Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL

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000
FXUS63 KLOT 191901
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
201 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...
156 PM CDT

Tonight and Sunday...

Dry, quiet weather expected to finish the weekend, with warmer
and slightly more humid conditions for Sunday.

High pressure was drifting east across the forecast area this
afternoon, with sunny skies and light winds making for pleasant
weather. Light winds will turn southeasterly tonight as the high
drifts off to the east, with clear skies and light flow allowing
for the development of some patchy shallow ground fog in a few
spots by sunrise Sunday morning.

Winds will turn southerly Sunday, with enough gradient flow to
limit any lake breeze cooling primarily to the immediate IL shore
area north of Chicago. Progged 925 mb temps of +23-25C should
support highs in the 85-90 degree range by afternoon, with a
gradual return of low-mid 60`s surface dew points making it feel a
bit more humid. Forecast time-height sections and soundings
suggest plenty of sunshine, though some increase in thin high
cloud is likely late in the day.

Ratzer

&&

.LONG TERM...
156 PM CDT

Sunday night through Saturday...

Warm and somewhat humid conditions will be in place through the
first couple days of the upcoming week, with drier and cooler
conditions arriving for the latter half of the week.

High pressure providing fair weather to the region this weekend
will shift to the mid Atlantic coast by Monday while broad and
disorganized area of low pressure sets up over the central Great
Plains. Deep corridor of southerly flow will help to transport
higher dewpoints back into the region while 850mb thermal ridge
overhead will allow surface temps to warm into the mid to upper
80s Monday afternoon. Guidance continues to suggest widespread
convection off to our west Sunday night approaching or entering
the local area Monday morning. Unstable conditions will be in
place Monday and it remains plausible for showers and
thunderstorms to develop on remnant outflow boundaries or any MCV
that is able to track across the area. Confidence in details
remains low at this distance given lack of broad scale synoptic
support Monday, but will continue to maintain chance PoPs and
partly to mostly cloudy sky cover.

Monday night into Tuesday, a strong upper wave is progged to dig
across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes carving out a deep trough
across the eastern half of the country and is expected to persist
through the end of the week. At the surface, low pressure will
develop over the Great Lakes with a trailing cold front sagging
south across northern Illinois Tuesday morning and afternoon.
Showers and thunderstorms will be likely with fropa and the
potential for moderately strong instability and increasing deep
layer shear may allow for some degree of a severe threat across
the CWA.

Behind the front, an expansive high will build south from the
Canadian Prairies into the Upper Midwest transporting a cooler and
drier airmass over the region. Wednesday through Saturday should
see plenty of sunshine each day with highs only in the 70s and
dewpoints much more comfortable in the 50s

Deubelbeiss

&&

.AVIATION...
For the 18Z TAFs...

No significant aviation weather concerns this afternoon, with
VFR conditions and light east lake breeze winds for ORD/MDW.

Surface high pressure spreading east across northern IL and
northwest IN this afternoon, supplying light/variable winds and
mainly clear skies across the terminals. Lake breeze has developed
and is pushing inland toward ORD/MDW at midday, and expect
variable winds generally less than 5 kts to become easterly less
than 10 kts shortly.

Winds will shift to the south-southeast tonight as the high drifts
off to the east, with modest south winds persisting Sunday. Mainly
clear skies expected, with some patchy high clouds especially
later in the day Sunday.

Ratzer

&&

.MARINE...
156 PM CDT

High pressure is centered over portions of the Upper Midwest and
across southern Lake Michigan this afternoon resulting in light
flow and allowing for lake breezes to develop this afternoon.
Modest southwest flow will persist across the northern half of
Lake Michigan peaking around 20 kt at times. South to southwest
flow will increase again Sunday and continue into Monday as low
pressure advances east across the Canadian Prairies. A trailing
cold front is expected to push south across the lake through the
day Tuesday turning winds northerly in its wake.

BMD

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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