Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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491
FXUS63 KEAX 200809
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
309 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 309 AM CDT WED SEP 20 2017

A cold front is very evident on radar this morning displaying itself
as a fine line from eastern Nebraska through north central Kansas
and into southwestern Kansas. This front will continue to sag
towards the area moving slowly into northwest Missouri by late this
morning. This front will remain nearly stationary through the
afternoon with the main upper level forcing well north across the
Canadian Plains. This will lead to another warm day across the area
with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Late this afternoon/this
evening, models are all developing scattered convection along this
front due to deeper moisture spreading into the region as well as
the increase of a albeit diffuse southwesterly LLJ. Although forcing
and shear will be weak, a few strong to isolated severe storms can
not be ruled out this evening due to very unstable conditions on the
order of 3000-4000J/Kg of MUCAPE. Scattered convection is expected
to continue through the overnight hours into Thursday morning when
the LLJ becomes focused north of the area.

Thursday through Sunday will be warm and dry as a upper level ridge
east of the region retrogrades westward into the local area. Highs
will be in the mid 80s to lower 90s through this period.

Sunday night through Tuesday we will see a return to a unsettled
pattern. Sunday, a upper level trough will move from the Inter-
mountain West into the eastern Rockies. This will force an attendant
cold front into the Plains. Storms are expected to develop west of
the area Sunday afternoon and move eastward into the area Sunday
night. The upper trough will then slowly move from the eastern
Rockies into the western Plains through Monday and Tuesday. This
will bring the chance for several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. The aforementioned cold front will move through the
area on Tuesday and temperatures will return to near or even
slightly below normal with highs in the 70s.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT WED SEP 20 2017

Mainly VFR conditions but some concern Wednesday morning after
sunrise for layer of near MVFR clouds to develop. These clouds may
remain for a chunk of the day, with heights gradually lifting.
Otherwise gusty southerly winds will continue overnight before
speeds relax around sunrise, setting up some potential for LLWS
overnight. A cold front will approach STJ near sunset and have
included thunderstorm potential in forecast. Front stalls and
probability for thunderstorms in southern terminal space less
certain.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...Blair



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