Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 292102
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
402 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 400 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

One more nice day with highs in the low to mid 80s before the
weather makes a significant change in its pattern. Surface ridging
will continue to build over us through tomorrow morning as a large
closed low begins to cross the Rocky Mountains. This low will begin
to open as it swings out onto the High Plains and will help nudge
the ridge eastward. The now open trough will take a hard turn
northward and the associated cold front will essentially stall
across the plains. Gusty southerly winds will help keep the
temperature mild and will also help to advect higher dewpoints ahead
of the front. Showers and thunderstorms will develop across central
KS and NE by early tomorrow afternoon and will move into NW MO by
late Tuesday afternoon. This activity is expected to spread into
eastern KS and western MO Tuesday night.

Storm chances increase Wednesday as a secondary trough begins to
impact the Central Plains. The surface low across SW KS will deepen
Wednesday with the stalled front extending through central KS and
northward through central NE. Modest CAPE values and increasing wind
sheer across eastern KS will be supportive of severe thunderstorms
developing by early afternoon. Current concerns will be how early
morning precipitation will affect the development of afternoon
activity. If the atmosphere can recover, expect focus to remain
across eastern KS and western MO. Main concerns will be large hail
with the potential for some damaging winds as well. While the risk
for tornadoes is low, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out...though
the greatest risk is expected to remain east of the CWA. Heavy
rainfall will also pose a risk with PWAT values of 1.00 to 1.50
inches. Models start to disagree on timing of this secondary trough
as it ejects out onto the plains overnight Wednesday. The EC tends
to bring it out a bit faster then the GFS, which would have an
impact on how fast the cold front will move across the region. If
the GFS proves to be the winner with the slower progression,
Thursday could prove to be another severe weather day across southern
portions of the CWA.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

Showers and thunderstorms will continue Thursday along and ahead of
the southeastward-moving surface cold front. MUCAPE values may reach
1000-2000 J/kg or possibly higher in areas that briefly clear ahead
of the front on Thursday morning, and will combine with deep layer
shear values as high as 45-50 kts to support another round of strong
to potentially severe storms. The highest instability and best shear
will occur across the southern and especially southeastern CWA as a
secondary surface low lifts northeast and locally backs surface flow
to the east northeast, likely focusing the severe threat south of
I-70. The primary limiting factor will be any ongoing precipitation
during the morning and early afternoon hours, and how early in the
day the cold front passes through the region.

Precipitation will end by late Thursday night as the front sweeps
out of the region, and a second upper-low pushing southeast into the
existing upper trough will help usher in fall-like temperatures to
the eastern Plains and Midwest for Friday through the weekend. The
coldest air should skirt to the east, but highs in the 60s and lows
in the 40s are still expected Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will
begin to gradually warm Sunday through the end of the period as the
upper trough pushes off to the east, allowing southerly flow to
return and northwest flow aloft to weaken.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

VFR conditions and light winds will prevail through the remainder of
the afternoon. Scattered cu will develop across the region and
quickly clear off overnight. Once again fog may be possible early
tomorrow morning at one or more of the terminals. For now have left
it out of TAF and will let next shift evaluate. Southerly winds will
begin to increase around 15Z tomorrow morning ahead of a cold front
moving towards the region.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PMM
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...PMM





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