Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 272011
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
311 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...

Tonight and Sunday...Forecast confidence is low with respect to
PoP forecast tonight.

Complicated forecast tonight into tomorrow mrng with a potential
for a PoP fcst bust. MCV currently tracking ENE thru cntrl IA
should cross CWA tonight. Big question is what will be left of it
by the time it gets here. Model guidance not much help today as
solutions range from almost completely dry to a scenario that
would suggest categorical PoPs. Much will depend on if there is
any re-intensification of the system this aftn/evng. Think either
way, that there will be at least scattered showers assoc with the
feature as it tracks across the FA. Tried to narrow best chance
for likely PoPs to the late night into Sun mrng. There will be
additional shower and storm chances drng the aftn as a cold front
approaches late in the day. Otherwise...expect seasonal temps with
highs near 70 on Sun...cooler at the lake.

.LONG TERM...

Sunday evening through Tuesday...Forecast confidence is medium:

May see a few showers/storms lingering into early Sunday evening
as a surface boundary slides through. Expect dry weather then for
the rest of the evening and overnight.

Another shortwave is progged to slide through on Memorial Day,
bringing a chance for showers and a few storms. It is still not
expected to be an all day event, so hopefully there will be plenty
of opportunities to enjoy the holiday. Temps will be within a
couple degrees of normal.

Yet another wave could bring a few showers on Tuesday, with temps
cooling to a few degrees below normal.

Tuesday evening through Saturday...Forecast confidence is medium:

High pressure sliding by to the south should bring mainly dry
weather from Tuesday evening into early Thursday. More shortwaves
will then bring shower and storm chances back into the area
Thursday afternoon through Saturday.

Temps are expected to be near normal mid to late week, through
there are some model differences by late week. The GFS brings
high pressure in from the northwest late in the week, resulting in
less precip chances and cooler temps. The ECMWF has the high
sliding by to the east, keeping a milder and more active pattern
in place.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

VFR conditions should hold until more rain and low clouds move
into the region after 6Z. There is a small chance for a SHRA/TSTM
across cntrl/e cntrl WI this aftn but this threat will diminish
quickly after sunset. Scattered precip should overspread the area
after midnight and continue in an on/off fashion most of the
morning. Overall VSBYs should remain VFR but CIGs will gradually
become MVFR from SW to NE between 6-12Z. Precip is expected to end
late mrng but a chance of rain will continue area wide thru the
aftn.

&&

.MARINE...

Westerly winds will be breezy Memorial Day through Wednesday, with
Small Craft Advisory conditions possible each day. The offshore
flow will keep waves on the lower end.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Tonight/Sunday and Aviation/Marine...BM/DDV
Sunday Night through Saturday...DDV



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