Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 270227 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
827 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.UPDATE...

DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE FOG ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
A FEW HOURS...GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS ACROSS THAT AREA. STILL
EXPECTING SOME FOG TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...AS
MOISTURE PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH LIGHT WINDS.

KEPT THE REST OF THE FORECAST UNCHANGED FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING FOR NOW. 00Z NAM IS NOW A BIT FURTHER NORTHWEST
WITH THE LOW TRACK THAN THE 12Z GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF RUNS...WHICH
WOULD KEEP EVEN MORE OF THE AREA ON THE MILD SIDE. MAY MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIPITATION TYPES AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES IF OTHER MODELS SHOW THIS TREND.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THE 09Z TO 11Z SATURDAY
PERIOD...WHEN LOW STRATUS WITH CEILINGS BELOW ALTERNATE MINIMUMS
ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS TAF SITES. FOG WITH VISIBILITIES TO
3 MILES ARE EXPECTED AS WELL BY 09Z TO 11Z SATURDAY...WITH LOWER
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT
RAIN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL. ANY LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT
SNOW MIX OR ALL LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD REMAIN
NORTHWEST OF MADISON.

LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND 16Z TO 18Z
SATURDAY...WHEN GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP. THESE WILL BECOME
WESTERLY AND LAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...TAPERING DOWN SATURDAY
EVENING. GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH THE GUSTY WINDS...WITH
CEILINGS RISING TO MVFR CATEGORY.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FROM 18Z SATURDAY TO 04Z SUNDAY
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE...WHICH WILL GENERATE WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET TOWARD THE
OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A
500MB SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND ALONG AN 850MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE DIRECTLY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WI AT 12Z/6 AM SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AREA LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE NOON HOUR. PLAN ON GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.

LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF IN SOUTHERN WI UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND EVEN AFTER THAT IT SHOULD BE SPOTTY. THIS WILL BE A
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN/LOW CLOUD/FOG EVENT FOR SOUTHERN WI TONIGHT. THE
BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WITH THE
SURFACE LOW SATURDAY MORNING... WHICH WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST.
THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT... MAINLY RAIN THAT
COULD CHANGE OVER TO A WET... SLUSHY SNOW NORTHWEST OF MADISON
BEFORE TAPERING OFF MIDDAY SATURDAY. LESS THAN AN INCH ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED TOWARD CENTRAL WI.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
TO HIGH.

WNWLY WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WILL DECREASE SAT NT AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEARING SKIES SETTLES OVER SRN WI. THE HIGH
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SUN WITH SUNSHINE AND TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS TO THEN INCREASE LATE SUN
NT AND MON AS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES ARE WITHIN
THE CONFLUENT ZONE OF THE NRN AN SRN JET STREAMS ALONG WITH AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THE AIRMASS REMAINS
FAIRLY DRY WITH PWS AROUND 0.25 INCHES SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF
SNOW ARE FORECAST FOR MON AND MON NT. AT THE SFC...A COLD FROPA IS
EXPECTED MON AM WITH NLY WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING INTO
MON NT. TEMPS WILL COOL TO NORMAL FOR MON WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE CWA BY EARLY TUE AM.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT COLD TEMPS FOR TUE
AND WED WHILE A 1050 MB ARCTIC HIGH MOVES FROM THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS. AS THE LARGE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ACROSS THE SRN USA AND TO THE EAST COAST...A SWLY SFC FLOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THUS
TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THU-FRI. NO SNOW
EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

SOUTHWEST FLOW IS BRINGING ADDED MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN WI TODAY.
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO SPREAD IN BY EVENING...WHICH WILL LOWER TO IFR
BY MIDNIGHT AND LIFR LATE TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
OVERHEAD. VSBY WILL BE DOWN TO A MILE OR TWO IN FOG WITH THE LOW
CEILINGS.

EXPECT SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN WI
AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT WILL POSSIBLY MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW
NORTHWEST OF MADISON SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY MIDDAY.
EXPECT GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT. GUSTS WILL LIKELY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVY LEVELS IN
THE AFTERNOON FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AS SOON AS THE LIGHT RAIN
ENDS. THUS... ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 10 PM CST SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GEHRING



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