Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 221129
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
529 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 256 AM CST WED FEB 22 2017

A cutoff upper-level low is slowly crossing over the Gulf coast and
moisture associated with this system has been slow to exit
central and southeastern Missouri through early Wednesday morning.
As a result, areas of patchy fog are noted across the
southeastern CWA. Dense fog will likely be limited to areas across
eastern and southern Missouri, where higher dewpoints associated
with lingering low level moisture are observed.

Though dry conditions are expected today with zonal flow aloft
building north of the cutoff low, a couple of concerns are
anticipated for Wednesday. The first is in the form of elevated fire
weather danger this afternoon as southwesterly flow and increased
mixing along a frontal boundary further decreases dewpoints by the
afternoon. Relative humidity values during this time will drop to
approximately 25 percent across northeastern Kansas and western
Missouri. For additional thoughts concerning this potential, see
Fire Weather discussion below. The other concern for today will be
with the likelihood of record-breaking temperatures as warm
advection continues underneath mostly clear skies. Temperatures
will approach the 80 degree mark for areas south of the Missouri
River and the mid 70s for areas north. A weak cold front will push
through northwestern Missouri this afternoon as a surface low
develops well to the north ahead of a shortwave crossing through
the Northern Plains. While the frontal boundary will bring little
in the way of cooling temperatures until Wednesday night, it will
assist with enhancing fire weather danger for northeastern Kansas
and northwestern Missouri with deeper mixing and slightly
heightened wind speeds along the boundary. The frontal boundary
will stall across northern Missouri as a lee-side surface low
drapes a warm front in the same vicinity by Thursday afternoon.
Models have consistently advertised afternoon rain showers and
possible elevated convection north of this boundary. Severe
weather potential looks to be limited by a capped environment,
though this trend will still need to be monitored in subsequent
forecasts. For now, areas north of I-70 are most favored for
Thursday afternoon and evening precipitation. Additional precip is
possible for this area along the wrap around region of the
exiting surface low. While light snow is possible late Friday
night, minor accumulations, if any, will be limited to far
northern Missouri.

Though the late week storm system will be limited with regard to
precipitation for most areas, a near-seasonal cooling trend is
expected for all areas in the wake of this system. Sub-freezing
overnight lows will return to the area beginning Friday night
through Sunday night with afternoon highs generally rising into
the 40s and 50s until the early work week approaches. Additional
widespread precipitation chances will return next week, along with
a brief period of wintry precipitation. Accumulations are not
anticipated before this transitions to liquid rain as the
relatively active pattern persists through the mid- week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 524 AM CST WED FEB 22 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with the only
concern being an increase in winds ahead of a weak cold front
this afternoon. This boundary will ultimately turn southwesterly
winds out of the northeast by Thursday morning.


&&

.Fire Weather...
Issued at 256 AM CST WED FEB 22 2017

Dry southwesterly flow will bring very warm temperatures to the
area today as relative humidity values decrease to 25 to 30
percent this afternoon. Criteria-level RH values will be brief,
and coupled with sustained wind speeds of only 10 to 15 mph during
this time, have held off on any headlines for today. Regardless,
extremely dry surface fuels in combination with ample sunshine and
low humidity will lend to elevated fire weather danger today.
Outdoor burning is therefore strongly discouraged. Conditions will
improve tomorrow as low level moisture returns to the area.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Welsh
Fire Weather...Welsh



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