Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
000
FXUS64 KAMA 182314
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
614 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
As the main cut off H500 low, as of 19Z, is centered over Yuma,
AZ, it will continue to remain quasi-stationary over the
aforementioned area throughout the short term forecast period.
Some residual high clouds on the periphery of the main cyclonic
circulation, mainly confined to the far western Panhandles.
Otherwise, we should remain dry through this forecast period. With
southwesterly surface flow returning tomorrow, high temperatures
will range from the upper 60s to mid 70s, a few degrees warmer
than today.
Meccariello
&&
.LONG TERM ...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Latest 18/12 model and numerical data shows a building H500 ridge
into northern California by Wednesday afternoon. This will help to
displace the main H500 cut off low over western Arizona into the
main steering flow once again. The main system ill move east
across the Texas late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.
As it does so, lift out ahead of the main disturbance should help
to generate some showers and thunderstorms, giving all the
Panhandles at least a 20% chance, if not more. Along and east of
a line from Amarillo to Guymon, some instability as high as
1000-1200 J/kg coupled with effective shear of 20-25 kts may help
to generate some strong to a severe storm or two. With the core of
the UL low moving over portions of the Panhandles, if the shear
can support a decent updraft, 1" hail could be possible with a
secondary threat of wind gusts up to 60 mph with more robust
updrafts. Timing for thunderstorms chances would be from Wednesday
afternoon through about midnight on Thursday. There are a range of
model solutions of little to more thunderstorm activity, most
likely depending on the more pronounced H700 theta-e return
cyclonically around the closed low. Will watch trends closely.
Thursday onward through the weekend, sub 15% POPs are possible
this weekend as a deepening sinusoidal H500 pattern takes place
across the western CONUS. Will have to sort details on how
displaced is the moisture axis for rain chances. If not much rain
occurs leading up to the weekend, we could also see a return of at
least elevated fire weather conditions by the second half of the
weekend as breezy SW winds return. High temperatures Wednesday
through Sunday will remain above average.
Meccariello
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 532 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 00Z TAF period.
Skies should remain mostly clear with maybe a few high clouds.
Surface winds are looking to be out of the south less than 15 kts
through about 15Z, then picking up to 15-20 kts there after.
36
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 37 69 41 71 / 0 0 10 50
Beaver OK 35 76 36 72 / 0 0 0 50
Boise City OK 33 69 36 68 / 0 0 0 30
Borger TX 39 74 43 75 / 0 0 10 50
Boys Ranch TX 34 72 38 71 / 0 0 10 50
Canyon TX 34 69 40 71 / 0 0 10 50
Clarendon TX 37 71 43 72 / 0 0 10 50
Dalhart TX 29 69 35 69 / 0 0 10 40
Guymon OK 33 73 35 71 / 0 0 0 50
Hereford TX 32 69 38 71 / 0 0 10 50
Lipscomb TX 37 75 41 73 / 0 0 0 60
Pampa TX 38 72 44 72 / 0 0 10 60
Shamrock TX 35 73 43 73 / 0 0 10 60
Wellington TX 34 72 42 72 / 0 0 10 50
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...36