Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 171742

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1242 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017


Mainly VFR conditions expected all terminals through the remaining
afternoon hours and through the evening. An occasional Bahamas
stream might provide VCSH for terminal KPBI through the afternoon
hours. For terminal KAPF, starting around 09z there might be some
mist/fog and occasional low stratus possible and indicated in
tempo group from 09z-12z.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1157 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2017/


High pressure remains in full control and with the exception of
adding some isolated showers in the forecast from streamers off
the Bahamas, no other changes were required.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 656 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2017/

VFR flying conditions will prevail through the TAF period ending
12z Wednesday. Generally dry weather will prevail with scattered
to broken stratocumulus in the 4-6 kft range. Winds will be
east/southeast around 10 knots this morning increasing to 10-15
knots after 14z, diminishing to less than 10 knots after 00z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 334 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2017/


SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/

Another quiet night held true across South Florida
overnight, with the last remnants of the easterly flow Bahamas
streamer showers exist as a few sprinkles over West Palm Beach
metropolitan area as of 8z. SE winds around 5 knots occurring over
much of South Florida, precluding any fog development, but some
patchy fog cant be ruled out mainly over Hendry and Glades
counties around sunrise. Otherwise, another warm morning for this
time of year. For the 2nd day in a row, yesterday, Fort Lauderdale
tied a daily record high minimum temperature with 72 degrees,
last set in 1943. Its not entirely out of the question another
record could be set today.

Less cloudiness is expected today, and Wednesday and Thursday
should be generally sunny as drier air filters in from the
southeast around the periphery of expansive low and mid-level high
pressure centered to the east. Upper levels are also dominated by
broad ridging that will remain in place this week. No rain is
expected and above normal temperatures will prevail. Winds will be
southeasterly at speeds less than 15 mph. Maxima will average
around 80 degrees with minima generally in the 60s. With lighter
winds expected tonight, there is a great potential for at least
some patchy fog, and the same is possible late Wednesday night
into early Thursday. Any fog should be confined to rural interior
areas of the region.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/
The persistent ridge that has been focus of South Florida weather
for past number of days is forecast to break down this week, as
several shortwave troughs pass across the east-central United
States. A cold front will enter north Florida Friday, bringing
thunderstorms to that region into Saturday. For South Florida, the
weather will remain relatively unchanged into Sunday. Temperatures
may boost up a few degrees across eastern areas as flow turns
southerly for the weekend.

Sunday night into Monday, models are in good agreement for 7 days
out in depicting a potent H5 lopres lifting from the lower MS
Valley into the central Appalachians. This will likely send a cold
front through South Florida during this period. Although guidance
suggests a late Sunday night early Monday frontal passage, fine-
tuning details this far out is probably not a good idea so have
broad-brushed chance of showers Sunday night and Monday across
the area, also keeping at least a slight chance for showers. As
typical of winter, best dynamics will be well north of the region,
and the timing of the frontal passage may be during less than
ideal instability diurnally. Regardless, plenty of moisture, wind
field, and at least some convergence easily warrants thunder risk
during this period.

Southeasterly winds of 10 to 15 knots can be expected for the
work-week, and will then turn southerly and possibly increase a
bit over the weekend. Seas will remain below 4 feet into Sunday. A
cold front is forecast to move across the waters Sunday night and
Monday, and this may lead to hazardous winds and seas, along with
a risk for thunderstorms.

VFR flying conditions will prevail through the TAF period ending
06z Wednesday. Outside of a spotty shower towards KPBI tonight,
dry weather is expected. The only exception to VFR conditions will
be at KAPF late tonight and into the early morning, where some
shallow ground fog will be possible. Will continue to monitor for
amendments, but confidence is not high enough to include
restrictions at this time. Winds will be out of the east southeast
around 10 knots overnight, increasing to 10-15 knots after 14z.

Moderate risk of rip currents exist along the east coast due to
residual currents from the holiday weekend and a 10 to 15 mph SE
wind. The risk will gradually wane through the week as winds
decrease in speed and turn progressively more southerly.

West Palm Beach  67  81  62  80 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  69  80  66  79 /   0   0   0   0
Miami            70  81  66  81 /   0   0   0   0
Naples           63  80  62  81 /   0   0   0   0



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