGH RES
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME INCREASE RH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
UNDER INCREASINGLY SWLY FLOW...BUT AS FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL BE LIMITED BY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH ERN TX...FEEL THAT THIS INCREASED RH COULD BE
MORE INDICATIVE OF SOME FOG POTENTIAL RATHER THAN PCPN POTENTIAL.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...UNDER INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND
BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT...EXPECT THAT TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY BE AROUND 5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN MILD WITH DEWPOINTS
INCREASING INTO LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
EVENING...SO OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE UNSEASONABLY
MILD...AND ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

KREIN

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PIVOTING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING SOUTH AND
EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING.
MID-LVL HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY RISE AS THE RIDGE PARKED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS PUSHES EAST...BRINGING MILDER AIR TO THE REGION SAT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 60S. THE FAR SOUTHERN CWFA COULD TOUCH 70
DEG SAT. TEMPS SUN ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE FLOW
BEGINS TO TRANSITION BRIEFLY INTO A QUASI-ZONAL SETUP. HOWEVER THIS
DOES NOT LOOK TO REMAIN VERY LONG...AS RIDGING RETURNS FOR MON AND
TEMPS SHUD QUICKLY WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MON...AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW STRENGTHENS. EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY MON TO REMAIN DRY...HOWEVER
LATE AFTN/EVE A DEVELOPING LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAY HELP TO
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE MON.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE
RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT EAST...WITH FLOW TRYING TO FLATTEN.
SUGGESTING THAT A SEMI-ZONAL SETUP MAY DEVELOP BY WED...WHICH WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. TEMPS SHUD RETURN TO
MORE SEASONAL CONDS TUE/WED.

BEACHLER

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...

* CIGS LOWER THIS EVENING...MVFR POSSIBLE.

* MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

* SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA LATE THIS EVENING.

MDB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS
WHICH HAVE BEEN VARIABLE BETWEEN SOUTH AND WEST. WILL SEE A
STEADIER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION DEVELOP INTO THE EVENING AS
THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. FEW-SCT MVFR CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA WITH MOST AREAS VFR. LOW CIGS/VSBY REMAIN ACROSS
RFD BUT IS QUICKLY ERODING NORTHWESTWARD SO EXPECT VFR AT RFD BY
19Z OR SO.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BRING
LOWERING CLOUD COVER. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO AT LEAST LOW END VFR
WITH MVFR POSSIBLE GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND SPOTTY IN COVERAGE. CIGS MAY
FURTHER LOWER TO LOWER END MVFR OVERNIGHT BUT AM NOT HIGHLY
CONFIDENT IN THIS OCCURRING. MAY ALSO SEE VSBY LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS
MOST AREAS AS WELL. AM A LITTLE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT IFR POTENTIAL
AT RFD GIVEN HIGHER RESIDUAL MOISTURE THANKS TO THE STRATUS/FOG
HANGING ON SO LONG TODAY. MAY NEED TO CARRY LOWER CONDITIONS WITH
LATER UPDATES. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
DRIER AIR WORKS IN. THIS WILL ERODE ANY LOW CIGS/VSBY ALLOWING FOR
VFR TO PREVAIL BY MID/LATE MORNING IF NOT SOONER.

MDB

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS LOWERING TO LOWER END VFR THIS
  EVENING...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR VSBY TONIGHT.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THREAT FOR -SHRA IS LOW LATE THIS EVENING.

MDB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. WX NIL.

SUNDAY...VFR. WX NIL.

MONDAY...VFR. WX NIL.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...CHANCE SHRA/SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR. WX NIL.

KREIN

&&

.MARINE...
228 PM CDT

HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY PUSHING EAST WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER
THE LAKE. A WEAK LAKE BREEZE HAS TURNED WINDS ONSHORE OVER LAKE
COUNTY IL.  SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT THIS EVENING WITH
OCNL 30 KT GUSTS PSBL OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS TURN W 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT AND SLOWLY BECOME NW SATURDAY
NIGHT. POINTS NORTH OF WILMETTE HARBOR MAY SEE OCNL GUSTS TO 25 KT
TOMORROW...BUT THINKING SUSTAINED SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE
MET. WINDS DIMINISH AS A HIGH MOVES OVER THE LAKE SUNDAY.  WINDS
BECOME SOUTH BEHIND THE LOW AND THEN TURN SE AND INCREASE TO 20-25
KT AS THE NEXT LOW APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT.  THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
VARIABILITY IN THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE NEXT LOW SO CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THE EXACT WIND SPEEDS. ONE MODEL DOES FEATURE WESTERLY
GALES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT DO NOT HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO THAT HIGH IN THE FORECAST JUST YET.  HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN MID NEXT WEEK AND WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY.

STILL THINKING THERE IS A MARGINAL CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
TO BE MET MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
HEADLINES FOR NOW.

JEE

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.