Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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000
FXUS63 KMKX 050300
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1000 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
LITTLE TO NO CHANGES MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST...MAINLY
LOOKING AT HOW WARM IT WILL END UP BEING TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY THE
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP TO AROUND 10 KTS OR SO
UNDER MAINLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE REMOVED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR EARLY THIS EVENING AS
THE CU FIELD HAS QUICKLY DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE. JUST NOT ENOUGH
OF A FOCUS TO PROVIDE SOME SORT OF LIFT IN THE LOW LEVELS...EVEN
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL AND WILL
DROP INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT UNDER SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SPC MESO PAGE SHOWS AXIS OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER MLCAPE EXTENDING FROM SE
MN INTO CNTRL WI CLIPPING OUR NRN CWA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
VERY UNFAVORABLE WITH NON-EXISTENT 0-6KM SHEAR. THERE IS A WEAK AXIS
OF CONVERGENCE THAT IS PRIMARILY LAKE BREEZE INDUCED IN THE FAR
EAST. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH AS WELL. NOT PLANNING ON
CARRYING ANY POPS BEYOND 00Z. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERIFYING UP TO
THIS POINT QPF WISE. THE HRRR IS STILL TRYING TO DEVELOP PRECIP
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY. BEST OVERLAP OF INSTAB AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE PER SPC MESO PAGE IS MORE IN THE NE CWA...SO WILL KEEP
SOME SMALL POPS GOING UNTIL 00Z. THE REST OF THE NIGHT LOOKS QUIET
WITH A WEAK FLOW PERSISTING WITH VERY DIFFUSE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SURFACE HIGH LOOSELY CENTERED FROM IL INTO IN WILL CONTINUE A SLOW
EASTWARD DRIFT. WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND INCREASING OFF THE DECK NOT
EXPECTING FOG TO BE A PROBLEM.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

WARM SOUTHERLY TAKES HOLD WITH 925 TEMPS NUDGING UP A FEW DEGREES.
SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 80S WITH SOME LAKE COOLING AS WINDS BEND
ONSHORE. CORRIDOR OF LLJ PROGGD TO EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
NEWD INTO LAKE SUPR VCNTY. IN THE LOW LEVELS WE WILL REMAIN IN A
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC REGIME WITH ONLY A VERY WEAK/ELONGATED 500
MILLIBAR WAVE EDGING INTO THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO
DRY FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

REMAINING WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE THE QUIET
CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN WI THRU SUNDAY NIGHT.  INCREASING SOUTHERLY
BREEZES IN THE MIXING LEVEL SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD
OVERNIGHT.  OVERNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN MIDDLE 60S MOST AREAS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THREAT OF CONVECTION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.  LEANING MORE ON GFS AND ECMWF BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST AS NAM
SHOWING LARGE RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES.  HENCE CONFIDENCE REMAINS
AT MEDIUM DESPITE AGREEMENT IN OTHER GUIDANCE.

SOUTHERN PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND CANADA LONG WAVE
TROF WILL USHER A COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN WI MON AFTN AND NIGHT.  EWD
PROGRESS OF FRONT HAS SPED UP SLIGHTLY FROM 24 HOURS AGO AND WILL
EXIT SE WI SHORTLY AFTER 06Z/TUE.  INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM TAPING INTO HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE.
COLUMN PWAT INCREASES TO 1.5 TO 2 ON MONDAY AS SFC DEWPTS INCREASE
TO THE 65 TO 70 RANGE.  STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCD WITH MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
FARTHERN NORTH OVER NORTHERN WI INTO THE UP.  MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...IN THE 5-6C RANGE.  BULK SHEAR EXPECTED IN
THE 20 TO 30KT RANGE WITH 10 TO 20KT LOW LEVEL SHEAR.  TOP 5 CIPS
ANALOGS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND CWASP ALSO ON THE LOW SIDE.  STILL
SOME CONCERN THAT FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SRN WI DURING
FAVORABLE LATE AFTN/EVE HOURS...SO FOR NOW MARGINAL SEVERE WX RISK
REASONABLE.  BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND 925H TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 24C
SHOULD RESULT IN ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE SUMMER ON
MONDAY...BEFORE THE CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY.  AFTER STARTING
OUT ON THE MILD SIDE...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.  COULD BE EVEN WARMER IF DEWPOINTS REMAIN A
LITTLE COOLER.  ALSO COUNTING ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW TO MID
LEVEL WINDS TO HELP SCOUR OUT THE PERSISTENT SMOKE FROM THE CANADA
WILDFIRES.

DRIER AIR RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
LIKELY FOR TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS QUIET.  MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AFTER SOUTHERN CANADA SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF WISCONSIN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS STEERING FLOW REMAINS MOSTLY ZONAL
TO SLIGHTLY WSW THRU SATURDAY.  DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.

WEAKER MID-LEVEL WAVES TRAVERSING JUST NORTH OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WL THREATEN SOUTHERN WI WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATER
IN THE WEEK SO WL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW POPS AT TIMES FROM WED NGT
THRU SAT.  HOWEVER THREAT HAS BEEN DECREASING.  DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL START OUT BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL FOR MID-JULY BUT WARM TO NEAR
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL SET UP A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR
SUNDAY. ANY CONVERGENCE AROUND THE AREA TODAY MINIMAL WITH VERY WEAK
WIND REGIME DUE TO LITTLE OR NO PRESSURE GRADIENT. MESO MODELS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT SPOTTY DEVELOPMENT AS THE AFTN WEARS ON IN ERN
AND NRN CWA SO WILL KEEP THE GOING SMALL POPS. INLAND CU FIELD
DIMINISHES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SREF CIG/VSBY PROGS NOT SUGGESTING
ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...THOUGH MET MOS HINTING
AT SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS. WILL KEEP OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW ESP WITH
SOME UPTICK IN SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE SURFACE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBACH
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MBK



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