Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 190838
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
338 AM CDT Tue May 19 2015
Forecast remains on track with cooler temperatures today as surface
high pressure slides into the area from Canada. Winds will remain out
of the north ushering in the drier cool air through the day today.
By tonight...an upper low situated over the Nevada/Utah border will
slowly move east and turn our flow more cyclonic. This means more
moisture will move towards the southern plains as the Gulf opens up
tonight. Expect showers to move into the area after midnight. While
there may be a rumble or two of thunder overnight and into
Wednesday...no severe storms are expected given the lack of
instability and dynamics as the trough fills as it moves closer.
Wednesday...temperatures will remain cool...in the 50s with lingering
showers until afternoon or evening.
Thursday and Friday will be drier and a little warmer as upper ridge
moves over the region and low level flow swings around to from the
south. Later in the afternoon or evening yet another shortwave trough
will edge out of the west and bring another round of showers and
thunderstorms over the beginning of the Memorial Day weekend. This
next system has better chances for thunderstorms given a deeper
trough...better instability and shear parameters as well. A little
too early to have a lot of confidence in whether severe storms will
form...however...given the previous rains...some localized flooding
is possible over the weekend. Specifically...if the model solutions
pan out there is a good chance that a decent nocturnal jet will form
over central Kansas and with copious moisture from the gulf and
meridional flow...some training cells could mean additional flooding
Saturday into late Sunday night.
Memorial Day...we remain in cyclonic upper flow but best dynamics
head up to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley so there could be a break
in the showers until the next potential shortwave moves into the
plains Monday night. Temperatures over the end of the week and into
the weekend will be a little closer to normal...upper 60s to middle 70s.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1058 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015
VFR conditions expected through the forecast. Clear skies tonight and
tomorrow morning will give way to increasing high level clouds ahead
of large area of precipitation expected to move in from the west.
This will eventually lead to low VFR clouds late in the forecast but
for now it looks like the precipitation will move in after 06Z
tomorrow, so have kept this forecast dry.