Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 250438 AAC
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1138 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.UPDATE...


&&

.AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...

VFR conditions are expected overnight into Tuesday night across
the area. High pressure will slowly move to the east of the area
during this time.

Light and variable winds are expected into early Tuesday morning.
Light south winds are then expected Tuesday, becoming southeast
near the lake in the late morning and afternoon. They will become
south Tuesday night.

Some high clouds may move through the area overnight into
Tuesday. Scattered diurnal cumulus clouds should develop by later
Tuesday morning and afternoon. Middle to high clouds should
become more extensive Tuesday night.

Wood

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 937 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017)

UPDATE...

High pressure moving slowly to the east of the region will bring
quiet weather overnight into Tuesday. There may be some middle to
high clouds that slide southeast through the area during this
time. Light and variable winds may allow for some ground fog
development toward sunrise in the usual spots. Lows in the 50s are
expected overnight in most areas, with highs around 80 on Tuesday.
Lake breeze should cool things down near Lake Michigan in the
late morning and afternoon.

Wood

MARINE...

Winds will continue to weaken into the evening hours from north
to south across the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan, as high
pressure moves over and east of the area. Waves will continue to
subside as well in a similar north to south fashion.

Thus, will allow the Small Craft Advisory to expire at 10 PM CDT
for areas south of North Point Lighthouse.

Light south winds Tuesday morning will become southeast later
Tuesday morning into the afternoon. Light waves are expected.

Wood

BEACHES...

Winds and waves will continue to weaken into the evening hours
from north to south across the beaches on the Lake Michigan
shoreline. High pressure moving into the area will allow for these
winds and waves to weaken. Thus, the high swim risk will be
reduced to a moderate swim risk from north to south this evening.

The Beach Hazards Statement will be allowed to expire at 10 PM
CDT for Milwaukee, Racine and Kenosha Counties.

Wood

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 655 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017)

UPDATE...

AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...

VFR conditions are expected tonight and Tuesday across the area.
High pressure will slowly move to the east of the area during
this time.

Winds will become light and variable by early this evening,
lingering into early Tuesday morning. Light south winds are then
expected Tuesday, becoming southeast near the lake in the late
morning and afternoon.

Some high clouds may move through the area early this evening.
Mostly clear skies overnight will give way to some diurnal cumulus
clouds by later Tuesday morning and afternoon. Some middle to
high clouds will move into the area during the afternoon as well.

Wood

MARINE...

Winds will continue to weaken into the evening hours from north
to south across the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan, as high
pressure moves over the area. Waves will continue to subside as
well in a similar north to south fashion.

Thus, will allow the Small Craft Advisory to expire at 7 PM CDT
for areas north of North Point Lighthouse, and south of there at
10 PM CDT.

Light south winds Tuesday morning will become southeast later
Tuesday morning into the afternoon. Light waves are expected.

Wood

BEACHES...

Winds and waves will continue to weaken into the evening hours
from north to south across the beaches on the Lake Michigan
shoreline. High pressure moving into the area will allow for these
winds and waves to weaken. Thus, the high swim risk will be
reduced to a moderate swim risk from north to south this evening.

The Beach Hazards Statement will be allowed to expire at 7 PM CDT
for Sheboygan and Ozaukee Counties, and at 10 PM CDT for
Milwaukee, Racine and Kenosha Counties.

Wood

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 325 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017)

SHORT TERM...
Tonight and Tuesday...Forecast confidence is High.

High pressure will remain in control of our weather regime
tonight, and begin to relinquish control on Tuesday. Diurnal
cumulus will continue to scatter out, lingering a bit longer over
far southwestern portions of the area before clearing after
sunset. Easterly winds will gradually subside this evening, with
southerly winds redeveloping across the area on Tuesday.

Moisture will begin to return Tuesday with temperatures returning
to around the 80 degree mark. A cold front located well to our
northwest will be a focus for showers/storms across MN into
northern WI and should stay out of our area.

LONG TERM...
Wednesday and Thursday...Forecast confidence is Medium.

Aforementioned cold front will get a kick from a mid level
shortwave later Wednesday into Wednesday night. There is enough
deep layer shear and modest CAPE values to continue to mention the
risk for a few severe storms. Low level wind fields look messy, as
a result we are looking at mainly a wind/hail risk. The atmosphere
will once again be quite moist with precipitable water values are
2". As a result, there is concern for locally heavy rainfall. The
challenge is exactly where pockets of heavy rain will set up.
While difficult to pinpoint at this juncture, it is best to note
that this system should be progressive, but there is potential
for 1-2" of rain in spots Wednesday night.

Temperatures will be warm/muggy with highs in the 80s and heat
index values around 90 degrees (give or take).

Friday to Monday...Forecast confidence is Medium.

The medium range models continue to suggest a nice break from our
recent warm/muggy/rainy pattern. Upper level ridge of high
pressure shifts to the western CONUS while our region is nestled
beneath northwest flow aloft. This will result in at/just below
average temperatures, comfortable humidity and little if any
chances for rain through the weekend and quite possibly into early
next week too.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...
High pressure is sinking further south across northern WI and
drier air is working into southern WI. The band of MVFR BKN to OVC
ceilings will continue to shift into southwest WI. Some
question with how long they will stick around but think they
should scatter out later this afternoon or evening. Elsewhere
across southern WI, expect clouds bases to become scattered around
2500ft with clearing skies this evening. VFR conditions are
expected later today or this evening through the remainder of the
TAF period. Northeast wind gusts around 20 knots will weaken this
afternoon. Some fog is possible in the favored areas late tonight.

MARINE...
There will be a few northeasterly wind gusts to 25 knots this
afternoon, though a general weakening trend in winds is expected
heading into this evening as surface high pressure moves overhead.
Waves around 3 to 4 feet will linger into the early evening
hours. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect.

Winds will shift to southerly on Thursday with waves in the 1 to 2
foot range.

BEACHES...
A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for a High Swim Risk
along the Lake Michigan Shoreline through this evening. This
means dangerous pounding waves and life-threatening currents are
expected at the beaches. People visiting the beaches should stay
out of the water.

Brisk northeast winds will build high waves along the shoreline.
Waves will taper off from north to south late this afternoon and
evening, so the counties in southeast WI have a later end time
than the northern counties.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Update...Wood
Tonight/Tuesday and Aviation/Marine...Gagan
Tuesday Night through Monday...Gagan



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