Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 221143
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
543 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 426 AM CST THU FEB 22 2018

The wintry precipitation continues this morning across much of the
forecast area, with freezing rain and some wintry mix being
reported south of HWY 36 and snow/sleet north of HWY 36. Those
north of HWY 36 should see a change over to freezing rain near
dawn as cloud ice introduction decreases. The precipitation will
continue through the morning hours before lifting north. Between a
tenth and two tenths of an inch of ice is expected. A short break
in the precipitation is then expected across much of the forecast
area late morning through early afternoon, but can`t rule out
some patchy drizzle/freezing drizzle. Temperatures are expected to
warm more than yesterday, but there is some uncertainty to how
warm we get. In general, models bring those in central MO to the
low 40s, with areas west reaching the mid 30s. While it is not
totally out of the realm of possibilities, it doesn`t seem likely
due to the easterly surface wind, cloud cover, and the
ice/snow/sleet accumulations. Therefore, have cooled temperatures
during the day today a few degrees. With that said, our southern
third of counties could still see a change over to rain late this
morning before the precipitation moves out.

A second round of precipitation, if you will, is expected to move
north into the area later this afternoon, but by the time this
occurs, most of the forecast area temperatures should be above
freezing, with the exception of our northwest corner and northern
tier of counties. In these areas, freezing rain will be the
primary precip type, but temperatures will actually continue to
increase for the first part of the night due to WAA, so some
liquid rain will eventually start to mix in. With the expected
continuation of freezing rain in these areas, the Winter Weather
Advisory now goes until midnight Friday morning. The
precipitation should exit the area early Friday morning.

This weekend, the upper level trough that is currently over the
Pacific Northwest will move through the Plains providing upper-level
support for more precipitation. At the surface, a lee-side trough
will take shape and move a warm front and then a cold front
through the area. While there are a few differences between the
NAM, GFS, and ECMWF, they all show this system having strong
dynamics with the upper-level trough taking on a negative tilt as
it passes overhead. This and the robust surface low bringing
ample moisture and instability could lead to storm development,
and potentially strong storm development. The system is scheduled
to move out of the area Sunday morning, with high pressure moving
in behind. The high pressure should keep us dry for the early part
of next week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 543 PM CST THU FEB 22 2018

The area is going to be pretty socked in for most of the day, with
IFR and LIFR conditions expected. Additionally, wintry
precipitation will continue moving through this morning, in the
form of freezing rain for most of the area, with some snow/sleet
in far northwestern MO. This round of precip will continue
through late morning, then we should experience a short break,
before another round moves in later this afternoon. By this time,
temperatures should have increased above freezing for most of the
area, so rain is expected. In northwest MO and across far northern
MO, though, freezing rain/drizzle, should be the primary precip
type, with some rain mixing in as the night continues. Ceilings
should lift a little in some areas with the break in the
precipitation, but tonight widespread LIFR ceilings are expected
as a shortwave, weak surface low, and precipitation push through.
Conditions should start to slowly get better at the tail-end of
the TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for KSZ057-060-
     103>105.

     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for KSZ025-
     102.

MO...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for MOZ017-021>025-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for
     MOZ001>008-011>016-020.

&&

$$

Discussion...Grana
Aviation...Grana



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