Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 011153
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
553 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FZFG EARLY THIS
MORNING ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY. VSBYS
SHOULD IMPROVE SOME LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...HOWEVER IFR
CIGS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AT KAMA AND KDHT. CIGS AT
KGUY MAY STAY JUST ABOVE IFR LEVELS DURING THE DAY...BUT IT WILL BE
RIGHT ON THE EDGE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AGAIN THIS EVENING WITH
CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO LIFR AND VSBYS TO IFR OR LOWER IN FZFG AND
POSSIBLY -FZDZ.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD SHALLOW AIRMASS RETAINS ITS HOLD ON THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES THIS MORNING.  AREAS OF FREEZING FOG EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM.  SOME SLOW MODIFICATION OF THIS AIRMASS IS
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON.

ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER TONIGHT.  WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL ACT TO KEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.  WITH NO STRONG
DYNAMICS EXPECTED TONIGHT...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION...AND HAVE CALLED FOR AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.

SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY HAVE BEEN RETAINED.  WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND THE PASSAGE OF A QUICK-MOVING VORTICITY MAXIMUM MAY
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE
MORNING AND LIGHT RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

HAVE REMOVED MONDAY NIGHT POPS DUE TO EXPECTED LOSS OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING HAS BEEN SPED UP
SLIGHTLY.  HAVE LOWERED MAXIMA SLIGHTLY IN NORTHERN SECTIONS...BUT
TUESDAY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE WARMER OWING TO EXPECTED INSOLATION.

LOW POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW HAVE BEEN KEPT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  RAPID CLEARING ALLOWS FOR WARMING TREND TO COMMENCE
THURSDAY.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...
     GRAY...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...
     RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$

08/03





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