Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMFL 191812
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
112 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH GENERALLY LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH MINIMUM IMPACT
TO THE TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014/

UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE
FLOW. INCREASED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE THE
ONGOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO FURTHER UPDATES ARE EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014/

AVIATION...

VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SUBTLE EASTERLY BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP AND BECOME CONSISTENT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST COAST,
WHICH IS DIFFERENT THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS, AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REACHES THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATER TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. ON SUNDAY, A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE TO A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AND THE UPPER FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. AS A
RESULT, DEW POINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE LEADING TO WARMER NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES. STILL, CURRENT PWAT LEVELS OF AROUND ONE-HALF INCH
WILL ONLY CLIMB TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES BY SUNDAY SO CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN RAIN FREE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM (MONDAY-CHRISTMAS DAY)...
THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH THE SURFACE WAVE WILL RAPIDLY LIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AS A STRONG TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL CARVE OUT A MAJOR TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TUESDAY AND APPROACH LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL
BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH PWAT ALSO ON THE INCREASE. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY NEAR THE LAKE AND ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE MAIN DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA AND 500MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO ONLY COOL AROUND 1C SO NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. SO
WILL KEEP CHANCES OF THUNDER MINIMAL ACROSS THE AREA. FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL RUNS NOW, THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND IS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
HOLIDAY WILL BE COOL AND SUNNY.

MARINE...
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SOUTH FLORIDA
ON TUESDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE WIND VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  59  77  62  78 /  10  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  64  78  67  79 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            63  79  66  80 /  10  10  10  10
NAPLES           57  77  61  78 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71/JE
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...10/CD


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.