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000
FXUS63 KLOT 222212
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
512 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
233 PM CDT

FORECAST FOCUS PRIMARILY ON SHORT TERM HEAT AND HUMIDITY AND
CONVECTIVE CHANCES THIS EVENING. AFTER THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...WE
WILL HAVE A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS...FOLLOWED BY A
RETURN TO A POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE IS BEING FLATTENED BY AN UPPER WAVE
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES. DEWPOINTS ARE POOLING OUT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND WEST...SO
READINGS ARE GENERALLY WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 AND DEWPOINTS
IN MANY AREAS INTO THE 70S WHERE IT STARTS TO FEEL QUITE
UNCOMFORTABLE...EVEN ALL THE WAY TO THE LAKEFRONT. LINGERING CONVECTION
FROM EARLIER TODAY IS SINKING SOUTH AND WEAKENING ALONG THE IA/MO
BORDER. RECENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN ONGOING IN
CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE STORMS
ARE TRYING TO GROW AGAINST THE CAP BUT HAVE OVERALL BEEN
RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE TO THIS POINT. LATEST SPC/RAP
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF VERY HIGH MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY IN
EASTERN IOWA AND EXTENDING INTO FAR NW ILLINOIS WHERE DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. UNFORTUNATELY IN THIS SITUATION THE BEST
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS NOT JUXTAPOSED WITH THE BETTER HEIGHT
FALLS AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE
GLIDING BY TO THE NORTH.

SHORT TERM GUIDANCE STILL REMAINS MIXED TO THIS POINT AS TO HOW
WIDESPREAD THE COVERAGE WILL BE...BUT ANY THAT DO FORM STILL HOLD
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL DUE TO THE MODERATE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWAT VALUES HOVER
ABOVE 2". WHAT WE CAN SAY WITH DECENT CONFIDENCE IS THE TIMING OF ANY
STORMS. SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST A BRIEF WINDOW OF THE CAPPING
TO BE ERODED IN NORTH CENTRAL INTO NE ILLINOIS IN THE 6-7 PM TIME
FRAME...MOVING THROUGH METROPOLITAN AREA BETWEEN 8-11PM...AND THEN
SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW INDIANA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON A FULL
LINE DEVELOPING AS SOME MODELS INDICATE AS THE CAPPING HOLDS IN OUR
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE WEAKER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER
FORCING WILL HAVE A HARDER TIME WITH THE CAP. STILL BELIEVE THERE
WILL BE SCATTERED ACTIVITY DURING THIS PERIOD. WOULD LIKE TO BE MORE
DEFINITIVE WITH THE POPS AT THIS TIME FRAME BUT WILL GENERALLY
CONTINUE THE 40-50 POP/SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR MOST AREAS AS THE CAP
LOOKS TO KEEPS THINGS IN CHECK AT LEAST AT THIS POINT. CLOSER TO
THE LAKE WE MAY GET SLIGHTLY BETTER HEIGHT FALLS LATER THIS
EVENING ALONG WITH THE FRONT.

THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE...THUS THE WINDOW FOR STORMS
FOR ANY ONE AREA APPEARS TO BE PRETTY SHORT.  BY DAYBREAK THE FRONT
SHOULD LARGELY HAVE PASSED THROUGH THE ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA.
THERE MAY BE SOME LOWER CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO
THE LAKE IN THE ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN. COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES
THROUGH THE DAY THUS EXPECT SOME WARMING WITH SOLAR INSOLATION BEING
STRONG...BUT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE A QUICKER DROP OFF IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LOOKS LIKE A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH NW FLOW
ALOFT IN PLACE WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY
AMPLIFIES INTO SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA.  NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IN
THE PATTERN FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND SHIFTS
EAST...MAINTAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS UNDER ONSHORE FLOW.

