Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 272056
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
356 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 309 PM CDT THU APR 27 2017

Returns on radar are beginning to approach the western portions of
the forecast area, although it`s questionable how much of these
returns are actually reaching the ground. That said though, there
are increasing precip chances this evening as a narrow vort max
rotates through eastern KS and western MO. Very good model
consensus exists for this initial round of precip associated with
the aforementioned vort max to come through the western portions
of the forecast area. For the pre-dawn hours through at least
midday tomorrow, look for more widespread precip chances as a trough
axis rotates through. While precip chances will probably persist
for much of the day in northern MO on Friday, the southern third
or so of the forecast area looks to be primarily dry before the
moderate to heavy rain moves in overnight Friday into Sunday. For
more info regarding rainfall amounts and potential impacts, see
the Hydrology section below.

Jet structure this afternoon through tomorrow is allowing for
moisture to advect in straight from the Pacific. This copious
source of moisture, coupled with an amplifying trough and
subsequent cyclogenesis on the leeside of the Rockies will set the
stage for a long-duration of moderate to potentially heavy rain
to fall near and within the local forecast area. The low pressure
system is then forecast to traverse across the region on Sunday,
taking precip with it out of the forecast area on Monday.
However, could still see sporadic rain chances into the middle of
next week as the region remains locked in an unsettled pattern,
although forecast confidence drops off by this point due to the
model spread.

As for temperatures, we`ll see quite the gradient from north to
south tomorrow as warm air is able to advect into the southern
two-thirds of the forecast area but with cloud cover likely
lingering across northern MO, locations near the IA/NE borders
will have temps maxing out in the lower 50s. By Saturday though,
the entire area will remain well below normal for late April
thanks to the rain and cloud cover, looking to persist into Sunday
as well. As we get into next week, look for some warming to return
but at this point, little indication of temps exceeding normal for
this time of year.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT THU APR 27 2017

While VFR conditions will prevail for the remainder of the
afternoon, increasing ceilings along with rain chances enter into
the terminal areas by this evening, perhaps lowering visbys as
well. By the pre-dawn hours on Friday, at least IFR ceilings will
likely be in the area, impacting aviation interests through at
least midday tomorrow. Look for the better rain chances to
directly impact the terminals during the early to mid-morning time
frame on Friday.

&&

.Hydrology...
Issued at 309 PM CDT THU APR 27 2017

With respect to QPF for this weekend`s system, there is some model
spread and subsequently, uncertainty in just how far north some of
the heaviest rainfall amounts will reach. Given model trends,
current thinking is that the higher rainfall amounts will remain
south of U.S. Hwy 24 but can`t rule out the possibility of
northwest MO and perhaps into portions of the Kansas City metro
area seeing some locally high amounts. Widespread rainfall amounts
tonight through midday Monday look to be in the two to three inch
range with potentially locally higher amounts possible,
particularly in the watch area. Much of this rain will fall on
Saturday into Saturday night, which is the time frame to keep a
close eye on the flooding potential. Antecedent ground conditions
could easily exacerbate the flooding potential. Regarding possible
impacts, while flash flooding is a possibility within the watch
area, this is more of a long-duration event in which area rivers,
creeks, streams, low-water crossings, etc. will feel the brunt of
it all. For those residing near these locations, it is highly
recommended to keep a close eye on river forecasts as the weekend
approaches.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flash Flood Watch from Friday evening through Sunday evening for
     KSZ057-060.

MO...Flash Flood Watch from Friday evening through Sunday evening for
     MOZ039-040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

Discussion...lg
Aviation...lg
Hydrology...lg


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