Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 021717

1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2015

Issued at 423 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

After an evening of severe weather it looks like much of the rest of
the day should be rather quite. The storms that bubbled up in Kansas
City, and points east along Highway 50, eventually put down enough
rain and cool air to force an effective frontal boundary into
southern Missouri overnight. Aloft, a shortwave trough is noted in
the northwest flow, which helped kick off the convection Wednesday
evening; but this trough will continue to slide pass the Plains
States this morning leaving little chance for any storms to
redevelop locally through sunrise and/or much of the morning hours
of today as the moisture transport on the associated low level jet
settles south with the boundary. However, we will need to continue
to watch for any new development in the northwest flow later today
as another larger shortwave trough is noted dropping into the
Dakotas from Canada. The dynamics of this larger trough look to push
the focus for any strong storm development to the west of our
forecast area this afternoon, through central Kansas, but the better
potential for severe storms will be across far southern Kansas into
far southern Missouri where the boundary from the overnight storms
should be residing. Additionally, surface conditions will be rather
stable locally today as the region will be rather cool as the frontal
boundary settles into south, allowing for lovely afternoon highs in
the 70s to low 80s. Add this all together, and the the idea is that
if any storms can get going across northwest Missouri --and that`s a
big if-- they should be rather scattered in nature and not organized,
thus resulting in little to no severe threat with the afternoon
storms. Otherwise for today, will cancel the flash flood watch as it
expires in a few hours and there will be no storms developing in the
watch area through the morning.

Looking beyond today, conditions are looking up for the start of the
holiday weekend. Friday and Saturday both may miss out on any stormy
weather as the larger trough noted dropping into the Dakotas is
expected to ultimately shove the frontal boundary in southern
Missouri even farther south taking convection south with it Friday
and Saturday. This leaves our area watching for storm inducing warm
air advection as the large Dakota trough is followed by a shortwave
ridge across the Central Plains. Currently, Friday looks to have a
slightly better chance of storms, especially across areas from east
central Kansas into central Missouri, but even those chances look low
at this time. This leaves Saturday with only slight chance POPs, and
those look to sink south Saturday evening.

Late in the weekend and into next work week...the general toughing
to our east will fill in allowing the local flow across the northern
and central Plains to go zonal. This will allow warmer, near normal,
temperatures to move back in for Sunday and Monday. Eventually a
large synoptic scale trough passing through the Canadian Plains will
drive a cold front south into the American Plains, which will likely
reach northwest Missouri late Monday night. The activity expected Monday
night into Tuesday, as the front moves through, looks to be our next
best chance at organized storms with any potential for severe
weather. With the frontal passage expected by Tuesday morning,
temperatures for the middle of next work week should drop below
normal with highs in the 70s to 80s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

For the afternoon, a line of showers is approaching from the
northwest and should arrive near 20Z. Upstream observations show
ceiling heights within this activity between IFR and MVFR, so have
held on to MVFR ceilings through the afternoon hours. Will see
improving conditions after sunset, though additional reduced
conditions are expected overnight as easterly winds persist with
lingering surface moisture.




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