THE UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT IS MOVING BY TODAY WILL MERGE WITH A
LARGE UPPER LOW IN THE HUDSON BAY AREA THAT GETS BLOCKED BY A RIDGE
IT THE ATLANTIC BASIN. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A
SURFACE LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY LOOKS TO
TRIGGER A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY TO THE
EVOLUTION ON THE WEEKEND AS A SURFACE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PACIFIC LOW IS HANDLED QUITE DIFFERENTLY...THUS SOME TIMING CONCERNS
AS TO WHEN THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH...WHICH WILL
PROVIDE ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

BEYOND THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES SOMEWHAT WITH
MODELS/ENSEMBLES DEPICTING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN WITH A
LARGE RIDGE IN THE WEST AND AN ANOMALOUS LOW IN THE EAST KEEPING THE
REGION UNDER NW FLOW FOR COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS
OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

KMD

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...

* GUSTY SSW WINDS INTO THE LOW 20 KT RANGE THROUGH LATE
  AFTERNOON.
* CHANCE OF SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
  DEVELOPING IN THE AREA THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BEST
  TIMING APPEARS TO BE IN THE 01 TO 04 UTC TIME FRAME.
* WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTH THIS EVENING WITH COLD FRONTAL
  PASSAGE...THEN NORTHEAST.
* POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW CIGS BEHIND FRONT.
* NORTHEASTERLY WINDS (020-030 DIRECTION) AROUND 14 KT WITH SOME
  GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ON WEDNESDAY.

KJB/MTF

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 20Z...
WE HAVE OPTED TO DROP THE TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING AT THE TERMINALS. THE LATEST AMDAR SOUNDINGS OUT OF KORD
AND KMDW INDICATE AROUND 14 DEGREE CELSIUS TEMPERATURES AT 700
MB...WHICH IS PROVIDING A VERY STRONG CAP IN SPITE OF THE
PRESENCE OF 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S DEW
POINTS. WITH THIS IN MIND...IT APPEARS THAT ANY ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS BY EARLY THIS EVENING MAY BE JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
AND OF LOW AREAL COVERAGE (ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT). AT THIS
TIME...I WILL CONTINUE THE VCTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW CELLS NEARBY.

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IS BECOMING VERY WARM...MOIST AND
HENCE VERY UNSTABLE. THEREFORE...THE THREAT FOR AT LEAST SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL ON TAP FOR THE AREA AROUND THE EARLY TO MID
EVENING HOURS TODAY. THE MAIN QUESTION THAT REMAINS...HOWEVER...IS
HOW WIDESPREAD THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS THE TERMINAL
AIRSPACE THIS EVENING. IN SPITE OF THE PRESENCE OF A VERY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ACT TO INHIBIT
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHEN THE
SURFACE FRONT AND AN ACCOMPANYING MID LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC DISTURBANCE
APPROACH THE AREA. IT APPEARS THAT ALTHOUGH THE FORCING FOR ASCENT
FROM THIS APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN VERY MODEST...IT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN WI AREA AROUND THE 00 UTC TIME FRAME...THEN SHIFT
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE AREAL COVERAGE COULD BE
FAIRLY LOW INITIALLY DUE TO INHIBITING FACTOR OF WARMER AIR ALOFT.
THEREFORE...THIS SHEDS SOME DOUBT AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE TERMINALS
WILL BE DIRECTLY IMPACTED BY ANY OF THESE STORMS. IN SPITE OF THESE
UNCERTAINTIES...I WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER 00 UTC THROUGH AROUND 04 UTC THIS EVENING.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE EVENING THE WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. IT
APPEARS THE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
NORTHEASTERLY (020-030 DIRECTION) WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT.

KJB

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...

* MEDIUM-HIGH WITH WIND TRENDS/TIMING/MAGNITUDE.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSRA AT A GIVEN TERMINAL AS AREAL COVERAGE MAY
  REMAIN FAIRLY LOW.
* LOW WITH MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

KJB/MTF

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR TSRA.

BMD

&&

.MARINE...
300 PM CDT

LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC TONIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL
PUSH SOUTH DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE LAKE TONIGHT. MODERATELY STRONG
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 30 KT WITH OCCASIONAL 35
KT GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL GO INTO EFFECT LATE TONIGHT AND
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WHEN WINDS AND WAVES
WILL TAPER OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION.

KREIN

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...ILZ006-ILZ014...1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10
     AM THURSDAY.

IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002...1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10
     AM THURSDAY.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
     LMZ745...1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM THURSDAY.

&&

$$

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