Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 260839
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
339 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 337 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

Widespread showers and thunderstorms continue to develop and spread
across much of the forecast area this morning. Upstream convection
should ensure several more hours of precipitation. Will continue to
closely monitor flash flood potential, although robust convection
has been limited over the same areas. Dense rainfall network over
the KC Metro shows rainfall ranging from just a few hundredths to
1.60 inches over a 3-hour period. The highest amounts remain still
shy of flash flood guidance, but continued duration will increase
threat of localized flash flooding this morning. Otherwise local
streams and rivers are just now responding to recent rainfall, and
will closely monitor river flooding potential. This activity should
gradually lift to the north and weaken by mid to late morning, with
an overall lull for the forecast area by midday. Thereafter, another
round of thunderstorms should develop by early to mid afternoon
along and north of the surface front that will gradually lift north
from its current position. This places areas along and north of the
Interstate 70 corridor within the highest potential for additional
thunderstorms later today. The active weather pattern looks to
continue through early next week with continued chances for showers
and thunderstorms, although dry periods will certainly be present.
Predictability remains challenging to identify highest chances for
thunderstorms as subtle disturbances and mesoscale features remain
unresolvable at this time scale.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

Convection will gradually expand northward into terminals overnight
with low end VFR ceilings generally expected. Lull in thunderstorms
possible by mid-morning with another round during the mid/late
afternoon.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Flash Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ057-060-
     103>105.

MO...Flash Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for MOZ028>030-
     037-038-043-044-053-054.

&&

$$

Update...MJ
Discussion...Blair
Aviation...Blair



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