Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 111132
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
532 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

A backdoor cold front which slid through the region late last
evening and resultant northeast surface flow will continue to draw
colder air into the region today, holding high temperatures in the
20s and 30s nearly CWA-wide. Stratus over northern portions of the
forecast area has struggled to spread southwestward overnight, and
may allow for a few pockets of sunshine across east central KS and
west central MO, possibly allowing temperatures to reach the lower
40s in those areas this afternoon. Winds will weaken progressively
as high pressure drifts across northern Missouri this afternoon and
into the Mississippi River valley this evening, taking the edge off
the slightly below normal temperatures for the late afternoon and
evening hours.

The main focus for this evening and tonight will be yet another
swath of pacific moisture, accompanying an upper jet streak and its
associated midlevel wave. This setup looks extremely similar to
yesterday`s light snow event, will spread across the same areas as
yesterday, and snow accumulations are expected to total and inch or
less. Accumulating snow will be most likely between 6 PM and 12 AM,
generally along and east of a line from Bethany to Boonville.

Breezy north northwest winds are expected behind this system, and
will hold down Friday temperatures more than previously anticipated,
especially during the afternoon when cold air advection will be the
strongest. Surface high pressure will then build into the area that
night into Saturday morning, bringing lows into the single digits
across the northern half of the forecast area, and possibly even to
below zero near the IA border.

Wintry precipitation is still possible Sunday as an upper trough
dips into the central U.S., but model agreement is still somewhat
poor in how far south the trough will dig and how it will manifest
at the surface. The EC continues to split regions of precipitation
into 1) the northern, more clipper-like snow band, and 2) a swath of
light to moderate rain across the Arklatex region; while the GFS
keeps a more cohesive swath of precipitation along and ahead of the
surface cold front, which would be mainly snow in our forecast area.
It`s worth noting that the EC only generates precipitation for the
northeast CWA with the clipper portion of the system, and maintains
a dry forecast for the remainder; while the GFS would indicate at
least some precipitation for the length of the forecast area. As a
result, have kept PoPs below 50% and have not completely bitten on a
precipitation type for anywhere except northeast MO.

Much warmer temperatures are still expected for next week, as an
upper ridge center itself across the CONUS and warm air surges up
ahead of a deep low that will eventually trek across the U.S./Canada
border the following weekend. Highs could reach the mid to even
upper 60s by next Thursday; after which temperatures will depend on
how quickly that aforementioned system drags its cold front through
the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 532 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Stratus currently over southeast NE and northeast KS will push
southeast, possibly impacting TAF sites before 15z; however, the
stratus has struggled to hold together this morning, and may be
broken to even scattered by the time it arrives in the KC area.
The lowest deck of stratus will scatter out by mid-morning, leaving
the area VFR for the remainder of the day. Winds will be light
throughout the TAF period, veering from northeast this morning to
southeast by early evening.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin



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