Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43
000
FXUS63 KEAX 190715
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
215 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy conditions this morning, followed by well-above normal
  afternoon temperatures in the middle 60s to lower 70s.

- Increasing chances of widespread moderate rainfall Sunday into
  Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

Today: Temperatures early this morning were generally at or below
freezing across the area, minus the immediate core of the KC Metro.
Look for temperatures to hold steady or gradually creep upward prior
to sunrise as southwesterly winds increase and some mixing occurs.
This should generally minimize any hard freezing concerns for the
western half of the CWA. A spectacular spring day is appropriately
timed for the official first calendar day of spring (the equinox
occurs during the late evening). Southwest winds will peak by mid-
morning, with some gusts upwards of 30-35 mph, before relaxing
during the afternoon hours. H85 thermal axis noses into the area,
with temperatures rapidly warming into the middle 60s to lower 70s.
Relative humidity values will fall into the 25-30 percent range, but
fortunately the strong winds are offset, and with much weaker wind
speeds, the overall fire weather conditions will be somewhat
mitigated. Still, any fire occurring over cured fuels could be
problematic.

By Wednesday, a weak cold front sags southward to the KS/OK and
MO/AR border, with northeast winds becoming dominant. While the
airmass immediately behind the frontal zone is not particularity
cool, highs will be some 10-15 colder than today - closer to
climatological normals.

Rain chances on Thursday have largely been removed as a paltry
setup appears to take shape, with the focus splitting the CWA to the
north and south. Instead we may need to wait until Friday for a
quick-moving shortwave trough dropping ESE from the Black Hills
increases a period of mid-level ascent and an associated cold front,
generating an area of rain for most of the area. In reality, the
best chance for meaningful rainfall should arrive Sunday/Monday as a
highly-amplified longwave trough gradually emerges into the Plains.
While the details/timing of the system will need to be worked out,
this is the type of system that could quite easily provide 1"+ of
rainfall to the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period. Southerly winds will
become gusty prior to or around sunrise, with speeds relaxing by
early afternoon and veering to northwesterly.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.