Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 200045 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
745 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

The mid level disturbance is starting to move into South Florida
early this evening from the Bahama Islands bringing some isolated
to scattered showers to South Florida especially over the
southeastern portion of the area. The isolated to scattered
showers will continue through midnight before decreasing in
coverage after midnight, as the disturbance moves west northwest
away from South Florida into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico.
The latest forecast shows this trend, and no changes are plan at
this time.


Breezy easterly winds are expected to continue through night,
in excess of 10 KT, with showers diminishing aft 20/0600Z. Expect
SCT/BKN low clouds, layered between 2000-6000 FT agl, moving on
shore from out over the Atlantic. Aft around 20/1400Z east
southeast winds will increase to 15-18 KT with occasional higher
gusts. These winds should weaken slightly by Tuesday evening.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 316 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018/


A mid level disturbance over the Central Bahamas moves west
northwest and across South Florida tonight around the high
pressure over the Western Atlantic waters tonight. This will allow
for an increase in moisture over South Florida tonight leading to
a slight chance of showers over most of South Florida. The only
exception to this is over the southeastern portion of South
Florida where a chance of showers is possible this evening.

The high over the Western Atlantic waters will strengthen from 592
mbs tonight to 595 mbs late Tuesday through Wednesday. This will
allow for the easterly winds over South Florida to increase to breezy
to windy conditions for Tuesday and Wednesday. Drier weather will
also work into South Florida from the Western Atlantic into South
Florida allowing for dry conditions.

The high will then slowly weaken late this week into this weekend
while moving westward into the Florida Peninsula. This will allow
for the easterly wind flow to continue, as the winds slowly relax
over South Florida.

Another mid level disturbance is also forecast by the long range
models to move west northwest from the Atlantic waters through
the Florida Keys late this week. This will allow for a few showers
to affect the east coast metro areas late this week before going
dry across all of South Florida this weekend.

Temperatures will be running above at 5 degrees above normal for
highs and lows running about 10 to 15 degrees above normal across
South Florida this week. Highs each day will be in the lower to
mid 80s with lows in the 60s, except lower to mid 70s east coast
metro areas.

The winds will be easterly at 15 to 20 knots with the near-shore
Gulf waters at 10 to 15 knots. The only exception to this is the
Atlantic and Biscayne Bay waters where the wind speeds will be
around 20 knots tonight through Tuesday morning. The easterly
winds will continue to be at 15 to 20 knots for most of South
Florida waters for the middle to end of the week, except the near-
shore Gulf waters where the speeds will be 10 to 15 knots. This
will allow for the Atlantic seas to be 4 to 6 feet for the week,
with the Gulf seas at 4 feet or less through this week. Therefore,
a SCA will be up for the Atlantic Waters through at Tuesday
morning and an SCEC for rest of the waters. The only exception is
the near- shore Gulf waters where no headlines will be needed.

The breezy to windy easterly wind flow will allow for the likely
threat of Rip Currents along the east coast beaches of South
Florida through most of the week. Therefore, the High Risk Of Rip
Currents has been extended until Thursday evening.

West Palm Beach  73  83  74  83 /  30  10  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  75  83  76  83 /  40  10  10  10
Miami            74  84  75  84 /  40  10  10  10
Naples           68  87  69  87 /  20  10   0   0


FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172-

AM...Small Craft Advisory for winds until 10 AM EST Tuesday for


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