791
FXUS63 KMKX 021354
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
854 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few rounds of showers and thunderstorms through early
  Friday morning. Isolated strong storms possible, but
  widespread severe weather is not expected.

- Limited rain chances late Saturday into Saturday night,
  followed by additional precipitation chances for the early to
  middle portion of next workweek.

.UPDATE...
Issued 854 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

An area of rain and embedded thunderstorms will move into the
area over the next few hours. The most widespread rainfall will
be along and west of I-90. It still looks like we may see a
decrease in rain coverage for a time late morning and early
afternoon (PoPs down into the 30-40% range), before another area
of showers and storms moves through late afternoon and evening.
This second round will have a little more instability to work
with, especially near the IL state line. Still thinking that the
overall severe threat will be limited, but with at least
marginal instability and sufficient shear, a few stronger storms
remain possible.

Boxell

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 355 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Today through Friday:

Low pressure will lift from the Central Plains early this
morning into central Wisconsin by mid-evening. Low precip
chances (<40%) will continue through early morning, with higher
chances (50-80%) mid morning into the afternoon as moisture and
forcing increase ahead of the low. Expecting at least some
elevated instability to sneak into southern Wisconsin by early
this afternoon. Best chance to see some surface based
instability will be late afternoon into early evening towards
the WI/IL border, as the warm slowly pushes northward into the
area. Overall, it does seem that there will be a few
thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening. While CAPE will
be limited and lapse rates aren`t steep, shear looks fairly
solid. So, still thinking there could be a couple stronger
storms, with a severe storm not out of the question.

Temperatures will struggle through at least early today with
the clouds and onshore winds north of the warm front. Should see
some milder temps nudge in from the south as the warm front
begins to lift through the area later today. Overall, models
have the warm front farther north into the forecast area by late
afternoon compared to 24 hours ago.

Showers should clear the east by around daybreak Friday, with
clearing skies then west to east Friday morning. Looks like a
nice day tomorrow, with plenty of sunshine, light winds, and
highs around 70. Cooler temps are likely in the afternoon near
the lake due to a lake breeze.

DDV

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 355 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Friday Night through Wednesday:

Friday night will have quiet weather across southern Wisconsin.
Mid-level shortwave trough then approaches forecast area on
Saturday. It looks to move fairly quick, but timing should be
favorable for another round of thunderstorms beginning Saturday
afternoon, especially over southwest Wisconsin. It looks like
there will be just enough of a period of heating, low level
moisture return, and surface based potential energy for scattered
or even a line of storms by late Saturday afternoon and early
evening, eventually moving over Lake Michigan. Models indicating
an approaching front, which should help surface moisture
convergence. However, a few models are keeping the primary energy
just south of the forecast area. Regardless, will watch timing of
this potential event.

Aforementioned cold front moves through southern Wisconsin by
Saturday night with drier air behind this front. Therefore, high
expectation for clearing and cool temperatures for Saturday night.
Then, ridging aloft sets in for Sunday and Monday for dry
conditions for parts of the great lakes and upper midwest. Both
days will be warm with increase in surface wind on Monday.

Next system then moves out of the Rockies Monday night into
Tuesday. Still much uncertainty this far out, but southern
Wisconsin could end up with pieces of energy rotating around this
more broad trough, along with a surface boundary nearby on
Tuesday. It could result in periods of showers and thunderstorms
into Tuesday night. Low level moisture should result in more
clouds and slightly cooler temperatures on Wednesday.

KPL

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 854 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Rain and thunderstorms will become more widespread this morning,
with additional convection expected this afternoon and evening.
Look for flight conditions to gradually deteriorate to MVFR,
with periods of IFR possible in and around the heavier showers
and storms. Winds will be from the east through late afternoon,
before they transition to a more southerly and then
southwesterly direction. West winds are then expected late
tonight and into the day on Friday, with flight conditions
improving to VFR by early Friday morning.

Boxell

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 355 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Low pressure over the Central Plains early this morning will
lift to central Wisconsin by mid evening, continuing northward
tonight. Breezy winds will transition from easterly ahead of a
warm front early today, to southerly behind the front this
evening into early tonight, and then westerly by early Friday.
Areas of fog will be possible tonight into early Friday as
higher dewpoints advect through the area over the colder waters
of Lake Michigan.

Lighter winds are expected Friday under high pressure. Winds
will then likely be 15 knots or less through the upcoming
weekend, with high pressure in place much of the time.

DDV

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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