Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 282350

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
550 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015

Issued at 258 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015

The main challenge over the next few periods continues to be the
potential for freezing rain/freezing drizzle and the associated
impacts to roads/travel.

Water vapor imagery continues to show the Rex block over the
Intermountain West with persistent southwesterly flow feeding
moisture into the area from Pacific. At the surface, temperatures
continue to remain nearly steady from where they were yesterday,
with the freezing line waffling around roughly the I-35 corridor.
Radar shows precipitation continuing to expand over Kansas and track
to the east-northeast into the forecast area. Temperatures are
expected to fall off several degrees due to diurnal cooling and with
precipitation continuing to spread eastward, freezing rain/freezing
drizzle will intermittently continue across much of the northwestern
portions of the forecast area. With a bit more of a northeasterly
push than in previous rounds of precipitation, have expanded the
freezing rain advisory north and east to capture this trend. Have
also taken the advisory out until 6 am tomorrow morning. It`s around
this time that either precipitation should be diminishing and/or
temperatures should be warming to near or above freezing. Additional
ice amounts look to range from a few hundredths of an inch to about
a tenth of an inch in northern Missouri. This isn`t a whole lot but
it will be enough to cause hazardous travel conditions.

There won`t be much of a reprieve from wintry weather, especially
for those folks across far northern Missouri. The aforementioned Rex
block looks to finally break down, or at least the upper low portion
begins to move eastward into the Plains. With the low expected to
track to our north, or at least over far northern Missouri, warm
advection should warm surface temperatures up enough to keep
precipitation in the liquid form. However, for northern Missouri,
where temperatures will be colder and slower to warm, a period of
potentially moderate freezing rain is possible late tomorrow night.
Right now it looks like icing amounts could be in the tenth to two
tenths of an inch range for our northern most counties in Missouri
and extreme northeastern Kansas. By midday Monday, the whole
forecast area should be changed over to rain due to the warm
advection. Then by Monday night, as the upper system is deepening to
our north, colder air will move back across the forecast area in the
wake of a cold front. While this will be associated with the
subsidence region of the storm, there may be enough moisture wrap
around the system to produce light snow across northern Missouri. At
this time, amounts look to be less than inch.

The remainder of the forecast, Wednesday onward, looks to quiet as
drier high pressure builds into/through the region. With the surface
high to our south and east by late in the week, and upper ridging
expanding into the center of the country, temperatures should begin
to warm back into the 50s by Friday and Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015

Extensive area of IFR ceilings going nowhere overnight and likely
lasting well into Sunday. Band of light freezing rain will affect
northwest MO and northeast KS this evening with minor ice
accumulations. Could see some patchy light freezing drizzle over east
central KS and west central MO later this evening. An area of rain
and freezing rain is expected to spread northeast and across eastern
KS and west central/northwest MO towards daybreak and linger through
most of the day. Any location that is subfreezing should see
temperatures rise to and above freezing by mid/late Sunday morning.


.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freezing Rain Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for KSZ025-057-060-

MO...Freezing Rain Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for MOZ001>006-



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