483
FXUS63 KMKX 140254
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
954 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Smoky conditions aloft and near the surface from Canadian
  wildfires are expected into tonight, resulting in minor
  visibility reductions. The Air Quality Alert from the
  Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources continues across all
  of southern Wisconsin.

- There are increasing chances (30 to 60 percent) for showers
  and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night,
  with 20 to 40 percent chances lingering at times into next
  weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 954 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

The smoke in southern Wisconsin is slowly moving out this
evening. Western Wisconsin observations have sfc smoke
decreasing and elevated smoke can be seen slowly moving out on
satellite. Southwest winds and zonal flow aloft will help smoke
move out while keeping more smoke from moving in aloft. Sfc
smoke will see the largest improvement overnight while elevated
smoke lingers into Monday. The Air Quality Advisory from the
Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources remains in effect
through noon Monday.

Patterson

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 232 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Tonight through Monday night:

A southeast lake breeze may develop near the lake from Milwaukee
southward late this afternoon, with the light winds. Diurnal
cumulus clouds should linger until early evening.

High clouds will continue to slowly shift east of the area into
this evening. Areas of smoke from Canadian wildfires are
expected to continue into tonight, with the persistent northwest
flow aloft. Low level mixing into early evening should allow
for some of the smoke to mix down toward the surface, so the
scent of smoke should linger into at least this evening.

Visibility is generally in the 3 to 6 mile range, which will
lead to the hazy look to the sky into tonight, with the Air
Quality Advisory from the Wisconsin Department of Natural
Resources remaining in effect. The smoke should gradually move
out of the area and be more confined to northern Wisconsin
later tonight into Monday, as southwest winds develop and flow
aloft becomes more zonal.

There may be some fog in the Wisconsin River Valley overnight
into early Monday morning. Light southwest winds tonight will
remain so on Monday, with a southeast lake breeze from Milwaukee
southward by Monday afternoon.

There may be small chances for a shower to develop Monday
afternoon in northern parts of the area, near a confluent
boundary oriented west to east. Some CAMs are showing this
development, with others dry. Given the lack of upward vertical
motion, will leave the forecast dry for now.

Lows tonight in the lower to middle 60s, with highs Monday in
the middle 80s, with humid conditions lingering. Quiet weather
should linger into Monday night, as light winds shift south.
Lows should be in the middle to upper 60s.

Wood

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 232 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Tuesday through Sunday:

Warm and humid conditions should linger into Tuesday, as south
winds persist with highs into the middle to upper 80s. There
should be a southeast lake breeze Tuesday afternoon closer to
the lake.

Zonal flow Tuesday should become west southwest by Tuesday
night. A shortwave trough at 500 mb may shift northeast and clip
parts of southern Wisconsin Tuesday night into early Wednesday,
with some very weak warm air advection. Kept mainly 20 percent
chances for showers and a few storms during this time.

There may be better chances for showers and thunderstorms later
Wednesday into Wednesday night, as low pressure undergoes some
cyclogenesis and shifts northeast from the Central Plains into
and through southern or central Wisconsin. Warm and humid
conditions will linger. There is a fairly well-defined 500 mb
shortwave trough that accompanies the low, so there should be
decent upward vertical motion. There is ample mean layer CAPE
with modest deep layer bulk shear of 20 to 25 knots during this
time, along with increasing precipitable water values. Some
stronger storms with heavy rainfall appear possible during this
period, so something to watch as we get closer to that period.

Kept 20 to 50 percent chances for showers and storms Thursday
into Thursday night, though most of the upward vertical motion
may be southeast of the area by that time, depending on how
quickly the low and shortwave trough move out of the region.
Some heavy rainfall may occur if the system is slower to move
out, with precipitable water values remaining near 2.00 inches
at times. Temperatures will depend on the timing of the system
as well during this period.

High pressure may bring a brief quiet weather period on Friday,
with cooler temperatures. 500 mb cluster analysis suggests
generally zonal flow over the region into next weekend, with
perhaps some chances for showers and storms at times as various
systems may move through the region. Kept 20 to 30 percent PoPs
for this period for now per ensemble output. Temperatures should
remain near seasonal normal values.

Wood

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 954 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

MVFR to VFR conditions are expected through the period. High
clouds are moving out to the southeast this evening and smoke
continues to linger near the sfc and aloft. Visibility will be
around 3 to 6 SM, due to the smoke and lead to hazy skies.
Thankfully the smoke is gradually beginning to move out of the
area tonight. Smoke should remain confined to northern Wisconsin
Monday.

There is another chance for some fog to develop overnight,
mostly in river valleys. Most noticeable the Wisconsin River
Valley. Any fog that does develop will remain patchy with
visibilities around 3 SM and will burn off shortly after
sunrises.

Winds will remain light across southern Wisconsin out of the
southwest. These light winds will persist through Monday and
thus lake shore terminals (MKE, ENW, SBM) have the potential for
a lake breeze to move in Monday afternoon. Southeast winds will
be possible through the late afternoon and evening hours.

Patterson

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 232 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Modest south to southwest winds are expected to linger into
Monday, as high pressure around 30.0 inches moves across the
southern portions of the Great Lakes region. Increasing
southerly winds are expected Tuesday into Tuesday night, as a
low pressure system around 29.7 inches develops across the
Central High Plains. This low should move toward and across the
region Wednesday into Wednesday night. Winds may then shift to
the north for Thursday into Friday, as high pressure around 30.1
inches develops over the region.

Wood

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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