Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 222320
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
620 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 128 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2017

This is the last day of rather warm temperatures as a strong cold
front will move in tonight. Before that occurs there is a
diurnally driven low cloud deck covering the southern half of the
CWA. This may continue to expand northward due to southerly low-
level moisture advection associated with TD Cindy. The clouds have
helped temper the temperatures in these areas and the clouds
should mix out near sunset.

The front is progged to move quickly across the region later
tonight. Along the front scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop. A few may be strong, but not expecting widespread
coverage. The better chances to receive rain will be across north
central/northeast MO. The activity should clear the CWA shortly
after sunrise. The most noticeable result will be a cooler and
less humid airmass. Very cool temperatures, by late June measures,
are in-store for the weekend and the start of next week with
highs in the 70s.

Looking past Monday, there are no clear signals for widespread precip
until mid/late week. Temps will slowly modify to near normal (mid-
80s).

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2017

The main impact for this period will be a line of showers with
embedded thunderstorms that will push through just after midnight
behind an approaching cold front. Currently VCTS has been used to
show the thunderstorm threat but this can be upgraded as
confidence improves on timing. The current TAF has VFR conditions
but multiple forecast models are indicated a period of MVFR and
potential IFR ceilings right along the backside of the frontal
boundary as it passes. Currently no lower ceilings have developed
along the boundary and with this uncertainty the MVFR ceilings
have been left out for now. The low clouds should clear out
quickly in the early morning with a dry northerly flow in place by
the end of the TAFs.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Pietrycha
Aviation...Barham



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