Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 211737

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1237 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016

Issued at 322 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

Short term (Today through Friday night):

The main story in the short term will continue to be the above
normal temperatures. However, we do expect today to be a few degrees
cooler then yesterday with highs in the upper 80s to near 90. This
will be due in part to the upper level ridge that had built over the
area beginning to flatten. A upper level shortwave, evident over the
southern Rockies, on satellite imagery will move into the central
Plains today and cause the ridge to flatten. It will also push an
associated surface front into the central Plains today. Models
develop storms along this front in central Nebraska this evening as
a southwesterly LLJ gets ramped up. There is a minor discrepancy as
to where the nose of the LLJ will be focused with the GFS nosing it
into southeastern Nebraska but the NAM being further north into east
central Nebraska. This subtle difference will be the deciding factor
if the northwestern CWA does or does not get precipitation tonight
into tomorrow morning. Consequently, have slight chance PoPs across
the northwestern CWA late tonight into tomorrow morning. Tomorrow,
the cold front that began sinking towards the CWA Wednesday night,
stalls as it`s attendant upper shortwave weakens. It will then lift
northward as a warm front on Thursday. The local CWA will be firmly
in the warm sector and capped keeping conditions hot and dry.
Expect highs in the mid to upper 80s. Friday will be similar to
Thursday with the area remaining in the warm sector and shortwave
ridging building into the area ahead of an approaching deep upper
level trough which will be our weekend weather maker. Expect highs
again in the upper 80s.

Medium Range (Saturday through Tuesday):

Saturday, a deep upper level trough will slowly emerge from the
Rockies into the western Plains with a surface cold front across the
central Plains. Thunderstorms are expected to develop west of the
area along the front and move into the area Saturday afternoon. This
will be round of one of what could be a prolonged rain event due to
the slow moving nature of this system. The upper trough Saturday
night through Sunday night will only move from the western Plains to
the eastern Plains. This will push a slow moving cold front across
the CWA late Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. PWAT values are
in the 1.60"-2.00" range during this timeframe. So, due to the slow
propagation of the system with very high PWAT values, flooding is a

As we get into the Sunday night/Monday time period, model solutions
begin to diverge. The GFS closes a low in the trough across the
Upper Midwest but the front is east of the area and thus
precipitation stays east of the CWA. The EC on the other hand holds
some of the energy of the upper trough back across the western
Plains where it closes off a low in the base of the trough across
western Kansas. The EC solutions would prolong rain chances through
Monday and Tuesday. However, in either case temperatures would
return to more seasonable readings with highs from around 70 into
the mid 70s.


.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

VFR and dry conditions through the forecast period. Small chance for
isolated convection late tonight/early Thursday morning which could
graze far northwest MO.




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