Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 242036
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
336 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 335 PM CDT SAT JUN 24 2017

Another day of pleasant conditions were in place this afternoon with
surface high pressure in control. With high pressure around through
the weekend, tranquil weather with below normal temperatures will
continue tonight into Sunday. Weak isentropic ascent coupled with a
series of weak shortwaves embedded in the upper trough will result
in chances for shallow elevated convection beginning Monday morning
lasting through Monday evening. Weak instability gradually increases
during the day on Monday, but no hazardous weather is expected
outside a few lightning strikes. With the additional cloud cover and
scattered precipitation, highs on Monday may be a few degrees cooler
in the middle 70s, nearly 10 degrees below normal. Lee trough forms
across the High Plains Tuesday into Wednesday, returning southerly
winds and moisture back into the region, with moderating
temperatures.

A more active period is anticipated mid-week into the weekend. The
last few iterations of model runs have suggested a parade of
stronger shortwave troughs in advance of a larger western trough.
With increasing upper ascent and a return of deeper moisture,
conditions will become more conducive for thunderstorm chances.
There remains modest model spread regarding timing of the waves, but
general theme will be to anticipate chances for thunderstorms each
period Wednesday into next weekend.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT SAT JUN 24 2017

VFR conditions expected through the period. Weakness in surface
winds will occur this evening and overnight with slight backing. An
increase in mid-level clouds anticipated overnight into Sunday.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Blair
Aviation...Blair



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