Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 270503

1203 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

Issued at 1108 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Added mention of patchy fog potential across much of northern MO late
tonight/early tomorrow morning. Light to calm winds, low dewpoint
depressions, and recent rains indicate a possibility for some fog to
develop. Otherwise, rest of the forecast looks to remain on track.


Issued at 431 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

Tonight - Tuesday:

In the very short term, will monitor the band of cu over the
southern CWA where the remnants of an old outflow boundary lie.
Moisture is pooled along this boundary and can`t rule out an
isolated storm popping up between now and sunset. Otherwise, looks
like we`re done with the pesky nocturnal convection for the next
couple days. Water vapor satellite imagery shows the Southern
Rockies/Southern Plains upper high/ridge axis is nudging/building
northward with the corresponding plume of subtropical mid/high level
moisture swirling more into NE and heading towards southern SD and
IA vs northern KS/southern IA/northern MO. In addition, don`t see
any discernible frontal boundaries to help initiate new convection.

So, a dry forecast and lack of convective debris and associated
outflow boundaries leaves the door open for the the oppressive heat
and humidity to spread across the entire CWA on Monday. Did notice
some slightly drier dewpoints in the upper 60s/lower 70s have worked
eastward into eastern KS and this appears it will sneak into the far
western CWA on Monday and probably again on Tuesday. To offset that
expect to see slightly warmer temperatures. With Monday marking the
4th consecutive day with heat indices reaching or forecast to reach
advisory criteria from the KC Metro area southward will upgrade that
region to an Excessive Heat Warning and issue a Heat Advisory for
the rest of the CWA. Will hold off on extending headlines into
Tuesday as it`s a bit more complicated owing to a cold front
approaching northwest MO in the afternoon and uncertainty as to how
far east these "drier" dewpoints will spread east.

Tuesday night - Wednesday:

Falling mid/upper level heights due to an upper trough tracking east
across the northern portions of the continental U.S. will allow a
cold front to press southward through the central U.S. While
scattered convection will likely develop along this cold front a
lack of upper level support will mean low level convergence will
need to be the main driver. Despite that, high precipitable water
values in excess of 2 inches tied to the front could result in some
locally heavy rainfall with the storms. Some lingering morning
convection over the southern CWA before the front pushes into
southern MO.

Thursday - Sunday:

The aforementioned northern U.S. upper trough is progged to rotate
into eastern Canada with the Plains upper high retrograding into the
Southern Plateau and intermountain region. This will result in
northwest flow with its typical embedded weak shortwaves/vorticity
maxima to drive one nuts. Timing/location of these features this far
out is fruitless so for now slight chance and low chance PoPs
(mainly for the northern CWA) is the preferred way to play it. On
the plus side this period should see more seasonal temperatures with
highs in the mid/upper 80s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

With the exception of STJ, VFR conditions are likely to continue to
prevail throughout the TAF period. Conditions appear to be favorable
for fog development in and around STJ in the pre-dawn to dawn hours
as winds will be light to calm and low-level moisture will be
abundant with mostly clear skies overhead. Southerly winds will
dominate tomorrow with some mid- to upper-level clouds streaming
through, and perhaps a fair-weather CU field developing in the
afternoon, diminishing after dark.


KS...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for KSZ025-102.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for KSZ057-

MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for MOZ001>008-

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for MOZ028-



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