Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 281951
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
251 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 249 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Upper pattern forecast to continue to amplify over the next several
days as heights build in the western US and upper trough digs into
the Great Lakes. This will leave the forecast area in general
northwest flow and keep temperatures below normal for the week.

Diurnal heating and cold air advection have let to extensive CU/SC
field rotating into forecast area from the north this afternoon
keeping temperatures in check. Will see some normal nocturnal
dissipation of the cloud cover tonight, but would expect similar
daytime cloud development tomorrow and Wednesday particularly over
north central and northeast Missouri. In general persistence forecast
for temperatures appears to be the best way to go for the next couple
of days.

Models advertising weak upper wave to rotate down the lee side of the
western US ridge on Wednesday. The bulk of the precipitation with
this features is expected to remain to the south and west of the
forecast area, but the system may pass close enough to provide an
increase in cloud cover over west central Missouri and eastern
central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Thursday - Friday night:

Cool conditions will continue as the persistent amplified pattern of
upper level ridging over the western CONUS and upper level troughing
over the eastern CONUS continues. This will continue to leave the
local area under cool NW flow aloft. As such temperatures will
remain below normal with highs in the low to mid 80s. Some of the
medium range models hint at an upper level shortwave may bring a few
showers and thunderstorms to the area so have kept inherited slight
chance POPs for Friday and Friday night.

Saturday - Sunday:

The pattern begins to shift on Saturday as the upper level trough
over the eastern CONUS begins to weaken and northwest flow relaxes
across the area. There will be height rises across the area but the
chance of another shortwave moving into the area will bring
additional cloud cover and another slight chance of thunderstorms.
This will help keep highs in the low to mid 80s. Sunday, continued
height rises and sunny skies will help temperatures rise a degree or
two.

Monday:

The upper level ridge across the western CONUS will begin to slide
eastward and impinge on the region. This will allow temperatures to
continue to rise into the early part of the work week. Highs will
rise into the mid to upper 80s...which is a return to normal for the
beginning of August.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

MVFR cigs are affecting MCI and STJ as this TAF issuance. These MVFR
cigs will cont thru 19Z when diurnal lifting of the cu deck will
occur and lift just above MVFR with bkn clouds btn 3-4kft. Cu will
diminish this evening and skies will become clr around sunset. Winds
will be out of the N btn 5-10kts before becmg lgt and vrb tonight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mitchell
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...73





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