Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 210909
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
309 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 309 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

The main concern this morning is the same issue that has plagued us
the past 3 mornings...dense fog. This fog will not be as persistent
as in past days as a warm front will lift across the area this
morning ushering in stronger southwesterly winds. Stratus that does
develop will be shallow and should burn off quickly by late morning
and the sun will grace us with its presences. temperatures will
range from the low 60s across the sun to near 50 across the north
where stratus and fog may be a bit slower to burn off. Tonight, a
upper level system that had been progged to move well to our south
has trended north in recent model runs. This will allow
precipitation to trend further north as well with areas south of a
Kirksville to Kansas City line having a chance to receive showers
Saturday night into Sunday morning. This upper level system will
push east of the area by Sunday afternoon with highs in the 40s
expected.

Upstream ridging will build over the central CONUS on Monday in
response to a upper level trough digging down the West Coast. This
will allow temperatures to rise into the mid 40s to near 50. Tuesday
the aforementioned West Coast trough will move into the eastern
Rockies forcing a cold front into the eastern Plains by Tuesday
afternoon. Temperatures across the forecast area will range from the
upper 40s to near 60 ahead of this front. Showers are expected to
move into the area late in the day. Tuesday night both the EC and
GFS depict a surface low tracking along the MO/IA border. A cold
front associated with this low will move through the CWA Tuesday
night. Strong cold air advection behind this cold front will chance
rain over to snow late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning before
coming to an end. Highs behind the front on Wednesday will be
seasonable with highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Upper level
troughing is then expect to persist over the region through the rest
of the work week keeping temperatures cool with highs in the lower
30s to near 40


&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1057 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2017

Currently there is large area of IFR and LIFR ceilings and
visibility from STJ up to the Iowa border with some patchy areas
of fog forming up south of that location. Clouds are expected to
advect north of the region leaving clear skies over the area
currently seeing VFR conditions. This will set up a scenario of
fog forming up towards the sunrise timeframe. Fog is expected to
start forming around 08Z with the max impacts of IFR visibility
and possible ceilings being from 13-17Z at MCI. This fog bank is
expected to clear out quicker that it has the last few days from
the south to north with VFR conditions expected by 18Z for all
locations.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for KSZ025-057-
     102>105.

MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-028>032-037>039-043-044.

&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...Barham/Leighton



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