Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 220844

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
344 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Issued at 342 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2016

Very little change to the forecast reasoning during this package. A
pleasant fall day is in the works today as southerly winds will
continue to help bring in warmer readings. H85 temps increase
roughly 11C during a 24 hour period today, with afternoon readings
in the upper 60s to lower 70s expected under mostly sunny skies.
Surface moisture will also increase, with dewpoints returning to the
50s. The warm weather continues into Sunday, with maximum readings a
couple degrees warmer. The only notable difference will be a surface
cold front projected to move through the forecast area during the
afternoon hours, becoming stationary just south of the CWA by Monday
morning. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected on Monday as high
pressure building over the western Great Lakes influences our

The frontal boundary will lift back north of the area Monday night
into Tuesday morning as a warm front in response to pressure falls
with an approaching upper wave, returning warmth and moisture back
into the region. Models continue to be consistent in bringing in the
upper wave and associated cold front into the Central Plains on
Tuesday. Sufficient forcing, instability, and shear will exist for
thunderstorms to develop along the cold front, west of the forecast
area. The timing of the cold frontal passage for the CWA is around
an instability minimum, likely placing the greatest threat of strong
to severe weather west of the forecast area. Dry weather follows in
behind the front on Wednesday, but temperatures will only slightly
cooler thanks in part to the Pacific maritime origin of the upper
wave, with overall readings still hovering above normal.


.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1039 PM CDT FRI OCT 21 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with persistent
southerly to southwesterly winds through Saturday evening. Marginal
low level wind shear may become a factor early Saturday morning as
2kft winds approach 30kts out of the southwest. Wind shear values
near 25kts preclude the mention in the forecast, though there remains
potential for marginal shear given a 40 degree directional
differential coupled with near-criteria speed shear.




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