Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 261146

546 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

Issued at 431 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Post holiday weather across eastern Kansas and Missouri today will
start rather nice, but will deteriorate overnight with cooler
temperatures then prevailing through weekend into next week. Early
morning water vapor imagery shows a pronounced trough swinging
through the Four Corners region inducing a pleasant southwest flow
across the Southern and Central Plains. Another shortwave trough is
noted dropping south out of Alberta. Locally, the southwest flow has
helped set up a baroclinic zone just to our northwest, from eastern
Nebraska back into southwest Kansas.

Today through Saturday...the two troughs, the Four Corners and
Alberta, will begin to phase over the next 24 hours as the Alberta
trough drops into and interacts with the broader amplified pattern.
This will likely tighten up the baroclinic zone just to our
northwest today and tonight, with a strong possibility of snow
developing along and north of the front tonight. However, given the
positive tilt to the large Four Corners trough, we do not expect
this front to make any progress east until late tonight as a surface
low tracks northeast along the front. So, areas in central
Missouri back into east central Kansas will likely get another day
of pleasant temperatures out of this weather pattern with highs in
the 50s, but the far northwest corner of Missouri, and adjacent
areas of northeast Kansas, wont be so lucky as afternoon highs will
likely top out near 40 degrees. As for precipitation...saturation
sufficient to start forcing drops from the sky will likely begin
this afternoon, with patchy drizzle possible, but significant rain
chances will likely wait till late this afternoon or this evening as
the Alberta system merges with the larger trough, getting swept up
by the southwest flow. Have continued to be rather stingy with the
potential for snow overnight as model soundings and forecast surface
temperatures would not appear to support much, if any, snow outside
the extreme northwest corner of Missouri. Do have about an inch of
accumulation in a county or two in the far northwest of Missouri,
but do not expect any significant snow accumulations outside of
that. Otherwise, the cold front and the precipitable weather with
this system should be exiting to our east Saturday morning and
should take any lingering potential for precipitation with it by
noon Saturday.

Rest of the weekend and next work week...temperatures will be cool
and conditions will be dry. The Four Corners trough will finely
move east of us Sunday, resulting in a bit of locally zonal flow to
begin the work week with. This will allow the cool air that swept in
behind the front Saturday to linger across the region, keeping
conditions cool for the weekend and into the work week. However, our
cool temperatures will become down right cold by Tuesday and
Wednesday as a reinforcing shot of cold sweeps south from the
Canadian Plains. With a 1050+mb high forecast to sweep down the
front range of the Rockies next week, thoughts are that it will be
cold. Currently, model solutions point at Tuesday being the coldest
day next week, but it might be a toss-up with Wednesday, with highs
on those days ranging in the teens and 20s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 546 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Southerly winds and VFR conditions will great the terminals today,
though a cold front near by will provide focus for rain and possibly
a little snow overnight into Saturday morning. Patchy drizzle will
likely develop this afternoon as the atmosphere saturates, with rain
developing later in the evening and overnight hours as a front slowly
settles farther south into Missouri. Precipitation types may mix
between rain and snow late tonight and early Saturday morning; though
the only terminal forecast to have all snow is the fare north KSTJ
site with no accumulations expected at this time.




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