Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 011959
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
259 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS PUSHED INLAND...WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF PALM
BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES AND TOWARDS THE GULF
COAST. A WEAK GULF COAST SEA BREEZE HAS ALSO DEVELOPED...AND A FEW
STORMS COULD FIRE UP THIS AFTERNOON. A STREAMER WAS ALSO NOTED OFF
GRAND BAHAMA...AND A LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS WERE MOVING INTO THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. IT IS POSSIBLE THIS REACHES THE EAST
COAST NEAR WEST PALM BEACH...BUT OTHERWISE THE EAST COAST WILL
REMAIN DRY. IT WILL BE WARM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS IN
THE LOW 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. ANOTHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE INVERTED TROUGH THAT WAS ALONG OUR COAST
YESTERDAY WILL MERGE WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST OF
NORTH FLORIDA...AND WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST
TONIGHT.

850MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
MONDAY...AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION WITH
PWATS 1-1.2 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S.

MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST
FROM THE YUCATAN. HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S TO
LOW 70S WILL CONTINUE.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY...AND THEN FLATTEN OUT AND LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH/CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THE GFS STILL WANTS TO STALL THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AS IT IS MORE AGGRESSIVE BREAKING DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE.
THE ECMWF IS MORE REASONABLE WITH THE FRONT STALLING ACROSS
NORTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA. SO MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
E-SE WIND FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH DRIER AIR COMPARED TO 24
HOURS AGO. PATTERN TODAY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SEE IN THE SUMMER,
WITH SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS PLAYING A MAJOR ROLE IN CLOUD
COVER/PRECIPITATION. GULF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING BY MID AFTERNOON
WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHRA AND EVEN ISOLATED TSRA NEAR THE WEST
COAST. WENT WITH VCSH FOR KAPF AS COVERAGE OF TSRA NOT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT MENTION IN TAF AT THIS TIME. THE EAST COAST WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY WITH ANY PROLONGED CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FT. POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION TO THIS AT KPBI WHERE A STREAMER FROM GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THAT AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERALL PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH MONDAY. SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT FOG
AT KAPF 10Z-13Z, OTHERWISE FAIR AND VFR. /MOLLEDA

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS UP TO 7 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE GULF STREAM EAST OF
PALM BEACH COUNTY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15
KNOTS AND SEAS GENERALLY 4 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  81  71  82 /   0  10   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  72  81  72  79 /   0   0   0  10
MIAMI            72  83  71  82 /   0  10   0  10
NAPLES           65  83  65  85 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...59/RM



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