Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 221943
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
143 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 143 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2017

A mid level trough which has been responsible for severe weather
outbreaks along the Gulf Coast this weekend continues to churn away
over western Mississippi as it moves eastward across the Gulf states
this afternoon. The main synoptic forcing from this trough passed
well to the south of the forecast area for any real consequence to
us, but there has been some light rain along the northern edge of
the better lift over southern and central Missouri. This light rain
brought around a quarter to half inch of moisture to areas mainly
south of I-70, with some areas north of I-70 getting some minor
amounts. A surface ridge is currently located off to the west of the
forecast area, and that will eventually move in tonight. Expect some
low stratus to move in just behind the leading edge of the ridge,
defined as a cold front. Ceilings around 500 to 1000 feet are being
noted in observations upstream of the area, so these low clouds will
likely hold on through the rest of the afternoon and into the
overnight hours. Expecting some gradual clearing tonight as the
ridge becomes more established over the area. As the ridge gets
established the pressure gradient at the surface will weaken and
winds will be mostly calm overnight, perhaps in the 3 to 5 mph
range. Should the skies clear out in response to the ridge moving in
the weak winds will allow for some radiation fog to form during the
overnight hours. Should some mid or high clouds hang in there
overnight there might be just enough prevention of longwave
radiation loss to keep fog at bay. That being said, it appears to be
a fairly favorable set up for at least some areas to see fog with
some patches of dense fog.

The first part of the week looks to be rather quiet, but by mid week
another weather maker moves into the Central and Northern Plains.
This trough will probably not bring much in the way of high impacts
for this area, but as the system moves acorss upper Midwest and
Great Lakes region it could bring portions of northern Missouri some
light rain/snow mix through the middle part of the upcoming week. At
this time no notable accumulations of either rain or snow are
expected, but it could bring some light moisture to areas north of I-
70. After that brief period of active weather another prolonged
quiet stretch is in store for the region through the rest of the
week and into next weekend.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1201 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2017

Trick in the short term is how the stratus works its way into the
area. KSTJ has been IFR for a couple hours now, but upstream CIGs
are a bit higher. Went ahead and kept them MVFR, but could go IFR
for a short time. Then the improvement overnight could lead to
some brief fog in the morning. SREF guidance wasn`t overly
convincing, but with the surface ridge moving over head, clear
skies, felt that the set up was fairly conducive to some light
fog. Could see some brief periods of IFR VIS within the longer
duration MVFR/VFR fog.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Leighton
Aviation...Leighton


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