Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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000
FXUS63 KMKX 031552
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1052 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
PLEASANT DAY ON TRACK FOR TODAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
EVENING BRINGING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE IS MINIMAL WITH THE NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH UP TO 200 J/KG...BUT AN INVERTED V SOUNDING SUPPORTS SOME
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SCATTERED CUMULOUS AROUND 6
KFT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT WINDS TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT TAF SITES BETWEEN 3 AND 6Z WTIH TEMPORARY
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS A LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE OF THUNERSTORMS AND SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AT EASTERN TAF SITES.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
EVENING BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND
THE FRONT NORTH WINDS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADIVSORY CONDITIONS
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

LOOK FOR FULL SUN THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RESPONDING NICELY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S...INCLUDING NEAR THE
LAKE DUE TO AN OFF SHORE FLOW FOR ONCE.  A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WILL BE DIVING SOUTH ACROSS WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE SHARP TROF AXIS OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH OUR FAR NRN TIER OF COUNTIES
AROUND 00Z...THEN THE FAR SOUTHEAST BY 06Z. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS ARRIVING WITH THE
APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  THERE IS ENOUGH
CAPE...QUITE SKINNY BUT TALL...TO SUPPORT THE CHANCE OF THUNDER AS
WELL. 0F AND -20F ARE QUITE LOW...SO COULD SEE LOTS OF SMALL HAIL IN
ANY STORMS THAT GET SOME DEPTH. THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WOULD SUPPORT SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP CLOSED TROUGH PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AREA. THE MAIN
QUESTION IS WITH WHETHER OR NOT ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE 03.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL SHOW A SOUTH TO NORTH
ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS THAT APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ON A WEAK
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH. THE 03.00Z NAM DID BACK OFF ON QPF AND
ONLY SHOWS A THIN LAYER WHERE RH IS SATURATED AROUND 800MB.
THOUGHT ABOUT PULLED THE SMALL CHANCES THAT ARE IN THERE...BUT
DECIDED TO JUST LET IT RIDE FOR THE TIME BEING. TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 36-38F RANGE...SO WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME FROST THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE
WE ARE STILL IN THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP AS THE TROUGH DIGS IN THE EAST AND ALSO THE
WESTERN US. SURFACE RIDGING WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH THE WARMER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST STARTING
THURSDAY EVENING. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK WITH SOME SPOTS TOPPING OUT AROUND 80F. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY ON SATURDAY AND BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION. THE 03.00Z
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS FRONT WILL STAY PROGRESSIVE AND
PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 03-06Z
WEDNESDAY...THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM WEST TO NORTH
NORTHEAST AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.  LOOK FOR A BAND OF
SHOWERS...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.
TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE SHOWERS. SOME SMALL
HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE
STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS. WE MAY SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...BUT MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST TAF SITES OF KMKE/KUES/KENW. CIGS WOULD LIFT AFTER SUNRISE
ON WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR A SHORT TIME THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
DOWN THE LAKE THIS EVENING. STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARQUARDT
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HALBACH



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