Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 211107
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
607 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 312 AM CDT FRI JUL 21 2017

We`ve got a few more days to go to get through this heat wave.
Both Friday and Saturday will be very hot and humid with highs
pushing 100 in the urban corridor each day. Deeper mixing though
suggest that maybe dewpoints will be a few degrees lower today.
But that is offset some by the increase in air temperatures by
several degrees. The end result is still a heat index in the 105
to 110 range. Saturday presents a little more challenging forecast
for northern MO however. A front will be moving into the area
with it likely draped across the northern third of the forecast
area by Saturday afternoon. There will likely be decent
compressional warming along and just ahead of the front, helping
temperatures spike into the upper 90s to around 100. The airmass
behind this first front isn`t much different though. So it`s
likely the northern half of the forecast area will continue to see
heat index values around or exceeding 105.

This front will also bring with it a chance for showers and
thunderstorms as it pushes through. Sunday will be cooler as highs
get back to more seasonal levels in the upper 80s and lower 90s.
Models suggest a secondary cold front will move into the area Sunday
evening/overnight. Models are generally dry during the frontal
passage but have added some low PoPs as it seems there is at least a
small chance for additional showers and storms with this secondary
frontal passage. The air mass behind this secondary front is more
noticeably cooler and drier and highs Monday and Tuesday will be much
more tolerable than the last few days through Saturday. Dewpoints
in the mid 60s will be far more comfortable than the mid to upper
70 degree dewpoints we`ve been subjected too recently with this
current air mass.

For the later half of next week, highs will likely climb back into
the low to middle 90s as the surface flow returns to the
south/southwest. But it looks like the hottest air will remain west
of the area and the 500mb ridge is weaker with heights about 30 to
60 dm lower compared to the current ridge influencing the area.
The flattened, weaker ridge may also enable convective systems to
move into the area, especially late in the week when the
combination of the upper jet and the low level jet get closer to
the region.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 606 AM CDT FRI JUL 21 2017

VFR conditions expected through the period. Only a few high level
clouds through the morning hours with a few high-based diurnal
clouds this afternoon. Winds increase this afternoon but will
remain from the south/southwest.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-057-
     060-102>105.

MO...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...CDB



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