Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 241713
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1213 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 305 AM CDT SUN SEP 24 2017

Unseasonably warm conditions and a potential for a few isolated
showers/storms return this afternoon as boundary layer mixing
nearly eliminates the elevated mixed layer. Instability is meager
throughout the CWA but is highest in a corridor through central
MO; so have introduced broad slight chance PoPs this afternoon
east of the KC metro and I-35 corridor. Showers and storms in
western and central NE & KS will push near the far northwest
corner of the CWA tonight from the west northwest, but will
likely begin to dissipate before reaching far northwest MO.

Precipitation chances begin to increase on Monday; although the
instability profile will remain similar to the previous few days,
increasing upper-level support from the eastward-edging upper jet
will help support isolated to scattered afternoon convection over
the forecast area. Any instability-driven warm sector storms will
dissipate after sunset, leaving a lull in precipitation chances
during the evening. Storms will then begin to increase in coverage
and probability as a surface cold front approaches the area on
Tuesday, and will be highest from late morning through afternoon
as the front passes through the region. Its parent upper trough
will separate to the northeast and thus decrease precipitation
chances as the front continues to the south and east, so the
highest potential for storms will be in the northwest quadrant
of the CWA on Tuesday, with diminishing chances to the south and
east. Severe weather chances continue to look low due to un-
impressive instability and deep layer shear less than 25 kts along
and ahead of the front, and heavy rain potential seems limited to
northwest MO where multiple rounds of precipitation is more
plausible.

Cooler conditions will follow behind the front, but will only
knock temperatures back to their seasonal averages. The earnest
push of colder air will hold off until the weekend, when a second
upper trough dives into the Great Lakes region and ushers 850 hPa
temperatures in the 2-5 degree range into the eastern Plains in
the ECMWF solution. Below zero 850 hPa temperatures may sneak as
far south as the IA/MO border as surface high pressure settles
over northwest MO, possibly resulting in low temperatures in the
low 40s across northern Missouri Saturday morning. However, the
GFS and Canadian models previously agreed with this chilly EC
solution and have now backed off on the push of cold air this
weekend, so will not commit fully to the potential for below-
normal temperatures at this time.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT SUN SEP 24 2017

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period with
surface winds remaining steady out of the south southeast between
5-10 kts. By Monday morning, mid to upper level cloud cover will
build ahead of the next storm system, though precipitation should
hold off until Monday afternoon at the earliest, with chances
increasing by Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...Welsh



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