Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL

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000
FXUS63 KLOT 041914
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
214 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...
213 PM CDT

THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO BE GLOOMY AND
BLUSTERY WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS.  HI-RES
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE ALSO A BIT HIGHER THAN I WOULD LIKE
TO SEE...BUT DECIDED TO KEEP ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AS A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP AT ALL...AND THINKING THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
REGION WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.  KEPT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA LATE THIS EVENING AS GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE BAND OF SHOWERS OVER MICHIGAN WILL ROTATE
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN SPREADS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. CLOUDS SCATTER
OUT THROUGH THE MORNING AND WINDS LIGHTEN. EXPECTING A LAKE BREEZE
TO FORM IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S AWAY FROM
THE LAKE AND IN THE 50S ALONG THE LAKE SHORE.

JEE

&&

.LONG TERM...
326 AM CDT

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

FRIDAY WILL BRING A BIG WARM-UP TO THE REGION AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WEST-SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN JUST ENOUGH TO PREVENT MUCH INLAND PUSH TO THE LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HELPING TO WARM TEMPS NEARLY 20 DEGREES OVER
THURSDAYS NUMBERS. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS FROM THE
MID-UPPER 70S EAST TO THE LOW-MID 80S FARTHER WEST.

UNFORTUNATELY...GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A
FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A SURFACE COLD
FRONT SAGGING INTO THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY. WINDS SHIFT NORTH-
NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO THE BRIEF
WARM-UP FOR AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. TEMPS MAY REACH THE 60S
BEFORE THE COOL ADVECTION PUSH BEHIND THE BACK DOOR FRONT
CAUSES TEMPS TO FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE LAKE. EVEN WELL
INLAND TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL FROM THE 70S INTO THE 60S BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS PICK UP. AS MODELS HAVE
CONTINUED TO TREND EARLIER WITH THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY...THE
GREATEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LARGELY BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE FRONT THEN SAGS ALL THE WAY TO THE
OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT... FOCUSING PRECIP POTENTIAL MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE CWA UNTIL THE FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY-
TUESDAY. WHILE IT WILL BE COOLER WITH THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...IT WILL BE MILDER THAN
THE VERY NEAR TERM. TEMPS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE 50S/60S RIGHT
ALONG THE LAKE TO THE 70S OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

RATZER

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...

LOW END VFR CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING. WILL LIKELY SEE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. KEPT A VCSH GOING AS ONE OF THESE SHOWERS MAY WANDER
OVER THE TERMINALS...BUT EXPECTING A MOSTLY DRY AFTERNOON. WINDS
ARE SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWEST THAN EXPECTED AND THEY WILL REMAIN
GUSTY ESPECIALLY AT GYY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME DUE
NORTH AND BEGIN EASING THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER
THE REGION TOMORROW WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KT. A
LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TOMORROW.

JEE

&&

.MARINE...
213 PM CDT

HEADLINES...WILL CONTINUE THE GALE WARNING AND SMALL CRAFT AS
PLANNED.

WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT.
WINDS BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY MORNING AND INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT PASSES
OVER ONTARIO. THE LOWS COLD FRONT SHIFTS DOWN THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH TO 30 KT BEHIND IT.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR HIGH WAVES SATURDAY.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE LAKE SUNDAY BEFORE
QUICKLY SHIFTING EAST OVER THE EAST COAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
WHILE GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE PATH OF THE LOW MID NEXT WEEK...BOTH
AGREE THAT A LOW MAY IMPACT THE MIDWEST REGION IN THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

JEE

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 PM WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY.

     GALE WARNING...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 4 AM
     THURSDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...4 AM THURSDAY TO 3
     PM THURSDAY.

&&

$$

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