Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL

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000
FXUS63 KLOT 270915
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
415 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...
401 AM CDT

Today through Sunday...

Forecast challenges focus primarily on attempting to identify
timingof shower and thunderstorm clusters through the Memorial Day
holidayweekend. High perceptible water air mass and slow storm
movementwill present the potential for locally heavy rainfall with
thesestorm clusters.

Upper air analysis and GOES water vapor imagery depict a broad
upper trough across much of the central and western CONUS this
morning...with a closed upper low over eastern Colorado.
Downstream to the east...upper ridging was noted over the
Atlantic and across the mid-Atlantic and southeastern states.
Model guidance is in good agreement in depicting amplification of
the upper ridge across the northeast through the weekend...while
the Plains upper trough takes on a negative-tilt orientation and
slowly lifts northeast toward the upper Mississippi Valley
Saturday and eventually across western Ontario and the western
Great Lakes through Sunday. An elongated area of surface low
pressure from the Texas Panhandle into south-central Kansas is
progged to move slowly northeast across the upper Mississippi
Valley and northern Lakes region in association with the upper
low. East of the track of the upper trough/surface low a very
warm and moist will remain in place across the region...with
embedded smaller-scale short wave troughs and MCV features
modulating areas of convection. Identifying and timing of these
more transitory features...while difficult...will be key to
attempting to add some degree of detail to timing the most likely
periods of convection to affect the forecast area through the
period.

In the near-term...one such feature is noted over northeastern
Missouri and western Illinois early this morning. SPC RAP-
based mesoanalysis data depicts this activity occurring within an
elevated warm frontal zone...featuring 25-30 kt south-southwest
flow and strong moisture advection and frontogenesis within a
region of 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE. High-res guidance including the
HRRR and 4km NAM indicate this activity will continue to lift to
the north-northeast early this morning...though with a weakening
trend noted in forecast reflectivity fields. Current radar trends
suggest greatest potential for convection early this morning will
likely be for western portions of the cwa...where weakening but
persistent moisture transport is depicted. With persistent
warm/moist advection it is hard to rule out additional scattered
convection at just about any time today...though it appears that
this afternoon and evening will be the next period with a greater
potential for convection given diurnal instability max and guidance
indications of energy from another mid-level wave lifting out of
Arkansas. After this evening...have generally maintained low
chance pops into Saturday before more organized forcing develops
late Saturday and Saturday evening...as more significant height
falls develop across the upper Midwest with the approach of the
negatively tilted upper trough...and a cold front which trails
the surface low and pushes across the forecast area overnight.
For this period...have carried high chance/likely pops
particularly across the western portions of the cwa where forcing
and frontal passage will be juxtaposed more closely with the
diurnal instability maximum during the afternoon and evening
hours. Increasing mid/upper level wind speeds will yield stronger
deep-layer bulk shear at this time as well...supporting organized
storms and the potential for strong to severe storms. SPC day 2
outlook does bring the marginal severe risk into the western
counties of the forecast area. Precip threat then looks to
diminish substantially Sunday and Sunday night behind the cold
front.

Temperatures through the weekend are expected to continue to
be above average for late May...with low level thermal fields
supporting low-mid 80s for highs today and Saturday. Considerable
cloud cover and the prospects for areas of precip will tend to
moderate the warmth just a bit however...and have carried lower
80s over much of the area per slightly warmer GFS MAV guidance.
Despite slightly cooler low level temps Sunday...more sun with
drier westerly flow behind the front should still yield lower 80s
in most areas.

Ratzer

&&

.LONG TERM...
407 AM CDT

Monday through Thursday...

A brief period of short-wave ridging develops behind the departing
upper trough Sunday night and Monday...with dry weather expected
across most of the forecast area. ECMWF and GFS do hint at the
potential for some light precip west and northwest of the area and
have maintained a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms for
parts of north central Illinois...though with little large scale
support especially during the daytime hours Monday feel any
activity should be fairly isolated. Low-mid 80s and somewhat less
humid conditions should make for fairly nice weather for Memorial
Day.

Medium range model solutions then decpict another deep trough
developing across the Northern Plains as we head into mid-week.
This will support a return of more humid southerly flow and an
increasing chance for shower and thunderstorms again in the
Tuesday-Wednesday period as the trough moves east across the upper
Midwest. 00z run of the ECMWF brings a cold front through late
Wednesday which would likely dry things out by Thursday...though
the GFS remains slower with the front and lingers the precip
threat into Thursday. Temps continue to run above normal through
the period as we move into June.

RATZER


&&

.AVIATION...
For the 06Z TAFs...

The main forecast concern will be with the potential and timing
of any thunderstorms over the area today.

An atmospheric disturbance is currently driving a cluster of showers
and storms to our southwest over northeastern MO and into portions
of west central IL. This activity is expected to shift to the
northeast through the night...but will likely do so in a weakening
fashion. Remnants of this activity could move over the terminals
after daybreak today...but at this time...I only prefer to mention a
VCSH.

The convective picture looks a bit murky through this afternoon and
evening. The only real feature of interest...which could drive a
period of thunderstorms over the area later this afternoon...is an
upper level disturbance currently noted over the ARKLATEX region.
Forecast guidance suggests this disturbance will shift
northeastward over northeastern IL later in the day during peak
heating. As such...this could be enough to result in thunderstorm
development over the area after 20Z this afternoon. Overall
confidence is low to medium at best at this juncture. However...I
felt justified to include a PROB30 mention for thunder at the
terminals.

KJB

&&

.MARINE...
159 AM CDT

The main weather concerns over Lake Michigan will be the continued
dense fog today...especially over the northern half of the
lake...and also the potential for more thunderstorms.

Light winds and high a dew point air mass over Lake Michigan is
resulting in dense fog...especially over the northern half of the
lake. It appears that this fog will persist through the day
today...and possibly well into tonight as well. As a result...we
have extended the dense fog advisory through late tonight for the
north end of the lake. It appears that although some fog could
persist over the south end of the lake...that the fog advisory there
may be allowed to expire later this morning.

An area of low pressure over the plains...is expected to shift
northeastward over the upper Midwest late Saturday. This storm
system will result in the possibility of a few waves of showers and
storms over the next couple of days. Additionally...it appears that
south winds will be on the increase into the 15 to 20 KT range for
Saturday and Sunday as the low lifts into Ontario.

KJB

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...Dense Fog Advisory...LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 9 AM Friday.

&&

$$

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