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000
FXUS63 KMKX 082005
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
205 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

.TONIGHT AND SUNDAY..FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE FEW TONIGHT AND SURFACE
WINDS LIGHT...WINDS AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE
INCREASING...ESPECIALLY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. THIS
WILL PROBABLY KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING QUITE AS FAR AS THEY MIGHT
UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. EVEN SO...IT WILL BE
CHILLY WITH LOWS AROUND 10 DEGREES MOST PLACES.

THE WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY LATE MORNING. WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS
AROUND 40...ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF MARCH. WILL PROBABLY
SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON.


.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

ONE 250 MB JET MAX MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT WHILE THE MID/UPPER FLOW IS MORE ZONAL ON MONDAY. STILL
SEVERAL JET MAXIMA PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS
RESULTS IN PERIODS OF UPPER DIVERGENCE. THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL RH IS
RATHER HIGH AROUND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
DECREASING...THEN INCREASING AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT 700 MB RH
IS HIGHEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT..BUT DOES NOT SATURATE. WEAK 700 MB
UPWARD MOTION DURING THIS PERIOD. EXPECT PERIODS OF MAINLY MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING RISING
TO AROUND 11 CELSIUS AROUND NOON MONDAY. 925 MB TEMPERATURES RISE
TO 8 TO 10 CELSIUS. NAM LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES APPEAR WAY TOO COLD. EVEN THE NAM MOS IS OVER 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MODEL SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE
EXPECT MILDER TEMPERATURES MONDAY WITH THE DRIER WEST FLOW AT
LOWER LEVELS.

.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MID/UPPER FLOW IS ZONAL MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AS THE 250 MB
JET MAX MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BECOMES
LOCATED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE DEPARTING JET. THERE
IS SOME WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE AND THE 700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE THE 700 MB LAYER IS
NEARLY SATURATED. THE RH LOWERS QUICKLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
FROM THE DELLS TO SHEBOYGAN.

THE NAM BRINGS AROUND 0.25 INCHES OVER AREAS SOUTHWEST OF
MADISON...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS NORTH AND EAST. THE FOND DU LAC AND
SHEBOYGAN AREAS REMAIN DRY. THICKNESS VALUES WOULD TREND TOWARD A
RAIN SNOW MIX ALONG THE ILLINOIS BORDER AND MAINLY SNOW FARTHER
NORTH.

THE GFS IS SIMILAR...BUT WITH AROUND HALF THE
PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAS ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF
PRECIPITATION...AND IS ALSO WARMER...WITH MORE OF A RAIN SNOW MIX
FROM MADISON TO MILWAUKEE AND POSSIBLY ALL RAIN NEAR THE ILLINOIS
BORDER.

.LONG TERM...

.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE UPPER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND REACHES THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. THE
12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE SIMILAR.

SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXTENDS OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON
THE GFS AND DGEX...WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRIER.

THE MAIN SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS WISCONSIN.

TEMPERATURES COOL ON WEDNESDAY.

.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE MAIN TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THURSDAY WITH A
SECOND NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY. THE GFS HAS THE TROUGH A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH.

WARM ADVECTION BEGINS THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA. THE MEX MOS IS MUCH HIGHER THAN THE MODEL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...AND WILL TREND TOWARD THE WARMER FORECAST. THE 12Z
ECMWF IS JUST A LITTLE SLOWER NOW WITH THE WARM ADVECTION...SO
WILL MODERATE THE TEMPERATURE RISE SOMEWHAT.

WEAK COLD ADVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA.

.SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE HUDSON BAY AREA THAT
EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WITH
COOL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

CLEARING WILL CONTINUE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH LATE MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR A WIDESPREAD RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE LIKELY TOMORROW...MAINLY FROM LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS THUS BEING
ISSUED FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&


.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 3 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HENTZ