Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 291755
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1255 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015
Issued at 321 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015
This last few isolated showers from last nights scattered convection
are diminishing early this morning. As such, dry conditions can be
expected through the rest of Saturday morning albeit under cloudy
skies. This morning a slow moving cold front extends from Des Moines
to Lawrence. This front will continue to progress slowly eastward
through the day today. Temperatures out ahead of the cold front will
rise into the low 80s which may provide for enough instability for
scattered thunderstorm development in the afternoon despite very
weak forcing. Perhaps the better potential for scattered
thunderstorm development will be due to a vort max moving through
the area late this afternoon and evening. With these couple features
affecting the area this afternoon/evening, have slight chance POPs
over the eastern CWA. Surface high pressure should then begin to
build into the area Saturday night providing for drier conditions.
On Sunday, an upper level ridge currently residing over the eastern
Rockies and western High Plains will begin to shift east into the
area. This will help temperatures warm into the mid 80s on Sunday.
This upper level ridge is then expected to remain over the area
Monday and Tuesday with increased warm air advection. Expect highs
on both days to rise into the upper 80s to near 90. Both the EC and
GFS indicate a shortwave flattening out the ridge in the Tuesday
night through Wednesday time frame which will provide the best
chance for precipitation in the extended period. However, despite
the shortwave flattening the ridge temporarily it is expected to
build right back over the area by Thursday keeping conditions warm.
in fact, temperatures by the end of next week are expected to remain
in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015
Trend in visible satellite imagery, surface obs and low-level
moisture fields favor a slow improvement in ceilings but remaining
MVFR north of a IRK to MCI line with VFR ceilings south of this line
through the early evening hours.
Don`t see much change in the airmass over the region for the next 24
hours and losing confidence that clouds will scatter out this
afternoon except over central MO. TOP sounding showed a pretty stout
frontal inversion and low level moisture will likely remain trapped
beneath it. With that in mind will trend lower on ceilings tonight
and drop them to IFR and borderline LIFR across northern and west
central MO. Anywhere where clouds can scatter out late tonight will
have to entertain dense fog. Ceilings will improve after sunrise and
expect ceilings to improve faster than today.