Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 012338
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
538 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

Light snow continues this afternoon generally near and north of the
Missouri River...and will gradually taper off from west to east
through the evening. Any additional accumulation should be confined
to areas near and north of the US 36 corridor and east of I-35 where
up to another inch of snow may fall. The bigger issue will be gusty
winds to 40 mph which is causing substantial blowing snow over far
northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri which will spread into much
of north central and northeast Missouri over the next few hours.
Visibilities could drop as low as a half mile across these locations,
and could even see near-blizzard conditions particularly in wide open
areas across northern Missouri and extreme northeast Kansas. Will
therefore keep the current advisories and warnings in place for at
least a few more hours.

Winds will quickly die down later this evening with high pressure
building in from the northwest. This will allow temperatures to
plummet into the single digits with sub-zero readings likely over far
northwest Missouri where winds will be lighter and skies will clear
quicker. Wind chill values could approach -15 across far northwest MO
overnight.

Light southerly flow will return to the area on Monday but
temperatures will struggle to rise out of the teens across the
deepest snow pack in northern MO and 20s elsewhere. Southerly flow
will increase Monday night into Tuesday so that temperatures
overnight will only fall a few degrees...rising into the 40s on
Tuesday across the southern half of the area. Lowered Tuesday`s highs
quite a bit across the northern half where a dense snow pack will be
in place. Highs across this region may not make it out of the
lower/mid 30s.

Another strong front will slide through the region on Wednesday with
temperatures falling into the 20s through the day. Confidence is
increasing on a band of snow sweeping through the region behind the
front Wednesday afternoon in response to rather deep post-frontal
frontogenesis. This activity could drop an inch or two of snow across
some locations especially given the cold airmass behind the front.
Unfortunately models are not agreeing on the location of this band,
although the general trend has been to shift north into northern
Missouri and Iowa. This could easily shift back south, so kept a
broad chance PoPs across the entire CWA for now.

Another frigid night is in store Wednesday night with sub-zero
readings expected north of the Missouri River. Wind chill values
could dip below -15 especially across far northern MO and KS. Will
finally see warmer temperatures returning for the end of the week
with a large upper ridge building in from the west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 525 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

Light snow and blowing snow continues to impact the region and all
four terminals this evening but should be tapering off between
03-04Z. The blustery NW winds will also begin to subside as the
night progresses and surface high pressure moves in from the west
overnight. Until then however, look for a range of MVFR to LIFR
conditions to impact the terminals as these snow bands and winds
drive the visibilities down. Ceilings will rise tonight but could
remain within the MVFR category until closer to dawn on Monday.
Skies are expected to clear out tomorrow with a mid deck building
back in tomorrow afternoon but VFR is expected to prevail.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 PM CST this evening FOR KSZ025-
     102.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 PM CST this evening FOR MOZ001-
     011>013-020>023-028>033.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 9 PM CST this evening FOR MOZ002>008-
     014>017-024-025.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...lg






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