Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 231701
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1201 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...Moderate to heavy rainfall expected this holiday weekend...

Continued concern for the short-term portion of the forecast
period remains the moderate to heavy rainfall threat tonight
through Sunday. Copious amounts of moisture will be advecting into
the region throughout the day, thanks to southerly flow
transporting it unimpeded from the GoMex. For today, mid-level dry
air will keep precip chances in the isolated to scattered
category, slowly ramping up this evening into the overnight hours
as that dry air erodes. Model soundings tonight through tomorrow
are rather reminiscent of warm, tropicalesque processes at play,
setting the stage for efficient rain producers. PWAT values flirt
with upper-end percentiles based on climatology, as they exceed an
inch and a half through late Sunday. Current indications for rain
totals beginning tonight through Monday morning have widespread
amounts exceeding 1.25" to ~1.75", with higher amounts
particularly possible across east-central KS and west-central MO,
potentially reaching upwards of 2.5", with locally higher amounts
everywhere possible. As such, the Flash Flood Watch issued
yesterday remains valid, with just a trim temporally to the tail
end of it.

The reason for the trim is the drier air that is expected to move
in on Monday, assisting to significantly lower widespread precip
chances for the holiday. However, just as many mark this holiday
weekend as the unofficial start to summer, the meteorological models
seem to follow suit with day after day of storm chances throughout
much of the mid- to long-range forecast. Perturbation after
perturbation, ripple after ripple in the upper pattern spells a
prolonged period of unsettled weather but at this time, it`s not
the type of scenario where the entire forecast period is a
washout, but rather just renewed chances existing each day with
warm, moist air in place for these disturbances to work with.

As already alluded to, temperatures will be warmer for the entire
forecast period as compared to what the highs have been for the
last few days. While highs today will still struggle to reach out
of the 60s for many locations, particularly in the western half of
the forecast area, 70s beginning tomorrow through next week should
be easy to come by, with widespread 80s making an appearance at
the very least on Wednesday and Thursday. Sixties for low temps
will dominate throughout the entire forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1152 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Precipitation will continue to develop to the west and work its way
over the terminal sites through the late afternoon and evening hours.
Initially, could see some spotty showers as activity over
southeastern Kansas moves to the northeast. The main area of concern
is development currently over central Kansas which will affect the
local area this evening, with diminishing conditions expected after
midnight. IFR ceilings are likely during this time, with IFR
visibilities not out of question. Veering southeasterly winds could
gust to 25 kts as this activity crosses the region. Precipitation
will then continue through Sunday afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     morning FOR MOZ012>014-020>023-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-
     054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...Welsh





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