Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KEAX 252052
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
352 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 351 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

Tonight - Tuesday Night:

A decaying mid level vorticity max over south central KS and it`s
associated convective debris cloud cover will slide southeast while
the cloud cover gradually decreases. Surface high pressure from the
Central Plains into IA shifts east with light northeast winds
allowing somewhat drier air to at least work its way into northern
MO over the next 24 hours. In a nutshell expect benign and somewhat
less humid weather tonight through Tuesday night.

As the surface high continues east weak southerly return flow will
commence over the Central Plains and MO Tuesday night. Have
introduced low chance PoPs over the far southern CWA for late
Tuesday night as operational models hint at elevated convection via
isentropic ascent on the 310K surface.

Wednesday - Monday:

The large dome of high pressure aloft which was parked over the
central U.S. will have completed its reformation process over the
western U.S. early in the period. An upper trough positioned over
southeast Canada will result in northwest flow being generated
between the two systems from the southern Canadian Rockies through
the OH and TN Valleys for most of this period. As is often the case
a number of nebulous weak shortwaves/impulses will be embedded
within this flow which the operational models struggle on
timing/location. Lacking a discernible surface front have accepted
the model blend of broadbrush painting PoPs in most every 12 hour
period with the expectation that we`ll better define the rain
chances as one of these features becomes better resolved by the
models.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

Area of showers from eastern KS into west central MO is quickly
drying up and don`t expect more than sprinkles for the first few
hours of the afternoon. Of more importance is an area of MVFR
ceilings from west central into central MO which should exit the
region by mid to late afternoon.

Extensive convective cloud debris with ceilings aoa 15k ft stretching
from central KS through east central MO will gradually thin/dissipatethrough
the afternoon and early evening hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions with
light winds.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...MJ
Aviation...MJ


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.