Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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620
FXUS63 KEAX 290837
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
337 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

A MCS pushed into the southern portion of the CWA overnight creating
some residual PoPs over the SE portion of the CWA, but is expected to
dissipate before sunrise. A weak cold frontal boundary over the IA/MO
border will push to the south creating just enough forcing for some
isolated showers and non-severe thunderstorms to form over the western
CWA. This boundary and associated upper level short wave will move
into southern MO by late morning setting the stage for where
thunderstorm development will occur Friday afternoon. Most forcing
and surface moisture needed for convective development will stay
near this boundary leading to the southern counties of the CWA being
effected by thunderstorms. There will be weak SBCAPE
(700-1000J/kg) and decent 0-6km shear (40-45kts) so there is
the possibility of an isolated severe cell developing. A weak
upper level short wave and surface trough will push into the NE
portion of the CWA Friday afternoon also resulting in a chance for
isolated non-severe thunderstorm development.

The boundary over southern MO remains stationary for most of Saturday
keeping any chance for showers or thunderstorms over the southern
counties of the CWA. Overnight Saturday, the boundary begins to lift
back towards the NE as a warm frontal boundary with a low level jet
developing over SE KS. This boundary will be the best bet for any
widespread precipitation as it moves through the CWA. The elevated
convection is not expected to be severe, with weak MUCAPE in place
over the region as the boundary pushes through. The boundary
will continue to push to the NE Sunday afternoon with another round
of convection expected over the NE portion of the CWA. Multiple
rounds of convection may occur over this region through Tuesday as
the boundary stalls in a NW-SE orientation. This may bring some much
needed rainfall to the NE region of the CWA.

Ridging will start to build into the region Monday on the backside of
the frontal boundary increasing heights and temperatures. With
a persistent southerly flow Mon-Fri the temperatures increase back
into the low to mid 90s with dewpoints in the low 70s. Heat Index
values of 100-105F for most of next week are looking more and more
likely with little relief until next weekend.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

Showers are dying as they move into and through the aviation sites
overnight. Expect them to be cleared out of the terminals by the time
the forecast takes effect. Short term models hinting at some marginal
reduced VSBY at KSTJ, KMCI, and KIXD. There could be a couple hours
of 6 to 10 SM VSBY during the sunrise hours, but with lingering
clouds and perhaps winds staying up around 5 mph confidence is low in
any fog forming.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Barham
Aviation...Leighton



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