Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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738
FXUS62 KMFL 190815
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
415 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Short term (Today-Friday): A stationary front located just to our
south over the Florida Straits will continue to be a focus for
moisture and shower activity through Friday. However, water vapor
satellite imagery indicates drier air over central FL and over the
northern part of South FL, with somewhat moister air over the far
southern FL and along the east coast. These areas will continue
to see a chance for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
each day, with highest chances during the afternoon. Some showers
will also be possible overnight tonight, similar to last night,
for the east coast metro and far south areas. Temperatures should
be near normal values. Winds Thursday will be light to moderate
from the NE, with stronger NE-ENE winds on Friday.

Long Term (Friday night-Wednesday): High pressure over the SE US
will gradually migrate eastward to the western Atlantic over the
weekend into early next week. The pressure gradient will tighten
late Friday and strong winds will then persist through the
weekend. These winds will be ENE early in the weekend, becoming E
later in the weekend. Typical showers will be possible each day
this weekend, but excessive rainfall is not expected. The high
pressure will weaken and move farther offshore early next week in
response to a strong trough marching eastward across the US. The
trough and its associated cold front will approach South FL on
Tuesday. We can expect an increase in atmospheric moisture early
next week as winds become SE and then S as the cold front
approaches. The GFS and ECMWF both have the front clearing through
South FL by Wednesday. If this scenario comes to fruition, then
South FL could feel its first taste of fall, with some drier and
cooler air.

&&

.MARINE...
N/NE winds continue during the next few days, with speeds to 20
kts on Friday. Winds will become more easterly later in the
weekend but will remain breezy through the weekend. Seas in the
Atlantic waters will be up to 5 to 7 feet for the rest of the week
and into the first part of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Convection associated with a stalled boundary will continue to
impact the east coast terminals over the coming hours with sub-VFR
vsbys and cigs possible. Thunderstorms will be possible near the
coastal waters in the morning, pushing inland of the terminals by
afternoon. Generally northeasterly flow will prevail with gusty
variability around convection.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
With increasing NE-ENE winds later this week corresponding with
high astronomical tides, water levels along the east coast will be
near coastal flood criteria during high tide. Based on recent
observations, we have issued a Coastal Flood Advisory for Palm
Beach County in effect from this morning into Saturday. This may
need to be extended southward to include Broward and Miami-Dade
later this week if conditions warrant.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  86  76  86  79 /  40  40  40  40
Fort Lauderdale  86  77  88  80 /  40  40  40  40
Miami            88  77  88  79 /  40  40  40  40
Naples           89  74  91  75 /  20  20  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT Saturday for FLZ168.

AM...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 AM EDT this
     morning for AMZ650-670.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Friday
     for GMZ656-676.

&&


DISCUSSION...98/ABH
MARINE...98/ABH
AVIATION...02/RAG
BEACH FORECAST...98/ABH






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