Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KLOT 040903
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
303 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
818 PM CST

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT
HAS CLEARED THE AREA AND COLDER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE AREA ON
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. THE RATE OF COOLING WILL INCREASE INTO
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT AND HAVE MADE LITTLE IF ANY ADJUSTMENT TO
EXPECTED LOWS BY DAYBREAK. LOW CLOUDS HAVE TEMPORARILY SCATTERED
IN SOME AREAS BUT WILL FILL BACK IN THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING BEFORE ERODING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MID CLOUD COVER WILL TAKE OVER IN ITS PLACE SO
ANY CLEARING WOULD LIKELY BE BRIEF AND SPOTTY.

MDB

&&

.SHORT TERM...
247 PM CST

THROUGH THURSDAY...

SOMEWHAT BAGGY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
AND USHER IN PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR MASS THROUGH THE NIGHT. AHEAD
OF THE INTO THE EARLY-MID EVENING ANTICIPATE LOW STRATUS HANGING
AROUND AND LIKELY RESULTING IN NEARLY STEADY TEMPS AND HAVE GONE A
BIT ABOVE HOURLY GUIDANCE TEMPS HANGING ONTO 30S INTO THE EARLY
EVENING OVER MOST OF THE CWA BEFORE BOTTOM DROPS OUT LATE TONIGHT.
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS
WILL MOVE IN AS WELL...SO NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTING SKIES TO GO CLEAR.

A COUPLE DAYS OF UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER LOOK TO BE ON TAP
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT HAS POTENTIAL TO GIVE
CHICAGO`S RECORD LOW A RUN FOR ITS MONEY...THOUGH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS COULD BE RATHER EXTENSIVE FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT AND WINDS STAYING UP A BIT. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS COULD KEEP
TEMPS FROM REALIZING THEIR FULL FRIGID POTENTIAL...THOUGH ANY LATE
NIGHT CLEARING COULD ALLOW FOR LAST MINUTE DROPS IN TEMPS. ARCTIC
HIGH WILL BE NEAR BY THURSDAY WITH HEART OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS
OVERHEAD TO START THE DAY...SUGGESTING THAT HIGHS COULD THREATEN
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS. FULL SUNSHINE THURSDAY WITH LOWER ALBEDO IN
CHICAGO AND RFD METRO AREAS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE A BIT
ABOVE GUIDANCE AND HAVE TRENDED HIGHS EVER SO SLIGHTLY UPWARD.

IZZI

&&

.LONG TERM...
247 PM CST

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT COULD BE ONE OF THOSE NIGHTS THAT SEE TEMPERATURES
CRASH DURING THE EVENING HOURS GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND PROXIMITY OF
THE HIGH. HIGH DOES SCOOT OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS LOOK TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
LEVEL OFF AND THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY RISE PRIOR TO SUNRISE AND DID
REFLECT THIS TREND IN THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS.

FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BE FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD WITH A TREND TO
NORMAL AND THEN POTENTIALLY EVEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. STRONG MARCH SUN AND TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING THIS WEEKEND
DURING THE DAYTIME SHOULD BEGIN THE PROCESS OF CHIPPING AWAY AT THE
DEEP SNOW PACK/GLACIER THAT HAS BLANKETED THE REGION SINCE THE EARLY
FEBRUARY BLIZZARD. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE MONTH...THE QUICKER THE SNOW PACK MELTS THE WARMER
TEMPS COULD POTENTIALLY GET AS A MEAN RIDGE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OF
THE NATION`S MID SECTION.

IZZI

&&

.CLIMATE...

WE COULD COME CLOSE TO A COUPLE RECORDS WITH THIS NEXT COLD SPELL.
THE ONES WITH STARS (*) ARE MOST VULNERABLE.

  WED 3/4  THU 3/5
ROCKFORD

RECORD LOW-11 (2002)-11 (2002)
RECORD LOW MAX 14 (2002)* 17 (1960)*

CHICAGO
RECORD LOW-12 (1873)  0 (1978)*
RECORD LOW MAX   17 (1890)       12 (1901)

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...

* GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY.

BMD

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A MODEST NORTHWEST GRADIENT IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR STRATUS DESK IS
ALSO IN PLACE ACROSS THE MIDWEST THOUGH A CLEARING LINE WAS NOTED
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA AND WISCONSIN THOUGH HAS SINCE
BECOME SHROUDED UNDER HIGHER CLOUDS. BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATION...WOULD EXPECT THE MVFR CIGS TO SCATTER OUT DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

BMD

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...

* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
  WIND GUST SPEEDS WEDNESDAY.

BMD

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS PSBL.

SUNDAY...SCHC RAIN OR SNOW OVERNIGHT...MVFR CIGS PSBL.

MONDAY...MVFR CIGS PSBL IN THE MORNING.

JEE

&&

.MARINE...
301 AM CST

A COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY RESULTING IN MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 30 KT TODAY
WHICH COMBINED WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVING OVER THE LAKE
COULD RESULT IN SOME FREEZING SPRAY. WINDS SHOULD TAPER GRADUALLY
TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST...THEN BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE HIGH SETTLES ALONG THE
OHIO VALLEY. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...BUT WARM ADVECTION OVER THE LAKE SHOULD HELP KEEP THE
GUSTS IN CHECK. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

BMD

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
     UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.