Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 220954

354 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Issued at 354 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Water vapor imagery this morning shows us a rather flat progressive
pattern in place across the Nation with a notable shortwave trough
transiting east across northern Mexico on its way into southern
Texas. This helped keep a nice moisture plume advecting across
eastern Kansas and Missouri yesterday, hence the cloudy drizzly
conditions Friday. This activity; i.e. low clouds and drizzle,
should persist through the day today as the shortwave moves into the
Southern Plains before tracking to the northeast later in the
weekend. This should keep light rain and/or drizzle going across
much of the forecast area for today, though temperatures shouldn`t
be too bad as southerly winds should lift everyone`s highs into at
least the 50s --with "around 60" possible south of the Missouri
River--. Far northwest Missouri and a bit of adjacent northeast
Kansas might not have the rain or drizzle, but clouds should be a
ubiquitous factor for everyone today. Did add in isolated thunder
fro areas or west central Missouri into central Missouri based on
some limited instability noted aloft that may result in a few
rumbles of thunder, especially with any of the afternoon activity.
Have kept the highest POPs focused on Saturday night through Sunday
across the eastern half of our forecast area as wind trajectories
look to carry the focus for lift and moisture transport across
southern Missouri into eastern Missouri. Otherwise, have kept
categorical POPs in through the daylight hours of Sunday, but
quickly start moving the precipitation out Sunday night as dry cold
air will begin sweeping in behind the cold front that will move
across Kansas and Missouri during the later half Sunday. However,
have continued to be stingy with the mixed or frozen precipitation
potential on the back side of this exiting system as the cold air
looks to move slowly enough to allow precipitation to end before
temperatures fall enough to freeze anything.

The work week...Cold air will be busy sweeping back into the region
Monday into Tuesday as an energetic Pacific shortwave trough digs
in across the center of the Nation, carving out a large trough which
will allow some cold Canadian air to filter south early in the work
week. This will push prevailing condition back below normal for the
work week. A reinforcing cold front will help push temperatures down
even more Wednesday into Thursday as a quick clipper like system zips
through the northwest flow. This might result in a potential for some
light precipitation Wednesday. Have kept some silent slight chance
POPs going for parts of the forecast area Tuesday night into
Wednesday for this, but confidence is low due to typical timing
issues with the northwest flow.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Surface conditions beginning to degrade as moisture from the south
continues to work its way north. Will see the onset of fog
development during the overnight hours initiating IFR ceilings with
a period of LIFR ceiling heights shortly thereafter. Not much
anticipated in the way of precipitation other than light drizzle
coupled with the fog. IFR ceilings expected to persist throughout the
morning while increased chances of precipitation will commence in the




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