Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 240846
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
246 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...

Today And Tonight...Forecast Confidence Is High.

The main story for today will be the strong south to southwest
wind and the very mild high temperatures. A strong surface low
pressure system will track north of Lake Superior today into this
evening, dragging a cold front through southern Wisconsin. Strong
southerly winds ahead of the front will pull a wedge of warmer air
into the western Great Lakes, allowing us to mix deeper into the
strong winds aloft.

At this time, it looks like the mixing won`t be deep enough to
bring Wind Advisory strength winds, but it may get close for a
time this afternoon. Highs today will push into the mid 50s to
lower 60s, with winds gusting at times to near 40 mph this
afternoon. The record high in Madison is 62F, so we`ll be close to
that one for sure. Milwaukee is 65F, don`t think we can achieve
that.

The trough/front will come through rather dry. The better
forcing/moisture remains to our north, but we can`t rule out a few
raindrops late this afternoon and early evening, mainly north of
Milwaukee/Madison. No threat for wintry weather with this system.

Saturday Through Sunday Night...Forecast Confidence Is High.

Models are showing the main 500 mb shortwave trough moving to the
east of the area Saturday morning, with northwest flow lingering
into Sunday night. Cold air advection lingers into Saturday
morning as well, with brisk northwest winds.

High pressure is expected to slide southeast from the central
Plains into the lower Mississippi River Valley Saturday into
Sunday. Weak low pressure should move southeast across Ontario
Canada Sunday, with a weak high moving into the region for Sunday
night.

The airmass over the region will remain fairly dry Saturday into
Sunday night, with some clouds passing through northeastern
portions of the area Saturday and Sunday. Thus, quiet weather is
expected. Temperatures should be near seasonal normals Saturday
into Saturday night, with some warm air advection bringing milder
highs for Sunday.

.LONG TERM...

Monday Through Thursday...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Models are showing a modest 500 mb ridge axis sliding east across
the region Monday into Tuesday. Strong warm air advection is
expected Monday into Monday evening, with gusty south winds. The
mixing layer will be rather shallow, with a strong inversion
around 2000 feet. Thus, held highs to the upper 40s to lower 50s
for now. It could get several degrees warmer, if mixing is more
robust and taps the 925 mb level.

A cold front then slides east through the area Tuesday. The GFS
and Canadian models are showing some light QPF in the southeastern
counties with the frontal passage later Tuesday into Tuesday
evening. The ECMWF is dry. There should be some clouds moving
through the area during this time. However, moisture is rather
shallow and limited with the frontal passage. Kept the forecast
mainly dry for Tuesday, except for low PoPs in the far southeast
counties. Temperatures Tuesday may be tricky, depending on when
the front moves through. Kept the mild temperatures from the
consensus model blends for now.

The models differ more with timing with the next low pressure
system moving northeast through the region Wednesday into
Thursday. The GFS/ECMWF take a potent 500 mb shortwave trough east
northeast from the central Plains to the southern Great Lakes
region Wednesday into Wednesday night. Another more amplified 500
mb shortwave trough then approaches southeastward toward the area
Thursday. Kept mainly low PoPs for Wednesday afternoon and
evening, when the best upward vertical motion will be over the
area. More seasonable temperatures look on track for later in the
week.

&&

.AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...

VFR conditions are expected through much of the TAF period. A
cold front will push through the area late this afternoon and
evening. We could see some MVFR CIGS around the area after about
09z Saturday, and continuing into Saturday morning as cooler air
arrives.

The main story will be the LLWS this morning, through about
17-18z Friday, then strong south to southwest surface winds this
afternoon. By 12z this morning, winds just a few thousand feet up
will be pushing 50kts, but just 10-15kts at the surface. There
isn`t a huge directional shift however.

Once we mix out later this morning, look for strong and gusty
surface winds until sunset. Then the trough moves through and
winds veer around to the west northwest this evening.

&&

.MARINE...

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through Saturday afternoon.
Look for strong south to southwest winds today, diminishing for a
time this evening, as winds veer to the west northwest. But,
winds will pick up again tonight, and remain elevated through
Saturday afternoon.

A Small Craft Advisory may be needed again late Monday afternoon
into Tuesday morning, due to brisk southerly winds ahead of
another trough of low pressure.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST Saturday for LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Davis
Saturday through Thursday...Wood



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