Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 161726
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1226 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hard freeze possible Monday morning across the area. Low
  temperatures in the lower to middle 20s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Upper trough over the northern tier of the CONUS will shift towards
the Great Lakes today, with an associated cold front sliding through
the CWA late this afternoon. About the only discernible feature will
be the veering of surface winds to more northwesterly by this
evening. Ample heating will occur in advance of the front, and
temperatures will warm well into the 60s - some 10-15 degrees above
normal. The colder air will lag behind the initial frontal boundary,
with cooler conditions advecting into the region by late tonight
into early next week. Locations tonight north of Interstate 70 may
dip down just below freezing (30-32F). A much cooler day with
readings below normal arrives on Sunday into Monday. The biggest
impact/concern in the forecast package comes Monday morning as clear
skies, continued CAA, and building high pressure will likely result
in a hard freeze across the entire region, which could pose a threat
to sensitive plants and vegetation as the very warm late winter and
early meteorological spring has yielded early vegetative growth. One
final cold night expected Tuesday AM, with sub-freezing temps
possible in some areas.

High pressure slides off to the east on Tuesday as upper ridging
builds into the region ahead of an ejecting closed low over the SW
US. Temperatures will respond, with a return to above normal
readings for Tuesday into the remainder of the work week. The
aforementioned ejecting low will also bring our next chance for
precipitation around the late Wednesday/Thursday time frame. As with
the behavior and predictability of closed systems, uncertainty to
the timing and track remain; likewise details remain unresolved
attm.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

VFR conditions are expected to persist for the duration of the TAF
period. Winds will come from the west and shift to the north later
this evening. Some gusts to the low to mid 20s may be possible today
and tomorrow with diurnal mixing.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Collier


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